kickingbets

Bahrain Gran Prix - Lay Vettel at 1-2 for Podium Finisl

2010-03-14T10:29:00.004Z

In the final qualifying session, the leading drivers opted for super soft Bridgestone tyres to optimize their grid position. This could well compromise their race performance as the preference for the race would be to run with these tyres when you have lightetst fuel at the end of the race (no refuelling allowed this year).

The Red Bull is especially hard on it's tyres and it could suffer particularly badly in this area during the race. With Ferrari have a stronger race pace, Vettel looks to be a very shaky odds on chance for a podium finish. I'm laying him at 1-2.

Bahrain Grand Prix Qualifying - Sauber to spring a suprise

2010-03-11T21:25:00.003Z

Sauber have looked competitive in testing, not far off the 'big four' teams of Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren. If they opt to go with soft compound tyes in qualifying they have a very real chance of springing a suprise. I've had 2pts at 66/1 on each of the Sauber drivers to qualify in P1.

Reduced voter turnout in GE 2010 (Part 2)

2010-02-28T14:25:00.004Z

Those who read my blog regularly will know I'm convinced that nationally we will have a low turnout. I backed this earlier this year by placing a bet on a turnout of 55% to 60% turnout at 7/1 (20 pts).

Since then Polling eveidence from COMRES stated that

- 44 per cent said they were "absolutely certain" to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were "certain not to vote", compared with 11 per cent five years ago indicating a low turnout.

- When posed with the statement "I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close", 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. This would indicate a higher turnout.

I believe this polling evidence has supported my analysis (I think the first piece of evidence above outweighs the second) and the bookies agree. They have now moved 55-60% into 5/1. I've decided to have an additional bet at 12-1 (12 pts) on under 55% at Ladbrokes - I'd hate to be more right than I expected and lose

For another view on the turnout, Mike Smithson has written a piece for politicalbetting.com - he disagrees with me, but it is worth reading for a contrary view to mine.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/17/the-great-turnout-quandary/

Will Mourinho storm on (and off)....?

2010-02-24T17:58:00.004Z

After the Mouurinho press conference, I've a 'gut' feeling that Mourinho may decide to make a spectacle of himself by not shaking hands with Ancelloti. I'm backing this 'hunch' with bets on the following markets at William Hill:

What Will Mourinho Do First Against Chelsea? Leave pitch after match - 2pts @ 25/1
Mourinho & Ancelotti to fail to shake hands after either leg? No, 2pts @ 16/1

Arsenal for Premership - lay back original stake for 'all green position'

2010-02-20T08:48:00.002Z

I still think Arsenal are reasonable value in the Prem 2009/2010 market, but I've decided to take a prudent approach to this market (i.e. less risky) and lay back my origial stake to leave me with an 'all green' position.

Another account gets limited.....Skybet... read this email exchange (from the bottom up!)

2010-02-01T20:08:00.004Z

Hi Chris
Thanks for your email.I have spoken to our traders and they have decided to up your scale factor to 5%, this is the highest they are willing to increase this to.
Kind Regards,
Skybet
____________________________

Dear Skybet,
Thank you for your email.I was previously restricted to 1% of stakes of other customers when placing bets online. Can you confirm if this restriction has now been fully removed i.e if I can place the same size stakes as other customers online? Thanks.
Regards.
Chris Trinder
____________________________

Hi Chris
Thanks for your email.Yes you should be able to get the same stakes online as you previously have been able to get via the phone.
Kind Regards,
Skybet
_______________________

Dear Skybet
Thank you for your reply. Can you confirm if I will be able to get the same stake sizes online as I have been previously able to get by phones. In the past I have been restricted online to 1% of the stakes other customers are able to place.
Regards.
Chris Trinder
______________________

Hi Chris
Thanks for your reply.You are among a group of customer who are less profitable to the company, therefore our trading team have taken the decision to only accept online business from you.I apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Skybet
___________________________

Dear Skybet,
Can you explain why this decision to not allow me to bet my telephone has been taken? If this for all customers or just myself?
Regards.
Chris Trinder
___________________________

Dear Mr Trinder,
We have made some changes to our service. With regret we have taken the business decision to stop your access to our telebet service. As such, from today your account has been set up to accept online bets only, which means that if you call our call centre you will be directed to either www.skybet.com, www.skybet.mobi or our interactive TV service to place your bets. You will only be able to place whatever the system indicates is the maximum stake for your chosen selection.

You can log on to the services with your existing user ID and a PIN. If you don?t already have a PIN or need a reminder, please contact a member of our Customer Care team on 08000 725181.
Skybet

F1 Pre-season - Day 1 Testing & Pre season bets

2010-02-01T19:03:00.003Z

In the first day of testing today Massa in the Ferrari topped the timing chances, but Schumacher was competitive in the Mercedes, outperforming his team-mate Rosberg (albeit in different conditions). I've taken a look at the outright markets for the F1 Championship, and I think bwin.com are taking a chance on the some of the drivers. These are the ones who they perceive to be the 'weaker' drivers in the lineups. I think the price difference between the 'stronger' and 'weaker' drivers is too large (and the UK bookmakers agree). I've added bets (max. allowed) on these drivers to my bet on Michael Schumacher at 7/1 for 5+ race wins.

Have the markets over-reacted to Arsenal's weekend loss?

2010-02-01T18:34:00.007Z

I always look for market over-reactions to a loss (or succession of losses). Try as a I might, I can't understand why the bookies have pushed out Arsenal from 9/2 to 12/1 after their loss today.

I still think Chelsea will win the Championship, but I think that it is much more likely that Arsenal will shorten rather than lengthen from the current price of 12/1. I don't think a team mid way through the season who lose to one of their two rivals should lengthen this much.

If the market adjusts to what I believe to be the correct price now (or some time in the future) I'll close out the position.

Murray to beat Federer in a Grand Slam Final 2010 - 16/1 - Totesport - 2.5pts

2010-02-01T18:22:00.003Z

Totesport have opened a market on whether Murray will beat Federer in a Grand Slam Final in 2010. By finishing 2nd in the Australian Open, I think he is likley to be 2nd/3rd seeding in the Grand SLams events (he is now up to 3rd in the ATP rankings). This will mena that he is likley to be dranw to meeet Federer in the final.

Murray is 13/8 to win a Grand SLam eevent (realistically Wimbledon or teh US Open). I can see a Federer/Murray final in either Wimbledon and/or the US Open - they are 1st/2nd favs for both events. If this happens, the 16/1 on Murray beating Federer to win a Grand Slam eevent in 2010 will look big. I've had 2.5 pts (max. allowed) at 16/1.

UK General Election Turnout - 55-60% - 7-1 - 20pts

2010-01-29T17:54:00.004Z

Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have a market on the % voter turnout in the next UK General Election. They have similar prices, but I think the conventional wisdom that the % will increase is wrong.

The problem is that those interested in politics have an understandably different opinion as to how likely people are to vote - they are not a good sample, and it is difficult for them to think what less interested people will do! They (rightly) see this is a critical election. They think that there will be an increased Conservative turnout which will increase the % voting. I think this will be (at least) balanced by the Labour voter 'no shows' with Labour voter dissatisfaction with Gordon Brown. In addition, the turnout will be deflated by the expenses scandal as a general negative for all politicians.

I think the most likely guide to whether a person will vote is if they have voted before (which show, over the past decades, a general decline). Looking at the % figures from the last five elections and taking all the above factors into account, I think we will have a turnout of 55-60%. I've had 20 pts (my max. stake) at 7-1 on this.

Results for 2009

2010-01-16T20:52:00.002Z

Masters - Jimmy White - 6pts 33-1 to win the 3rd Quarter, 1pt E/W 200-1 (1/2 1,2)

2010-01-10T10:19:00.004Z

Jimmy White (via a wildcard entry) returns today to his spiritual home of Wembley. He has shown decent form last year in minor events (winning in Bangkok and Prague (beating Higgins and Dott)). He has a relatively easy draw in the third Quarter and at 33/1 is too big a price to win this quarter. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (at most). It is hard to see him winning the event, but I can't resist 1pt E/W at 200/1.

Scottish FA Cup - Dundee - 4 pts E/W - 66/1- vcbet.com

2010-01-09T12:44:00.002Z

Dundee have had signficant financial investment and are clear leaders of Division One. I think they are great value (E/W) at 1/3 1,2 for the Scottish FA Cup. Other than Rangers and Celtic, no Scotttsih Premiership team has lookked especially impressive this season so there is a real chance (certainly much greater 22/1) that Dundee could make the final (and the 66/1 on the win part is a fair price). The 66/1 (E/W) is availible at several bookies...

FA Cup - Any Non Premiership team to make the Semi Final - 5/2- 8pts - Betfred

2010-01-02T13:21:00.003Z

If you look at he last 20 years, in 11 years Non Premierhsip teams have made the FA Cup semi-finals. With the decreased importance of the FA Cup some teams (Premiership and Championship) may field weakend teams, increasing thr proabilities of larger margin Premiership wins but also Premiserjhip teams exits.

There is no reason the think that the likleihood of a non Premiership side raeching the SemiFinals is any less likely than over the past 20 years.. probably the reverse. I would therefore make this as 4/5 chance... I've had 8 pts at 5/2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FA_Cup_Semi-finals

Jenson Button - SBG GLobal - $200 @ 70-1

2009-12-31T18:35:00.000Z

Some of you may remember this case... I placed a bet of $200 pre season with http://www.sbgglobal.com on Jenson Button at 70-1 for the 2009 F1 Championship. They have now upped their offer from even money ( :) ) to 12-1. I still believe I should be paid at 70-1.

After waiting 2 months to be paid, I've now commenced legal action. It turns out that SBG Global are owned by SBG Euro, a UK company. This should help...below is a copy of the latter I have sent today to SBG Euro (by post and email).

**********************
I have not yet received the $14K USD that I am owed by SBG Global. I have now commenced legal action to ensure I am paid this money. Attached below are scanned copies of documents that have been sent to the registered address for SBG Euro Ltd (of which SBG Global are a wholly owned subsidiary).

