Eurovision Song Contest - Switzerland - 8pts win - 8/1

I belive the Swiss have a great chance in this year's Euroviosn song contest in 2 months time. To win Eurovision, you need the following

- Memorable song/routine - Finland showed last year that with the increased number of entrants a memorable stage routine is strongly preferable. I also have looked for a strong chorus. What is certain is you can't win with a poor song (e.g UK).

The Swiss song has a strong chorus and a 'Vampire' based act which could adapt well for a stage show. N.B. It may be a little too similar to Finland's act last year 'Monsters of Rock'.

- Political voting - preference for countries part of Balctic or Scandanavian blocks - the Swiss fall down on this, but at least they are neutral (unlike the UK).

- English singing - this rules out a signficiant no. of acts, although some have attempted to overcome this by at leaset singing the chorus in English. The Swiss song is in English. N.B. Take care on this, some acts sing in qualifying in their country in the native language, only to switch to English in the semi finals/finals

- Semi-Final appearance - I believe the winner of the semifinal has gone on to win this event in the past 2 years... maybe the appearance helps to improve the act. What is certain is that the semi-final results are likley to be translated in final positions. N.B. The semi final resuilts are not released before the final.

Other possibilities at larger prices are Finland (great song) and Israel (memorable Novelty song).

The songs can be viewed at www.eurovision.tv

8/1 is freely available on the Swiss - I missed the 10/1 yesterday :( - in fact, Bluesq. are going 9/1! (oops.)

Update: WillHill have moved the Swiss into 13/2.... I've had a further 4pts at Bluesq at 9/1 - I don't think Bluesq will be able to hold this price for much longer.

Next UK Chancellor - 2pts - 6/1 - Jack Straw - William Hill

Since his move to Leader of the House, Straw was worked closley with Gordon Brow. Today, Jack Straw has been asked by Gordon Brown to lead his campaign for next Labour Leader. This puts jime in a strong position for next Chancellor.

His 2 main rivals are Alistair Darling and Ed Balls. Ed Balls is the most likely of these, but due to his relative parliamentary inexperience (he only changed to an MP from adviser at the last election), I think Ed Balls will be made Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

I tried to have 10pts on this, but was restricted to 2pts! The market was then immediately taken down by Willian Hill. I am sure it will re-open soon.....not sure at what price though.

N.B. Not having a good time with getting bets on at present... tried to place 2opts on Dan Wheldon for IRL Championship at 3-1 with SportingOdds - no joy, however only succeeded in moving the price from 3/1 to 2/1... he won the 1st race last night.

Next Fench Presidential Election - 20pts win - 5/1 - Bayrou - William Hill

I have been closely following the Fench Presidentail polls over the past 4 weeks. The changes can be clearly seen on the following graph (from one of the major polling organisations).

http://2007.tns-sofres.com/evolution-intentions.php

This reslts of this poll have been confirmed by the another major polling organisations.

http://www.csa-fr.com/fusioncharts/presi2007/presi2007.html

I believe that the bookies have seriously misjudged this market. Momemtum is a key element in politics and I am confident that Bayrou can attact enough votes from both the left (Royale) and right (Sarkozy) to make the top 2 - he is nearly there now! I then believe by nature of being the centre candidate he is highly likely to win the final 2 'man' runoff - there is no great liking for either Sarkozy or Royale.

N.B. William Hill have temporarily taken down this market, however I expect it to reappear (not sure what price he will then be). Bayrou is availible at 4-1 at expekt.com - this is still at great price! (He is shorter on Betfair).

Lewis Hamilton - 10pts - Top 3 Season Finish - F1 - 5/1 (Boylesports)

Those of you who follow my blog will know that pre-season I have had 2 bets on F1 for 2007

Hamilton (25/1) - E/W
Kovalainen (33/1) - E/W

This prices are still availible and I would not put anyone off these bets. (I've also backed Lewis Hamilton at 25/1 for SPoTY!)

However, I have now found a even better bet - 5/1 at Boylesports on Hamilton to make the Top 3. Ferrai and Mclaren have been the strongest teams in winter testing. The Ferraris have been slightly stronger than the McLarens, however the difference is not great (approx. 0.3s). This could change as the cars progress over the season.

