Federer to win no Grand Slams in 2008 - 8pts - 11/2 - Skybet

Federer has been eliminated from the Australian Open and has the following 3 remaining Grand Slams in 2008 (listed in chronological order together with current win probabilities)

0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.5 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.6 US Open (Hard)

If they were independent events, this would give a probability of not winning any events of 0.75*0.5*.0.4=0.15 (i.e. an approx 11/2 chance). Howeve, these evenst are very much connected. With the continued threat of Nadal and the rise of Djokovic, Federer has mnore competition thatn ever before. Depending on his peformance in Grand Slam/Non Grand Slam events, the more likley probabilities are:

0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.4 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.4 US Open (Hard)

This gives a more accurate probability of 0.25 (i.e a 3/1 chance). I'm therefore having 8pts at Skybet at 11/2. N.B. They have now cut this price, but 9/2 is still availible at William Hill (which is still a fair price).

Mendes FGS - Portmouth v Plymouth - 25/1 (Corals) - 1pt

Portsmouth are a 1-2 chance for this match, hence are by far the most likely to score the fist goal. Several Portsmouth players are away on Africa Cup of Nations duty. This wll give Mendes more chence to take a more attacking role and the possibility of taking free kicks. Mendes has yet to score this season, but I think today could be the day that he gets onto the scoresheet (and hopefully scores the first goal!).

Result: Mendes did not score -1pt

Rocky Baptiste - Anytime Goalscorer - Liverpool v Havant - 33/1 - Paddy Power

I think Baptiste (Havant) is a more than fair price at 33-1 to score at anytime in the Liverpool v Havant match. I can see Havant getting a consolation goal towards the end of the match (the bookies make them 5-1 to score in the match). If Havant score, it is likely to come from Baptiste - he is Havant's main striker. I've had 1.33 points (max allowed) at 33-1.

Result : Rocky Baptiste did not score (but his striking partner did!) -1.33 pts

David Beckham to play in Premier League in 2008 - 14-1 - Bluesq -1.5 pts

David Beckham is on a long term contract with LA Galaxy. However, Newcastle may be able to persuade David Beckham to move to Newcastle (it would help his England prospects). Although it would require signficant compenstaion to LA Galaxy, the sales of (Addidas) Newcastle shirts would probably pay for the transfer and make Newcastle a global brand.

If it makes financial sense, it is likely to happen ... there are 'paper' rumours that this is at least being investigated as an option.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/2008/01/22/newcastle-chief-targets-david-beckham-89520-20294418/

Lescott Anytime Goalscorer (Everton v Chelsea) - 2pts - Paddy Power

Lescott has an excellent goals/games ratio (5 from 23 games in the Premiership) including 2 in the past 2 games. With John Terry missing, Chelsea look weaker defending set pieces. This is where Lescott is a particular threat (he nearly scored in the Chelsea v Everton 1st Leg). The 12-1 Paddypower are offering on him to score againt Chelsea in the Carling Cup semi final 2nd leg is a great price. (He is as short as 5-1 at Corals.) I'm having 2pts.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/teams/Everton.html

Result: Lescott did not score -2pts

FHM Sexist Women - 1.5 pts Gemma Atkinson - 14/1 - Bluesq.com

The previous top 3 of the FHM Sexiset women are as follows:

2007 - 1. Jessica Alba 2. Keeley Hazell 3. Eva Longoria
2006 - 1. Keira Knightley 2. Keeley Hazell 3. Scarlett Johansson
2005 - 1. Kelly Brook 2. Cheryl Tweedy 3. Angelina Jolie
2004 - 1. Britney Spears 2. Rachael Stevens 3. Beyonce Knowles
2003 - 1. Halle Berry 2. Holly Valance 3. Britney Spears
2002 - 1. Anna Kournikova 2. Rachel Stevens 3. Britney Spears

What is interesting is there are no repeat winners. In fact, only three women (Keeley Hazell, Rachael Stevens and Britney Spears) have appeared more than once in the top three. Winners tend to come from a combination of attractiveness and, just as importantly, publicity the previous year (FHM photoshoots and non FHM events e.g. popular films). Paddy Power has a full book. Those that are 10-1 and below are:

Jessica Alba 7 - 4
Keeley Hazell 3 - 1
Gemma Atkinson 6 - 1
Rihanna 8 - 1
Scarlett Johansson 10 - 1
Hayden Panettiere 10 - 1

I think Keeley Hazell should be the clear favourite - FHM and other publications give her much publicty. Keeley is fair value at 3-1. However, Bluesq quote 14-1 about Gemma Atkinson. I think her appearance in IACGMOOH may give her the publicity she needs - cetainly 6-1 is a much more accurate price. I'm having 1.5 pts (max allowed) at 14-1 at Bluesq.

