James Collins - 1st Goal Scorer - West Brom v West Ham - 1pt E/W - WIll Hill

James Collins has scored 2 goals in 13 appearances (both 1st goals). For this goals/games ratio, he is good value at 40-1 at William Hill.

I'm having 1pt E/W.

Update: Collins was rested, so it is stakes returned.

William Hill Greyhound Derby - Larkhill Jim - 200-1 - 1pt win - Betfair

Larkhill Jim (trained by Seamus Gaughan) ran a very respectable 28.85 over course (Wimbledon) and distance (480m) on April 22. This is a similar time to to previous runs over the 480m in Ireland.

I've looked at the previous 10 runnings of the Derby at the average winning time is 28.67. Therefore Larhill Jim would need a little improvement to feature in the final but, if he gets there, by trading on Betfair I will be able to lock in a profit.

Position after 18 Weeks

After 18 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 287
Points returned on settled bets= 440
Profit on settled bets = 53.3 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 34

Steve McClaren - another trade! (Lock in 16pts profit).

At the risk of boring everyone with this, I've just laid Steve MClaren at 1.92 (24pts staked) to lock in a (further) profit of 16pts.

I thinl they final opportunity for trading on this market will be if there is a false rumoumour regarding an announcement having been made. I;m sure an announcemnet WILL be made this week... the FA can't let this go on much longer!

3.20 Sandown - Betfred Gold Cup - 2pts win Risk Accessor (Betfair)

Risk Accessor is an unreliable horse but has the ability to win a rac e like this. After diving out of the course the last time he was at Sandown, he had 2 repectable runs at Chelteham and Aintree. He is a short as 12-1 at Stan James (25-1 Betfred), but I'm taking a chance at 33-1 on win only at Betfair.

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - New trading opportunities.

I reckon there may be more twists and turns in the next England Manager market. Due to my previous trades, I've backed 6pts on Steve Mclaren @ 7.6.

I think there may well be an opportunity to lay Scolri at 1.3.... it is possible that, for whatver reason, the FA can't come to an agreement with him (e.g. if they wish to mnake an immediate announcement (.e before the World Cup) which the Portguses FA won't allow). In this case there will be an opportunity for further trading!

5pts win Alonso - San Marino Grand Prix - 4-1 Betfair

Although Alonso is back in 5th on the grid, he is the class of the field this year. Provided he is not held up too much by the Hondas (and Massa), he is likely to overhall even money favourite Michael Schumacher.

4-1 is a great price, I'm having 5pts win.

Luis Garcia - 1st Goal Scorer - 14-1 Liverpool v Chelsea- 2pts

Both Gerrard and Garcia have good goals/matches ratios. Although Gerrard is the proverbial 'big game' player, I've a slight preference for Garcia due to the fact he will probbaly play in a more forward role today than usual.

The 14-1 at William Hill and Victor Chancdler is more than fair... I'm having 2pts on 1st goalscorer.

Sunderland (8-1) to beat Portsmouth - 2pts win.

Portsmouth are playing much better recently, and are the 'obvious' choice to win this game. They are in despearate need of the points, unlike Sunderland who have nothing to play for.

However, everything in betting depends on value... and, at as short of 1-3, they are no bet. Instead, I'm siding with Sunderland at the generally availible 8-1 to pull off a shock win.

Jon Wong - 1st Elimination - 9-1 - Paddy Power Irish (Poker) Open

Vincent Mellin an Ian Woodley have both too many cjhips and to much experience to go out early. Therefore the only other value options are Brendan Ruane, Conor Smth, Jon Wong and Paul Daly

Paul Daly is rightly favourite for first to be eliminated. However, at 1-7 he is too short. To stay in Paul Daly will nee top double up twice, but he will have planned the correct time to move all his chips in.

Brendan Ruane has signficantly more chips than Conor Smith, so he is avoided. It therefore comes down to Conor Smith and Jon Wong, with marginal preference for Jon Wong as, in a head up with Conor Smith, Jon will be out if he loses (which wouldn't be the case the other way around).

I can see Conor and Jon playing perhaps too patiently waiting for Paul Daly to be eliminated.

A much better price is 9-1 on Jon Wong to be eliminated first.

Crawley - Top Run Scorer - 2006 - County Championship - Select 9 - 4pts win

Ladbrokes have formed a market with a selecetd 9 County Championship Players.

These are Hussey (Notts), Knight (Warwicks), Smith (Middlesex), Lehman (Yorks.), Loye (Lancs), van Jaasveld (Kent), Adams (Sussex), Benkenstein (Durham) and Crawley (Hants).

Crawley scored the highest no. of runs last year (although it was relatively close) so I would make him an apprxoimately 6-1 chance. For some reason Ladbrokes make him the 12-1 outsider!.... I'm having 4pts win @ 12-1 (another option was E/W 1/4 1.2.3, which is very fair).

Irish Grand National - 1pt win Supreme Developer - 40-1

The Irish Grand National is a very open race with many horses in with a chance. I think the favourite should be taken on. I've backed Ferdy Murphy's Supreme Developer @ 40-1, but you can make a case for several others.

