Snooker - China Open - Hawkins - 40/1 2pts E/W

The China Open has a very lopsided draw. For this reason, it makes sense to back a player in the top half of the draw.

Ding Jun Hui is very short at 6-1. He won this last year at 66-1, and although he has a fine record in the Far East, 6- 1 is no value.

There are few other player of merit in the top half. However, I think Barry Hawkins is great value at a standout 40/1 at StanJames. He is an up an coming player who is just coming onto the bookies radar, having made the semi-finals of teh Welsh Open.

He has a tough 1st round opponent against Stephen Hendry. However he has won the last 2 encounters with Hendry, so I have high hopes of him getting through the 1st round. He is then likley to meet Ding Jun Hui in the semi-finals, having beaten the winner of Stevens/Williams enroute.

I think he has a great chance against Ding Jun Hui, haven beaten him recently in the World Chmaioonship qualifier.

I'm having 2pts E/W on Barry Hawkins @ 40/1

Football Treble... oppose weakend teams.

The following teams are playing against weakend teams:

Blackburn (v Middlesboro)
(West Ham) v Portsmouth
(Man City) v Wigan

I'v placed a 1pt Treble on Blackurn (4/5), Portsmouth (4/1) and Wigan (11/4) at Ladbrokes.... only available on shop coupons.

3.15 Lingfield - Compton Bolter 2pt win - 25-1

Compton Bolter is in as good as form as ever. He likes Lingfield has come in the top 5 in the last 3 runinngs of this race. He was beaten 2 3/4 lengths last time out (in what I belive will be the key pointer for this race), but he is weighted to reverse places.

I think that he should be a single figure price (well 10/1 at most!).

I've had 2pt win at 25-1 at Bluesq.com (which has now gone), but there is still 20-1 availible at Corals.

Eveton v Aston Villa - 1st Goal Scorer - Luke Moore - 2pts win

Bet365 are going a standout 10-1 on Luke Moore (Aston Villa) to score the 1st goal. This is
a more than fair price, he has scored 8 goals in 13 league appearances this season. Im having 2pts.

Position after 12 weeks

Position after 12 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 199
Points returned on settled bets= 284
Profit on settled bets = 42.7 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39.5

3 Months in, and things are going to plan....I'm trying to aim for a 40% proft.

Mughas - 1pt win 20-1 - 4.00 Coral Cup

Mughas ran well in the race 2 years ago and I'm a great believer in backing horses with prior Cheltenham form for the festival. 20-1 looks more than fair.

1pt Win - Jessic Harrington - Leading Cheltenham Trainer - 100-1 1pt win.

Jessica Harrington may win the leading trainer trophy with 2 winners (Mac's Joy, Moscow Flyer) as the prize money will be almost certainly beat anyone else with 2 winners. 100-1 (Betfair) is probably to large a price.... I've had 1pt win on this.

2pts e.w. Luca Toni to win the World Cup Golden Boot at 33/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4).

Italy are likely to progress quite far in the World Cup (even maybe win it1). Toni is the top scorer in Serie A and has netted five in five for Italy. Although Italy have several potential strikers (e.g Vieri), but I believe his current form means he is likely to start.

I've had 2pts E/W @ 33/1... roll-on the World Cup.

Italy v Wales - No Try Scorer - 50/1 - 1pt

Italy's strong defence could be enough to hold off a weak Welsh team. The 50-1 generally availible is quite generous... I'd make it a 16-1 chance at most.

Liuzzi, Speed to star in Bahrain - 3 Figure prices for Pole (E/W) and Podium

Liuzzi and Speed in the Toro Rosso could spring a suprise in B ahrain. The V10 engines have not looked especially quick in testing over the winter, but they could be 'sand-bagging'. There is a chance (small!) that these could be the quickest cars on the track...

.... and if that happens, they will never get of the back row again with the penalties they will incurr.

I've spread 2 pts (in total) on these 2 guys across the pole/podium markets.

Kumble 12/1, 2pts - 2nd Test India v England - Man of the Match

Kumble has an excellent strike rate in home tests and is surely to big at 12-1 (Ladbrokes) for Man of the Match.

