Hennessy Gold Cup - Air Force One - 8-1 - 4pts Win

Air Force One had a impressive re-appearance last weekend behind Roll Along, finishing second (when not fully fit). The handicapper has been generous and only raised him 3 lbs for that run. Air Force One is being aimed at the Hennessy (a strong 'trends' race) and has has the right profile for it. Overall, I think Air Force One has an excellent chance of winning the Hennessy Gold Cup. I am having 4pts at a generally available 8-1. (I'd make Air Force One a 5-1 chance).

Brazil Grand Prix - Raikkonen - 11/1 - 1.5 pts - SportingBet

As per my post below, I think this is a much more open Brazil Grand Prix than the markets suggest. Massa is 8/13 and Raikkonen is 11/1 - this difference is far too large. I appreciate that Raikkonen starts in 4th rather than 1st on the grid and would, in many circumstances, be asked to give way to Massa but the differences in price is simply too big. I'd make the correct prices 5/4 Massa, 5/1 Raikkonen. I would have liked to have 4pst on Raikkonen, but I was restricted to 1.5 pts.

Brazil F1 GP - Hamilton to retire on Lap 1 - 20/1 - Stan James

With rain forecast, this race is very difficult to call. The one thing I am sure of is that Massa is not a good price at 8/13 to win the race. However, picking who will beat him is a lottery. I've therefore focussed on the 'speciality markets'. Unfortunately, most of these offer little value. The only one I like the look of is the 20/1 on Hamilton to retire on the first lap.

Staring from fifth, a crash on the first lap for Hamilton is a real possibility. From a slow start, either Trulli or Raikkonen could back up the field. Alonso could then easily 'unfortunately' run into the back of Hamilton. Alternatively, Raikkonen could have a slow start could collide with Hamilton - Raikkonen (Ferrai) will not back off. Hamilton will of course try an play it cautious, however from the miiddle of the pack that is easier said than done. It is also not in Hamilton's nature. Any rain would increase the probability of a crash on the first corner.

Just hoping for no start under the safety car! The other issue could be that Hamilton's car is repaired and sent out agin several laps beind if the damage is not severe (especially is there is rain and the possibility of few finshers).

I would make a Hamilton retirement on the first lap an 8/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Stan James, but they restricted me to 1 pt - if I get a chance, I will see if I can put on the extra 1pt in a shop this afternoon.

Update: I went to a SJ shop - the price has been cut to 16/1! I had another 1pt at this price.

BBC MoD Goal of the Season - David Bentley - 8/1 - Skybet - 3pts

I think David Bentley is a reasonable price at 8/1 for MoD Goal of the Season. I've looked at past winners and it is difficult to discern a pattern for the type of goals. The only common thread is the clubs the players have played for - the last 7 have played for one of the 'Big 4'. Also worringly, Beckham's goal from the half way line didn't win! Despite these two negatives, I'm fairly sure this goal will be one of the contenders at the end of the season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goal_of_the_Season

Portsmouth to be Relegated - 8pts - 50/1 - William Hill

I've just had 8pts on at 50/1 at Hills. Should be much shorter... 16/1 maybe? Only 9 games into season and with Redknapp gone and (reportedly) financial problems, if they have to sell players in the January transfer window Portsmouth could implode.

P.S. I know the bet says 4pts - I had a further 4pts on while I was writing this up as the more I thought about it, the better value I thought it was.... maybe 10/1?

Totteham Hotspur to win Premiership without 'Big 4' - 50/1 5pts E/W (14/1,2,3) - Coral

Tottenham have made a sensible decision by removing their management (and structure) and bringing in Harry Redknapp. Comolli as a Director of Football was clearly not working, as can been seen by the fiasco over strikers in the Summer. With Harry Redknapp in sole charge of footballing matters, I can see a major improvement in Tottenham's fortunes. Fifth will be a big ask, but top seven may definitely be achievable. Other than Aston Villa, there do not seem many strong clubs challenging for positions 5-7.

Changing the manager does not by itself improve the fortunes of a club, however Ramos had clearly lost the dressing room. His tactical choices this season have been strange and is continual lack of English hasn't help. Redknapp's only requirement is to keep the club up, however if he can string a series of results together he may well be looking to a UEFA position. The players he has are not inherently bad - sure Tottenham have weaknesses on the left sided of midfield and up front, but these areas can be strengthen in the January transfer window - I think it is far from impossible that you will see Defoe returning (Portsmouth may need to have a 'fire sale').

Henry the Navigator is > 20-1 in the US Pools...

The US public have gone mad for Curlin.... I've had 2pts on Henry the Navigator at an (insulting) approx 20-1. Is this Rail Link all over again?