You now have 21 days to pay the money owed to me. I suggest this is done by a payment to my VISA credit card. If you not have these details on file, please email me and I can provide these details. Please let me know when I should expect to receive payment.

If I do not receive payment, I file a winding-up petition against SBG Euro Ltd in the UK courts. This petition is a request for the court to make a "compulsory liquidation order". An accountant will then be appointed as a liquidator and sell off SBG Euro's assets to pay the money owed to me.

If you with to contact me, I must insist this done my email to this address rather than by phone.

2010 Specials - Part 2 - William Hill

2009-12-30T10:43:00.004Z

The next bookie's 2010 prices I have reviewed is William Hill. I have managed to come up with 6 bets which I think are value.

1. Michael Schumacher to have 5+ winners in 2010 F1 Championship. - 7-1 - 20pts Win

Schumacher is now a confirmed 'runner' in the 2010 F1 Season for Merecdes (ex Brawn GP). Ross Brawn is a master race tactician and designer. Brawn GP have been working on the 2010 car since mid season 2009 and I believe are likely to be competitive again. (I don't believe Schumacher would have taken this drive if this wasn't the case). Schmacher has stayed fit so I don't think age is an issue - it is more relevent that he is one of the gretest drivers of all time. He has always outerformed his team mates so I am confident he with do the same wih Rosberg.

Schumacher is currently a 5-1 chance for the 2010 F1 Championship. I think of better value is the 7-1 for 5+ wins. There are 19 races in 2010 so he will need to win > approx. 25% of the races. With rules changes for 2010 (no refulleing, narrower tyes) it is possible a single team will make a fast start (like with Brawn in 2009).

If you look at previous seasons, you can see that often more than one driver scores approx > 25% in a season (3 out of the past 5 years). The reverse is not true ie. no driver has won the chmampionship without scoring > 25% wins.

Past Season Reviews (with drivers who makes approx > 25% criteria in bold):
Top 3 Drivers in each Season

No. of Races Driver/Number of Race Wins/% Wins

2009 17 - Button 6, Vettel 4, Barricello 2
2008 18 - Hamilton 5, Massa 6, Raikkonen 3
2007 17 - Raikkonen 6, Hamilton 4, Alonso 4
2006 18 - Alonso 7, Schumacher 7, Massa 2
2005 19 - Alonso 6, Raikkonen 7, Schmuacher 1

This means either the 5-1 on Schmuchaer for the championship is too short or the 7-1 on 5+ wins is too long (I'm betting on the latter as it is a less popular market). Labrokes do a similar market and make it and approx 4-1 chance - I'd make it an approx 3-1 chance.

2. Any England Bowler to take a Test Match Hatrick - 8-1 - 4pts Win

Suprisingly, England bowlers have taken hatricks relatively often in Test matches (past 20 years reviewed) - 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 i.e approx 1 in every 5 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Test_cricket_hat-tricks

There is a reasonable test program this year (inclusing 2 x test series against Bangladesh) so there is no reason to think this year will have any different chance. BlueSq are going 9/2, a much more accurate price.

3. A European trained winner of the Melbourne Cup 8-1 - 4 pts

On bare reading of stats., 8-1 would seem the approximately correct price as Europe have had two winners in the past 20 years (1992/2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Melbourne_Cup_winners

However, we have been very close on several other occasions recently. I think the BlueSQ price of 3/1 is slighly too short (but a more accurate price than 8-1 - I'd make it an approx. 9/2 chance).

4. Capello to receive a Knighthood in 2010 - 100/1 - 4pts win

England are an approx 6-1 for the World Cup. Whilst I think this is too short, I would still make them no more than a 10-1 chance. If England win the World Cup, I think there is good chance (even money?) that Capello will be awarded an (honourary) Knighthood at end 2010. Ramsey receive a knighthood for 1966, and in these 'celeb' times, there is no reason to think that Capello won't also recieve one. I'd make this an approx 20-1 chance.

5. Pete Doherty to receive a custodial sentence in 2010 - 5-1 - 4pts win

Doherty is treading a very fine line with continual drug (re)offences. I cannot see the judicary allowing him many more chances. He also has potential crimianl proceedings for a hit and run incident (primarily invovling his manager).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Doherty

6. First Celeberity Couple to Divorce in 2010 - Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes- 50-1 - 2pts Win

Tiger & Erin Woods are far too short at 1-3 to be the first couple to divorce, meaning there has to be value at on the other runners. I can't suggest I am an expert in this area, but I think (divorcee) Cruise may have a 'rocky' year. I'm going to have to get a subscription to Heat.

Full list of runners (and odds) below

Tiger and Erin Woods 1/3
Kerry Katona and Mark Croft 4/1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie 7/1
Ashley and Cheryl Cole 10/1
Charlotte Church and Gavin Henson 16/1
Roger and Mirka Federer 25/1
Wayne and Coleen Rooney 33/1
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 50/1
David and Victoria Beckham 50/1

2010 Specials - Part 1 - Skybet

2009-12-26T19:09:00.003Z

At Christmas, my (betting) thoughts turn to yearly specials. These can sometimes be poor value, but amongst the dross are a few gems. The first review I've made is of Skybets's 2010 Specials markets. If anyone can spot and value bets I've missed, please post as a comment or, if you would prefer, send to chris.trinder@gmail.com.

1. Golf - An Amateur to win on the Europen Tour - 7-1

Amateurs have have had a suprisingly good record on the European tour recently. There have been three wins (two in 2009, one in 2007) so 7-1 is a great price. I think it should be much shorter (2-1?). I've had 6 pts (max. allowed). This could make for some interesting viewing of final rounds....

2. Tennis - Murray to win 7 (or more) ATP titles - 7-1

Murray won 5 ATP titles in 2007 and 6 ATP titles in 2008. Nadal is less of a threat now (but Del Potro is more of a threat). I woudl think Murray will probably win approx 6/7 singles titles so 7-1 on 7+ titles is a graet bet... I'd make it an approx 6-4 chance at most. I've had 8pts (max. allowed). It should keep me interested in watching the Men's ATP Tennis for the year!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Murray

3. Cricket - Top Test Score to be greater than 735 - 16-1

The 3 highest test scores last year were:

765
760
749

(all of which would have made this bet payout). Unless I am missing something, the 16-1 is excellent value - I think this should be an odds on shot. I've had 1.5pts (max allowed).

http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=1;id=2009;type=year

4. Snooker - World Championship to have a Century scored in the final frame - 9-1

This has occured in the following years: 2009, 2003, 1998, 1995. I'd therefore think it is probably an approx 4-1 chance. I've had 3 pts at 9-1 (max. allowed).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_Snooker_Championships

I will be doing reviews over the next 2-3 days of each of the other bookies markets.

P.S. 2 Bets I missed were 'Six 6s in a Internatial Twenty20 Over' highlighted in a comment below at 50/1) - now into 3/1 (priced changed while I was doing my analysis) :( and 'Top Test Indiviudal Score to be > 313'... this was priced at 6/1, now into 5/2. The new prices are just fair.

Kempton Christmas Hurdle - Straw Bear - 80/1 - Stan James - 2pts E/W

2009-12-24T11:55:00.004Z

Straw Bear has been mainly chasing recently (with little success). He wisely has returned to hurdling and takes on the 2009 Christmas Hurdle, a race he won in 2007. His run in this race 2008 was too bad to be true (although I haven't been able to find an explanation). After his poor hurdling re-appearance this year he scoped badly, so that can be disregarded (as can his chasing runs). If he returns to his 2007 form, I think he has a live chance. I've had 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2) at 80/1 at Stan James.

Arsenal v Hull - Zayatte - 16/1 - Anytime Goalscorer - Paddy Power

2009-12-19T12:27:00.002Z

Arsenal have showed defensive vulnerabilities this season and think Hull will probably get a goal today (possibly from a set piece). Hull Defender Kamil Zayatte has scored twice this season and I can see him getting this goal... I'd make him an approx 10-1 chance to do so. I've had 2pts at 16-1.

Will Tiger Wood's personal problems affect his Golf preformance?

2009-12-06T16:09:00.006Z

When sportsmen have problems in their personal life, it often reduces their sporting performace. Tiger Wood's might now move resolved his perosnal issues (and enhance his performance)... however I think it is more likely he will have further "issues" next year, made worse by the media attention.

I've therefore had the follwoing bets at Skybet:

To Break Sneads PGA Tour Wins Record (2013 or later) - 9/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)

Woods currenntly has 71 PGA titles - he will need to reach 83 to beat Sam Snead's record (i.e. another 12 titles). He is currently accumulating titles as follows:

2009 - 6
2008 - 4
2007 - 7
2006 - 8
2005 - 6

ie. approx 6 a year. It is easy to see that this average could drop to 4 a year over the next 3 years - 9/1 for this to happen is a more than reasonable. (I appreciate he was injured for the 2nd half of 2008 - this still doesn't substatially change the average PGA titles per year).

Tiger's Next Major Win (2012 or Later) - 10/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)
Tigers Next Major Win (No More Major Wins) - 50/1 (this pays out if he retires before winning anothe rmajor) - 0.5 pts (tried to have 2pts)

Tiger Woods did not win a Major in 2009 (when his was fully fit) and only won a single Major each year from 2007-2009. I can easily seee him failing to win a major in the next 2 years.

**************************

With the continual restriction in my stakes (now from all major bopokmakers - I've just received another "account closed" letter), I'm probably going to either start a "Veitch" like approach or perhaps focus on different areas of investment.

I guess I should take it has a complement that I can't get my bets on!

Betfair Chase - Halcon Generladis - 20/1 - 2pts Win

2009-11-21T10:50:00.002Z

Halcon Generladis goes well fresh, will be favoured by the heavy ground and likes the course (Haydock). I think he has a better than 20/1 chance of winning this race (14/1?). I've had 2pts win at Betfair.