First Goalscorer - Chelsea v Everton - Leon Osman - 25-1 (BlueSq) - 1pt

Leon Osman is likely to play in a (fairly) forward position today. He has netted 3 goals in the past 5 games. Although Chelsea are heavy favourites, this is more than compensated by the 25-1 availible on Lean Osman.

I'm not having much luck on first goal scorer bets at the moment, hopely this will change today!

Snooker , World Chamiponship - additional bets (Market Mistakes)

Interwetten have not updated their prices on the Snooker World Chamionship, even though some of the fisrt round matches are complete. I'm therfore tacking advantage of this by adding the following bets to my portfolio:

4 pts win Shuan Murphy @ 9-1 (currently 5-1 elsewhere)... from my previous post, I'm not a massive fan of his, but 9-1 is too good to miss.

0.5 pt win Mark Williams @ 20-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere)

I am also tempted to add Ken Doherty @ 25-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere) , but I already have 4pts on him at 28-1 at William Hill via the 'Rest of the World' market.

Cricket - Divison One - Nottinghamshire - 4pts win - 5-1

Nottinghamshire are (very solid) joint favourites at a generally available 5-1 for Division One. They where champions last year (from Hants, Sussex), and I can see no reason why the same team should not go close again.

Position after 16 weeks.

After 16 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 259
Points returned on settled bets= 401
Profit on settled bets = 54.8 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - Close Position - Lay @ 1.65

Im now closing my position on next England Manger (Steve Mclaren). In my post on 12/02 /2006 , I staked 2pts at 33/1. I'm now laying this back at 1.65 making a locked in profit of 40pts.

I've been caught on previous Next Manger markets in the past, so I am glad to be able to close out my position!

First Goalscorer - Bolton v Chelsea - William Gallas - 33/1 - 1pt

William Gallas has scored 4 goals this season and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 33-1 for 1st goal scorere ... I'm have 1pt win.

4pts - 28-1 - William Hill - "Rest of The World" Winner of Snooker World Championship

O'Sullivan is a weak favourite for this tournament. The most solid bet is John Higgins who has clearly the strongest form this season. However, he has a tough draw with O'Sullivan and Williams in his quarter (in the ).

The of the draw is weaker. Murphy has a easy draw, but returning first time champions have a poor record. Ebdon has a strong World Championship form, but his recent form is weak. The other quarter has 3 potential champions in Doherty, Hawkins and Stevens. I'm most keen on Doherty as he has both current form and World Championship form. The latter is usually required, the former is a benefit.

I think William Hill have made a mistake on their price for 'Rest of the World' Champion. The term 'British Isles' has several meanings. William Hill have confirmed with me that their interpretation of Btitish Isles does NOT include Republic of Ireland. Therefore, when backing 'Rest of the World' you DO get Republic of Island players.

I will therefore have running for me (@28-1)

Doherty
Robertson
Wattana
Fu

(and any others I've missed!).

Verizon Classic - Pat Perez - 80-1 - Ladbrokes - 1pt E/W

Although most of the favoured golfers in this event has reasonable chances (Cink, Olazabal and Davis Love), I'm siding with Pat Perez. He recent performance at the TPC was impressive and last year he made a solid appearance in this event.

Non particpants from the Masters haave a poor record .... the only downside.

Update : Bet365 incorretly stated to me on Thusrday evening that I would get refunded. However, within their rules, as Pat Perez had started the tournament), this bet should have been setteld as a loser. For this Blog, I'm going to mark it as a loser (as if I had no refund).

However, I woud like to give a note of thanks to Bet365 for honouring their mistake. I have a feeling that I may have an issue with William Hill coming up.......

Man Utd v Arsenal - Senderos first/last goalscorer - 66/1 Bluesq.com

Senderos has scored 2 goals from 16 league appearances and as such is overpriced at 66-1 for first/last goalscorer. I'm having 0.5 pts on each.

Grand National - Haut De Gamme 28-1 - 1pts win

I've already placed 4pts at 13-2 on a JP McManus winner 2 months ago. I'm adding that today with 1pt win on Haut De Gamme.

I think there are problay 5-6 potentails winners, with Haut de GAmme the longest price. I;m steering clear of anything > 28-1.

Basle Cente backs to cause havoc. 0.5 pts first goalscorer Majstorovic, Smijanic

Majstorovic and Smijanic have both execlllent goals/games ratios for centrebacks. For this reason, i;m having 0.5 pts on each of them for 1st goalscorer.

0.5 pts Majstorovic 50-1 Ladbrokes
0.5 pts Smijanic 66-1 Bet365

US Masters Portfolio

My Masters bets are the following

Mickleson - 3pts win 9-1 betsson.com (are they the new sportsinteraction.com?)
Goosen - 3pts win 12-1 willhill.com
Howell - 1/2 pt win 66-1 sportsinteraction.com (they they the old betsson.com?)
Olazabel - 1/3 pt win 80-1 betsson.com
Weir - 1/3 pt win 80-1 betsson.com

Approx 7 pts staked in total.... any winner returns wins 28pts i.e. I have an approx 4-1 chance on these 5 runners. I may do some trading during the Masters as well.....

McManus 25-1 E/W 1pts Will Hill.

McManus has scored 5 goals since 1st Jan 06. I've placed 1pt E/W at WillHill @ 25/1 - they have favourable E/W terms of 1/2 1,2,3.