Crowded House to win 2009 Epsom Derby - 16/1 - 2pts Labrokes

Crowded House produced an excellent display to win the Racing Post Trophy today. His acceleration in the the final furlong was 'Arazi like' and I think he will make an great Derby prospect (for which he is aimed). Horses that have won the Racing Post Trophy have an very good record in the Epson Derby. Therefore, the 16/1 at Ladbrokes for Crowded House to win the 2009 Epson Derby is a great price. I'm sure if his trainer Brian Meehen was a 'bigger' name, then he would be far shorter (5/1?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowded_House

O'Brien to train the first two home in Breeders Cup Classic - 0.5 pts - 40/1 Betfred

I have a feeling my flop in the Breeders Cup Classic (new trip, new surface). I'ev decided to take him on by backing O'Brien to have the fisrt two home in the Breeders Cup Classic at 40/1. I've tried to have 1pt, but 'fearless' Fred has only allowed me 0.5 pts!

Osasuna v Real Betis - Abella Damia - Anytime Goalscorer - 16/1 Extrabet 1pt

Midfielder Damia has scored two goals in the first four games of La Liga and his good value at 16/1 to score at anytime in the Osasuna v Real Betis game tonight. He is as short as 11/2 elsewhere....

http://www.football.co.uk/real_betis/players/abella_damia_111430.shtml

Mandleson to leave Cabinet in 2008 - 7.1 - Paddy Power - 1pt

I’ve availed myself on some of the 7/1 at Paddy Power on Mandelson to leave the Cabinet in 2008. I tried to have 4pts, but was restricted (as ever) to 1pt. I’m convinced that this week has been simply a last ditch diversionary tactic by Mandelson to save his position and that there is more (serious) dirt in Mandelson to come out at the weekend …. I suspect Brown would not mind asking Mandelson to leave, given their previous rocky relationship. Brown can then continue with his 'I've saved the world' narrative.

No European Winners (including Godolphin) at the Breeders Cup - 20/1 BlueSQ - 2pts Win

I've not had time to do the full analysis, but I think that 20/1 on no European winners at the Breeders Cup looks too big. (It is as short as 7/1 elsewhere). I'm having 2pts with Blue Square on this...

Premier League - O'Sullivan to beat Davis 6-0 and Perry to beat Hendry 6-0 (Double) - 125/1 - 1pt Ladbrokes

Last week saw to 6-0 whitewashes by Perry and O'Sullivan. It is not impossible that we could see similar result tonight.

If O'Sullivan turns up in the right frame of mind, he has the ability to beat Davis 6-0. O'Sullivan is not in great form, but he showed last week he can be the master at Premier League snooker if he turns his mind turns to it. Davis has yet to get off the mark.

Perry has played well this year in the Premier League and can turn over Hendry who has yet to score (although he has only played one game).

Bordeaux v Cluj - FGS Cuilo 1pt E/W 33/1 Blue Square

Unfashionable Cluj are being continually underrated by the bookies. The have shown with their performances in the Champions League so far that they are a perfectly capable team. They have a real chance of defeating a weak Bordeaux side tonight and, even more likley, scoring the first goal.

Attacking midfielder Cuilo had a poor scoring record last year in the Romanian League, but he seems to be transformed this year in the Chamions League. He has scored two goals v Roma. At 33/1, BlueSq are taking a real chance - he is approximately half the odds at other bookies.

Absolutely no 'Gangsta Paradise' jokes.

Wanted: Bookmakers who can take bets.

Are there any bookmakers left who will take my bets?

The latest problem I have is with Boylesports (who have previously taken reasonable bets from me). The latest MAXIMUM bet they would take from me was £0.03 (3p). Frankly, thsi is getting ludcicrous - are others having these same issues? Or is it just me?

I'm serious, if you are a bookmaker and would be prepared to take my bets, please contact me at chris.trinder@gmail.com - I'm waiting....

(Partial) Lock in of profits on NASCAR - Jimmie Johnson

Those of you who follow my blog will know I have 10 pts on Jimmie Johnson at 7/1 to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup. He is now an approximate 1/10 chance. I've persuaded Stan James to offer me 11/2 on him NOT to win. They allowed me 4 pts (max.) at this price which means I can (partially) lock in my profits. Jimme Johnson is approx 150 pts clear with 4 races to go. If he has a DNF (e.g. via engine failure) he would still be favourite but others such as Edwards/Biffle would be back in with excellent chances.

Update: I've had a further 2pts at 16/1 on Carl Edwards - I think he is the most likely title contender can could potentially come back into the reckoning tonight (where he is joint favourite with Jimmie Johnson).

John Sergeant to be eliminated (SCD) - 5th Elimination - 2pts - 7/1

John Sergeant is this years 'joke' candidate in SCD. As always, these individuals survive at least a handful of weeks (when they are typically favourite to be eliminated). The public back them enough to ensure they stay clear of the bottom 2 positions (when the judges and public votes are combined), preventing the judges from eliminating them.

This week John Sergeant is dancing the Samba, a fast pace dance that will not suit him. This means he is likely to get low judges score. When this score is combined with the public vote, he has a reasonable chance of finishing in the bottom 2 (when he will surely be eliminated). (He is helped by there being more people in his 'heat' as the male/female fields are combined, but this is offset by the elimiation in the past 4 weeks of the weaker candidates). The generally availible 7/1 is a great price - I'd make it closer to a 2/1 chance.

