China Open - O'Brien 125/1 - 1pt E/W (Coral)

The China Open has had somewhat suprise winners in the past three years. (2007 Dott 25-1, 2006 Willimas 20-1, 2005 Junhui 66-1). I put this down to the travel (including timne zone change) an potential lack of motivation from players with the World Championships close.

The key to this event is the fact that the draw this year is relatively lopside. Therefore, the value is to pick an E/W chance from the top half of the draw. On their day, most of these players can beat each other, so it is difficult to pick one player. Howver I think I've found a good bet with Fergal O'Brien. O'Brien has only played two events this season, a narrow 1st round (5-4) loss to Steve Davis in the Shanghai Masters and a Final appearance in the Northern Ireland Trophy. It is this latter performance that interests me, when he strung togtehr the following results:

1st Rnd: bt Higgins 5-4
2nd Rnd: bt Hawkins 5-3
3rd Rnd: bt O'Sullivan 5-2
4th Rnd: bt Murphy 6-5
Final : Lost to Maguire 9-5

He has an unknown Chinese oponenet to defeat first (Xinlong) - he is 4/11 for this. If he wins that, he will play Maguire (the only top six player in the top half of the draw). If he beats Maguire, he will need 3 more wins to get to the final and 4 to win it. For these macthes he wouldn't be much of an underdog (if at all) until the Final

I've had 1pt E/W at Coral on O'Brien at a 125/1 (he is generally availible at 100/1). Bizzarly, I was knocked back from £25 E/W but was offered instead £24 E/W ?!

Can Djokovic win the 2008 Tennis Grand Slam?

The latest tournament at Indian Wells has shown that Djokovic is rapidly coming to the same ability as Federer and Nadal (if not surpassing them). I believe Federer is definately on the downgrade (a real suprise for him to lose to Fish in the Semi-Final). Djokovic was convincing in his defaeat of Nadal in the other Semi-Final.

Djokovic has already won the Australian Open and is now best priced as follows for the remaining three events:

0.125 French Open (Clay)
0.2 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.2 US Open (Hard)

Treated as unconnected events, this gives a chance of 0.005 (i.e a price of 200/1). However, I think he will have a successful year before the French Open and will start shorter. If he wins each event, I think the prices will change as follows.

0.2 French Open (Clay)
0.3 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.4 US Open (Hard)

Treated as unconnected events, this gives a chance of approx. 0.025 (i.e a price of 40/1). I'm therefore having 2 pts at PartyBets (http://www.partybets.com) at 80/1 on a Djokovic Grand Slam.

This bet should be seen in conjunction with my 8pts on Feder not to win a Grand Slam event this year at 11/2 - this how now come into 3/1.

N.B I missed a similar bet on Tiger Woods at 33/1 for the Grand Slam - he is now into approximately 10-1!

Eurovison Song Contest 2008 Preview

With an increased number of teams entering from Eastern Europe, the political dimension of voting in this event has become the most signficant factor. This means that it is highly likely that the winner will come from Eastern Europe. Other factors such as quality of song, peformance on the night, language, position in final all have less of an impact than in earlier years. These factor will simply decided which Eastern Europe act will win. For an indication of what is happening, take a look at the Eurovison 2007 results (both semi-finals and finals).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2007

(N.B The Eastern Bloc cna be sub categoried into ex-Yugoslav and ex-Soviet countries. I have not gone into this level of detail, but given the number of countries in each sub class this favour the ex-Soviet countries).

The setup this year has changed. There are now two semi finals rather then one, each comprising of 19 artists (with 10 qualifying), feeding through to a final of 25 teams (i.e with some pre-seleacted artists.)

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news/belgrade-2008?id=590

What I see happeing is the Eastern Europe factor continuing to extert influence in the semi-finals (ensuring these acts qulaify). With fewer pre-qualified acts, this makes a non Eastern Europe acts even less likley to win.

Voting in the semi finals mirrors relatively strongly the final voting. However, the semi-final voting results are a closely guarded secret - there is much mis-infomration during the days between the semi-final and final. (AS I know to my cost last year!)

In terms of selecting an artist from the Eastern Europe (Ex Soviet/Russian) block, the first 4 in the ouright betting are Russia, Serbia, Armenia and Ukraine.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/eurovision/win-market

I think you could make a case for many East European acts (i.e. they are equally bad!). I've listened to the artists/songs and have selected Belarus.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQHOgA60LlM

It is an upbeat, Eurovison style song (80s throwback?) which I think can put in a solid performance. I think is is definately a too big price. Belarus last year managed to get 6th position with a similar song, I think the same sort of position is achievable this year. I've therefore had the following bets on Betfair (prices signficnatly shorter at conventional bookies).

1pt - 375-1 Belarus to win
2pts - 74-1 Belarus to make Top 4
4pts - 11-1 Belarus to make Top 10

I am especially keen on the 'Top 10' bet - I think this price should be much shorter.

In the past I've had a good record in the Eurovison contest - however recently I've been hopeless. By focussing on regional voting (rather than the strength of song) I hope I can revert back to winning ways!

Update: I've had a couple of points raises, both of merit. Firstly, it has been pointed out that Belarus do not have unconditional support from the Eastern Bloc. Before 2006, the support was weak at best. In 2006 they did get Easteren Bloc support, primarily due to the fact the act had recently won Russia's version of Pop Idol.

All teh above is true. However, Belarus are clearly trying to repeat the success of last year as this year's act was the 2004 Russian Pop Idol winner. On balance thsi gievs me mnore confidence in this act as he has clealey demonstrated his appeal to the 'general public' (albeit in 2004).

Next US Vice President - Lindsey Graham - 40/1 (Victor Chandler)

Although the 'maths' says that Obama will defeat Clinton for the Dememocrtaic candidature, it is likely to go as far as the DNC for the votes of the superdelegates. The internal conflict this is creating within the Democratic camp means that a Republican victory has become a very real possibility.