Hamilton's pace has been similar to Raikonnen in winter testing. He is a naturally gifted driver and I would rather take 5/1 on him for a top 3 finish than Raikonnen (2-1), Alsonso (9-4) or Massa (3-1) for the World Championship. There are so many changes in driver/team combinations and tyres (all now run on Bridgestones) that taking a short price is risky.

Extrabet also bet on this market and have cut the price from 9/2 to 5/2 for a Lewis Hamilton to 3 finish - this is a much more accurate price.

10pts Win - Hilary Benn - Labour Deputy Leadership - 3/1

The field for the Labour deputy leadership election is not yet finalized, but I think that Hilary Benn is a first rate bet at 3/1. The reasons are as folllows (in order of importance):

- Has an approx. 10-15% lead in the latest YouGov deputy leadership poll. The results are as follows:

http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL070101005_1.pdf

YouGov surveyed Labour Pary members and Union mebers, two of the three constituents of the leadership election (MPs are the other). N.B. A complication is that Union votes are not decideded by block vote, but I suspect that union leaders will influence how their members vote.

YouGov has a good record in these events and peformed well when predicting the Lid Dem and Conservative leadership elections.

- Hilary Benn has popular support amongst the general population, as indicated by the YouGov popularity Index where he has the highest ratings of the Labour politicians listed
- Unlike some of the other runners, has declared his intention to run
- His name recognition, being son of the iconic Tony Benn

Candidates need 44 MPs to support them to be able to stand, but I am confident that Hilary Benn will achieve this goal.

Oppose the favourites at Chletenham in the 'Big 4' Races.

I think that the favourites in the four Cheltenham Championship races are all vulnerable, namely:

Champion Hurdle: Detroit City
Queen Mother: Well Chief
World Hurdle: Black Jack Ketchum
Gold Cup: Kauto Star

I am especially against the chances of Black Jack Ketchum (ran an appalling trial) and Kauto Star (jumping issues, not a great record in a large field) with both not guaranteed to stay in their races, especially on soft ground.

Choosing horses to oppose them is more difficult. However, I have selected the following horses - prices all from William Hill:

Champion Hurdle: Sublimity (18-1)
Queen Mother: Dempsy (20-1)
World Hurdle: Kasblah Bliss (16-1)
Gold Cup: My Will (20-1)

I'm having 2pts win on each and a 0.5 pt Yankee (5.5 pts)

Cheltenham - > 6 winners with SP > 16-1 - 8pts @ 5/2

Ladbrokes have formed a market as to how many winners will be priced with an SP > 16-1. With forecast good-soft ground, I would expect that there woudl be more than normal.

The current stats are as foillows:

2006 7/24 odds greater than 16/1
2005 5/24
2004 6/20
2003 3/20
2002 6/20

Given this analysis, I think Ladbrokes are more than fair in offering 5-2 on > 6 winners with SP > 16-1. 5-6 winners is also a lively runner at 2/1, the the others are poor value.

Scotland v Italy - No Tryscorer - 25-1 - 2pts

The last 3 matches between these sides have had 2-1-2 tries respectively. With bad weather forecast, there is no reason the think there won't be similarly few tries today. I think 25-1 on no tries being scored William Hill is more than fair.....

Phil Mickleson to win 2007 Masters - 9-1 - 4pts win

Mickleson has come back to form and is likely to give Woods his most serious challenge in the 2007 Masters. Mikelson is currently top priced 9-1 at present to reain his title. If his current form continues in Feb/March, I expect that he will start clear 2nd fav. at closer to 5-1 (he is unlikley to start any bigger than 9-1).

Harrison v Sprott - Sprott to win in Points - 10-1 - 4pts

'Fraudley'/Audrey Harrison has a woeful record has a heavy weight. His one reasonably impressive performance came last time against Williams, in a fihgt Williams took at short notice. Sprott is no world beater, but if Harrison boxes as he has done previously there is a good chance Sprott can nick this on points.

Starting Price of Grand National Fav. to be 5-1 or less.