Cris - 50/1 Bluesq.com - 1pt First/Last Goalscorer

My namesake Lyon Central Defender Cris has sscored 2 goals this season. Milan are weak from set pieces, so he is a more than fair price at 50/1 with BlueSq.

I'm having 1pt on first and last goal scorer.

Position after 14 weeks:

Position after 14 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 238
Points returned on settled bets= 331
Profit on settled bets = 39 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 52.5

3 Months in, and things are going to plan....I'm trying to aim for a 40% proft - not too far off!

I missed 2 big price winners in the past 2 weeks (that I should have had):

- Blythe Night (william Hill Lincoln, 33-1) - tipped to me by a shrewd horse racing judge... howveer, I already had placed 2 bets on teh race so decided against having a 3rd
- Fabregas - 25-1 first goalscorer ((Arsenal v Juventus)... had been noting his recent goals, and excellent play, especially Europe.

Antepost Horse racingbets are looking good, for the National and the Order of Merit

Baseball - World Series - St. Louis Cardinals. - 2pts Win SportingOdds.com

St. Louis have a reasonably good chance of winning the World Series this year - I;d make them an approx. 8-1 chance.

Sporting Odds are going a standout price of 10-1... if St. Louis beat Philadelphia tomorrow night, I expect them to be approx. half this price.

Boat Race - Oxford or Cambridge to Sink - 33-1 1pt SportingOdds

In the past 60 yeasr there have been 2 events where a boat has sunk (3 sinkings, the latest in 1978). Therefore this price would be right for an average year

However, with forecast rough weather, I am sure this should be an approx. 12-1 chance... Sporting Odds are taking a serious risk by quoting 33-1. *Glances up at weather*

Masters - 80-1 Olazabel - Betsson.com 1/3 point win.

I managed to find a 'rick' at Betsson... they were going 80-1 on Olazabel for the Masters next week, when he was generally 33-1.

However, Betsson have generously allowed me 1/3 of a point (£8) before cutting the price to 28-1. I only tried to put 4pts win on :) ....

I'm sure I will have further bets, but this bet is a start (even if it is only for 'buttons').

First Goal Scorer - Andy Robinson LVD Vans Trophy Final - 1pt win 10 - 1 - Stan James

The 2 best fisrt goalscorer bets on the LDV vans trophy both paly for Swansea and are:

- Lee Trundle (5-1, 20 goals in 29 appearances)
- Andy Robinson (10-1, 11 goals in 23 appearances)

Both are value bets, but I've a slight preference for Andy Robinson due to his strong peformance in Cup Matches.

Ralf Schumacher 0.5pts 125-1 E/W Sporting Odds.

Ralf Schumacher has a shorter than 25-1 chance of making the podium.... it is probably an approx. 10-1 chance. By backing him E/W @ 125-1, my reasoning is that you are getting 12.51-1 on the podium and a free win bet!

Ralf will need multiple withdrawls, but this is possible with potenbtial crashes at the first corner.

Apologies for the late posting of this bet.... for this who want proof of my bet I'llpost it below!

Arsenal v Aston Villa - Fabregas, Eboue First/Last Goal Scorer

Arsenal are rightly strong favourites against a weak Aston Villa side. I'm backing the following for both first/last goalscorer:

Fabregas - has looked dangerous recently and scored in midweek in the Chamions League - 1pt First and Last Goalscorer @ 18-1 (Bet365)

Eboue - Has scored once thsi season and relishes coming forward... has a fearsome shot - 0.5 pt First and Last Goalscorer @ 40-1 (Corals)

Ward - First/Last Goalscorer - Watford v Crystal Palace - 0.5 First/Last - 40-1

Crystal Palace Defender Darren Ward has scored 5 golas this season (4 first) and is good value at 40/1 with Stan James for First/Last Goalscorer.... I am having 0.5 pts on each.

Rollins (50-1) & Ridings (80-1) for Bellsouth glory.

I fancy Rollins and Ridings to play signficant parts in the Bellsouth Classic. Both have the gamnes to suit Bellsouth. This is a course for long hitters.

Ridings is 4th on driving stats and, not surpsingly, a liking for this course (6th, 14th on previosu starts). Course form is why I've picked him over newcomers Bubba Watson and JB Holmes (who I wouln't put anyone off backing)

Rollins has strong recent form this year (in the Buick and Nissan) and reasonable driving length - ignore is 2 latest attempts as he was out of form. In 2002/2003 he had top 6 finishes.

I've had 1pt E/W on Ridings @ 80-1 at Paddy Power (1/4 1-6) and 1pt E/W @ 50/1 at sportsinteraction. (1/4 1-4).

India v England - MoM - Singh - 2pts 16/1 Bet365

India are more lilely to win the 2nd ODIOo, so it pays to side with an Indian player for MoM

Singh was MoM in the 1st ODI and there is no reason to think why he doesn't have an equally good chance in the 2nd ODI. He has the ability to rip through a batting side and should be closer to half this price.

I'm having 2pts win at Bet365 @ 16-1.