I've alreday backed Clinton for the VP position. With the increased likelihood of a Republican success, I've take a look at possible Republican VP candidates. The market is (quite rightly) very open for this. However, there has been signficant money for Lindsey Graham at Ladbrokes to be the Republican VP candidate - they've gone into 5/1. 'Money talks' is a cliche, but like all cliches there is an element of truth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsey_Graham

Lindsey Graham has been close to Republican Candidate McCain for many years (hed backed in 200 and 2008), so his appointment would be no surprise. His southern roots would be an electoral asset to McCain.

I've therfore had the max Victor Chandler will allow me (1pt!) on Lindsey Graham for the VP position - from Ladbrokes prices (who have a shrewd political odds compiler) it should be an approxmiate 14-1 chance.

2000 Guines / Derby double.

The Dewhurst is the key race for the 2000 Guineas. However, on good or firmer ground (which is likely in May) I think Raven's Pass has a good chance of reversing form with New Approach. In the Derby, there has been significnat money for Heny Cecil's Twice Over, indicating he has progressed well over the winter.

I'm having a 2pts win double on these 2 winners.

David Beckham France Specials : What will happen first?

Skybet have opened a market on what David Beckham will do first in the England v France game. The options (and prices) are as follows:
Subbed 4/5
Score Free Kick 9/2
Hits Woodwork 5/1
Booked 7/1
Final Whistle 16/1
Sent Off 50/1

I think this market has been seriously mis-priced. If he takes part in the game, there are only two realsitic possibilities:

- he starts, then he is most likely to be subbed (although there is a small chance he would play the whole game)
- he comes on as sub, in which case the option 'final whistle' is the most likely outcome.

Whilst I think 'subbed' at 4/5 is a fair price, (I'd make it 4/6), I thnk that 'final whistle' should be an approx 6/4 chance (with the rest making up the bookies over-round). I've therefore had 1 pt (max allowed) on 'final whistle' at 6/4 (I tried to have 4pts - I didn't think I'd get any more on!). I've been told money back if he doesn't take any part in the game, according to Skybet rep. verbally to me.

N.B. To get these prices, I had to call up (my account is very 'limited' so I coudln't simply click through from www.oddschecker.com).

Malaysian Grand Prix - will it rain?

If it rains at the Malyasian Grand Prix, all hell coudl break lose. This year the F1 cars are now without traction control, and it will be more important than ever to be with driverrs who can handle the rain. I'm therefore backing Jenson Button (125/1)and Sebastian Vettel (150/1). I'm restricting my stakes to 0.5 pts E.w on both as frequently when rain is forecast it doesn't arrive.

SPOTY - Update - Ennis (4pts @ 33/1), Sotherton (4pts @ 33/1)

Those of you who are regular readers to my column know that probably my most profitable event I bet on is the UK Sports Personality of the Year. I posted this years preview in 12/2007, and outlined my preference for Olympians in Olympic Years (2008..).

Kluft has announced today that she will not contest the Heptathlon. This will give the two Bristh Heptathletes (Sotherton and Ennis) execllent chances of a Gold Medal. I have therefore had 4pts on both of these individuals to win SPOTY @ 33-1.

My complete positions (and returns) are as follows:

Australian Grand Prix - Massa - 4 pts E.W - 5-1

Massa has qualified in 4th on the grid, however it is difficult to see him finishing out of the first three in the race, bar a racing accident or reliability issues (both possible). He is 4/7 for a Podium finish which gives an indication of his chances. This makes an E/W bet on Massa and execllent bet (at 5/1) where you are getting even money on a Podium finish.

The Ferrari's were always expected to qualify behind the Mclaren cars, but the consesus is that they will have greater race pace. Massa has the possibility to pass the cars on the grid in front of him during the race (most likely during pit stops) - the 5-1 on the win is relatively generous as well. The worst case scenario for him will be to lose places at the start and see Hamilton build up a healthy lead.

Massa : Unplaced (Crash, Engine Failure) -8pts

3.30 Uttoxeter - Midlands National - Badgerlaw - 6-1 - 4pts Win, Himalyan Trail 16-1 1.25 pts Win

Badgerlaw has been targetted at this race since the autumn by Jessica Harrington who has a good record in this race (two entries, both won). Badgerlaw ran a good race stepped up in trip behind Pomme Tiepy at Navan and should appreciate another step up in trip. As a Novice he is far less exposed than the majority of the other runners in the race.

Update: At a bigger price, I've also had 1.25 pts on Himalayan Trail at 16/1 (I'm far less confident on this bet).

Result : Himalayan Trail (1st) +20pts
Result : Badgerlaw (2nd) -4ps

The straight forecast paid £138.63 .... anyone inspired enough to do this? (I wasn't!)

Can lightning strike twice?

Last weekend in the FA Cup there were some surprise results. I've looked at the prices for some of the Premiership 'outsiders' and they seem a litte too big. Nothing scientific, just a hunch really - that is proabbly why I normally steer clear of Preimership match bets!

I've placed a 0.2 pts Lucky 15 (total stake 3 pts) on the the following results:

DERBY COUNTY @ 16/1 - Derby County v Manchester United
READING @ 14/1 - Liverpool v Reading
SUNDERLAND @ 27/4 - Sunderland v Chelsea
MIDDLESBROUGH @ 12/1 - Arsenal v Middlesbrough

Barclays Premier League 07/08

Results

DERBY COUNTY (Loss)
READING (Loss)
SUNDERLAND (Loss)
MIDDLESBROUGH (Draw)

Result : -3pts Loss

Chletenham Day 4

1.40 Coral Cup
County Zen - 4pts Win - SP (approx. 7-1 at current market prices) (unplaced)

4.40 Grand Annual
My Petra - 4pts Win - 9/2 (2nd)

2pts Win double

All bets at William Hill who return your stake on all Cheltenham races is Kauto Star/Denman finish 1/2 in that order.