Scott Bruton to win X Factor 2pts win @ 40/1

I've not spent nearly enough time watching X Factor. Perhaps someone can enlighten me as to why an entry in the 15-24 male category is 40-1? I've had 2 pts on him to win to try and spark some interest for me in this contest....

Labour to win the Glenrothes By-Election - 6pts - 10/3

The result in the 2005 General Election was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenrothes_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

General Election, 5 May 2005
Party Candidate Votes %
Labour John MacDougall 19,395 51.9
Scottish National Party John Beare 8,731 23.4
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Riches 4,728 12.7
Conservative Belinda Don 2,651

The latest opinion polls in this constituency put Labour/SNP neck and neck (they were taken some time ago, before the recent financial crisis). Be warned though - most polls overstate Labour support (e.g in the Glasgow East By Election where they wwere +15% ahead in the polls and narrowly lost.) If the swing from Labour to SNP at the By Election is as large as the the Glasgow East By Election, SNP will win this seat.

The Labour candidate is not very strong, but I don't think this has a significant impact.

However, the current financial meltdown *may* well be a ‘game changer’ (like Gordon’s cancelled election, Inheritance Tax etc.) This time the 'game changer' could be in Labour's favour, rather than the previous ones which were aginst it. Votes could 'cling' Brown similar to Major in 1992 (during the last recession).

I therefore think the Glenrothes by-election in early Novemeber will be close and have taken the 10/3 at Coral on Labour (6 pts).

Update: Unfortunately, the top price you cna now get on Labour is now 9/4 (Stan James) - this is still a reasonable bet.

First Cliche said by ITV Commentators during England v Kazakhstan Match

Paddy Power have opened a market on this, any the options are as follows

Very Nice
Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
High Five
Jagshemesh
Is Nice
It's Sexy Time

(If none of these said during the match, bets are losers).

I think 'Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan' has a live chance at 25-1 (I missed the 50-1 earlier today) - I'm having 1.5 pts (max allowed). I think the ITV commentators will avoid the simpler phrases - Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan still alludes to the Borat film, but is less derogatory. My biggest concern is not that it won't be said, but that it will be said before the game.

A1GP - Zandvoort - France to win Feature Race - 0.5pts E/W - BlueSQ

A1GP kicks off today at Zandvoort. The new series (now in Ferrari powered cars) has started in somewhat of a shambles. The change of supplier means that the first race was canceled and in addition not all teams have made the second (now first!) race. As teams have had limited testing time, the qualifying for this weekend has changed compared to the rest of this season (and compared with last season!). This weekend (only), the Feature race grid will be formed from the result of the Sprint race.

France (with Luc Duval) would normally be one of the favourites for an A1GP race. However, France went off in qualifying for the Sprint race (when on a 'hot lap' and race fromn near the back of the Sprint race grid. This will mean that they will struggle to get placed in the Sprint race. However, this should give them a good starting position for the Feature race. I think the 80/1 at Blue Sq is excellent value. I've had 0.5pts E/.W (max allowed, but all punters are limited to this - I tried to have 2pts E/W).

Update: It looks like there may well be rain in the racing today - there was certainly a wet track in the 'pre-race'. A wet race makes the outcome more uncertain (hence better to be with outsiders) and accentuates the skill of better dirvers (such as Duval). I've have therefore had the following additional bets at Boylesports:

- 0.5pst E/W France for Sprint Race (50/1) (a podium for this race is now a possibility, but still unlikely)
- 0.5pts E/W France for the Feature Race
(Both the above at Boylesports).

SCD - Don Warrington - Highest Judges Score - 66/1 - 1pt - Coral

Austin Healy is rightly the favourite to score the highest judges score this week, but 1/2 is plenty short enough. I think Don Warrington may have an outside chance of scoring the highest with the judges. He put on a reasonable peformance midweek in training when dancing the Tango. The acting nature of this dance may well suit (actor) Don Warrington. I make him a 25/1 chance (at most) to top score with the judges this week - the 66/1 at Coral is more than fair.

Arc - Red Rock Canyon - 1pt E/W 500-1 - Ladbrokes

Those who follow my blog know I have 12 pts at 6/1 on a British or Irish trained horse winning the Arc this weekend ... this is looking a good bet.

However, I can't resist having 1pt E/W @ 500/1 (!) on Red Rock Canyon for the Arc. French races can have pace 'issues' and with potentially soft ground the probable pacemaker Red Rock Canyon could be given a healthy lead. A win is unlikley, but 100/1 on this horse making the first three is an insult - I'd make it a 20/1 chance on this eventuality (at most).

Eduardo Bruno Alves to score - Porto v Arsenal

Arsenal have some serious problem defending set pieces at the moment. Alves (a Porto centreback) is a typical player to take advantage of this. He has a reasonable scoring record and although Porto are outsiders for this game there is definately a possibility he could get on the score sheet.