IACGMOOH - Katie Price - 10/1 - 4pts

2009-11-17T18:23:00.002Z

5th in Series 3, Katie Price aka 'Jordan' has a serious chance of winning this event. There have rarely been such a high profile contestant. Critically, she will divide the audience in a love/hate way. As viewers are voting for participants (rather than to 'eveict'), this plays into her hands. I think she is reasonable value at 10/1 - a final three appearance is likely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_a_Celebrity%E2%80%A6Get_Me_out_of_Here!_%28UK_TV_series%29

Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 - Denny Hamlin - 2pts Win - 8/1

2009-11-15T17:21:00.003Z

I think Jimmie Johnson is a poorly priced favourite at 4/1 for this race. With 2 races to go in the Championship, he'll take no risks (especially after losing points in the last race). Hamlin has been in execllent form in recent races and has a good record at this track. He qualified in 5th, showing that his car has a decent setup. I've backed him at 8/1 (2pts Win)... 9/1 is availible at Paddy Power (where my bets are limited).

SCD - Phil Tuffnell - 250/1 - 2pts Win

2009-11-15T09:55:00.002Z

Jade Johnson suffered a serious injury yesterday forcing her to pullout from yesterday's SCD tournament. Under the rules of SCD, she is allowed to miss a single event. However, I think it is unlikely she will be back next weekend which leaves the BBC with 2 options:

1. Make the final consist of 2 couples (rather than 3)
2. Make next week's tournament a 'zero exit ' round
3. Allow the loser this week (Phil Tuffnell) to be return as a 'lucky loser'

I think 1. is the most likley option, but option 3 is a definate possibility (5/1?). If this happens, the the 250/1 is going to look pretty big - I'd then make him a 16/1 chance.

SPOTY 2009 - Market review and new bet......

2009-11-14T12:54:00.004Z

Those of you who follow my blog know I take a keen interest in betting for SPOTY. At present my portfolio has the following bets:

8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1 (now unquoted) - very unlikely
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 100/1)

I have now added what will probably be my final bet on this event. I've has 2pts E/W on Chrissie Wellington at 200/1. Your first response to this would probably be 'Chrissie Who?'. She is the three times Tri-athelete World Champion, winning the event again this year. I think there is a very real possibility that the Sports Editors who compile the the 'Top 10' list from which the public vote from will include her. Then it is up to the BBC how they present her achievements - she will then certainly have the publicity she needs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

What makes me especially keen on this bet is that Wellington has just won the prestigious 'Sunday Times Sportwoman of the Year', beating Ennis into 2nd place! (this competition has a similar voting methodology - list of 10, followed by public voting). Winners of this event have a good record in SPOTY. The past record is as follows:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/more_sport/article2902012.ece

2008 Nicole Cooke (unplaced)
2007 Victoria Pendleton (unplaced)
2006 (Doesn't seem to have been an award?)
2005 Zara Philips (1st SPOTY 2006)
2004 Kelly Holmes (1st SPOTY 2004)
2003 Pippa Funnell (unplaced)
2002 Paula Radcliffe (1st SPOTY 2002)
2001 Ellen MacArthur (2nd SPOTY 2001)
2000 Denise Lewis (2nd SPOTY 2000)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award

She is quoted at 100/1 at Coral at present - no other bookies quote her. I'd make her a 25/1 chance (at most).

England v Brazil - FGS/LGS (1pt Each) - Gareth Barry - 25/1

2009-11-14T12:47:00.002Z

Brazil hasve an excellent defensive record, but I still think England may well score a goal today. With Gerrard and Lampard out, Barry may play a more forward role (and will be likley to take penalties). The generally availible 25-1 on FGS/LGS is a reasonable price - I'd make him an approximtely 12/1-14/1 chance (the price his is at Betfred).

Paddy Power Gold Cup - Tarotino - 2pts Win - 12/1

2009-11-14T12:27:00.002Z

Paddy Power sponsor the Gold Cup at Cheletenham today and have a great offer. They are refunding losing stakes if the race is won by a Nicholls trained horse. Nicholls trains 3 fancied horses:

Chapoturgeon (7-1)
Poquelin (14-1)
Tatenen (11-1)

It therefore makes sense to pick a non-Nicholls horse. There are many of these with a chance, however I've gone for Tarotino (12-1). He has been impressive in his recent races and although he has been rasied 15lb since his last race at Bangor, he may stil have the potential to improve past this weight raise. The ground is a concern for the trainer, but I think the soft ground should not inconvenience (unlike many others) - her has previosuly win on the soft.

European Chmpionship - Darts - James Wade 5pts E/W

2009-11-01T17:45:00.005Z

James Wade is in the semi finals whre he plays Steve Beaton (Wade 1-3, Beaton 2-1). Paddy Power are very generously offering him with E/W betting (1/3) 1,2 at 9/2 for ouright betting. If you think the prices are correct (which I do), the E/W shape/nature of the market makes this a great bet. I've had a (max allowed) 5 pts E/W

Update: Perhaps it would have made more sense to back BOTH semi-finalists in the opposite half from Phil Taylor.

2nd Update: All bets (win/place) voided by Paddy Power.

Strictly Come Dancing - Ricky Groves to win Week 6 - 66/1 - 1pt

2009-10-24T11:43:00.003+01:00

I am starting to think that Ricky Groves has a chance of winning SCD (ouright). He is dancing the American Smooth this week. The dances are as follows:

Amercian Smooth - Ali, Chris, Nat, RickyG, RickyW, Zoe
Samba - Craig, Jade, Jo, Laila, Tuffers

Those who will be dancing the Amercian Smooth will have a significant advantage as this is typically highly scored. Ricky W and Ali with provide stiff competition but if Ricky G ditches the 'cheeky chappy' routine, I think the judges will reward him well. Apparently rehearsels are going well for Ricky Groves - I can see a score in the thirties. The downside is that Ricky G is more suited by Latin dances, but you can't have everything in your favour...

I tried to have 2pts, but have had to get a total of 1pts across several bookies at 66/1.

The first of many I fear.....

2009-10-22T17:39:00.002+01:00

to "chris.trinder@googlemail.com"
date Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 5:23 PM
subject Account Closure
mailed-by galacoral.com

Dear Mr Trinder

I am writing to advise you that your account with Coral.co.uk has been closed. As of now, no further bets can be accepted and and any recorded in error will be decarled void, win or lose. This decision has been taken purely for commercial reasons.

In the event of you placing a bet indirectly with Coral.co.uk in the future, we will reserve the right to void your bet.

Any funds currently in your balance have now been sent back to your registered card. Any outstanding Ante Post bets will be settled upon their maturity and any subsequent funds won will be sent back to your registered card.

Kind Regards

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Brazil GP F1 - Rosberg 8pts win (25-1), 1pt Place

2009-10-18T14:14:00.003+01:00

There is a raesonable likelihood of rain this afternoon at the Brazil GP. If the race is severely affected by rain, Rosberg has an excellent chance to win the race. He showed in early practice yesterday that his car is optimized for wet conditions. I've had 8 pts win at a (generous) 25/1. I've also had a small place bet (1pt) to cover my win stake, but I think he his most likely to either win or come nowhere. I'd make him a 8/1 chance to win. Due to restrictions, I've had to palce this bet across several bookmakers.

Portugal Masters - Lima - 1pt E/W 150/1

2009-10-14T22:34:00.003+01:00

Lima has played consistently well on the Challenge Tour thsi year (finished second on the tour)and could spring a surprise in the Portugal Masters. He has an excellent record in Portugal in recent seasons which would mean I would make him an approx 66/1 chance of winning this event.

I tried to have 2pts E/W but was restricted to 1 pt E/W.

Argentina v Peru - Peru to win - 33/1 - 2pts

2009-10-10T11:11:00.005+01:00

As per my post below, although I am fairly convinced Argentina will win tonight, there come a point when a price can simply to big. This is the case with Peru tonight - the 33/1 is too big - I'd make it a 16/1 chance (at most). It is just possible that Maradona will contrive to lose this game via a combination of poor tactics, (unlucky) finishing and weak defending.

Argentina v Peru - FGS (50-1) /AGS (16-1) - Varga - Extrabet

2009-10-10T10:52:00.004+01:00

Argentina legend Maradona has proved to be an inept maanger - is is ludicrous that Argentina will (probably) only just qualify for the 2010 World Cup. Tonight they play Peru and although they should win the game, there is a good chance they will conceed a goal to Peru. This may well come from talented attacking midfileder Varga.

He is way overpriced at Bet365 and Extrabet for first golascsorer (50-1) / anytime goalscorer (14-1). I missed the 80-1/20-1 - most other bookies go much shorter. I've had 2pt on each.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Manuel_Vargas

Presidents Cup - Stewart Cink - Top US - 14/1 Stan James - 4pts

2009-10-07T19:47:00.002+01:00

Stewart Cink has the strongest President's Cup record on the US team. He also has an excellent match play record. He has been in fair form recently and I think he has a great chance of being top US points scorer. At 14/1 he is great value - I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

I think the other (possible) vale bet is Sean O'Hair, but I'm sticking to a single bet at present.

Lay Phil Taylor at 1.07 - 1st Round Grand Prix 2009 - 2pts Lay Liabilty

2009-10-05T17:33:00.006+01:00

Phil Taylor is one oif the greatest sportsmen of all time. However, he could be vulnerable tonight in the first round of the 2009 Grand Prix. Each leg requires a double to start and the match is only a best of 3 legs. Phil Taylor has won 8 of the last 11 Grand Prixes that have been held - the 3 times has lost have all been lost in the first round. I've laid Phil Taylor at 1.07 on Betfair for tonight's match - I'd make it an approx 1.2 chance.

Barrichello - F1 Championship 2009 16-1 - 10pts

2009-10-04T20:38:00.003+01:00

I've been unable to get anyone to take my request for 40-1 at Betfair for Barrichello so I have had 10 pts at 16-1 with William Hill. This is a fair price (and nothing more) but I am keen to get a balanced book on the 2009 F1 chammpionship. Bizzarely, my worst result is now Button! (but not by much)

I have attached an image of my bets on F1 Championship... I'm pretty pleased how things have gone - it looks like I've timed my investments in F1 quite well this year!

Prix de L'Abbaye - Monsiuer Chevalier - 25-1 - 2pts Win

2009-10-04T10:38:00.002+01:00

Monsieur Chevalier may be able to make the most of his weight for age allowance as the only 2yo in the race. The last 2yo to try this (Kingsgate Native, 2007) came 2nd and the record of 2yo's over the past decade in this race is pretty good. I think a strong paced 5f will suit the horse (he has been run the last 2 races over 6f) and the 25-1 .