42 : pts staked
26 : returned (including stake)
16pts loss

Cheltenham Day 2/3

I made my way through ten (10!) Cheltenham races for Thusrday, and I have come up with the following bets:

12:30 National Hunt Race
Pass It On - 40-1 - 2pts E/W (William Hill) 1/4 1,2,3 (brought down, unplaced)

3.30 World Hurdle
Blazing Bailey - 15-2 - 4pts Win (Paddy Power) (unplaced)
Kasbah Bliss - 9-1 - 4pts Win (Paddy Power) (2nd, stake returned)
Stakes returned if horse is second to Inglis Drever

4.05 Racing Post Plate
Patman Du Charmil - 25-1 2pts E/W (Ladbrokes) 1/4 1,2,3,4 (unplaced)
5.15 Kim Muir
Jaunty Times - 33-1 2pts E/W (William Hill) 1/4 1,2,3,4 (unplaced)

Cheltenham Day 1

I've taken some time to study the racing, and I've decied to focus on the first three races (the non-handicaps). I've had the following bets: (Update : Results in bold)

2.00 Supreme Novice Hurdle
Muirhead - 8-1 - 4pts Win (Unplaced)

2.35 Arkle Chase
Kruguyrova 16-1 - 2pts Win (2nd)
Mahogany Blaze 14-1 - 2pts Win (Unplaced)
Marodina 40-1 - 1pt Win (Unplaced)

3.15 Champion Hurdle
Punjabi - 40-1 - 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2,3) (3rd)
Blythe Night 66-1 1pt Win (Unplaced)

F1 2008 - Nakajima to win (without Ferrari/Mclaren) - 3pts E/W - 40/1

Ferrari and Mclaren are set to domainte F1 2008, and the betting markets reflect this. Therefore, for value bets I've looked beyond this market to 'Betting without Ferrai/Mclaren' at Ladbrokes (B365 have also priced it up).

The leading teams for this market are Renault, BMW, Red Bull and Williams. In recent testing it appears, compared to last year, the BMW have dropped back into the pack and these teams are running at similar paces. The odds on the drivers for these teams are:

F Alonso 7/4
N Heidfeld 7/2
N Rosberg 9/2
R Kubica 5/1
M Webber 14/1
N Piquet Jnr 14/1
D Coulthard 16/1
K Nakajima 40/1

I think the bet has to be Nakajima. The Williams have progressed well over the Winter and performed well in recent testing. The difference in price between his teammate Rosberg (9/2) and Nakajima (40/1 )is too large. Nakajima performed well previosuly in GP2, being awarded 'Rookie of the Year'. His performance in his first race last year (the Brazil GP) showed his raw pace (and, less helpfully, his ability to make mistakes). I'd make him an approx 10/1 chance.

Update: Ladbrokes also have a 'hancicap' market (As below). I've had 1pt on Nakjima at 12/1 (max allowed - I tried to place 4pts).

Kimi Raikkonen (+0) 8/1
Lewis Hamilton (+7) 9/1
Felipe Massa (+15) 9/1
Heikki Kovalainen (+37) 8/1
Fernando Alonso (+45) 12/1
Nick Heidfeld (+65) 12/1
Nico Rosberg (+66) 10/1
Robert Kubica (+68) 10/1
Nelsinho Piquet (+75) 14/1
Mark Webber (+76) 10/1
David Coulthard (+79) 10/1
Jarno Trulli (+82) 10/1
Kazuki Nakajima (+82) 12/1
Jenson Button (+84) 8/1

Cheltenham Update (and tonight's boxing).

This blog has been a little quiet lately, the primary reason being I haven't found any bets worth having! Things should pick up next week with the Cheltenham Festival. I will be posting my bets each day - I probably won't put a full analysis, however I will keep a ruuning total of results with profit/loss for the meeting.

In tonights boxing, I think there is a great bet - I'm backing David Haye to win in Rnds 1-4 at 11/2 (Extrabet). I'm having 8pts on this outcome - I think it should be an approx 5/2 chance. I thing Haye has shown better form than Macarrinelli and should be a strong favourite. Haye is likely to try to win in an early rnd for the following reasons:

- to impress the American audience (who this fight is aimed at)
- he knows Macarinelli will grow stromger as the fight progesses (and could win on pts).

Result: David Haye win in the 2nd Rnd - 44ps win

Top Cheltenham Jockey - Sam Thomas - 12-1 - 4pts

Looking back over historic records, to win the Top Jockey trophy you will probably need to ride 3-4 winners (especially now the Festival is over 4 days).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_Festival

Paul Nicholls is likely to have a strong festival. Ruby Walsh is a short price for this (approximately even money) as he is Paul Nicholl's No.1 Jockey. However, in each of the Gold Cup and Champion Chase Nicholls has two short price horses (which are not significantly different in price). Therefore the Nicholl's No.2 Jockey Sam Thomas has a good chance of riding winners in these races. The added bonus is if he rides these winners, this will stop Walsh from winning the races!

In other Cheltenham races Walsh will obviously be riding the more fancied Nicholl's horses, however Thomas is likley to pick up plenty of decent rides during the week. I've therefore had 4pts @ 12-1 on Sam Thomas at William Hill.

Result: Sam Thomas had one winner (unplaced as Top Chelt. Jockey) -4pts

Clinton to be Vice President - 25-1 - Victor Chandler - 4pts

Each week the Democratic nomination process continues (and hence the closer the race is), the likelihood of a 'dream ticket' increases. As Obama is the most likley candidate for the nomination (and presidency), this makes a Clinton Vice Presidency a real possibility. If the race went as far as the DNC, I believe he would certainly be under pressure to offer it to her. They complement each other in so many ways e.g 'change' versus 'experience' (which is why the race for the Democratic candidature is so close).

The question is would she take it? I am far from certain she would (she may wish to stay in the Senate). However, she may see it as an ideal may to propel her to the Democratic Candidature in 2016.

There have been may close races for the party nomination (Kennedy v Johnson 1960, Reagan v Bush 1980) where 'dream tickets' have happened - at 25/1 I'm prepared to take a chance. Paddypower go a very short 2/1 on this happening.