The 80/1 for FGS has disappeared at Bet365, but 66/1 is still available at Betfred. I have had a total of 4pts invested, spread across FGS, LGS and Anytime goalscorer. N.B. I tried to have 2pts at Bet365 at 25/1 on Anytime goalscorer - they accepted a £2 max bet (I tried to have £50) and have since cut the price to 10/1. Have some balls guys!

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/players/stats?id=35997&&cc=5739

SCD - Cheri Lunghi to score 10pts first (2pts) / top scorer first (women's) elimination night (2pts)

Having watch the midweek program (It Takes Two/BBC2) where Cheri Lunghi performed well I have taken two further opportunities to back Cheri Lunghi

- Cheri Lunghi to score a judged 10pts first 14/1 (2pts win)
- Cheri Lunghi top scorer first (women's) elimination night 12/1 (2pts win)

(Both these markets are at Boylesports). I expect Cheri Lunghi to impress the judges with her Foxtrot tonight (a dance which will suit her). She could even score a 10....!) I am still not confident she can win, but a good performance in the first week will see her outright (25/1) and top women (14/1) price shorten.

NASCAR Market Update - Cover Bet on Biffile @ 6/1

Those of you who follow my blog will know I have the following positions on the NASCAR Sprint Cup

- 10 pts win (£250) Jimmie Johnson @ 7/1 (now favourite, top priced 7/4)
- 2 pts win ( £50) Carl Edwards @ 5/1 (now second favourite, top priced 2/1) (cover bet)

With 2 DNFs for Kyle Busch, the Sprint cup now looks increasingly like a three horse race between Johnson, Edwards and Biffle (the latter who was won the first 2 races of the chase). I have therefore has a 2nd cover bet as follows:

- 2 pts win Greg Biffle @ 6/1 (2nd cover bet)

It is 25/1 bar these 3 drivers, so I my position is +£1.6K on Jimmie Johnson, level on Edwards/Biffle and -£0.35K on the 25/1 outsiders.

Strictly Come Dancing - Cherie Lunghi - 25/1 (Outright) 7pts, 14/1 (Top Female) 5pts

The most critical attribute for winning Strictly is the ability to dance. After week one, it will be clear who can (and cannot) dance and the markets will react accordingly. Therefore, to be ahead of the game, I have backed Cherie Lunghi in the outright and top female markets.

She studied ballet when she was younger, so is likely to have the aptitude for ballroom dancing (and hence unlikely to go out early). Her age is a concern (winners are typically younger), but, being an actress. she is relatively glamorous. Whether the public take to her as a person is a difficult call (as it is for all entrants - much will depend on how the BBC choose to portray her).

I have had tho place my bets at several bookmakers as most had limits on the bets I could place. The strictest limit was Ladbrokes who insisted on a max £5 (=0.2 pt for me) bet for me online/over the phone..... so meant I had to go to shop where they don;t seem to be so strict on limits and place 4pts (£100)!

9 pts win Lance Armstrong to win 2009 Tour De France.

As expected/rumoured, Lance Armstrong has confirmed that he will try to reclaim the 2009 Tour De France. 16-1 is available at sportingbet.com. If he does make the lineup, that 16-1 may well look massive in 9 months time! I can see him starting even money favourite. Although he is 38 (very old for the Tour De France), he is a five time winner and he is/was a different class from the current riders.

I've had the following bets:

1pt sportingbet.com @16-1 (max allowed)
2pts paddypower.com @16-1 (max allowed)
4pts bet365.com @ 14-1 (well done guys - had to ring up for this, 0.1 pts allowed online!)

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2008/09/armstrong200809

Phil Taylor to go undefetaed in 2009 Premier League Darts - 4pts @ 10/1

Phil Taylor's record in the Prmier League darts is a s follows:

Win Draw Loss

2005 11 1 0
2006 11 1 0
2007 11 3 0
2008 10 1 3

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League_Darts)

The 3 2008 defeats were in the early part of the seaon when he had lost is form. Taylor is now back to his very best. Skybet have made him 10/1 to go undefeated next year - I would make this an even money chance! (at most). I've tried to have 10pts on, but was restricted by Skybet to 4 pts.

European Order of Merit - Henrik Stenson 4pts win 12/1

Stenson finishedthird this weekend in the KLM and has brought himslef back in contention for the European OoM. With 42 of 54 events palyed, the top six standings are as follows (with best prices):

1 Padraig HARRINGTON €2,350,556 (8/15)
2 Lee WESTWOOD €1,839,480 (100/30)
3 Miguel Angel JIMÉNEZ €1,794,092 (16/1)
4 Henrik STENSON €1,773,617 (12/1)
5 Graeme MCDOWELL €1,675,186 (50/1)
6 Robert KARLSSON €1,674,436 (33/1)

Harrington is the quite righly clear favourite, but with 12 events to go you would be a brave man to back him at a best priced 8/15 - this markets has seen significant fluctuations already this season. Prize money is biased towards the end of the season - this increases the uncertainty (and makes Harrington/Westwood players to be taken on). Westwood is way too short at 100/30, so the value has to be one of the other 4.