On an unrelated market, I've backed Vettel to win £8K in the F1 Championship market on Betfair - now we are two races from the end of the season, I'm closing down the 'gap' in the returns between Button, Barichello and Vettel. I'm now trying to lay Barichello as he is now the worst result for me... I'm hoping someone will lay my 40-1 on Betfair over the next couple of weeks...I really need to do a P & L on these three runners!

Prize Fighter Preview - Harrison/Barrett

2009-10-01T21:52:00.004+01:00

I think Audley Harrison may just about have enough class to win 'Prizefighter'. However, the nature of the contest (just 3 rounds for each fight) means that there is a reasonable possibility that he could win each of the 3 bouts on points. I think the 8/1 that Skybet and Boylesports are offering on this is good value. I've had 5.5 pts on this (max allowed). I'd think it was more like a 5/1 chance.

I have also been tempted by the 16/1 at Skybet on (unbeaten 8-0-0) Coleman Barrett to reach the Final (he is this price with other bookies to win it!). I have never been a big fan of Danny Williams who he would most likley meet in the Semi Final - I'd give Barrett a chance against him. I'd make Barrett a 7/1 chnace of making the final - I've had 4pts at 16/1

Japanese Grand Prix - Trulli to be fastet in Qualifying - 33/1 - 4.5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (1/5 1,2,3)

2009-10-01T21:26:00.007+01:00

Japanase teams have an excellent qualifying record at the Japanase Grand Prix, typically overachieving compared to earlier season form. Suzuka will suit the Toyota car and Trulli has a 10-4 lead over his team mate Glock in qualifying. Trulli has already had a pole position once this year and it woudldn't surprise me to see a Toyota run relatively light in Q3 to try to steal a 'glory pole' on home turf - the car is good enough to do this. N.B. The possibility of rain also brings uncertainty meaning it is better to be on longer priced runners.

I;ve had to spread my bets around at several bookamkers as (unsuprisingly) I'm fairly limited as to what they will accept from me on F1 markets!

Japanese Grand Prix - Jenson Button to win Championship at Japanese Grand Prix - 1pt 9/1 (Stan James), 4pts 8/1 (William Hill)

2009-10-01T21:16:00.002+01:00

Jenson Button needs to finish 20pts ahead of Barrichello and Vettel in the Championship to win the F1 title in Japan. He is currenly 15 pts clear of Barichello and 25 pts clear of Vettel. It is difficult to put an extact price on this, but I have a hunch that 9/1 is too big a price - I'd make it an approx 3/1 chance.

7th ODi - James Anderson - Man of the Match - 16/1 - 2pts

2009-09-19T19:00:00.002+01:00

James Anderson has a reasonable chance of being Man of the Match in the 7th ODI. The weather conditiosn will suit his seam bowling (dry and overcast). He has a good record at this ground and Australia's batsman do not play seam bowling well - I'd make him a 12-1 chance.

N.B. I've had to spread this bet across several bookmakers due to limits on my accounts, hence the £12.50 on the betting slip (rather than the £50 total I have bet).

Austrian Open - Martin Erlandsson - 4pts win - 25/1

2009-09-16T18:58:00.003+01:00

Malmo based Eralndsson's appointment of a sports psychologist has boosted his recent form the European tour (although he is still to win an event). His recent form figures read:

4-22-15-2-MC

His last two results at this location were 9th (2007) and 3rd (2008) (his best finish of the season last year). He goes well at this course as, unlike many other courses, it does not punish his somewhat erratic driving.

Lock in (further) £5K profits on F1 2009 Championship

2009-09-13T19:48:00.005+01:00

I've backed Vettel at 40-1 on Betfair for 2009 F1 Champion. This is a fair price - (positive = some of upcoming tracks play to Red Bull strengths, negative = possible 10 place grid penalty for engine change). This bet gives me 'full cover' on all runners. I've now backed the 4 possible winners (varying stakes) at the following odds:

Jenson Button 66-1
Rubens Barrichello 125-1
Sebastian Vettel 40-1
Mark Webber 33-1

The ironic thing is that I suspect that it will be a Button/Brawn win for the F1 Championship and all my laying off to gaurantee the profits will have been both costly an unnecessary. However, I've been able to do this at sensible prices thereby reducing my return by 'only' 20% (I'll do the exact maths later). I can also sleep at night rather than worrying about Button having a season ending accident.

Lisbon Treaty not to be passed by Irish - 9/2 - 7pts

2009-09-05T08:32:00.002+01:00

In approx. one months time, the Southern Irish will vote for a second time on the Lisbon Treaty. The original vote last year had the the following outcome

Yes - 46%
No - 53%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland_Bill,_2008

The latest polls look good for the 'Yes' campaign

Yes - 46%
No - 29%
Don't Know - 25%

However, at a similar point in the campaign last year to today (i.e. one month before the poll), the polling was

Yes - 35%
No - 18%
Don't Know - 47%

My assessment is that we are in a similar position this year re: voting intentions one month before the vote. With so many undecided voters, the outcome is realtively uncertain. If the 'Don't Know's' split accoring to the current Yes/No split, it is a clear win for the 'Yes' vote. However, if the 'Don't Know's' split like they did last time, the outcome would be Yes 52%/No 48% ie. a narrow 'Yes' win.

The previous polling earlier in the summer was

Yes - 54%
No - 28%
Don't Know - 18%

If you factor in this information i.e that the momentum is clearly with the 'No' campaign, I think the vote could be close. I certainly expect that neither side is likley to get more than 55% of the vote. I've therefore backed the 'No' outcome at 9/2 with Paddypower.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0904/1224253822439.html

Barclays - Vijay Singh - 2pts E/W - 40/1

2009-08-26T20:23:00.002+01:00

Backing at new course (Liberty National) is a bit of a lottery, but there are good reasons to think Vijay Singh coudl do well this week. Liberty National is said to be similar to Whistling Straits where Vijay Singh won the USPGA in 2004. He has decent recent form (6th in the Colonial, 7th in the AT&T, 16th in the USPGA). I'm having a speculative 2pts E/W at 40-1.

5th Ashes Test to finish in 3rd Session Sunday - 7-1 - 1pt Ladbrokes

2009-08-23T10:32:00.002+01:00

I think Ladbrokes have seriously mis-judged the price on the 5th Test ending today in the 3rd (final) seession. With possible rain tomorrow, England will be as keen as possible to wrap up the test (and series) today. Hopefully Swann can make serious inroads into the Aussies. I'd make a finish today in the 3rd session a 5/2 chance. Unfortuntaley, Ladbrokes have only allowed me 1pt (£25) at 7/1 - I tried to have 4 pts (£100). Disappointingly, bet limits at bookies are becoming a fairly common occurence for me, and no other bookie has this market open.

Notts County v Dagenham & Redbridge - Dagenham to win - 9/2 - 4pts

2009-08-22T08:28:00.003+01:00

Since backing Notts County at 10/1 for the Divison 2 Title pre-season, I've taken a lot closer interest in Divison 2. Notts County are now 7/4 chances, a price which I think is fa too short - I;d make them at least a 5/1 chance. Their opening two wins were against weak teams (Bradford and Macclesfield) and defeat away at Chesterfield mid week showed they should never be such short price for this divison. The only reason they are tis price is the large liabilities the bookies have, having been backed at all rates down from 33/1. Unfortunately, there is little liquidity at Betfair to lay them, so I have taken an alternative approach.

I think Dagenham are too long a price for the Divion 2 at 18/1 at Coral. I'm currently considering backing them outright for the divison, but I'm nervous what Notts Cunty could do in the transfer market mid season. While I make a final decsion this morning, I've backed them at 9/2 away at Notts County today. Dagenham have made an execllent start, winning all three games. Manager John Still has made some astute pre-season purchases and maanged to hold on to (some) of the key players.

The generally availible 9/2 on Dagenham today is too big (it was 5/1 yesterday) - I'd make it a 5/2 chance.

Solheim Cup - 8pts win - Europe - 9/2

2009-08-21T13:12:00.004+01:00

The results (with locations) are the Solheim Cup are as follows:

1990 - USA - USA 11.5 Europe 4.5
1992 - Europe - Europe 11.5 USA 6.5
1994 - USA - USA 13 Europe 7
1996 - Europe - USA 17 Europe 11
1998 - USA - USA 16 Europe 12
2000 - Europe - Europe 14.5 USA 11.5
2002 - USA - USA 15.5 Europe 12.5
2003 - Europe - Europe 17.5 USA 10.5
2005 - USA - USA 15.5 Europe 12.5
2007 - Europe - USA 15 Europe 12

At first glance, it looks like USA are highly likley to win, having won all 5 events on their soil. However, I think this year could be much closer. Although USA have the highest ranked players, there is only really a signficant diffenece betwen the teams for the players ranked 9-12. These lower ranked players will only play on Day 3 in the singles. The players ranked 1-8 are much closer in ranking and ability and these will be the players will play the 4ball/4somes on Friday/Saturday. The European players also have better recent form.

European golfers tend to overachieve in matchplay as

- it is a not so common format in the US so Europeans have more experience
- Eurpoeans typiclaly have a better team spirit

I think the Europeans will take a lead into the singles on Sunday (when it may make sense to lay them), and may hold on. I'd make them a 2/1 chane to win this event.

Premiership - Stadium with Most Goals - Emirates - Skybet - 9/1 - 4 pts

2009-08-17T22:10:00.002+01:00

Skybet have also opened a market on which Premiership ground will have the most goals and have priced the Emirates at 9/1. Nothing has significantly changed from my analysis 2 days ago so I've 'topped' up my intial 2 pts at Boylesports with a further 4 pts at Skybet (I tried to have a further 8pts, but was restricted).