Going neutral on Clinton for US Presidency

Following recent Obama victories, Clinton has now weakened to 9-2. I have therefore placed 10pts on her for the US Presidency to ensure I'm neutral in th event of a Clinton comeback. This is possible if she secures strong victories in Ohio and Texas in early March 08 - it will then all be down to the Super Delegates.

Together with my previous bets on on Obama (16-1) and MccAin (20-1), I'm sitting in a fairly healthy position!

Grand National Preview

I am a great fan of the Gerand National (from a betting perspective) as it is a race which follows trends strongly. Thius makes ist relatively easy narrrow the number of possible winners down to a handful of runners (despite the likely 40 entries). Following these trends, my two against the field are Slim Pickings (20-1) - 2pts win and Point Barrow (20-1) - 2pts win.

Interestingly, following these trends, a substantional number of the horses that have leading chance are Irish. I've therfore had 1 pt at 50-1 (Ladbrokes) on Irish having a 1-2-3. These bets are in additional to the 20-1 I have on Cloudy Lane (now a 12-1 chance) whcih, after studying the trends, I am actually not that keen on!

Milan v Siena (Serie A) - Siena to win - 9/1 - 2pts

Milan are decimnated by injuries - it looks like a great time to get with Siena for a shock away win. Milan do not have the strongest home form this season (2-5-2) (weak for a team in 5th) whilst Siens'a away form is respectable (2-2-6). Siena's overall form seems to have picked up recently with two wins out of last three, including a suprise 3-0 hone win against AS Roma in the last match.

Result: Siena Lost -2pts

McCain Grand National Specials (Paddy Power)

Paddy Power have two specials on the Grand National that have appeal:

McCain to train winner of the National (20-1)
McCain to train winner of the National and Liverpool to win FA Cup - (100-1)

The 20-1 on McCain having the Grand National winner appeals. Cloudy Lane is McCain's leading chance - he is an approximately 14-1 chance, one of the current favourites. He put up an impressive display yesterday at Ayr and he has one more scheduled run before the National. I can seem him starting 8-1 favourite. You also get Idle Talk and Bannister Lane as possible runners. Idle Talk could well run (but would not be a short price, 33-1?), but Bannister Lane is unlikley to make the race.

Liverpool are an approximate 4-1 chance for the FA Cup, so I've backed the 100-1 on the double as well. For both bets I've had the max allowed (1.5 pts).

David Beckham to reach 100 caps - 20pts - 1-2 (Corals)

David Beckham is on 99 England Caps. Capello left him out of his first squad because of fitness (the US football season hasn't started yet). However, he has strongly indicated that when Beckham is back match fit, he will play him.

http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11095_3126331,00.html

"Surely he will have played friendly matches [referring to the MLS pre-season games]and those will be important. If he is fit and ready to play then he will be part of my team."

I think Capello will be keen to play Beckham (as a minimum a substitute) to avoid the '99 caps' becoming an issuse that is raised every game and becomes a distraction. (By dropping him for the Switzerland game, he has made the point that he is not swayed by emotion).

The 100th Cap could come as early as the match against France on 23.03.08. If not, there would still be opportunities in the World Cup qualifiers starting in 09.08. I'm putting my winnings from Gerrard being the captain against Switzerland on Beckham getting his 100th Cap - with Capello's recent commenst, I'd make it a 1-4 chance.

Totesport Trophy Preview

The key trial for this race is the Brightwells Handicap Hurlde at Cheletehnam on 26.01.08. Five Dream ran an impressive trial and is rightly one of the leading horses for this race. However, at 4-1, I do not think he is value. Instead, I have bakced the second horse in the race Mohayer at 25-1 at William Hill (5 pts win). He is weighted to reverse form with Five Dream and has the additional benefit of a 7lb claimer. (He has just crept into the race off bottom weight). Mohayer is a very consistent horse and trainer McCain is in execellent form.

Update: He is now been backed into 20-1 but this is still value - I'd make hime a 8-1 chance.

I also can't resist a bet on Caracciola from the Nick Henderson stable. Henderson has a great record in this race. With the withdrawl of Jack the Giant and Amarretto Rose, Caracciola is Henderson's leading hope. He is claearly suited by the race, as illustrated by a fine 4th last year. A 2nd in the Cesarewitch in the autumn shows he still resains his form. From a 'trends' perspective (e.g. age) he is all wrong, but so was the Henderson trained Geos when he won at 20-1. I've had 2pts win on Caracciola at 25-1 (Coral).

Update: Caracciola has been backed into 14-1 - probably a fair price now.

Result : Mohayer 4th -5pts
Result : Caracciola Unplaced -2pts

Federer to win no Grand Slams in 2008 - 8pts - 11/2 - Skybet

Federer has been eliminated from the Australian Open and has the following 3 remaining Grand Slams in 2008 (listed in chronological order together with current win probabilities)

0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.5 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.6 US Open (Hard)

If they were independent events, this would give a probability of not winning any events of 0.75*0.5*.0.4=0.15 (i.e. an approx 11/2 chance). Howeve, these evenst are very much connected. With the continued threat of Nadal and the rise of Djokovic, Federer has mnore competition thatn ever before. Depending on his peformance in Grand Slam/Non Grand Slam events, the more likley probabilities are:

0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.4 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.4 US Open (Hard)

This gives a more accurate probability of 0.25 (i.e a 3/1 chance). I'm therefore having 8pts at Skybet at 11/2. N.B. They have now cut this price, but 9/2 is still availible at William Hill (which is still a fair price).

Mendes FGS - Portmouth v Plymouth - 25/1 (Corals) - 1pt

Portsmouth are a 1-2 chance for this match, hence are by far the most likely to score the fist goal. Several Portsmouth players are away on Africa Cup of Nations duty. This wll give Mendes more chence to take a more attacking role and the possibility of taking free kicks. Mendes has yet to score this season, but I think today could be the day that he gets onto the scoresheet (and hopefully scores the first goal!).