Without knowing the detailed entries, it is difficult to pick a single individual. However, I've decided to back Stenson at 12/1 - other bookies have hime as a (more accurate) 8/1 chance. He is currently 6th in the Official World Golf Rankings and was 4th in the Euoropean OoM last year. Stenson is currently in great form (3rd in the Open and 4th in the US PGA).

http://www.europeantour.com/

Lock in Profits on Federer for Gand Slams

Those of you who are long term followers of my blog know that in Jan 08 I backed Federer at 11/2 to win no Grand Slam events (after he had lost the first Grand Slam). He has since lost the French Open and Wimbledon. I've now decided to lock in my profits by backing himn for the US Open at 3/1. I've done this at Boylesports who refund my bet if Djokovic win (a very reasonable cash back offer). The P&L for my combined bets are shown above.

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html

Bourdfais to be biggest improver - 66/1 1pt E/W vcbet.com

The Toro Rosso cars are performing well this weekend. Having made it into Q1, Bourdais has taken the opportunity to 'high fuel' his car. If/when a safety car is deployed, this will give him more strategic options. I have therefore backed him with at Victor Chandler at 66/1 (1pt E.W 1,2,3) from 10th on the grid to be the biggest improver.

Any Other European Grand Prix - 'Other' Driver to be placed on the Podium - 5/1 (Vcbet.com) - 8pts

Victor Chandler have opened a market on what drivers will finish on the Podium for the European Grand Prix.

Felipe Massa 2/7
Lewis Hamilton 1/3
Kimi Raikkonen 1/2
Robert Kubica 11/10
Heikki Kovalainen 2/1
Any Other Driver to finish on podium (other than 7 quoted) 5/1
Nick Heidfeld 7/1
Fernando Alonso 14/1

For the reasons outlined below, this Grand Prix has an increased likelihood of an unusual result. I've therefore had 8pts on 'Any Other' driver to finish on the Podium. This bet has paid up for the last five Grand Prixs! I think it is a 2-1 chance at most.

'Any Other Driver' to win European Grand Prix (50/1), vcbet.com

Victor Chandler have formed the following market on the European Grand Prix at Valencia.

Felipe Massa 11/10
Lewis Hamilton 15/8
Kimi Raikkonen 4/1
Robert Kubica 9/1
Heikki Kovalainen 20/1
Nick Heidfeld 80/1
Fernando Alonso 100/1
Any Other Driver (other than 7 quoted) 50/1

I think 'The Field' is a great bet for the following reasons: -

- Possible rain (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0205&links)
- Toyota/Toro Rosso are making significant progress (Toyota are close to catching BMW in performance)
- Narrow road track (similar to Montreal) makes a safery car likely (1/4 chance)

All these factors increases the 'randomness of the result. I tried to have 2pts at Victor Chandler, but was limited to 1pt.

N.B. Is it just me, or is anyone else haing problems getting bets on with bookies - it seem all my bets are now being limited. It makes me laugh when you hear that bookies are apparantly prepared to stand £10K bets!

Northern Ireland Trophy 2008 - Graeme Dott 1.5 pts E/W 66/1 (Paddypower), 1.5 pts 1st 1/4 (12-1, SJ)

2006 World Champion Graeme Dott had well documented problems with depression last year causing a sifnficnat drop in form. However, his latest performance in Berlin may indicate that he has put these problems behind him,. He won in Berlin by beating John Higgins in the Semi Final (5-4) and Shaun Murphy (6-1) in the final. If he repeats this level of performance in Northen Ireland, he will be one of the leading contenders for this event. I asked for 2 pts E/W with Paddy Power, was limited to 1.5 pts E/W (even less by Stan James!)

Macguire is the favourite in 1st 1/4 (where Dott is). Macguire complained of a possible rub injury in Berlin - I'm unsuire whether this has been sorted. However, this only encourages me to back Dott. I've therefor also had 1.5 pts at 12-1 at Stan James (asked for 4pts, limited to 1.5pts).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graeme_Dott

NASCAR - Bristol Motor Speedway - Carl Edwards 2.5 pts win

Carl Edwards has qualified on pole for this race. He won this race last year and has an excellent chance to win again this year. His main rivals (Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson) did not do well year last year and have only qualified this year in 9th and 24th respectively.

I'm having 2.5 pts on Carl Edwards at Boylesports (max. allowed, I wanted 4pts). If/when Carl Edwards does well in this race he will surely shorten for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. I've therefore had 2pts at 5/1 on Carl Edwards for the Sprint Cup to cover my previous 10pts at 7/1 on Jimmie Johnson.

I am convinced the Sprint Cup is highluy likley to be between Kyle Busch (6/4), Carl Edwards (5/1) and Jimmie Johnson (6/1) with Busch too short in the betting - I;d make it 2/1, 5/2, 5/2 , 20/1 bar.