Kicking King - Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2pts Win -33-1 - Betfred

Betfred have a special offer today where they are Non Runner No Bet on Cheltenham 08. I have taken advantage of this special offer to back Kicking King. He has been off with a long term injury as in shortly scheduled to return in the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on January 20. If this goes well, he will then take his chance in the either the Red Mills or the Hennessy.

The owner has said 'it doesn't work out we won't make a fool of him'. To me that means if either of these races don't work out (and that is quite likely from such a serious injury, hence the 33-1 general price), Kicking King won't be run in the Gold Cup. Hence you get your money back.

If he runs well in both races and makes the starting line up, I can't seem him starting at 33-1 - I would think a single digit starting price is more likely. With the field 'cutting up', there will possibly as few as approx. 10 runners. Kicking King would be among a handful who would have the quality to win.

Result : Kicking King did not run - stake returned

Rory Mcilroy to win the British Open In 2008 - 200/1 VCBet 1pt

Rory McIroy made an impressive appearance in the British Open in 2007, finishing top Amateur - he finished in overall 42nd place (was in 3rd place after Rnd 1.) If Rory McIlroy make substantial progress this year, I can see him starting at approx 33-1 for the British Open. 200-1 looks more than fair. He is currently trading at 100-1 on Betfair.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_mcilroy

Paris Hilton to be jailed for DUI in 2008 - 12-1- 1pt

Paris Hilton has already been jailed one for driving offecnces, I think there is a very real possibility she will get caught DUI in 2008. The 12-1 at vcbet.com is a more than fair price - I'm having one point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Hilton

Carlos Moya - 25-1 - 1pt E.W. Medibank International

Moya has made a typically fast start to the season, going out in the Semi-Final to Nadal in the last tournament (four match points not converted!). On a new surface at the Medibank, he has a reasonable chance of a strong showing. The new slower surface may not suit Blake and Hewitt, hence past strong past form can be discounted. This makes them false 2nd/2rd favourites.

I'm having 1pt E./W on Moya at the generally availible 25-1.

Result : Moya did not make the final -2pts

Luton v Liverpool - Luton to win (9/1) , Draw no bet - 2-pts

Luton have a strong home record (W8-D2-L1). Carling Cup perfomances have been imnpressive as well with wins against Charlton and Sunderland and an extra-time loss to Everton. It is though likely that Benitez may rest some of his stronger players (Torres, Gerrard). I think that the 9/2 on Luton (Draw, stakes returned) is a more than fair price.

Here is hoping for another FA Cup shock like those of yeasterday (e.g. Everton :) )

Result: Draw - Stake Refunded

Everrton to win FA Cup 4pts E.W 25-1 Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes are taking a stance by going top priced about all the shorter priced teams in the FA Cup.

I think the market has misjudged Everton's chances. They have a strong squad, an execellent manager in David Moyes and have demonstrated their form this season. (They are going well in the Premiership, UEFA Cup and Carling Cup). Moyes is likely to field a strong side in the FA Cup and Everton are surely overpriced at 25-1.

They have a relativelty straightforward home tie against Oldham. I appreciate that the top 4 have dominated this competition for the past 12 years, but I although I am keen on trends I just can't make Everton 4 to 5 times the price of the big 4. For a start, Man Utd have a tricky away tie against Aston Villa and are I far from convinced Liverpool have an easy tie away to Luton.

I've had 4 pts E/W on Everton at 25/1.

Result: Everton went out in the 3rd Round -4 pts

Boris Johnson - Mayor of London - 12pts - 7/4

The latest poll for Mayor Of London has the 2 leading candidates within 1% of each other. I believe that I am therefore effectively getting 7/4 on the toss of a coin. 12pts at Ladbrokes therefore seems a reasonable bet....

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23430437-details/Mayor+race%3A+Livingstone+and+Boris+too+close+to+call/article.do

Britney Spears to Marry in 2008 - 4pts - 8/1 - William Hill

It is distinctly possible Britney Spears will marry again in 2008. She has separated from her hisband Kevin Federline) and she is psychologiclaly prone to rash decisions Britney is reportedly 'involved' with her (male) PA Sam Lufti, with marriage a possibilty. (Other sourcs have Lufti as reportedly gay, which might be a bit of a barrier).

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22948098-5012974,00.html?from=mostpop

Britney has alreaduy been married twice (including one for 55h rs!, annulled), so a 2008 marriage is perfectly possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britney_spears

I've had 4 pts at 8/1 on this happening - I'd make it a 4/1 chance (although you can't use maths to work this one out!). It is as short as 3/1 at Ladbrokes (5/1 Skybet).

I'm still loooking at other novelty markets... no others curently strike me as great value, but still doing research.

Premiership/FA Cup Double - 12/1 - 6pts - William Hill

Prices are available for both the Premiership and FA Cup so it is relatively easy to work out what the chance of a double occuring, assuming they are unrelated events. I've done the maths and I make it an approx 6/1 chance (assuming unrelated events).