Result: Mendes did not score -1pt

Rocky Baptiste - Anytime Goalscorer - Liverpool v Havant - 33/1 - Paddy Power

I think Baptiste (Havant) is a more than fair price at 33-1 to score at anytime in the Liverpool v Havant match. I can see Havant getting a consolation goal towards the end of the match (the bookies make them 5-1 to score in the match). If Havant score, it is likely to come from Baptiste - he is Havant's main striker. I've had 1.33 points (max allowed) at 33-1.

Result : Rocky Baptiste did not score (but his striking partner did!) -1.33 pts

David Beckham to play in Premier League in 2008 - 14-1 - Bluesq -1.5 pts

David Beckham is on a long term contract with LA Galaxy. However, Newcastle may be able to persuade David Beckham to move to Newcastle (it would help his England prospects). Although it would require signficant compenstaion to LA Galaxy, the sales of (Addidas) Newcastle shirts would probably pay for the transfer and make Newcastle a global brand.

If it makes financial sense, it is likely to happen ... there are 'paper' rumours that this is at least being investigated as an option.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/2008/01/22/newcastle-chief-targets-david-beckham-89520-20294418/

Lescott Anytime Goalscorer (Everton v Chelsea) - 2pts - Paddy Power

Lescott has an excellent goals/games ratio (5 from 23 games in the Premiership) including 2 in the past 2 games. With John Terry missing, Chelsea look weaker defending set pieces. This is where Lescott is a particular threat (he nearly scored in the Chelsea v Everton 1st Leg). The 12-1 Paddypower are offering on him to score againt Chelsea in the Carling Cup semi final 2nd leg is a great price. (He is as short as 5-1 at Corals.) I'm having 2pts.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/teams/Everton.html

Result: Lescott did not score -2pts

FHM Sexist Women - 1.5 pts Gemma Atkinson - 14/1 - Bluesq.com

The previous top 3 of the FHM Sexiset women are as follows:

2007 - 1. Jessica Alba 2. Keeley Hazell 3. Eva Longoria
2006 - 1. Keira Knightley 2. Keeley Hazell 3. Scarlett Johansson
2005 - 1. Kelly Brook 2. Cheryl Tweedy 3. Angelina Jolie
2004 - 1. Britney Spears 2. Rachael Stevens 3. Beyonce Knowles
2003 - 1. Halle Berry 2. Holly Valance 3. Britney Spears
2002 - 1. Anna Kournikova 2. Rachel Stevens 3. Britney Spears

What is interesting is there are no repeat winners. In fact, only three women (Keeley Hazell, Rachael Stevens and Britney Spears) have appeared more than once in the top three. Winners tend to come from a combination of attractiveness and, just as importantly, publicity the previous year (FHM photoshoots and non FHM events e.g. popular films). Paddy Power has a full book. Those that are 10-1 and below are:

Jessica Alba 7 - 4
Keeley Hazell 3 - 1
Gemma Atkinson 6 - 1
Rihanna 8 - 1
Scarlett Johansson 10 - 1
Hayden Panettiere 10 - 1

I think Keeley Hazell should be the clear favourite - FHM and other publications give her much publicty. Keeley is fair value at 3-1. However, Bluesq quote 14-1 about Gemma Atkinson. I think her appearance in IACGMOOH may give her the publicity she needs - cetainly 6-1 is a much more accurate price. I'm having 1.5 pts (max allowed) at 14-1 at Bluesq.

Kicking King - Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2pts Win -33-1 - Betfred

Betfred have a special offer today where they are Non Runner No Bet on Cheltenham 08. I have taken advantage of this special offer to back Kicking King. He has been off with a long term injury as in shortly scheduled to return in the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on January 20. If this goes well, he will then take his chance in the either the Red Mills or the Hennessy.

The owner has said 'it doesn't work out we won't make a fool of him'. To me that means if either of these races don't work out (and that is quite likely from such a serious injury, hence the 33-1 general price), Kicking King won't be run in the Gold Cup. Hence you get your money back.

If he runs well in both races and makes the starting line up, I can't seem him starting at 33-1 - I would think a single digit starting price is more likely. With the field 'cutting up', there will possibly as few as approx. 10 runners. Kicking King would be among a handful who would have the quality to win.

Result : Kicking King did not run - stake returned

Rory Mcilroy to win the British Open In 2008 - 200/1 VCBet 1pt

Rory McIroy made an impressive appearance in the British Open in 2007, finishing top Amateur - he finished in overall 42nd place (was in 3rd place after Rnd 1.) If Rory McIlroy make substantial progress this year, I can see him starting at approx 33-1 for the British Open. 200-1 looks more than fair. He is currently trading at 100-1 on Betfair.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_mcilroy

Paris Hilton to be jailed for DUI in 2008 - 12-1- 1pt

Paris Hilton has already been jailed one for driving offecnces, I think there is a very real possibility she will get caught DUI in 2008. The 12-1 at vcbet.com is a more than fair price - I'm having one point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Hilton

Carlos Moya - 25-1 - 1pt E.W. Medibank International

Moya has made a typically fast start to the season, going out in the Semi-Final to Nadal in the last tournament (four match points not converted!). On a new surface at the Medibank, he has a reasonable chance of a strong showing. The new slower surface may not suit Blake and Hewitt, hence past strong past form can be discounted. This makes them false 2nd/2rd favourites.

I'm having 1pt E./W on Moya at the generally availible 25-1.

Result : Moya did not make the final -2pts

Luton v Liverpool - Luton to win (9/1) , Draw no bet - 2-pts

Luton have a strong home record (W8-D2-L1). Carling Cup perfomances have been imnpressive as well with wins against Charlton and Sunderland and an extra-time loss to Everton. It is though likely that Benitez may rest some of his stronger players (Torres, Gerrard). I think that the 9/2 on Luton (Draw, stakes returned) is a more than fair price.

Here is hoping for another FA Cup shock like those of yeasterday (e.g. Everton :) )

Result: Draw - Stake Refunded

Everrton to win FA Cup 4pts E.W 25-1 Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes are taking a stance by going top priced about all the shorter priced teams in the FA Cup.