Premierhsip 'Top 4' to not lose at home in 2008/2009

Looking at the history of the Premiership since 2003/4, each year at least one of the 'Big 4' have not lost at home. The prices for this to happen for each club this year (at Corals) are:

11/2 Arsenal
7/2 Chelsea
4/1 Man Utd
6/1 Liverpool

I think these are all good prices. The trend for home losses by these clubs is decreasing (and hence the likelyhood of a club going unbeaten at home is increasing). This is dues to the gradual strengthing of the Top 4 compared to the rest of the Premiership. I think that is highly likley that a minimum one club will go unbeaten at home, with a reasonable possibility that two clubs could do this (as last year)(and an outside chance of 3/4 clubs).

I;ve had 4pst on each of these teams to not lose at home in 2008/2009

US to win most Gold Medals - 11/2 (Betdaq) - 8pts

China probably should be favourites to win most Gold medals, but the market has over-reacted to their (limted) early success. After 3 of 16 days of the Olympics (and 34 of the 302 gold medals decided), the standings are as follows:

** G S B Total

China 9 3 2 14
US 3 4 5 12

http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/INF/GL/95A/GL0000000.shtml

However, I believe the latter half of the Olympics substantially favours the US (the Athletics only starts in Week 2).

http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/Schedule/index.shtml

I am therefore suprised/pleased to see that I cna back the US at 11/2 at Betdaq to win most Gold meadls - I'd make them closer to a 2/1 chance (at most). I've therefore had 8pts win on US to win

US PGA - Stuart Appleby 66/1 - 2 pts E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4

With a rain interrupted 3rd round, I am backing Stuart Appleby at 66/1 (2pts E/W). He has completed 2/3 of his 3rd round - I think the more holes of the 3rd round completed the better. Although the greens today will be slower (a help), the fairways will be slower (a hindrance) and the rough will be harder to get out of. In addition, for those about to start their round, it will be mentally tough to play 36 holes in a day. If Appleby can post a 3rd round score of +2 (he is currently on +4) I think he could be right in the mix come in the end of round 4.

Olympic Men's Tennis - Murray/Nalbandian against the field

Totesport have offered excellent E/W terms in the Men's Tennis (1/2, 1,2,3). This has persuaded me to have the following bets:

Murray 3pts E/W (12/1)
Nalbandian 1pt E/W (33/1)
(Both Max. allowed for me by Totesport).

The surface for this tournament (which has traditionally thrown up suprise results) is 'hard', most similar to the US Open.

Murray has a straighforward path until the 1/4 finals when he meets Nadal. Following Murray's recent Cinncinati win, he will have a plausible chance of beating Nadal. (Murray is clearly 4th best in the workld right now). If he beats Nadal, I would be confident Murray would win at leat a Bronze medal (meaninng a minimum 6/1 payout).

Nalbandian is likley to meeet Djorkoff in the 1/4 finals (in the same half as Murray/Nadal). Nalbandian is a naturally gifted player who has been in poor recent form. Howvber, at 33/1 I'm willing to take a chance that playing for his country will inspire him to return to past glories.

Olympic Boxing - Light Welterweight - Bradley Saunders - 20/1 1pt Win - Betfred

Bradley Saunders has an excellent chance of winning a Gold Medal for GB in the light welterweight category. He won a Bronze Medal in the World Championships last year and won recently in Taiwan in the Presidents Cup (beating Manus Boonjumnong enroute to the final). This latest result clearly showed Saunders has recovered form his hand injury. Boonjumnong is a 3-1 chance in this event, showing what a good price the 20/1 on Bradley Saunders is. I've tried to have 4pts on with Betfred (they were the last bookie going 20/1) but they restricted me to 1 pt.

Shergar Cup - Mosse Top Jockey 8/1 (Skybet), Bet365 (Bet365)

I have completed some analysis on the top Jockey at Ascot today. (This is scored using the following system:

1st Place - 15 pts
2nd Place - 10 pts
3rd Place - 7 pts
4th Place - 5 pts
5th Place - 3 pts

(All jockeys have 5 rides. Each race is a 8 runner handicap).

I am suprised to find that Mosse is not joint favourite with Hughes. The spreadsheet above details the current prices at Betfair on his runners. I've had 1pt at 9/1 (max allowed) (Bet365 - come on guys!) and 4pts at Skybet.