They are of course related, but if anything there is a positive correlation. A team that is strong is likley to win both events. Against this, they may also field weaker teams in the FA Cup as they are likely to also be playing in multiple competitions but I think that this is less of a factor.

Looking back in recent history, it has been achieved 3/10 years - this high rate is not suprising due to the increased dominance of the 'Big 4' clubs in both competitions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Double

Taking current odds and recent history into account, I would make thsi a 4-1/5-1 chance. I have therefore had 6pts (max. allowed) on the double occuring.

Premiership to be decided on Goal Difference - 1pt - 50/1 - William Hill

I've checked the history of the Premiership and since it's inception in 1992 no title has been decided on goal difference (15 runnings). However, three titles (94-95, 97-98, 98-99) have been decided by only 1pt, therefore I think that the 50/1 that William Hill are offering on the title to be decided on goal difference is a too big. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (this is an intuitive feel - I haven;t doen the stats anlysis to back this up- any volunteers?). No team is 'running away' with the title and conceivably any of the big four teams coudl still win. I've therfore had 1pt (max. allowed) at 50/1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Premier_League_seasons

British or Irish Trained Arc winner - 6/1 - 12 pts - William Hill

British and Irish Trianed horses have won 7 of the last 20 including 5 of the last 10Arcs. This increased domninance by British and Irish horses is primarily due to the increaed strength of the Coolmore and Godolphin breeding companies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prix_de_l'Arc_de_Triomphe

The French older horses in training in 2008 look nothing special. Therefore I think the price for a British/Irish winner should be approximatley even money - the 6/1 at William Hill looks a great bet. I've had 12 points, the max they will allow me.

(I have confirmed with William Hill that Saeed Bin Suroor's horses will be classfied as British trained.)

Congratulations to William Hill for actually being prepared to lay a proper bet (unlike many of your competitors - you know who you are!).

US Presidential Election - John McCain - 8pts win - 20/1

John McCain is a standout 20/1 at William Hil for the US presidential election. National polls indicate a upturn in fotunes for McCain, in most part due to the success of the 'surge' in Iraq. (McCain had aligned himself with the Iraq campaign).

Guiliani 21.5
Huckabee 17.3
McCanin 15.5
Romney 14.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

A poor performance by Ronmey agauinst Huckabee in the first Primary in Iowa would weaken Romney. This would leave the path clear for McCain in New Hampshire. The race for the Republican nomination would then become a three horse race between McCain, Huckabee and Guiliani. That woudl be difficult to call, hence my wish to back McCain at 20/1.

(Of course if Romney does well in Iowa, I coudl be sitting on a handful of losing betting slips!)

Hopefully, whoever wins the Republican noimination will run against Obama, meaning I will be in a win-win situtaion. Otherwise I may have to re-adjust my position by backing Clinton.

2007 - Review of performance

Above are the financial figures for 2006, 2007 and combined 2006-2007.

As you can see, the annual % profitability has increased from 50.9% to 57.1%, whilst the annual profit has decreased from £9,625 to £7,200. This was as a result of making fewer, more profitable bets. It is a delicate balance, but in 2009 I expect to bet using a similar strategy to 2008. In addition, I am also being limited in stakes for the majority of my bets - it is getting increasinly difficult to get my bets on.

I can generally get reasonable bets on at the major bookies (e.g Corals, Hills Ladbrokes), but 'bookies' (if that is wht you call them) such as Bet365 have now restricted me to £5 max. bets - I've now stopped looking at their markets.

My most successful sports are Motor Racing (all types) and Speciality bets (even better, both combined!). Politics has been the least profitable but, ironically, this is where I have probably made some of the best bets!

In terms of an Antepost position, the most important for me are

- A1 GP - I have backed Jonny Reid at 40/1 E/W (currnetly 7/2 2nd Fav.)
- Politics (Presidentail Election) - I have good positions on all the front runners other than Clinton (most bets placed thsi time last year). (Obama 11-1 (2nd Fav. 4-1), Guiliani 16-1 (3rd Fav. 6-1), Huckabee 33-1 and Gore 33-1). The Primaries should be interesting! I'm considering adding a bet on McCain at 20-1....

As ever, if you want the full .xls file, drop me an email at chris.trinder@gmail.com

Derby v Liverpool - 2pts Derby 8-1 (Draw No Bet)

Benitez (Liverpool Manager) can sometimes make strange selections/substitutions and today could be one of those days with a busy Christmas program ahead. Derby showed that they have the potential of springing a suprise - only a late equaliser ensured that they didn't take three points in their last match away to Newcastle.

Paddypower are offering a more than fair 8-1 on Derby to win with stakes returned if it is a draw. Bet365 offered 9-1 put they were only prepared to take £5 before cutting it to 8-1. Great work guys, £5 bets on Premiership games before cutting prices! Don;t give up the day job.... oops, it is your job.