I think the market has misjudged Everton's chances. They have a strong squad, an execellent manager in David Moyes and have demonstrated their form this season. (They are going well in the Premiership, UEFA Cup and Carling Cup). Moyes is likely to field a strong side in the FA Cup and Everton are surely overpriced at 25-1.

They have a relativelty straightforward home tie against Oldham. I appreciate that the top 4 have dominated this competition for the past 12 years, but I although I am keen on trends I just can't make Everton 4 to 5 times the price of the big 4. For a start, Man Utd have a tricky away tie against Aston Villa and are I far from convinced Liverpool have an easy tie away to Luton.

I've had 4 pts E/W on Everton at 25/1.

Result: Everton went out in the 3rd Round -4 pts

Boris Johnson - Mayor of London - 12pts - 7/4

The latest poll for Mayor Of London has the 2 leading candidates within 1% of each other. I believe that I am therefore effectively getting 7/4 on the toss of a coin. 12pts at Ladbrokes therefore seems a reasonable bet....

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23430437-details/Mayor+race%3A+Livingstone+and+Boris+too+close+to+call/article.do

Britney Spears to Marry in 2008 - 4pts - 8/1 - William Hill

It is distinctly possible Britney Spears will marry again in 2008. She has separated from her hisband Kevin Federline) and she is psychologiclaly prone to rash decisions Britney is reportedly 'involved' with her (male) PA Sam Lufti, with marriage a possibilty. (Other sourcs have Lufti as reportedly gay, which might be a bit of a barrier).

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22948098-5012974,00.html?from=mostpop

Britney has alreaduy been married twice (including one for 55h rs!, annulled), so a 2008 marriage is perfectly possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britney_spears

I've had 4 pts at 8/1 on this happening - I'd make it a 4/1 chance (although you can't use maths to work this one out!). It is as short as 3/1 at Ladbrokes (5/1 Skybet).

I'm still loooking at other novelty markets... no others curently strike me as great value, but still doing research.

Premiership/FA Cup Double - 12/1 - 6pts - William Hill

Prices are available for both the Premiership and FA Cup so it is relatively easy to work out what the chance of a double occuring, assuming they are unrelated events. I've done the maths and I make it an approx 6/1 chance (assuming unrelated events).

They are of course related, but if anything there is a positive correlation. A team that is strong is likley to win both events. Against this, they may also field weaker teams in the FA Cup as they are likely to also be playing in multiple competitions but I think that this is less of a factor.

Looking back in recent history, it has been achieved 3/10 years - this high rate is not suprising due to the increased dominance of the 'Big 4' clubs in both competitions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Double

Taking current odds and recent history into account, I would make thsi a 4-1/5-1 chance. I have therefore had 6pts (max. allowed) on the double occuring.

Premiership to be decided on Goal Difference - 1pt - 50/1 - William Hill

I've checked the history of the Premiership and since it's inception in 1992 no title has been decided on goal difference (15 runnings). However, three titles (94-95, 97-98, 98-99) have been decided by only 1pt, therefore I think that the 50/1 that William Hill are offering on the title to be decided on goal difference is a too big. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (this is an intuitive feel - I haven;t doen the stats anlysis to back this up- any volunteers?). No team is 'running away' with the title and conceivably any of the big four teams coudl still win. I've therfore had 1pt (max. allowed) at 50/1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Premier_League_seasons

British or Irish Trained Arc winner - 6/1 - 12 pts - William Hill

British and Irish Trianed horses have won 7 of the last 20 including 5 of the last 10Arcs. This increased domninance by British and Irish horses is primarily due to the increaed strength of the Coolmore and Godolphin breeding companies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prix_de_l'Arc_de_Triomphe

The French older horses in training in 2008 look nothing special. Therefore I think the price for a British/Irish winner should be approximatley even money - the 6/1 at William Hill looks a great bet. I've had 12 points, the max they will allow me.

(I have confirmed with William Hill that Saeed Bin Suroor's horses will be classfied as British trained.)

Congratulations to William Hill for actually being prepared to lay a proper bet (unlike many of your competitors - you know who you are!).

US Presidential Election - John McCain - 8pts win - 20/1

John McCain is a standout 20/1 at William Hil for the US presidential election. National polls indicate a upturn in fotunes for McCain, in most part due to the success of the 'surge' in Iraq. (McCain had aligned himself with the Iraq campaign).

Guiliani 21.5
Huckabee 17.3
McCanin 15.5
Romney 14.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

A poor performance by Ronmey agauinst Huckabee in the first Primary in Iowa would weaken Romney. This would leave the path clear for McCain in New Hampshire. The race for the Republican nomination would then become a three horse race between McCain, Huckabee and Guiliani. That woudl be difficult to call, hence my wish to back McCain at 20/1.

(Of course if Romney does well in Iowa, I coudl be sitting on a handful of losing betting slips!)

Hopefully, whoever wins the Republican noimination will run against Obama, meaning I will be in a win-win situtaion. Otherwise I may have to re-adjust my position by backing Clinton.

2007 - Review of performance

Above are the financial figures for 2006, 2007 and combined 2006-2007.

As you can see, the annual % profitability has increased from 50.9% to 57.1%, whilst the annual profit has decreased from £9,625 to £7,200. This was as a result of making fewer, more profitable bets. It is a delicate balance, but in 2009 I expect to bet using a similar strategy to 2008. In addition, I am also being limited in stakes for the majority of my bets - it is getting increasinly difficult to get my bets on.

I can generally get reasonable bets on at the major bookies (e.g Corals, Hills Ladbrokes), but 'bookies' (if that is wht you call them) such as Bet365 have now restricted me to £5 max. bets - I've now stopped looking at their markets.

My most successful sports are Motor Racing (all types) and Speciality bets (even better, both combined!). Politics has been the least profitable but, ironically, this is where I have probably made some of the best bets!