Sam Hornish - Indy Racing League - 9/2 - 10pts

Sam Hornish is the Michael Schumacher of the Indy Racing League (or is it the other way around?). A supremely naturally taleneted individual, the improved equipment he will have this year means he should be clear favourite.

I expect him to win tonight (1st race of the season) and shorten to approx 2-1.

I've had 10pts (Max Bet) at 9-2 on Sam Hornish at Stan James. Bet365 are (apparently) opening this market after the 1st race tomorrow.

McManus (Celtic) 1pt E/W First Goalscorer (Will.Hill) 20-1

McManus has scored 5 goals since 1st Jan 06, including 2 in the last 2 games. Celtic are heavy favourites and should score 3 goals against a weak Livingston side.

I've placed 1pt E/W at WillHill @ 20/1 - they have favourable E/W terms of 1/2 1,2,3.

William Hill Lincoln, 2 against the field.

An always competitive race has made even more tricky because of uncertainty the draw. For that reason, I'm siding with the following two outsiders from different parts of the track:

1pt E/W Sew n So Character - 33/1 - Ladbrokes
1pt Win Bendedict - 28/1 Corals - (this would have been 1pt E/W if Coral had taken a bet greater than £25 on there guranteed prices!).

Score with Premiership Defenders.

I've placed the following goalscorer bets today on the Premiership at Will Hill who have favourable E/W terms:

Terry (Chelsea) - 16-1 1pt win, 0.5 pts Place - Scored in midweek.
Hyppia (Liverpool) - 33-1 0.5 E/W - scored last weekend
De Zeeuw (Wigan) - 33-1 0.5 E/W - looks like scoring very soon...

I've also placed a 0/5 E/W treble on the above.

A wekeaned (through illness) Man City side will be no match for Chelsea.

Everton's away form isn't great - they have been lucky on several occasion. The retun of Sissoko makes Liverpool's already strong midfiled even stronger.

Wigan v West Ham will be a close game.

Post Rd 1: TPC - Joe Durant - 100/1 1pt E/W Blue Sq.

After 1 Round, Joe Durant is -3, 4 off the lead. Although he has not got a great record this year, he was placed at Sawgrass last year. The reason for this is is execllent driving acuracy (he is currently 4th on the US tour for this). This is the key atttibute at Sawgrass, so I thing it is a reasonable possibility he can sneak into a top 4 place.

The only worry is a late tee time on Friday but hey, you can't have everything at 100-1!

For the more adventurous of you, he is currently trading at 200-1 on Betfair... I'll have another point on this, if it is matched overnight.

Snooker - China Open - Hawkins - 40/1 2pts E/W

The China Open has a very lopsided draw. For this reason, it makes sense to back a player in the top half of the draw.

Ding Jun Hui is very short at 6-1. He won this last year at 66-1, and although he has a fine record in the Far East, 6- 1 is no value.

There are few other player of merit in the top half. However, I think Barry Hawkins is great value at a standout 40/1 at StanJames. He is an up an coming player who is just coming onto the bookies radar, having made the semi-finals of teh Welsh Open.

He has a tough 1st round opponent against Stephen Hendry. However he has won the last 2 encounters with Hendry, so I have high hopes of him getting through the 1st round. He is then likley to meet Ding Jun Hui in the semi-finals, having beaten the winner of Stevens/Williams enroute.

I think he has a great chance against Ding Jun Hui, haven beaten him recently in the World Chmaioonship qualifier.

I'm having 2pts E/W on Barry Hawkins @ 40/1

Football Treble... oppose weakend teams.

The following teams are playing against weakend teams:

Blackburn (v Middlesboro)
(West Ham) v Portsmouth
(Man City) v Wigan

I'v placed a 1pt Treble on Blackurn (4/5), Portsmouth (4/1) and Wigan (11/4) at Ladbrokes.... only available on shop coupons.

3.15 Lingfield - Compton Bolter 2pt win - 25-1

Compton Bolter is in as good as form as ever. He likes Lingfield has come in the top 5 in the last 3 runinngs of this race. He was beaten 2 3/4 lengths last time out (in what I belive will be the key pointer for this race), but he is weighted to reverse places.

I think that he should be a single figure price (well 10/1 at most!).

I've had 2pt win at 25-1 at Bluesq.com (which has now gone), but there is still 20-1 availible at Corals.

Eveton v Aston Villa - 1st Goal Scorer - Luke Moore - 2pts win

Bet365 are going a standout 10-1 on Luke Moore (Aston Villa) to score the 1st goal. This is
a more than fair price, he has scored 8 goals in 13 league appearances this season. Im having 2pts.

Position after 12 weeks

Position after 12 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 199
Points returned on settled bets= 284
Profit on settled bets = 42.7 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39.5

3 Months in, and things are going to plan....I'm trying to aim for a 40% proft.

Mughas - 1pt win 20-1 - 4.00 Coral Cup

Mughas ran well in the race 2 years ago and I'm a great believer in backing horses with prior Cheltenham form for the festival. 20-1 looks more than fair.

1pt Win - Jessic Harrington - Leading Cheltenham Trainer - 100-1 1pt win.

Jessica Harrington may win the leading trainer trophy with 2 winners (Mac's Joy, Moscow Flyer) as the prize money will be almost certainly beat anyone else with 2 winners. 100-1 (Betfair) is probably to large a price.... I've had 1pt win on this.