Mens 100m - Tyson Gay - 2pts 16-1

2009-08-16T19:22:00.002+01:00

Usain Bolt is a truly awesome athlete, but in what I think is a two horse race I can't resist backing Tyson Gay at 16/1. He ran 9.77 last month in Rome and if he gets a fast start (as expected) there is a chance he will hold off Bolt. Bolt ran 9.69 in the Olympics, but has 'only' run similar times to Tyson Gay this year (post car accident). I would make Gay a 10/1 chance (at most), hence I'm having 2pts at 16/1 on him.

Paula Radcliffe - SPOTY 2009 - 4pts - 66/1 - Ladbrokes

2009-08-16T16:39:00.003+01:00

Paula Radcliffe has just won the New York Half Marathon. Participation in the World Championship Marathon is not confirmed, but I think likely. I have had a further 4pts @ 66-1 on her for SPOTY (to go with my 50-1 on Ennis and 200-1 on Daley). My complete is thus:

8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 28/1)

Premiership - Stadium with Most Goals - Emirates - Boylesports - 9/1 - 4 pts

2009-08-15T12:30:00.002+01:00

The record for the Premiership Ground with the most goals is as follows:

2008-2009 Hawthorns
2007-2008 White Hart Lane
2006-2007 Emirates
2005-2006 Highbury
2004-2005 Highbury
2003-2004 White Hart Lane
2002-2003 Highbury
2001-2002 Highbury
2000-2001 Stamford Bridge
1999-2000 Old Trafford

I have highligted the Arsneal grounds - they have had the most goals 5 of the last 10 years. Wenger has not changed his attacking philosophy in teh opast 10 years so I don't think there is any reason why the Emirates shoudln't be strong favourite. I think the 9/1 on the Emirates seeing the most goals is excellent value.

I tried to have 10 pts on the Emirates at 9/1, but was restricted to 2 pts.

Premiership - First Manager to leave position - David Moyes - 50/1 (1pt), 40/1 (4pts)

2009-08-15T12:15:00.004+01:00

David Moyes has had a very sucessfull time as manager at Everton and is highly rated by Chairman Bill Kenwright. However, the Lescott saga could have significant repurcussions. Moyes has made it clear that he doesn't want Lescott to leave. At the Press conferecne yesterday, he made it obvious this is not simply a negotiating strategy to ensure the best possible price is obtained for Lescott.

If Moyes is force to sell Lescott by Everton (unlikely, but possible if Man City make a 'stupid offer') I think Moyes' comments yesterday could make his position untenable. He coudl leave on a 'high' and wait until another high profile job position comes availible (Man Utd?). This is all likley to played out in the next 2 weeks before the transfer window ends, which means is Moyes does levae he will very likely be the first Premieship Manager to do so.

Victor Chandler go 50/1 that he is the first Premieship Manager top leave. I tried to have 4pts, but was limited to 1pt. therfore, to ensure I have the same return, I have had another 4 pts at Coral at 40/1. Interestingly, this outcome is as short as 14/1 at other bookies... I think this is a much more accurate price.

USPGA - Phil Mickleson - 25-1 - 4 pts E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

2009-08-12T21:38:00.004+01:00

I'm suprised to see Phil Mickleson 25/1 for the USPGA. He had a poor week last week, finishing 58th at Bridgetone. However, it was a similar scenario before the Masters and US Open this year. In both these Majors, he used the immediately proceeding tournmanet as a 'warm up' event (MC Shell Houston, 59th St. Jude) before going onto good finishes in the Majors (5th in the Masters, 2nd in the US Open).

A previous winner im 2005, Mickleson is well suited by this long course and can demonstrate the old adage that while form is tempoarary, class is permanent. There certainly wouldn't be a more popular winner.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Mickelson

NASCAR - Watkins Glen - Tony Stewart - 7/1 - 4pts win

2009-08-09T16:17:00.002+01:00

Tony Stewart has had a great season so far (leading the championship) and has a strong record at Watkins Glen (a road course) (numbers indicated qulaifying position).

08/10/08 Kyle Busch 1 Toyota
08/12/07 Tony Stewart 5 Chevrolet
08/13/06 Kevin Harvick 7 Chevrolet
08/14/05 Tony Stewart 1 Chevrolet
08/15/04 Tony Stewart 4 Chevrolet
08/10/03 Robby Gordon 14 Chevrolet
08/11/02 Tony Stewart 3 Pontiac

He qualified 13th for this race, but that should not cause a major problem. I'd make him a 4/1 chance for this race.

17/2 is availible at Paddy Power, but like Bluesq, thay have limited me to 'buttons'. The 4pts has been placed at Centebet (looks like I will be increasingly using overseas bookmakers).

SPOTY (Bet #3) - Paula Radcliffe - 66/1 Coral - 4pts

2009-08-09T16:06:00.001+01:00

I've tried to restrict the number of bets I'm having on SPOTY 2009, but I can't resist having a third bet. The World Athletics Championships in Berlin is a week away and Radcliffe has yet to make a final decision on whether she is fit enough to take part in the Marathon. If she does take part and win this event (a big if), she will be one of the favourites for SPOTY 2009. I think the uncertainty on her (healthy) participation is more than offset by the 66/1 that is availible for SPOTY 2009.

Complete Portfolio
Jessica Ennnis - 8pts - 50/1 (now 11/1)
Tom Daley - 2pts - 200/1 (now 33/1)
Paul Radcliffe - 4pts - 66/1

WGC Bridgestone Preview

2009-08-05T22:42:00.004+01:00

Given his record in WGC events (15 from 28), Tiger Woods has an obvious chance of winning this event. His record at this course (Firestone) is 7 wins from 10 events. However, at a best priced 7/4, the bookies are only offering a fair price. He was a similar price last week against a much weaker field, and I am yet to be convinced he is back to his best form. His driving is still not accurate and any wayward drives will be punished here.

With so much taken out of the book, it is possible to back bigger priced runners with excellent chances. The two I have selected against the field are Davis Love III (80/1) and Angel Cabrera (100/1).

Davis Love has an great record in this event - I have made good profits backing him here before (as long term readers of my blog will know!). His recent record is T6th 2007, T4th 2006, T4th 2004, 3rd 2003 (he didn't play last year). He has had decent form this year, playing well on courses where he has previously had success.

Angel Cabrera also has a good record at this course (=4th in 2004 and 2006) and showed at Turnberry when finishing 24th that he is back on form. 100/1 for a recent Major winner (Masters 2009) is an insult - he has a realistic chance of winning this event.

I have had 2pst E/W on both at 1/4 first 5 place terms. N.B. The 80/1 is still availible on Davis Love, but the best you can currently get on Cabrera is 80/1.

Australia to win 3rd Test - 25/1 - 4pts (Betfair)

2009-08-02T09:23:00.003+01:00

With good weather forecast for the 4th and 5th Days of the 2rd Test, I think a result is a definite possibility. I considered laying the draw at 1.16, but instead have opted for backing Austrlia at 25/1.

Australia are 1-0 down in the series and they may take a chance with a challenging declaration early on Day 5. The weather looks good for day 4/5, so there are plenty of overs left....(although there is probably a delayed start today, the overs should be made up). The main concern re: the draw is an early finish tomrorow due to bad light.

Of course England could slowly grind out a large total today and this bet is going to look very silly...

Man City to finish Bottom of the Handicap - Premiership (+16 pts)

2009-07-26T11:17:00.005+01:00

I believe Man City may not finish as well as expected this year. It is critical they they stregnthen their defence - at the moment that have far too many strikers. However, if they persist in trying to get Terry they run the risk of ending up with no significant defensive purchases. If this happens, I think a 7th-8th finish is a possibility, which would see them (potentially) 'winning' the race to win bottom of the Premierhsip Handicap from +16.

I am far less confident about this bet than the Newcastle wager below - I've had 4 pts on the Man City bet and wouldn't want any more, it is far less value.

Newcastle to finish bottom on the Handicap - Championship (Scratch)

2009-07-26T10:55:00.006+01:00

Newcastle are a club in disaray at present. To restore sanity to the club, owner Mike Ashley will need to sell. However, at present the bids are not to his likling. Until a sale is made, it is likley Chris Houghton wil reamin in charge and there will be no new players bought. I am suprised to see Newcastel favourites to win the divsion - I think that a mid-table position is most likely (at best).

I've therefore backed Newcastle to come bottom on the Championship handicap at 14/1 with Skybet. They are off 'scratch' meaning they give up points to all other teams in the division. I think this is an excellent bet = I'd make it a 7/1 chance at most. The only concern will be a another team also doing unexpectedly very badly (as Charlton did last year to scupper my QPR bet). I tried to have 12pts at 14/1 on Newcastle finishing bottom of the handicap, but was restricetd to 4pts.

I missed the 18/1 yesterday... I wasn't expecting the market to move and Newcastle managed this casue this by losing 6-1 yesterday.

N.B. Don't confuse this with the 'Outright Handicap Market'!

SPOTY (Bet #2) - Tom Daley - 200/1 Bluesq - 2pts

2009-07-21T18:19:00.002+01:00

I've tried to restrict the number of bets I'm having on SPOTY (hence not backing Flintoff at 33/1, now 5/1), but I can't resist having a second bet on SPOTY 2009 (to go with 8pts on Jessica Ennis at 33/1). Tom Daley has just won the Diving World Chmapionship - if the BBC choose to major on him in their SPOTY 2009 preview, he could be in with a reasonable chance. 200/1 is an insult. I've had 2pst at Bluesq. (William Hill are 3/1! (which is laughably short).

Notts County to win League Two - 10/1 - 14pts win

2009-07-21T12:40:00.004+01:00

Notts County had terrible results last season, narrowly avoiding relegation. However, the recent takeover by Munto Finance may have significantly changed the situation. Munto Finance have stated that they wish to get into the Championship in the next 4-5 seasons. The likely "shock" appointment tomorrow of Sven-Goran Eriksson as Director of Football has signalled they are serious about this ambition. Surely Eriksson would only have taken this appointment with a significant financial inducement. If a substantial amount of money is spent on the playing staff in the next 2 weeks, Notts County will have a great chance of winning this division.

I've backed Notts County at the following bookies (all at 10-1)

Victor Chandler - 4pts
Paddy Power - 3pts
BlueSQ - 6pts
SJ - 1pt

These were all the max. bets I was allowed...