In terms of an Antepost position, the most important for me are

- A1 GP - I have backed Jonny Reid at 40/1 E/W (currnetly 7/2 2nd Fav.)
- Politics (Presidentail Election) - I have good positions on all the front runners other than Clinton (most bets placed thsi time last year). (Obama 11-1 (2nd Fav. 4-1), Guiliani 16-1 (3rd Fav. 6-1), Huckabee 33-1 and Gore 33-1). The Primaries should be interesting! I'm considering adding a bet on McCain at 20-1....

As ever, if you want the full .xls file, drop me an email at chris.trinder@gmail.com

Derby v Liverpool - 2pts Derby 8-1 (Draw No Bet)

Benitez (Liverpool Manager) can sometimes make strange selections/substitutions and today could be one of those days with a busy Christmas program ahead. Derby showed that they have the potential of springing a suprise - only a late equaliser ensured that they didn't take three points in their last match away to Newcastle.

Paddypower are offering a more than fair 8-1 on Derby to win with stakes returned if it is a draw. Bet365 offered 9-1 put they were only prepared to take £5 before cutting it to 8-1. Great work guys, £5 bets on Premiership games before cutting prices! Don;t give up the day job.... oops, it is your job.

Alesha to have solo UK No.1 in 2008 - 12/1 - BlueSq - 1.5 pts

I think BlueSq have quoted too bigger price on Alesha Dixon (ex-Misteeq) having a UK No.1 next year (2008). She is out of contract at present but looking to re-sign with a new label. Alesha has a new album of songs to promote and is likley to maximize sales of her album via releasing singles (whoch coudl very well go to No 1.) 2008 will be a key year - after that her SCD fame will start to taper off.

Bluesq have priced up a UK No.1 at 12-1 - Corals go a more realistic 2-1. I've had the max that BlueSq qill alow me (1.5 pts - tried to stake 4 pts.)

Osama Bin Laden to be Captured in 2008 - 1pt 33-1 - Skybet

Skybet have a number of 2008 specials. The only one I think at present is out of line is the 33/1 on Bin Laden to be captured in 2008. I would make it a 7/1 chance for the following reasons:

1. Bin Laden is likely to be in Pakistan or (less likley) Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan still remain under the control/influence of the Coalition forces.
2. He still has a large price tag on his head.
3. Several other senior Al-Qeeda operatives on the 'most wanted' list have been captured.
4. Bush would like to see Bin Laden captured before he leaves office in 2008.

Extercatte, Van der Voort and Suljovic all to win - Ladbrokes - 1pt - 200/1

Ladbrokes seem to be taking a chance on offering a 'special price' on these three darts players to win. I think the treble should be approx. 33-1. Extercatte has a real chance against Bates while Van der Voot and Suljovic are going to have to hope for off days from Lewis and Part respectively.

Will Leon be dropped by Sony BMG in 2008? - 1pt 16-1 Ladbrokes

Reality TV stars have a mixed record with future success. Winners such a Girls Aloud are still having success many years later. Most others are less sucessful. A classic 'failure' is X-Factor winner Steve Brookstein who was dropped by his record label 8 months after winning their competition.

I suspect that Leon will not have a particularly successful future with his record label. I would think that he most likley to be dropped in 2009, but if he doesn't have high sales in 2008, Simnon Cowell will not hesitate to drop him next year.

I'd make a 2008 separation a 4-1 chance (the price it is as Skybet). I'n therefore having 1pt (max. allowed) at Ladbrokes on Leon being dropped at in 2008 at 16-1.

Top Christmas Day Film - Love Actually - 6/1 - 3.5 pts (Totesport)

Regular readers of my blog will know I've backed 'To The Manor Born' as Top Christmas Day Program (at an average 20-1). By backing Love Actullay as Top Film, I've effectively got a quasi-hedge they both start at 9:30 p.m. It is of course possible that either both of neither bets could come in, but at 6/1 and 20/1 I'm prepared to take that chance.

Can Love Actually be top Chritsma Film? It is a definate possibility as it main competitors are on Chritmas afternoon. Audiences in the afternoon are signficnatly lower than in the evening. Although Love Actually will have a smaller % share of the watching audience than the afternoon films, in absolute terms (which is what is being measured) the number watching could be larger. Shrek 2 and Polar Express also clash, not heplful for films aimed at similar audiences.

I'd make Love actually a 2/1 chance and therefor I'm having 3.5 pst (max. allowed) at 6/1.

'Hat-tip' to J.O. Tobin who higlighted the chances of Love Atcually on the Betfair Specials Forum. Amongst the dross that is often posted (you know who you are!) there are interesting posts suich as this.

Update: Love Actually has moved into 4/1, still a good price.

Sports Personality Year 2008 Preview

In Olympic Years, it is best to side with those that will have success in Olympic Events. In the past three Olympiuc Years, the 1-2-3 were as follows (Olympians in bold) (2 from 4 winners, 8 from 12 places):

2004 : 1st Kelly Holmes : 2nd Matthew Pinsent : 3rd Andrew Flintoff
2000 : 1st : Steve Redgrave 2nd : Denise Lewis : 3rd Tanni Grey Thompson
1996 : 1st Damon Hill : 2nd Steve Redgrave : 3rd Frnkie Dettori
1992 : 1st Nigel Mansell : 2nd Linford Christie : 3rd Sally Gunnell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year

Past high performers in SPOTY have an execllent record futire record - being a previous winner is not a bar as Damon Hill showed in 1994/1996.

I have looked at British Olympians and the prospects for 2008 are:

Marathon: Paul Radcliffe (6/1) has an oustanding chnce of winning SPOTY 2008 if she wins Olympic Marthon Gold. She is a 5/2 chnce for Olympic Gold, but I can't help thinking she may struggle in the Beijing heat/smog (who can forget Athens, her only other Marthon failure). However, if she wins the Marthon I would be prepared to take a short price on her winning SPOTY 2008.

Heptathlon: Jessica Ennis (66/1) / Kelly Sotherton (50/1). Preference is for Jessica Ennis (she is improving each year. Kelly Sotheton continues to struggle with the Javelin. BlueSq make a Gold Medal winner from one of these two a 7/4 chance. They would be greatly assisted if the domimant force in this event (Kruft) didn't compete. This is possible via injury to her or if she chooses to concentrate ona single event (which is current rumour - I don't buy it myslef).