Championship Special - All three relegated sides to be promoted - 50/1 Paddy Power

Although it is unlikely that all three relegated sides will be promoted, I think 50/1 is a reasonably generous price. It is not without precedent - all three relegated Premiership sides were promoted 11 years ago. Birmingham, Derby and Reading are 1st, 3rd and 5th in a (quite open) Championship betting and cases can be made for all of them to be promoted. It also 'supports' my thinking that 2nd in the betting QPR will not meet expectations. Unfortunately, I've only been allowed 0.5 pts by Paddypower.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series - Jimmie Johnson - 7/1 - 10pts win

After 20 races of the 36 race season, the current standings after are as follows:

1 Kyle Busch 3,004
2 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 2,751
3 Jeff Burton 2,733
4 Jimmie Johnson 2,689
5 Carl Edwards 2,684
6 Jeff Gordon 2,544
7 Greg Biffle 2,460
8 Denny Hamlin 2,453
9 Kasey Kahne 2,441
10 Tony Stewart 2,399
11 Matt Kenseth 2,366
12 Clint Bowyer 2,283

The current prices are:

Kyle Busch 13/8
Dale Earnhardt Jr 13/2
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Carl Edwards 7/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1

These relatively cloesely mirror the points standings, with Kyle Busch a heavy favourite.

The fact that 12 places are listed is no coincidence. Since 2004, to ensure that that the NASCAR series stays 'alive', the points are set to 5000 with after 26 races (i.e with 10 races to go) for the top drivers (top 12 in 2008). The only points benefit of winning races prior to this date is the addition of 10 pts per win for prior wins (not hugely significant). The first 'key' race is the 27th race (the Sylvania 300) on 14/09/2008 and the series finishes at the Ford 400 on 16/11/2008.

(The closest similarity I can think of is the Football League Championship playoffs).

The past results of the NASCAR (since the new scoring mechanism) are:

Leader After 26 races (final position in brackets)

2004 Jeff Gordon (3rd)
2005 Tony Stewart (1st)
2006 Matt Kenseth (2nd)
2007 Jimmie Johnson (1st)

Winner after 36 races (position after 26 races in brackets)

2004 Kurt Busch (7th)
2005 Tony Stewart (1st)
2006 Jimmie Johnson (2nd)
2007 Jimmie Johnson (1st)

The last three Sprint Cup Series have gone to a driver who was either 1st or 2nd after 26 races. (Lower down the order there is a much less strong correlation).

With 6 races to go to the 10 key races, the man currently in form is Jimmie Johnson (he is favourite this evening). He has been relatively unlucky this season so far - I think he is likely to be either first or second in the standings after 26 races. As he has won the last two NASCAR Cup series (also 2nd in 2004 and 5th in 2005, Jimmie Johnson) may well have the expeience to win a third.

I've therefore backed Jimmie Johnson at 7/1 (10 pts win) at Stan James.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NASCAR_Sprint_Cup_Series
http://www.nascar.com/races/cup/2008/data/schedule.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASCAR

Olympic 2008 - Men's Javelin - Tero Jarvenpaa - 12/1 - 4 pts win

Jarvenpaa could well spring a surprise in this event. In the recent Finnish Championships (24-27th July 2008) he shocked the Finnish public by beating the Finnish legend (2007 World Champion and World No.1) Pitkamaki with a personal best throw of 86.68m (Pitkamaki only threw 82.28m - he has 'technical problems').

1. Tero Järvenpää FIN 86.68
2. Tero Pitkämäki FIN 82.28
3. Esko Mikkola FIN 79.87

Ranked 4th in the world, Jarvenpaa could just be peaking a the right time. The other major challenger is the World No. 2 Norwegian Andreas Thorkildsen who won in Athens 2004. These three athletes filled the first three spots at the Bislet Games in Oslo in June 2008 when they finished as follows.

1 Thorkildsen , Andreas NOR 87.73
2 Järvenpää , Tero FIN 86.49
3 Pitkämäki , Tero FIN 85.92

Perhaps the Finnish public should not have been so suprised in teh Finnish Championships....

(In addition, Thokildsen threw a 87.36 in Stockholm in July 08).

I am more than happy to take a chance on Jarvanpaa at 12-1 rather than Pitkamaki at a top priced 6-4 (Pitkamaki is very much underpriced). Thokildsen is probably correctly priced at 5-2 (although he should perhaps be a 2-1 chance). I'd make Jarvanpaa approx 4-1 (at most). The other Javelin thrower at a good price is Australian Jarrod Bannister - he looks overpriced at 20-1, but I will stick to a single bet.

Youtube video of 86.68m throw (in Finnish)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvXdfPsUKCM

SPOTY Update - Paula Radcliffe 20/1 4pts

If Paula Radcliffe wins the Olympic Marathon, I would make her a heavy odds on chance to win SPOTY. The Women's Marathon has now been priced up and she is a 5/1 chance to win (2/7 to make the race). I am therfeore having 4 pts at 20/1 (William Hill) on Paula Radcliffe for SPOTY 2008. (Bigger prices are availible elsewhere but William Hill ae one of the few bookmakers where my account is not hevily restriced e.g. Bet365! allow me 45p).

My main 'runners' for me in this race are Sotherton and Radcliffe - I will produce an updated .xls showing my market position on SPOTY after the Olympics.