In the past 20 years there have been one void National and 4 National favourites 5-1 or less. It is therefore suprising to see William Hill offering 12-1 on a 5-1 fav (or shorter price). With the recent policy from the handicapper of 'compressed' wieights, you could argue that a short priced favourite is less likely. However, jt. favs 5-1 favs last year of Hegehunter/ClanRoyal shows that this may not make a signficant difference.

For this reason, I hoping for a big plunge on any horse... I'm having 4pts at 12-1 on a 5-1 or shorter price Grand National fav.

Murray to win a Masters event in 2007- 9-2 - 2pts.

Murray is making great progress in his tennis career and he has a realistic chance of winning one of the 7 masters events this year. Blue Square have this eventuality at 9-2 - my maths makes it an approximate 2-1 chance (assuming it you think he will play all events and will be an approx 16-1 chance for each).

I'd have had 8pts - howveer, Bluesq have limited me to 2pts.

England to win Cricket World Cup - 16-1 - 1.25 pts win

England are a top priced 10-1, (12-1 to lay at Betfair) except for at Sportsinteraction.com.

These guys are out of line going 16-1... this was the price England was availible at most bookmakers before England's recent return to form. I don't expect this 16-1 to last long....

.... I wanted to place 5pts win, but I've been limited to 1.25 pts :(

0 or 1 Pricewise Winners at the Cheltenham Festival - 3-1 - 8pts.

I've completed some analysis based on the (4 day) 2005 and 2006 Cheltenham festivals, and the bigest price I can make this is 6-4. Ladbrokes who run this market are taking a major chance at 3-1. (This market doesn't include Antepost bets).

Of course, this analysis only stands up if Pricewise (Tom Segal) adopts a similar strategy as the previous years. Actually, you could argue that thie price should be closer to 'Even Money' this year as he there are more short price horses in the Major races (where he already has ante post bets). This limits him to the (tricky) handicaps.

One possible reason for Ladbrokes to adopt this stregay is that if Pricewise has 0-1 winners,. they wil be more than happy to pay out on this market as they will have made a signficnat amount by not paying out to the many punters who follow 'Pricewise'.

Quarterbacks first score value in Superbowl.

Last year I tipped a Quarterback at 40-1 to score fisrt touchown... only for the other Quarterbacks to do so at 40-1! I'm not going to make the same mistake this year, I've backed both Quarterbacks - Manning 40-1 (2pts) and Grossman 80-1 (1pt) respectively.

Manning is by far the more talented, but both have reasonable scoring records.

Mirco Begamasco for starring role in Six Nations.

Mirco Bergamasco was joint leading trscorer (with 3 tries) in last years 'Six Nations'. His career record is 14 tries from 37 appearances, a excellent strike rate.

Italy play the (unpredictable) France today, and are expected to score approximately 1 try. I have therfore placed the following bets at Ladbrokes on Mirco Bergamasco:

4 pts to Score at Anytime - 10/1 (as short as 5/2 at Corals!)
1pt First/1pt Last Tryscorer - 50/1
2pts E/W Leading Tryscorer in Six Nations Championship - 80/1

(N.B. Mirco is not to be confused with his team mate Marco (same surname).)

Liverpool v Everton - 1pst First/1pt Last Goal Scorer - Arteta - 20/1

Mikel Arteta looks overpriced at 20/1 for first/last goal scorer in this match. He has scored 6 gols in 21 games this season. I'm having 1pt on each....

Snooker - Malta Open - Tom Ford - 1pt E/W 200-1

Tom Ford has previously peformed well in this tournament, and is located in the easiest half of the draw. He has yet to reach his full potential, perhaps this could be the week!

Murray to win Aiustralian Open without losing a set.

I'm generally not one for fun bets (=losing bets in general) but I can't resist 1pt on Andrew Murray to win the Australin Open without dropping a set at 300-1 at William Hill. Go Murray!

Boxing - Morua v Witter- Murua to win on points - 16-1

Witter's last 4 fights have finished on points. Murua's last 10 fights have finished on points. Despite what Witter says (i.e. that he will provide an early stoppage), these facts point towards a points finish. In this case , Witter is the most likely to win (and is a even money chance to do so), but Murua is overpriced at 16-1 to pull of a surprise and take this match via the judges.

I'm having 2 pts on a Murua pts win at the generally availible 16-1.