2pts e.w. Luca Toni to win the World Cup Golden Boot at 33/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4).

Italy are likely to progress quite far in the World Cup (even maybe win it1). Toni is the top scorer in Serie A and has netted five in five for Italy. Although Italy have several potential strikers (e.g Vieri), but I believe his current form means he is likely to start.

I've had 2pts E/W @ 33/1... roll-on the World Cup.

Italy v Wales - No Try Scorer - 50/1 - 1pt

Italy's strong defence could be enough to hold off a weak Welsh team. The 50-1 generally availible is quite generous... I'd make it a 16-1 chance at most.

Liuzzi, Speed to star in Bahrain - 3 Figure prices for Pole (E/W) and Podium

Liuzzi and Speed in the Toro Rosso could spring a suprise in B ahrain. The V10 engines have not looked especially quick in testing over the winter, but they could be 'sand-bagging'. There is a chance (small!) that these could be the quickest cars on the track...

.... and if that happens, they will never get of the back row again with the penalties they will incurr.

I've spread 2 pts (in total) on these 2 guys across the pole/podium markets.

Kumble 12/1, 2pts - 2nd Test India v England - Man of the Match

Kumble has an excellent strike rate in home tests and is surely to big at 12-1 (Ladbrokes) for Man of the Match.

Jenson Button - BBC Sports Personality 33-1 4pts win

Jenson Button has a much greater chance than 33-1 to win Sports Personality of the year. A strong F1 Championship performance would put make him in with a leading chance. This bet will have to wait until Dec 06.

Grand Prix Championship - Jenson Button - 4pts win 14/1 - sportsinteraction.com

Jenson Button has a live chance of winning the F1 drivers championship. He is a consistent performer and the Honda has been performing extremeluy well in out of season testing.

The pre-season 25/1 has long gone (he is as short as 7/1 in places!)..... take advantage of the 14/1 on offer at US bookmakers sportsinteraction.

Position afer 10 weeks.

Position after 10 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 165
Points returned on settled bets= 162
Profit on settled bets = -2%

No big winners missed, but *nearly* backed Nadal (Dubai Open, 7-1) and Crash (Oscars Best Picture, 5-1)

Points staked on unsettled bets = 54.5

Cheltenham is looking more and more favourable - I hope that I will be signficantly up post Cheltenham in 2 weeks time... I'm hoping (!) for an approx 50 points profit at Cheltenham!

Triumph Hurdle - 2pts E/W Fair Along 25-1 Bet365 (NRNB)

The market leaders (first 4 to 5 in the betting) all have strong claims. However, at a bigger price, I'm siding with Fair Along. If you ignore his last run on soft ground at the notoriously quirky Chepstow, he has strong Cheletenham form (related to the other market leaders).

My only concern is his front-running style which may not be ideal for this race.

There is no my in my opinion he should be 25-1 NRNB... I'd make him closer to a 10-1 chance. I'm having 2pts E/W.

Queen Mother Champion Chase - Fundamentalist 25-1, Dempsey 25-1

Before I started this blog, I had 2pts E/W on Ashley Brook @16-1. He is now 8-1 :). However. I think there is still value. There are doubts about a signficant no of the leading contenders. In additions, some bookies are going Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) .

The 2 at bigger prices that I like are Fundamentalist and Dempsey.

A lot has to be taken on trust with Fundamentalist. However, there have been valid excuses for his recent come backrun(s). If he returns to form (and it is a big if), 33-1 wil look a big price.

Dempsey has more solid form and 33-1 could look very big in 1 1/2 weeks time.

Therefore I'm having 1pt E/W on both horses @ 33-1 at Bet365.

Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle - Blazing Bailey - 2pts E/W 33-1

Denman is rightly favourite for this race. However, his very strength means there is a doubt as to the participation of 2nd fav. Black Jack Ketchum.

At a much bigger price, I like Blazing Bailey. The race last weekend against Kasbah Bliss (headed for the Triumph Hurdle) could be key. Blazing Bailey will seek to avoid Kasbah Bliss and therfore is likely to take part in the R & SA Novice Hurdle. NRNB provides a protection if the horses swap destinations.

I've therefore having 2pts E/W @ Bet365 on Blazing Bailey.

N.B 3 weeks ago I'd looked at Zaiyad @ 33-1. However, before NRNB became availible (there were doubts over whcih race it would go for) it was tipped in previews! I've missed the value, it is now 10/1 :(

Update: It looks like Blazing Bailey will take on Kasbah Bliss in the Triumph Hurdle, so I will just get my stake back. .. now to find another horse for the R & SA hurdle.

Wakefield v Huddersfield - 1st Tryscorer - Torrens, 20-1 Bedirect

Betdirect are going a standout 20-1 on Torrens for 1st tryscorer. Having scored 3 tries in hs first 3 games, other bookies are closer to the mark at approx 12-1.

Betdirect also return your stake if either Semi Tadulala or Robbie Paul score the last try.

Vodafone Cup - Newbury - Redemption (16-1), Full House (25-1)

I think this is an open handicap, and I agree with Tom Segal's (Pricewise, Racing Post) analysis. Both Redemption and Full House have conditions right for them today, so at relatively big prices they are worth chancing.