Jenson Button - BBC Sports Personality 33-1 4pts win

Jenson Button has a much greater chance than 33-1 to win Sports Personality of the year. A strong F1 Championship performance would put make him in with a leading chance. This bet will have to wait until Dec 06.

Grand Prix Championship - Jenson Button - 4pts win 14/1 - sportsinteraction.com

Jenson Button has a live chance of winning the F1 drivers championship. He is a consistent performer and the Honda has been performing extremeluy well in out of season testing.

The pre-season 25/1 has long gone (he is as short as 7/1 in places!)..... take advantage of the 14/1 on offer at US bookmakers sportsinteraction.

Position afer 10 weeks.

Position after 10 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 165
Points returned on settled bets= 162
Profit on settled bets = -2%

No big winners missed, but *nearly* backed Nadal (Dubai Open, 7-1) and Crash (Oscars Best Picture, 5-1)

Points staked on unsettled bets = 54.5

Cheltenham is looking more and more favourable - I hope that I will be signficantly up post Cheltenham in 2 weeks time... I'm hoping (!) for an approx 50 points profit at Cheltenham!

Triumph Hurdle - 2pts E/W Fair Along 25-1 Bet365 (NRNB)

The market leaders (first 4 to 5 in the betting) all have strong claims. However, at a bigger price, I'm siding with Fair Along. If you ignore his last run on soft ground at the notoriously quirky Chepstow, he has strong Cheletenham form (related to the other market leaders).

My only concern is his front-running style which may not be ideal for this race.

There is no my in my opinion he should be 25-1 NRNB... I'd make him closer to a 10-1 chance. I'm having 2pts E/W.

Queen Mother Champion Chase - Fundamentalist 25-1, Dempsey 25-1

Before I started this blog, I had 2pts E/W on Ashley Brook @16-1. He is now 8-1 :). However. I think there is still value. There are doubts about a signficant no of the leading contenders. In additions, some bookies are going Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) .

The 2 at bigger prices that I like are Fundamentalist and Dempsey.

A lot has to be taken on trust with Fundamentalist. However, there have been valid excuses for his recent come backrun(s). If he returns to form (and it is a big if), 33-1 wil look a big price.

Dempsey has more solid form and 33-1 could look very big in 1 1/2 weeks time.

Therefore I'm having 1pt E/W on both horses @ 33-1 at Bet365.

Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle - Blazing Bailey - 2pts E/W 33-1

Denman is rightly favourite for this race. However, his very strength means there is a doubt as to the participation of 2nd fav. Black Jack Ketchum.

At a much bigger price, I like Blazing Bailey. The race last weekend against Kasbah Bliss (headed for the Triumph Hurdle) could be key. Blazing Bailey will seek to avoid Kasbah Bliss and therfore is likely to take part in the R & SA Novice Hurdle. NRNB provides a protection if the horses swap destinations.

I've therefore having 2pts E/W @ Bet365 on Blazing Bailey.

N.B 3 weeks ago I'd looked at Zaiyad @ 33-1. However, before NRNB became availible (there were doubts over whcih race it would go for) it was tipped in previews! I've missed the value, it is now 10/1 :(

Update: It looks like Blazing Bailey will take on Kasbah Bliss in the Triumph Hurdle, so I will just get my stake back. .. now to find another horse for the R & SA hurdle.

Wakefield v Huddersfield - 1st Tryscorer - Torrens, 20-1 Bedirect

Betdirect are going a standout 20-1 on Torrens for 1st tryscorer. Having scored 3 tries in hs first 3 games, other bookies are closer to the mark at approx 12-1.

Betdirect also return your stake if either Semi Tadulala or Robbie Paul score the last try.

Vodafone Cup - Newbury - Redemption (16-1), Full House (25-1)

I think this is an open handicap, and I agree with Tom Segal's (Pricewise, Racing Post) analysis. Both Redemption and Full House have conditions right for them today, so at relatively big prices they are worth chancing.

Redemption 2 pts Win @ 16-1 (Ladbrokes)
Full House 1 pt E/W @ 25-1 (Blue Square)

Randhawa (16-1), Furyk (20-1), E/W double.

The 2 players I think are reasonable prices this week in the golf are

Randhawa - Indonesian Open - 16-1
Furyk - Doral Chmaionship - 20-1

I've placed an E/W double.... I guess two singles might be less risky!