Open Golf - Outright Bet (after Rnd 3) - Bryce Molder - 2 pts E/W 50-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) - Ladbrokes, 4 pts Win Betfair (75-1)

2009-07-18T19:30:00.003+01:00

Bryce Molder was the final person I crossed off my Open list (at 250-1), leaving Stpehen Ames as my only bet. Bryce Molder has recently been in inspired form with some remarkebly consitent rounds. My concern pre-tournament was that having to play two rounds last Sunday would mean tiredness was an issue - this is claerly not the case.

With Stpehen Ames missing the cut, I've now decided to back Bryce Molder at 50-1. An excellent 67 today means he is on even par, 4 shots behind the leader Tom Watson. Molder has shown today he can handle the windy conditions, likely to be the case tomorrow. I had no doubnt links golf would not be an issue - he played reasonably well links golf in his Amateur career (picked this up in my pre-tournament research!)

I've also placed 4 pts win at 70-1 on Betfair, with a lay back at even money (I've been twice caught with Open Golf losing bets with players who have gone odds on at some point!)

Khan v Kotelnik - Kotelnik to win on points - 5pts - 8/1

2009-07-18T10:34:00.002+01:00

I believe Khan is seriously underpriced for this fight. After a first round loss to Prescott (three fights ago) and a win last fight over a 'past it' Barrera, Khan is taking a serious chance by fighting Kotelnik.

Khan is vulnerable to a KO from Kotelnik (7/2), but his trainer Roach will have educated him to try to avoid this (especially as this would be a career ending result for Khan). Kotelnik was able to stand (hard hitting) Maidana in his last fight and go onto win on points, hence I think a KO by Khan (2/1)is unlikely.

I am therefore think a points victory for either boxer are the the most likely possible cenarios. A Kahan points victory at 6/4 is no value. A "suprise" Kotelnik points victory is a definite "runner" and, at 8/1, is a great bet. I'd make it a 3/1 chance.

Open Golf - Stephen Ames to win ROW market - Totesport - 10/1 - 6 pts (1pt E/W Outright market)

2009-07-14T22:50:00.004+01:00

I think Stephen Ames to go better than expected in the Open. He last 4 Major results were :

T7 - Missed Cut - T20 - T10

The T7 was in last year's Open when he posted an excellent final round score in windy conditions - there could be similar conditions this year. I've had 1pt E/W on Betfair at prices of 190.0 win/30 place. I've reserved my main bet for the Totesport 'Rest of The World' Market. Totesport have fewer players on their marketcomnpared to other bookies, reducing the risk. (of course Ames is 10/1, shorter than the 25/1 in most ROW markets with other bookies)

The main players in this market are

Villegas
Cabrera
Singh
Weir
Romero
Choi

All of them are capable on their day and could easily win this market, but I don't especially fancy any of these players this week. I've had max. allowed of 6pts (tried to have 10 pts).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Ames

Sports Personality of the Year 2009 - Jessica Ennis - 50-1 - 8pts win

2009-07-12T11:06:00.004+01:00

The two shortest in the betting for SPOTY are Jenson Button and Andy Murray.

Jenson Button has a great chance of winning this, but at 4/7 he is not a backable price. With BBC now showing F1, he will get excellent coverage. However, he is not guranteed to win the F1 championship and, and even if he does win, this does not automatically translate to winning the SPOTY 2009.

At 4/1 Andy Murray has a chance, but he didn't finish in the Top 3 last year. As a consequence of 'only' a semi final this year at Wimbledon, as a minimum he wouldl need to win the US Open (and even that would not gurantee a win in SPOTY 2009). I have a suspicion in England he is not especially well liked, as a consequence of some previous unfortunate commments.

With relstively few individual events this year, I've picked Jesscia Ennis to win SPOTY 2009 at 50/1. She is back fit again and has a good chance of winning Gold in the Heptathlon in the World Championships in Berlin this summer. If this happens, I think she is likley to finsih top 3 (and potentially win it ouright). She his taking park today in an Athletics tournament - I've therefore taken the last remaining 50/1 at Corals. I would make her a 10/1 chance.

Graaem Swann - Man of the Match - 1st Ashes Test - 8pts win 14/1

2009-07-08T09:29:00.002+01:00

Graeme Swann has an excellent chance of being Man of the Match in the firat test. This ground is likley to take spin (as shown by earlier one day mathces). He is particularly potent against left handers - there are a realtively large number of these in the Asutralian top order. I believe Swann could take a signficant amount of wickets whcih woudl put him in with a great chance of winning MoM. I've managed to get 6pts at 14/1 and 2pts at 16/1

Pietersen to score > 500 runs in the Ashes Test Series - Centrebet - 11/2 - 8 pts

2009-07-07T22:47:00.004+01:00

Pietersen has a career test average of 48.3. The bookies think he will score approx 400 runs in the Ashes series, but I think this is an underestimate.

Postives

- Previous Ashes series totals were 490 (in 2005) and 473 (in 2005) with an average of 53.5 i.e. he raises his game against Australia compared to lesser teams
- Australia have a weaker bowling attack than the last two Ashes ** this is the most important **
- I believe Pietersen will be motivated by the loss of being captain

Negatives

- Possible injury worries (although he asys he has recovered form these)
- Will Pietersen gets a chance to bat for 10 innings? ( I think highly likely but could be derailed by injuries and/or weather)

I therefore think that 11/2 on him to score more than 500 runs is a very fair price - I'd make at an approx 3/1 chance (at most).

Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year - 11/2 - Betfred - 2pts win

2009-07-07T22:41:00.003+01:00

The 'Racing Post' today highlighted a great bet today on Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year 2009-10. In 15 the last 16 years the Manager who has won the Premier League has also won Premeier Manager of the Year. You are therefore getting effectively 11/2 about a 5/2 chance. I tried to have 16 pts on Ancelotti but was restricted to 2pts.

Tour De France - Fabian Cancellara - 100-1 4 pts E/W

2009-07-04T20:20:00.003+01:00

This bet is going to go down as one of my most inspired or my most stupid.

Another day, another "Black Swan". Folliwng today's racing of the Tour de France (first day), second placed Contador has strengthed his position at the top of the market. He is a likely winner, but the three week Tour De France has thrown at many suprises in the past during the competition e.g. failed drug tests. I'm therefore not tempted at even money.

Instead, I have had a speculative 4 pts E/W at Ladbrokes at 100-1 on Cancellara (who won todays time trial by 20s). Most people will think this is complete nonsense as Cancellara is considered "just" a time trial specialist. However, he showed in the recent Tour of Switzerland that he can build up a sufficient lead in the time trials to win the overall event (by staying competitive in the mountains).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_Cancellara
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Tour_de_Suisse

Certainly past winner Stephen Roche thinks that a high overall finish is not impossible. Cancellara's (alleged) weight loss of 7 kg may have just been the what is required to stay competitive in the French mountains.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/stephen-roche-tips-contador-and-cancellara-for-tour

This bet complements my 4pt win bet placed last year on Lance Armstrong at 16-1 when he announced his comback (now top priced 13-2).

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2009 - Guadeloupe - 2pts E/W - 100/1

2009-07-03T17:44:00.002+01:00

A signficant numnber of the leading contenders for this tournamnet are fiedling sub-strength teams. This means one of the outsiders could go deep into the tournament. I think a possible 'Black Swan' are Guadeloupe. As they are not a FIFA memeber, their ability is more difficult to judge.

Most of the Guadeloupe players play in the French League so consequently play to a reasonable standard. Their first appearance in the Gold Cup in 2007 saw them make the semi-finals went out 1-0 to Mexico. They are in a relatively weak group (Group C). I am confident they will qaulify from the Group stage, probably in 2nd place behind Mexico. They could even top it due to Mexico fielding a youth team

There is no way there should be 100-1 (outright) chances. I've tried to have 4 pts E/W but have been restricted to 1 pt E.W at 2 bookmakers (making a total investment of 2pts EW). I've also had 1pt at 33-1 on Guadeloupe to win Group C - I tried to have 4pts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadeloupe_national_football_team

F1 2009 Championship - Mark Webber - 12pts win -33/1

2009-06-27T11:34:00.004+01:00

After 8 of 17 races the standing are as follows:

01 Jenson Button 64
02 Rubens Barrichello 41
03 Sebastian Vettel 39
04 Mark Webber 35.5

(Trulli is next at 21.5)

I think the F1 Championship is now between the Brawn and the Red Bull Drivers. Red Bull Bull have made signficant progress with their car, as demonstrated by their 1-2 in the British Grand Prix. With less than half the season gone, it would not be impossible for one of the Red Bull drivers to overtake Button in the Championship (although clearly Button is still by far the most likely winner).

However, I'm very suprised to see the differnec in price between Vettel (10-3) and Webber (33-1). I've given a lot of thought and I really can't see why they are so different in price. I'd have made the book:

Button 1/3
Vettel 7/1
Webber 9/1
Barrichello 40/1

I therefore think Webber is great value at 33-1 (complements my 50-1 on Button and 125-1 on Barrichello). I've had to be imaginative how to get £300 on - I was restriceted at virtually all bookies to a few pounds. Fortunately, William Hill allowed me £3 max. online and £100 without question in cash in their shops. If you are going to cut off winning punters, at least try and do it consistently across all channels!

US Open - Michael Sim - 600/1

2009-06-16T21:05:00.005+01:00

I think I have found a 'Black Swan' in Micheal Sim. He has had an oustanding record on the Nationwide Tour in 2009:

http://www.pgatour.com/players/02/68/82/

The fact he is playing on the Nationwide Tour means he has slipped under the radar, much like the Open winner Todd Hamilton who was similarly unfancied at 500-1 when playing on the Japanese Tour. I've had the following bets:

1pt Win 600-1 (Betfair
1.5 pts E/W 300-1 (Bluesq 1/3 1-5 / Boylesports 1/4 1-6)
4pts Win Top Australian 16-1 ... (Ogilvy is a massive danger for this bet)

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Queen Anne Stakes - Alexandros - 2pts - 10/1 - Betfred

2009-06-14T14:32:00.006+01:00

The Godolphin/Frankie Dettori combination have had great succes in this race in the past (although they have a generally poor Ascot record). Godolphin have two runners in this race, Gladiatorus and Alexandros. Gladiatorus (partnered by Ajtebi) beat Alexandros at Nad Al Sheba and a repetition of this form will see Gladiatorus most likley win this race

This was an oustanding performance, but form at Nad Al Sheba is not certain to transfer to other tracks (and there is a possibility that Gladiatorus could 'bounce') . At 9/4, I'm therefore not backing Gladiatorus. I've instead backed Dettori's runner Alexandros (the Godolphin 'second string'). Alxendros was unlucky in the Lockinge (a key 'trial' for this race) when second to Virtual (Dettori lost his whip in the final furlonmg).