Redemption 2 pts Win @ 16-1 (Ladbrokes)
Full House 1 pt E/W @ 25-1 (Blue Square)

Randhawa (16-1), Furyk (20-1), E/W double.

The 2 players I think are reasonable prices this week in the golf are

Randhawa - Indonesian Open - 16-1
Furyk - Doral Chmaionship - 20-1

I've placed an E/W double.... I guess two singles might be less risky!

Hereford v Stevenage - Obinna 2pts - 1st Goal Scorer 16-1 (Bluesq)

There is a strong possibility that ex Reading striker Eric Obinna will play up front for Stevenage. If that is the case, the (standout) 16-1 at Bluesq will look a long price.... (he is as short as 15/2 at willhill.com).

Update: Obinna didn't play before a goal was scored, so stakes returned. Bluesq had cut him into 11-1!

Monfils - 1.5 pts E/W 20-1 - Tennis Channel Open

Monfils has shown excellent form this year at Doha and Marseille. He has a kind draw and first serious test will be Murray/Kiefer in the qurater finals. The 20/1 could look generous in 7 days time...

1pt E/W 80-1 Ali Carter - Snooker Welsh Open

O'Sullivan is a worthy favourite, so it make sense either to back him or an E/W in the other half of the draw. Given you can never be guaranteed which O'Sullivan with 'turn up', my preference is for an each way shot from the opposite half.

There are several possibilities, but I am backing Ali Carter.

13-2 J P McManus winner of the Grand National - 4pts - Paddy Power

JP has the following horses entered for the National

Clan Royal - 7-1
Innox - 16-1
First Gold - 66-1
Risk Accessor - 66-1
Sport the Difference - 66-1
Ground Ball - 100-1

Paddy Power go 13-2 one of these horses wins (and any other JP horses I have missed!)

I am particularly keen on Clan Royal and Innox, both of which I think have a reasonable chance. This has to be value... Labrokes go 7-2 that one of these wins.

L'Ami - 1pt 25/1 E/W Cheltenham Gold Cup

I was impressed with L'Ami's run today in the Racing Post Chase. As expected he has cotracted in price at all UK Bookmaklers to (a top priced) 16/1.

Therefore, I'm please to be able to back the horse at an (unchanged) price of 25/1 at US Bookmakers sportsinteraction.com (global markets, don't you love them!).

This will be the final horse in my portfolio for the Gold Cup

- One Knight - 40/1
- Cornish Rebel - 33/1
- L'Ami - 25/1

All E/W... hope the Newbury Henessy form holds up.....

France v Italy - 1st Try scorer, Any Italian, (7-1), Lay France at 1.03 on Betfair.

Which France side will turn up? Even within games they have played both outsanding and hopeless Rugby. The bookies haven;t woroken up the the strength of the Italian side (compared to previosu sides). They are defensively very well organised and can score 1-2 tries per game.

I considered Italy 'on the handicap', but have instead decided on a different strategy:

- 2pts An Italian being 1st Tryscorer (7-1 generally)
- 2pts lay of France @ 1.03 (Betfair)... if Italy look like they have a reasoanble chance of winning at any stage (e.g become odds against) I may well lock in a profit... I'll post as an update any trades I mnake during the match.

Iris Bleu - 2pts win, Racing Post Chase - 22-1

Iris Bleau has one over this course/distance and will be suited by the soft groun. Martin Pipe is returning to form, so although this is a competitive race (all the markets leaders have chances), the 22/1 looks more than fair.

I was planning to go 1pt E.W but there has been a withdrawl, leaving 15 runners.

Arjan de Zeeuw - 1st Goalscorer - Carling Cup final at 50/1 (Hills - 1/2 1,2,3)

I'm having 1pt E/W on Arjan de Zeeuw to score the first goal in Carling Cup final at 50/1 (Hills - 1/2 1,2,3). He has been close to scoring on a couple of occasions recently and Man Utd. look vulnerable in defence to headed goals.

Millenium Royal - Rendelsham Hurdle - 1pt E/W 16-1

I think this is a great E/W bet (1/5 1,2,3) at totesport.com... not sure if they are going to pay me out on 3 places though! Doumen is proably gearing his campaign to the Stayers Hurdle, but Millenium Royal may still be fit enough.

There are enough doubts about the others horses for this to be a fine bet - I'm having 1pt E/W.

Rollins - Chrysler Classic 2pt win - 18-1

John Rollins has the strongest recent form and should be clear favourite for this tournamnet (most top players are at the WGC). The generally availible 18-1is more than fair... just disappointed I missed the 25-1 earlier in the week.

I'm having 2pts win.

WGC - 4 against the field (One per Quarter)

I'm having 1 pt win on each of the following, in order of confidence (they are in separate quarters):

Chris DiMarco - 33/1
Nick O'Hern - 66/1
David Toms - 25/1
Darren Clarke - 33/1

Just need one to win!

Champions League, 4 Timer (Day 1) - 2pts @ 20/1

I've placed a 4 timer on the following results:

Real Madrid to beat Arsenal
Liverpool to beat Benfica
Bayern Munich to beat Milan
PSV to beat Lyon

This pays approx. 20-1... not a certainty by any means. I've gone with the teams in form...