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational - Stewart Cink - 2pts Win -20/1

With the absence of Woods, the WGC-Bridgestone held at Firestine has a much more open feel about it. My fancy Stewart Cink won this touranment in 2004 and lost in a playoff in 2006 to Woods. Cink has been in outstanding form this season, with 1 win (the Travelers Championship), 2 2nds and 2 3rds including the Masters). He is especially strong on Par 4's of which there are (unusally) 12 this weekend, rather than the usual 10. Now he has broken his duck, I'm having 2 pts win on Cink at 20/1

USA to win most Medals in 2008 Olympics - 20pts @ 6/5

In Atlanta 2004 the Olympic Medals Total Tally for the top 3 countries was as follows:

Gold Silver Bronze Total

1. United States 36 39 27 102
2. Russia 27 27 38 92
3. China 32 17 14 63

I am very suprised to see that 11/10 at William Hill/Betfair is availible on USA. Home advantge will count somewhat, (as well as the desire of the China state apparatus to win), but for China to overturn a 39 medal deficit would be an incredible achievement. I believe that they would need to make signficant improvements in both swimming and athletics (where the most medals are), and there is no indication of this. I actually think that Russia may still retain 2nd place.

N.B. Don't make the mistake that a China medal win = a USA model loss (i.e. a net 20 medal swing is all that is required - in many cases the medals that China are targetting are not currently held by USA.

I've reviewed other people's total medal predictions and they vary from close between China/USA or a USA win. Interestingly, the China/USA 'close' predictions come from those looking at 'generic' factors (e.g. population size, per captia income etc.) Those predicting a USA win looked at most recent World Championships in the events. I believe the latter to be more accurate methodology.

I've therefor at 20pts on Betfair at 6/5 on USA and 1pt at 20/1 on Russia to win Most Medals. N.B. Don't confuse this matket with most Gold medals - in this latter market, I think China have a very good chance of winning.

SPOTY : Market Update

With the Olymnpics approaching, I have invested further on this market:

Additional 3pts on Sotherton at 20-1 (Will Hill) (adding to my 4pts at 33-1 earlier in the year).

Sotherton has sucessfully come through the last trials (with only a minor injury scare, due to mis-set hurdles!). She did enough to win the 4 event competiton, and goes into the Olympic Heptathlon as one of the favourites. William Hill have quoted her at (long) 10-1 for Gold in the event (hence why they are biggest at 20-1 for SPOTY of the year.) A Gold in this event would make her favourite for SPOTY (unless Tom Daley wins the diving).

2pts on Phillips Idowu (14-1) (Canbet)

He is now a slight odds-on chance to win the Triple Jump Gold. If neither Sotherton nor Daley win a gold, and Idowu wins a Gold I think SPOTY this year will be a head-to-head between Lewis Hamilton and Phillips Idowu. Hamilton is a very short price at 6-4 for SPOTY as he would almost certainly need to win the F1 championship to win SPOTY and even this may not be enough against a winning Olympian. The cyclists are also underpriced - the votes for them are likely to be split.

QPR to underperform against market expectations

There still seems to be a belief that the new(ish) owners of QPR plan to invest signficant amounts of money into QPR i.e do a 'Chelsea'. This can be the only reason why QPR are 1st/2nd favourites for the 2008-09 Championship. However, transfer activity this summer has made it clear the owners intend to take a longer term approach.

QPR improved their performnance in the 2nd half of last season to take them into mid-table position. A repeat of this performance would make them likely to finish approximately 7th-8th this season.

Skybet have launched a who will finsih bottom on the handicap market. The prices for this equate to the outright prices (inverted). I've therefore had 4pts at 14-1 on QPR to 'win' this market (missed the 18-1 whilst checking facts on QPR, damm.). A 7th/8th position *may* be enough to win this bet.

The full list of teams (and their handicaps) are listed below.

QPR Scr Watford +9 Coventry +19
Birmingham scr Bristol City +12 Sheff Wed +19
Reading +3 Charlton +12 Burnley +22
Wolves +3 Cardiff +15 Preston +22
Derby +4 Notts Forest +19 Doncaster +24
Sheff Utd +6 Swansea +19 Plymouth +24
Crystal Palace +7 Norwich +19 Barnsley +28
Ipswich +9 Southampton +19 Blackpool +28

Webber to win qualifying - German Grand Pix - 2pts E/W 1/5 1.2.3

In the first half of the 2008 F1 season, Webber has shown excellent qualifying pace, including a 2nd last time at the British Grand Prix. With rain a strong possibility in Germany this weekend, the generally availiblw 80/1 looks too big on Webber for qualifying. I'm having 2 pts W/W

Open Golf - Winner to be leader after every round - 50/1 Paddy Power - 1.5 pts

Paddy Power have a generous price of 50/1 on the winner of he Open Golf being the leader after every round. I'd make this much shorter, maybe a 16/1 chance. Trevor Immelman managed to complete this in the 2008 Masters. Paddy Power are a much shorter price (13/2) on the fisrt round leader to go on to win the tournamnet. I think that if a player leads the 1st round and also wins the tourmanet, he would be reasonably likley to lead after Rnd 2 and Rnd 3 as well.