Alexandros is (wrongly in my opinion) seen as not much more than a top class handicapper. I think he is better than that and will not need much of a progression in ability to take this race (asuuming Gladiatorus does not show the same ability as at Nad Al Sheba). I have significant concerns about others in the race. Will Paco's Boy stay 1m on a straight track? - I think Paco's Boy is poor value at 7/2 having been beaten fairly and squarely in the Lockinge by Alexandros over 1m. Aqlaam will need to recover from a poor run in the Lockinge (when clearly something was amiss). If he does, he could be a massive danger - at 10/1 he is a reasonable price as well.

I've therefore had 2pts at 10/1 at Betfred on Alexandros.

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Kings Stand Stakes - Mythical Flight - 2pts - 25/1 - William Hill

2009-06-14T14:10:00.004+01:00

Overseas raiders have an execllent record in the Kings Stand Stakes and are consistently underated. The Australian runner Scenic Blast has a great chance at 7/2 but, at a bigger price (25/1), I've backed Mythical Flight. In his last two races, this South African runner raced twice over 6f in the Far East. In these races he clearly looked like he would benefit from a drop back to 5f. Mythical Prince has a bit to find on the form, but 25/1 is a generous price.

Epsom Derby - Golden Sword - 1pt E/W 50/1

2009-06-06T12:28:00.003+01:00

I think Golden Sword is overpriced at 50/1. He ran an excellent trial, winning the Chester Vase. This proves he stays the Derby trip (1m 4f), a doubt for many of the other Derby runners. The consesus is he 'stole' the race from the runner up, which has detracted many from looking at the strict form of the race (which I believe is underated). The race was run in a quick time and the form was franked via the Oaks yesterday. He is likley to have a front running role (like in the Chester Vase) and could easily grab a place.

I tried to have 2pts E/W at Victor Chalder, but was limited to 1 pt E/W.... I guess it is only one of the biggest flat horses races in the world!

Lay off Button/Brawn bets made with UK bookies.

2009-06-03T21:06:00.006+01:00

Those who follow my blog will know I was heavily involved with Button/Brawn pre-season at 'fancy' prices after the testing at Jerez. I believe that the next 2 races (Turkey/UK) will suit the Ferrai & Red Bull teams so I am taking the opportunity to lock in the profit made on bets with UK bookies (bets I am confident will be paid out if they win). I've therefore had the follwoing bets:

Original UK bets:

2pts Brawn at 80/1 (Corals)
4 pts E/W Button at 40/1 (Corals), 1.5 pts E/W 40/1 Button (Boylesports), 1 pt Win Button at 40/1 (William Hill)
(all Max Bets allowed online)

Layoff bets - Brawn:

8 pts at 13/2 with Stan James for Brawn NOT to win the F1 Chmaionship (this was a special price quoted on request from me). (Max allowed).
Lay at 1.23 won Brawn at Betfair to win 80 pts is Brawn do NOT win (risk of 18 pts).

If Brawn Win (1/4 chance), I win 160-8-18=134 (=£3.35K)
If Brawn Lose (4/1 chance), I win 52+80-2=130 (=£3.25K)

Layoff bet - Button:

44 pts at 4/1 on Button with William Hill NOT to win F1 Championship (thsi bet iss availible online, a great price as the Betfaire lay price is 1.33)

If Button wins (1/4 chance), I win 260+55-44=271 (=£6.78K)
If Button loses (4/1 chance), I win 176-12=164 (=£4.1K)

I have not include the US bookmakers for certain reasons that will become clear ... the phrase 'papable error' is coming into play :(

O'Brien Derby Specials -First 4/First 5 in the Derby

2009-06-01T18:26:00.010+01:00

The field has been confirmed for the Derby at the 5 day declaration stage and it as as follows (O'Brien horses in bold).

Fame And Glory 3-1
Sea The Stars 7-2
Rip Van Winkle 6-1
Gan Amhras 8-1
Black Bear Island 8-1
Masterofthehorse 14-1
Kite Wood 25-1
Age Of Aquarius 25-1
Crowded House 28-1
Golden Sword 33-1
South Easter 40-1
Montaff 50-1
Debussy 50-1

I think he has a real chance of at least having the first 4 home. (I could probably do some statistical analysis to prove it - any voulnteers?). I have therefore backed two possibilities (not mutually exclusive).

Aiden O'Brien to have the first 4 home - 1pt @ 20-1, 1 pt @ 28-1
Aiden O'Brien to have the fisrt 5 home - 1pt @ 50-1, 1 pt @ 125-1

(The lower prices are still avilible at willhill.com (first 4), vcbet.com (first 5)).

RSS feed

2009-05-31T15:14:00.004+01:00

I've had a couple of requests for an RSS feed ... so I've added one. Just click on the icon to the right to subscribe using your preferred RSS update method. Can someone let me know if it works OK!

This will mean that you'll know when I update my blog.

France Open - Women - Carla Suarez Navarro - 3pts win 100-1,1 pt Place (E/W 1,2)

2009-05-25T09:57:00.003+01:00

I think there a major doubts about most of the leading contenders in the Womens French Open. I've therefore found an outsider who could be value. Spaniard Suaraez Navarro has excellent clay form and saves her best performances for Grand Slam events. She made the QF here last year, and has a reasonable chance of progressing further this year - the 25-1 at William Hill looks more correct.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carla_Suarez_Navarro

I did want to have 2pts E/W at 100-1 but Ladbrokes restricted me to 1 pt E/W. I've had the other 2pt win at 120-1 at Centrebet.

Turin v Genoa - Genoa to win - 6-1 - 10 pts win

2009-05-24T11:43:00.004+01:00

I normally steer clear of betting on individual footabll matches as the markets are usually very accurate. The only time I believe there is significant value is at the end of the season when bookies tend to underprice those teams who have to win (e.g. Sunderalnd V Chelsea where Sunderland are poor value).

Seria A is notorious dangerous to bet on at the end of season as results that would favour both teams are especially short (e.g. a draw in the Chievo v Bologna match today at 4-7!). I don't lay these 'short' prices as the results seem to occur just as often as the odds suggest.

Despite these reservations, Genoa must be fantastic value today at 6-1. The bookies has priced this match up assuming Genoa have nothing to play for. Genoa (currently 5th) have already secured a Europa League place but realistically need to win this game to have a chance of finishing fourth and getting a Champions League Place. The Genoa manager has given no hint that he will be taken this game easy - his pre-match commnent state quite the reverse. Turin are 17th, just above releagtion, and will be desperate for three points but wanting three points and getting them are two different matters.

P.S. I've also had 4 pts on Tottenham at 6-1 to beat Liverpool at Anfield today. This is primarily a cover bet as I have backed (earlier in the season) the following results:
- Liverpool to go undefeated at home
- Tottenham to finish 7th
both of whcih (as aa minimum) require a Tottenham win. I also don't think Tottenham are bad value at 6-1.

Irish Open - John Daly - 2pts E/W 1,2,3,4,5 - 66/1

2009-05-13T19:10:00.003+01:00

Exiled for 6 months from the US Tour, (new slimline!) John Daly showed he was back to form with a 2nd last week in Italy. He has a good links record (he won the Open at St. Andrews) and is reasonable value at 66/1 for the Irish Open. He will be keen to prove his doubters wrong, having been reduced to selling T-Shirts outside the US Masters (and looks like could probably do with some golf winnings).

John Terry FGS - Chleseas v Barcleona - 25/1 - 2pts E/W

2009-05-05T22:04:00.003+01:00

John Terry has a habit of scoring critical goals in European/International matches. With a weakened Barcelona defence, he has an excellent chance of scoring in the Champions League Semi Final. I'd make him a 16/1 chance at most for First Goal Scorer. The 25/1 at Ladbrokes/Corals is good value.

ATP Serbian Open - Troicki - 1.5 pts win 33/1

2009-05-04T10:43:00.004+01:00

Troicki has a chance of doing well in the Serbian Open. It is a relatively weak tournament as many of the leading players have taken a week off between the two Masters tournaments (only 5 of the top 50 are there).

Like Djokovic, it is a 'home' tournament for Troicki - hence I think Troicki will raise his game for this (he won his last tournament on home soil). Djokovic is no certainty to beat Troiki if /when they meet (they are the the same half of the draw). Troicki won their only previous encounter in 2007 and like Djokivic has progressed well since then.

I make Troicki a 16/1 chance (at most) - I would have had 4pts win, but PaddyPower restricted me to 1.5pts.

Premier League - Boro to beat Man Utd - 4 ps - 7/1

2009-04-30T22:09:00.002+01:00

Man Utd are planning to field a weakened team on Saturday against Boro (see manutd.com). I think the 7/1 is the price assuming Man Utd will field a full strength side. With a weakened Man Utd side, I'd make Boro 9/2 chances. I'm therefore having 4 pts at 7/1.

Eurovision Song Contest 2009 Update - Germany - 1pt E/W - 300/1

2009-04-29T22:02:00.006+01:00

Last month, I had the following bets (the current new best prices are in brackets):

Ukraine - 50/1 (28/1)
Russia - 66/1 (50/1)
Serbia - 250/1 (100/1)

However, as stated in my post, there is no real way to tell how the 50% jury vote will influence the result. I've therefore had a new bet which may payoff if the jury vote becomes unexpectedly significant. I've backed Germany at 300/1 with Boylesports / Stan James (a 'cheeky' 1pt E/W). They have both cut this price, but 200/1 is still available at BlueSq.