400m : Ohuruogu (33/1) - this is a competitive event and she may struggle to win Olympic Gold. Ohuruogu is additional tainted by the three missed drug tests.

EquastrianZara Philips (50/1), where the fact she is a Royal gives her extra media coverage and votes. She has qualified for Bejing 2008 and, if Toytown stys fit coudl put in a strong individual peformance.

Other than athletics, gymnast Beth Tweddle (66/1) and sailor Ben Ainslie (40/1) both have medal chances. Preference would be for Beth Tewddle due to her past SPOTY record and the fact Ainslie is not certain to complete in the Olympics.

(See article below dicussing medal prospects.)

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/08082007/58/beijing-countdown-british-hopes.html

Other than Olympians, other possible winners are :

Lewis Hamilton (will need to win the F1 World Chamionship) - (7/2)
Justin Rose (will need to win a golf major - (25/1)
Andrew Murray (will need to win to reach a final of a Grand Slam event, probably win it (other then Wimbledon when a final appearance might be enough) - (10/1)
Amir Khan - probably too early in his career - (25/1)

A footballer, cricketer or rugby player is unlikely as there are no major championships.

Conclusion

2 pts win Zara Philips - 50/1 (Corals)
2 pts win Equatstrian winning Sport - 40/1 (Corals) - (Corals limited me to 2pts on Zara Philips - not sure who else I have running for me!)
2pts win Jessica Ennis - 66/1 (Stan James)
1pt win Beth Tweddle - 66/1 (Corals)

There is market on Betfair that will allow trading during the year. This is especialy importnt on the SPOTY night as both Darren Clarke (2006) and Lewis Hamilton (2007) both traded at short prices and both finished 2nd. On the night coverage by the BBC can have a signficant effect. The BBC my well focus on the Olympics as, being a listed event, this is one of the few events where they have the rights to.

Any comments very welcome.... hopefully I can follow up with my success on 2006/Zara Philips (11/1) and 2007/Lewis Hamilton (25/1, laid at 1/3).

Gerrard to captain England in their next match - 9/2 Boylesports - 3pts

The three main candidates for next England Captain are Gerrard, Beckham and Terry. It is unlikely that Terry will be fit in time for Feb, 6th 2008 (the date of this game). Beckham could be selected, but Capello is not one to let his heart rule his read - if he wishes for Beckham to have 100 caps, I would expect him to bring bBeckhma on Beckham hsa substitute rather tham make him captain.

Boylesports are taking a chance with their 9/2 quote on Gerrard captining England in their next match (Vcbet go as short as 5/4).

Vettel - 4pts Win - Race of Champions -14-1 - BetDirect

Vettel has shown he is well suited to this event with an impressive performance in the fisrt part of this competion (Natiosn Cup). BetDirect are taking a chance in making him 14-1 - he is as short as 4-1 elsewhere.

X Factor - Same Difference - 5-1 - 12 pts.

I can't understand why Same Difference are 5-1. I'd make them a 6-4 chance. In most current polls they are polling similar to the 1-3 favourite Rhydian. Of course these polls cannot be fully trusted, but they have some measure of authenticity as they all seem to have the same approximate figures.

There are rumours that Same Difference polled similar to Rhydian last week which would also correlate with the current online polls.

Finally, Same Difference are singing a 'High School Musical' song which will surely appeal to the younger voting audience.

Update: 7.30 pm. The market was impressed with the first performance by Same Difference. I am taking advantage of this by laying my 5.8 'back' bet at 4.4. This means I am +16pts if Same Difference win and level if Leon or Rhydian win.

2007 UK Christmas No.1 w/o X Factor Winner - Katie Melua with Eva Cassidy - 1pt, 5-1

Katie Melua and Eva Cassidy both have strong, loyal followings. The fact their record is is a charity record (for the Red Cros) will do it no harm.

Midweek sales indicate that Katie Melua will be No.1 this week. X factor will (obviously) be No1 the following week (the week the betting relates to), but at 5-1 I am prepared to have 1pt at 5-1 (Paddy Power) on Katie Melua taking the No 2. spot behind X Factor. (Max. Allowed).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7140478.stm

The only worry is that the single is only availible at Tesco (or by download at Tesco.com) but that doesn't seem to have affected sales this week.

Xmas Day Most Watched TV Program - To the Manor Born - 16/1

Eastenders and Corrie are rightly favourites for this market, but Skybet may hve priced up the one off special of 'To the Manor Born' at too long a price at 16-1.

Last years 'race' was won by a 'one off' comedy special (Vicar of Dibly) (although a more modern comedy). An audience of approx. 12 million will probably win the event this year - this is an potentially an achievable target for 'To The Manor Born' which was highly succeful at it's peak. A 9.30 p.m. time is OK - it doesn't have a strong oppositon at this time.

The Telegraph certainly think it has chance.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/27/nxmastv127.xml

I tried to have 4 pts but was restricted to 2 pts by Skybet.

Update: It turns out that Skybet opened up at 33-1 - it had been backed into 16-1 before I took a look at the market. Ladbrokes are 25-1 on 'To the Manor Born' - I;ve had a further 2pts on this price (max allowed). I missed this price as Ladbrokes are not appearing in the odds comparison sites for this market.

Snooker Premier League Final - O'Sullivan to win 7-0, 7-1

The results of the last three Premier League finals were:

Ronnie O'Sullivan 7-0 Jimmy White
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Stephen Hendry
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Mark Williams

http://www.premierleaguesnooker.com/staticPage.asp?txtPageName=history

I'm more than happy to have 1pt at 40-1 at www.betfred.com on O'Sullivan winning tonights final against John Higgins 7-0. The quickplay format of thsi event suits Ronnie O'Sullivan and if he wins the first few frames, he mway steamroller Higgins. I've laso had 1pt at 14-1 on a 7-1 win in case Hendy nicks a frame.