Peter Cavanagh - 1st Goal Scorer - 25/1 Accrington Stanley

Peter Cavangh has a strong goal scoring record (primarily via penalties.) The 25-1 at Paddy Power/Stan James is more then fair for 1st goalscorer.

Blackwell to sparkle! (Top Batsman/Bowler)

Blackwell may well make a signficant contribution to England's peformance v India (3 Tests). The fact there are only 3 tests also means that a realtive outsider is more likley to do well on top batsman/bowler markets.

I having 1pt win (20/1) at Totesport for 'Top England Bowler' and 1pt E/W (40/1) at Ladbrokes 'Top England Bowler.

Memphis Open - Max Miryni - 1pt E/W 33-1

Miryni is in the opposite side of the draw from market leaders Roddick and Haas, and therefore is E/W value... his first 2 matches are relatively easy so he should make it to the last 8.

Position after 8 weeks:

Position after 8 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 133
Points returned on settled bets= 157

Profit on settled bets = 24 pts/15%... not as much as I would like, but I've missed a couple of big prices winners in Football (Eagle (Watford) 1st Goal Scorer, 25-1) & Golf (Oberholser, Pebble Beach 33/1) , mainly due to work pressure.... which would have made a big difference to my profit level.

Points staked on unsettled bets = 33.5

Cheltenham is looking more and more favourable. I'd be very disappointed if I didn't finish significantly ahead.

Chelsea v Colchester - Robert Huth first/last goalscorer - 33-1

Robert Huth is a generous 33-1 for first/last goalscorer with William Hill. In a weakend Chelsea side he is playng centre back and will come up for set plays such as corners... likely to play a similar role to John Terry (in his place) in these situations.

There is even a possibity that at the end of the match, if Chelsea are drawing, that Huth will be moved up front, making the last goal scorer part of this bet particularly good value.

I'm having 1pt on each.

Tottenham v Wigan - Ledley King - 1st/2nd Goal Scorer - 25/1 - Double Whammy!

With 3 goals this season (all 1st goals!), Ledley King is a good bet @ 33-1 for 1st Goal Scorer. However, take the 25-1 at Skybet where they have a special offer on 'Skybet Live' matches where they payout on both 1st and 2nd goal scorer.

I'm having 1pt @ 25/1

Newcastle v Southampton - 1st Goal Scorer - Emre - 16-1 2pts

Emre has looked dangerous in recent matches and is a more than fair price at 16-1 (Betfred) to score the first goal (Newcastle are heavy favs. todo this). I'm having 2pts.

Liverpool v Man Utd - 1st Goal Scorer (Ronaldo), 1st Booking (Crouch)

Ronaldo has scored 7 goals form 17 games this season and his fair value @ 12-1 with William Hill for 1st goalscorer. Crouch is overpriced @ 33-1 for 1st booking (4 fro 20 this seaon). He is 12-1with Ladbrokes, the other firm to have priced up this martket.

I'm having 2pts on Ronaldo (1st Goal) and 1pt on Crouch (1st Booking)

Whereareyounow - 3.25 Uttoxeter 20/1 - 2pts win

Whareareyounow won this race last year off a 4lb higher mark, therefore the course/distance suits. He shoudl be able to handle the 'heavy' ground (he has won on soft). He has been out of form recently, but, if he returns to form he has a good chance of winning this.

This is a definte win bet (not each way) as there are 15 runners and he will probably either finish first or last! I'm having 2pts win.

Brentford E/W @ 400-1 FA Cup

'Mad Dog' Martin Allen's Brentford have a reasonable chance of making the next round by knocking out Charlton. If this happens, and they get a home draw in the next round against a weak premiership team, 200-1 to make the final will look big.

Speculative even by my standards (!), but I'm having 0.5 pts E/W @ 400-1.

Nissan Open - Sabbatini 1pt E/W 40-1

Sabbatini is in great form this year (not out of top 20 in 5 tournaments including 2 2nds). He also has course form having finished 2nd 4 years ago (and 2 other top 15 finishes).

I'm having 1pt E/W at the generally availible 40-1.

Royal and Sun Alliance Chase - Star de Mohaison 2pt E/W 25/1

Paul Nicholl's Star de Mohaison is an great price at 25-1 for the Royal and Sunalliance Novice Chase. I would make him nearer a 10-1 chance. He has similar form level to 'The Listener' who is 8-1. He jumps well, likes good ground and will stay the 3m at Cheltenham.

Liverpool v Arsenal - Adebayor 1st/2nd goalscorer

Skybet continue to do their double whammy - 1st goalscorer and they also pay out on 2nd goalscorer if you lose with the first. I'm backing Arsenal striker Adebayor @ 10-1 (I'm having 2pts.)

West Ham v Birmingham - Ferdinad 1st/2nd Goalscorer

Skybet continue to do their double whammy - 1st goalscorer and they also pay out on 2nd goalscorer if you lose with the first. A stunning offer. I considered Dean Ashton at 4-1 and Anton Ferdinard at 33-1; both great bets - but I am having 1 point on Anton at 33-1.