After the disaster of 'No Angels' last year, they German public have selected a poor man's Ricky Martin called Alex Swings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAuk8qGImA&feature=channel_page

However, he may have more chance than you would expect by the fact that he has persuaded Dita von Teese to perform with him.

http://www.thelocal.de/society/20090429-18951.html

Darling to say "sorry" in 2009 Budget Speech - 5pts - 8/1 - Extrabet

2009-04-21T22:35:00.004+01:00

This is a hard market to call (both for bookies and punters alike). I have a feeling (and it is no more than that) that politically it might make sense to use the word "sorry" in his speech. He could say the word in many ways, i.e. "I'm sorry that the opposition feels that way about my excellent work" or "I'm sorry that my predictions last year make me look like an idiot now".

"Sorry" was used by Gordon Brown last week to put a lid on the last scandal and could again be used in this speech. Ladbrokes were going 7/1 - they are now into 4/1. Extrabet opened at 10/1 (which I missed).

9 or fewer Classified Cars - Chinese F1 Grand Prix - Centre Bet - 4 pts 16/1

2009-04-18T19:31:00.003+01:00

For there to be 9 or less classified F1 finishers, you need a combination of collisions, mechanical faults and, most importnatly, rain. There is a > 50% chance of rain tomorrow in the Chinese Grand Prix. What is also important is that it will not be a monsoon (like in Malsyisa) but relatively light rain. This will be enough to cause cars to leave the track, but not enough for the race to be cancelled.

I think Centrebet are generous in offering 16/1 on there being 9 or less classified finishers. With forecast rain, I'd make it a 4/1 chance.

Eurovision Song Contest 2009 Preview

2009-04-12T17:34:00.002+01:00

Those of you who are long term followers of my blog will know that my recent bets on the Eurovsion song contest have been hopelessly bad. In 2007 I backed DJ Bobo with 'Vampires are Alive' only to see it not even make it out of the semi-finals. In 2008, I switched to a betting strategy based on regional block voting, based on the analysis from Oxford University.

'How does Europe Make Its Mind Up? Connections, cliques, and compatibility between countries in the Eurovision Song Contest'

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0505071v1

This was the correct strategy, but I made a poor selection (Belarus) using this strategy. This year I have completed more detailed analysis using the same 'regional' strategy. From this work, four countries stand out based on results in the past 5 years - I've listed my stakes next to each:

Greece (8/1) - 0 pts (price too short)
Ukraine (50/1) - 4 pts E/W
Russia (66/1) - 4 pts E/W (have the benefit of having pre-qualified to the final)
Serbia (250/1) - 2 pts E/W
(E/W terms 1/4 1,2,3)

(20 pts staked in total)

Norway are a ludicrously short price at 6/4. Although I have listened to the above four songs, I've made no attempt to judge which songs will receive the most votes (a previous mistake of mine). These four countries were all considerably shorter in the betting last year, when they all did well. This is a worry as this implies that the market is a good guide (not good when you are backing at long prices!).

http://www.youtube.com/user/esc2009tv

I suspect the reason why these countries are made longer prices this year is that the voting process has changed. This year, half of the votes from each country will be decided by the public and half by a jury. It is unclear how this will affect the votes cast, so I have not tried to factor in this change. At least half the votes will be cast as previously and arguments could made for both greater and less bias with a jury involvement.

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/home

3.45 Kempton - Something - 4pts E/W Ladbrokes

2009-04-11T10:20:00.002+01:00

I am convinced that Something should be one of the favourites in this race. He showed he returned to form last time on heavy ground (tired at the end of race) at Haydock when he was well backed. If he reproduces his Polytrack form (2/2 at Lingfield), he will win this race easily. He could be incredibly well hancicapped.

At 33-1. he is excellent value - I've had 4pst E/W (Ladbrokes have limited me to 1.5pts, so I've placed the other 2.5 pts E/W on at a slightly shorter price at Betfair).

Justin Rose to lead after Rnd 1 of Masters - 40-1 - 2pts

2009-04-09T07:38:00.004+01:00

To do well in the Masters, it is critical you are experienced around Augusta. Therefore it is no surprise to find the leader/joint leader after the first round for the last three years has been been the same player (Justin Rose). Can lightning strike a fourth time? There is no reason to think not, which is why I'm having 2pts at 40-1 on Justin Rose leading after Round One.

In the outright market I have already backed Mike Weir at 80-1. I am reasonably happy with this bet. I don't like to have more than one bet in any event, however if they make a reasonable start I'm considering having further bets on Phil Mickleson (9-1), Sean O'Hair (66-1) and Nick Watney (50-1) (who also has an excellent chance of leading after Round 1 at 40-1). Karlsson could make a play for top European at 14-1.

No. of finishers in Malysian Grand Prix to be 9 or less - 13/2 - 4 pts win

2009-04-02T20:56:00.004+01:00

With rain forecast for the Malysian Grand Prix, there is a very real risk that we will see a low number of finishers in the Malaysian Grand Prix. Of the 20 runners, 14 finished in Melbourne and I therefore think the number of finishers in the humid Malysian environment could easily drop the single figures. I've therefore had 4 pts at 13/2 with Centrebet on this. N.B. I can't see any other bookies operating this exact market.

Weymouth to beat Barrow - 9/2 - 4pts Ladbrokes

2009-03-29T13:56:00.003+01:00

I generally avoid betting on individual football matches, especially in the higher divisions where the prices are typically extremely accurate. I'm making an exeception today by backing Weymouth to beat Barrow at 9/2. Weymouth have had well documented financial problems, but substantial progress has been made in this area. This has meant that the first team players who departed how now been (partially) replaced by some reasonable on loan signings.

Barrow are a poor side and Weymouth are great value at 9/2 to beat them at home - I'd have made it a 9/4 chance at most. I've had 4pts at Ladbrokes on this (who now go 7/2) - 4/1 is still avilible at Boyelsports (there are as short as 3/1 at William Hill).

Australian Grand Prix - Toyota to win - 20/1 - 2pts Bluesq

2009-03-27T17:06:00.003Z

Those who have been folllowing my blog will know I have backed Brawn GP (and Button/Barrichello separately) at 'fancy' prices for the 2009 F1 Sesaon. One of the reasons I think they will get off to a 'flyer' is the rear diffuser. This is being used by Brawn GP, Toyota and Williams. (I just hope any points wonare not removed by the FIA on appeal).

The value in Brawn GP for the Australin Grand Prix disappeared with their repeated execllent pre-season testing perfoemnaces (I actually think they are proabbly poor value now for teh Australian Grand Prix). However, there is still value in Toyota ito win the Australian Grand Prix. I backed them at 20/1 pre Friday testing. After a reasonably successfuil testing last night, they are now top priced 12/1. This is still a fair price - I'd make it now a 6/1 chance.

I probably should have also backed Rosberg (williams) at 50/1 prior to the race yesterday. He ran well as Melboune last year and could also make good use of the rear diffuser. Disppointed to have missed the 50/1 - I've no interest at 8/1

Lewis Hamilton to fail to win a race in F1 2009 - 2.5 pts - 5/1 Bluesq

2009-03-27T16:57:00.003Z

As has been well documented, there have been many changes this year in the F1 rules and regulations. This has meant the likelihood of a radical change in points achieved is perfectly possible. With the McLaren cars looking currently uncompetitive, it is unlikely that Hamilton will win a race early in the season. McLaren will clearly be working hard to improve their car, but with limted testing this year they may well struggle. The 5/1 at Bluesq on Lewis Hamilton not winning a race this year is good value - I'd have made it a 3/1 chance.

F1 Season to be decided in Abu Dhabi (Final Race of Season) - 1.5 pts (William Hill)

2009-03-27T16:38:00.005Z

6 of the last 8 F1 Championships have been decided at the last race of the season. At present it seems that the F1 Championship is competitive, so it seems as likely as ever that the Championship will be decided on the last race (at Abu Dhabi this year). Skybet go 11/10 on this happening. The 11/4 at William Hill is oustanding value - I've tried to have 6 pts on but have been limited to 1.5 pts. I'd make it a 4/6 chance - Skybet go 4/6 on it NOT happening.

NASCAR - Food City 500 (Bristol) - Carl Edwards - 12-1 - 4pts Win - expekt.com

2009-03-22T17:37:00.005Z

Carl Edwards has a reasonable record at Bristol and showed his car is working well by finishing second in last night's race in the Nationwide series. He qualified poorly for tonights race, but these places can easily be made up in a race. The 12-1 that expekt.com are quoting to win the race is more than fair - I'd make him an 8/1 chance. Remember, although form is temporary, class is permanent!

Porto to win Champions League - 66/1 - 2pts E/W Coral

2009-03-22T17:21:00.003Z

Can Porto get past Man Utd? Possibly - Man Utd have suffered a dip in form and Porto are currently first in the Portugese League (admittedly not the strongest league).

By backing Porto E/W for the Champions League, you get 66/1 for the win part (a fair price) and 22/1 if they finish second (Coral offer E/W terms of 1/3 1,2). This compares favourably with the 14/1 they are being separately quoted to make the final. Hopefully they will meet Villarreal in the semi final!

Villarreal - 6pts E/W Champions League - Ladbrokes - 28/1

2009-03-21T18:29:00.008Z

As much as it pains me to write this (being an Arsenal supporter), Villarreal are value in the Champions League 2009 Market. Although we are down to the last eight, some bookies are still offering E/W terms of 1/2 1,2. I've therefore backed Villarreal at 28/1 (2pts E/W) at Ladbrokes.

Villarreal are currently 4th in La Liga. The win part of the bet is a fair price, but I can't see they are a 14/1 chance to make the final - I'd make it a an approx 8/1 chance (it is 10/1 on Betfair) . They should not be significant outsiders against Arsenal and there is always the possibility that Porto will beat Man Utd in the other Quarter Final. I asked Ladbrokes online for 4pts E/W but they restricted me online to 2 pts E/W. I've therefore but the 4pts E/W on at one of their shops! (Making a total of 6pts E/W).

P.S. I've also had 1.5 pts on Dunfermiline to win the Scottish FA Cup at 28/1. I think this should be a 14/1 chance.