Next England Manager - Mclaren, 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

I think that Mclaren has a strong chance of being the next England Manager for the following reasons:

- English, FA have stated their preference for an English manager
- European/International experience
- Involved in FA setup - sits on the bench during matches , was originally lined up for the post.

The new 4 year contract could be seen as a negative, but I don't see it as a barrier- it will just ensure that Boro get adequate compensation.

I thnk the 33-1 @ Ladbrokes is more than fair, (20-1 at Betfair). I'm having 2pts win.

Man City v Chartlton - 1st/2nd Goal Scorer - Alberto Reira

Skybet are top priced at 14-1 for Reira (on loan from Espanyol) to score the 1st goal. That on it's own is a good bet. Playing on the left wing, he has scored 1 goal in his fisrt 4 apperances.

However, what makes this a great value bet is the fact that Skybet will pay out on both 1st and 2nd goal scorer! I'm having 2pts on Reira for 1st/2nd goalscore @ 14-1.

Wales v Scotland - 1st Tryscorer S. Williams/C. Charvis

S. Williams (Wales) has an oustanding trscoring record (25 tries from 34 caps). He is availible at 12-1 for 1st tryscorer with Stan James, but I am taking the 11-1 (2pts) at Paddy Power where you get your stke refunded if either no. 13 scores the fisrt try (Luscombe or Di Rollo).

Also value for 1st try scorer is C. Charvis with 20 tries from 81 caps. He is avilible at 33-1 but I am taking the 25-1 (1pt) at Paddy Power (for the above reason).

Sunderland v Tottenham - 1st/2nd Goal Scorer - King 20/1 (Skybet)

With 3 goals this season (all 1st goals!), Ledley King is a good bet @ 33-1 for 1st Goal Scorer. However, take the 20-1 at Skybet where they have a special offer on 'Skybet Live' matches where they payout on both 1st and 2nd goal scorer.

I'm having 2pts @ 20/1... just wish Skybet hadn't been shortest price!

England v Italy - Charlie Hodgson - First/Last Tryscorer - 25/1 Stan James

Charlie Hodgson has scored 5 tries from 23 games and is a reasonable price at 25-1 with Stan James to be first/last try scorer. I'm having 1pt on each outcome.

First Bolton Goalscorer - Jaidi - Arsenal v Bolton - 20/1

With the absence on Sol Campbell, Arsenal could be weak at set pieces. This gives an opportunity for centre back Jaidi to pick up a goal. He has scored 2 goals this season, and I'm backing him (2pts) at 20-1 at Paddy Power.

Update: Jaidi didn't play so stake returned on this.

1st Touchdown - Matt Hasselbeck 40/1 - Superbowl

Seattle QB Hasselbeck has a better than 40/1 chance of scoring the first touchdown. I;m having 2 pts with bet365 @ 40/1 on this.....

Chelsea v Liverpool - First/Last Booking - Crouch 33-1

Crouch has picked up 4 booking this season and is overpriced at 33-1 to get the first/last booking today with Betdirect... he is 11-1 and 12-1 with the 2 other bookmakers pricing up this market.

I'm having 0.5 on first and last booking.

Valbon, 1st Tryscorer - 16-1 - France v Scotland

France are most likely to score the 1st try. Valbon (France) has a reasonably strong tryscoring record and is a fair price at 16-1 (Skybet). This complements my 'Top Tryscorer' season bet of Nyanga.

I'm having 1pt win on Valbon, 1st Tryscorer.

Position after 6 weeks

Position after 6 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 105
Points returned on settled bets= 105
Profit on settled bets = 0%

No winners in 2 weeks has seen me return all my profits.

Disappointing, but looking back on the bets, most were good value (i.e. longer prices than they should have been). The only regrets I have is missing out on some Boxing bets (last weekend) and Rugby first tryscoerer bets (this weekend), where I would have had good priced winners!

Points staked on unsettled bets = 29.5

These antepost bets are looking increasingly good.. all are shorter prices than when I placed the bets.... Cheltenham is looking important for me!

Sh Boom - 3.10 Sandown - 33-1

The course/disance will suit Sh Boom for this Sandown Handicap Hurdle. The handicapper is starting to be more lenient with him so I think he has a fair chance.

I'm having 1pt win @ 33-1 (generally availible).

Man Utd v Fulham - 1st Booking - Van Nisterooy (25/1), Ronaldo (28/1)

Only one bookmaker has opened a market on this, Paddypower. I'm convinced they have priced this up wrong. Given their season no. of cards, Ronaldo should be one of the favourites and Van Nistlerooy should be mid priced in the market.

Instead, both are outsiders... Ronaldo (25-1), Van Nistelrooy (28-1). My only worry is that Van Nistelrooy seams to have cleaned up his act recently.... has Alex had a word?

I'm having 2pts win on each.

Six Nations - Top Tournament Try Scorer - Nyanga @ 50-1 E/W

I expect that approx 4 tries will probably be enough to win top tryscorer. I'm concentrating on French players (as the outright favs. for the tournament). I've selected Nyanga @ 50-1 (generally), 2pts E/W. A bit speculative (2 tries in 14 games)......

N.B. Apologies for the lateness of these (and subesquent posts... there was a problem withh www.blogger.com yesterday which meant I was unable to post my bets). Fortunately the 50-1 is still availible.