Jenson Button - SBG GLobal - $200 @ 70-1

Some of you may remember this case... I placed a bet of $200 pre season with http://www.sbgglobal.com on Jenson Button at 70-1 for the 2009 F1 Championship. They have now upped their offer from even money ( :) ) to 12-1. I still believe I should be paid at 70-1.

After waiting 2 months to be paid, I've now commenced legal action. It turns out that SBG Global are owned by SBG Euro, a UK company. This should help...below is a copy of the latter I have sent today to SBG Euro (by post and email).

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I have not yet received the $14K USD that I am owed by SBG Global. I have now commenced legal action to ensure I am paid this money. Attached below are scanned copies of documents that have been sent to the registered address for SBG Euro Ltd (of which SBG Global are a wholly owned subsidiary).

You now have 21 days to pay the money owed to me. I suggest this is done by a payment to my VISA credit card. If you not have these details on file, please email me and I can provide these details. Please let me know when I should expect to receive payment.

If I do not receive payment, I file a winding-up petition against SBG Euro Ltd in the UK courts. This petition is a request for the court to make a "compulsory liquidation order". An accountant will then be appointed as a liquidator and sell off SBG Euro's assets to pay the money owed to me.

If you with to contact me, I must insist this done my email to this address rather than by phone.

2010 Specials - Part 2 - William Hill

The next bookie's 2010 prices I have reviewed is William Hill. I have managed to come up with 6 bets which I think are value.

1. Michael Schumacher to have 5+ winners in 2010 F1 Championship. - 7-1 - 20pts Win

Schumacher is now a confirmed 'runner' in the 2010 F1 Season for Merecdes (ex Brawn GP). Ross Brawn is a master race tactician and designer. Brawn GP have been working on the 2010 car since mid season 2009 and I believe are likely to be competitive again. (I don't believe Schumacher would have taken this drive if this wasn't the case). Schmacher has stayed fit so I don't think age is an issue - it is more relevent that he is one of the gretest drivers of all time. He has always outerformed his team mates so I am confident he with do the same wih Rosberg.

Schumacher is currently a 5-1 chance for the 2010 F1 Championship. I think of better value is the 7-1 for 5+ wins. There are 19 races in 2010 so he will need to win > approx. 25% of the races. With rules changes for 2010 (no refulleing, narrower tyes) it is possible a single team will make a fast start (like with Brawn in 2009).

If you look at previous seasons, you can see that often more than one driver scores approx > 25% in a season (3 out of the past 5 years). The reverse is not true ie. no driver has won the chmampionship without scoring > 25% wins.

Past Season Reviews (with drivers who makes approx > 25% criteria in bold):
Top 3 Drivers in each Season

No. of Races Driver/Number of Race Wins/% Wins

2009 17 - Button 6, Vettel 4, Barricello 2
2008 18 - Hamilton 5, Massa 6, Raikkonen 3
2007 17 - Raikkonen 6, Hamilton 4, Alonso 4
2006 18 - Alonso 7, Schumacher 7, Massa 2
2005 19 - Alonso 6, Raikkonen 7, Schmuacher 1

This means either the 5-1 on Schmuchaer for the championship is too short or the 7-1 on 5+ wins is too long (I'm betting on the latter as it is a less popular market). Labrokes do a similar market and make it and approx 4-1 chance - I'd make it an approx 3-1 chance.

2. Any England Bowler to take a Test Match Hatrick - 8-1 - 4pts Win

Suprisingly, England bowlers have taken hatricks relatively often in Test matches (past 20 years reviewed) - 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 i.e approx 1 in every 5 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Test_cricket_hat-tricks

There is a reasonable test program this year (inclusing 2 x test series against Bangladesh) so there is no reason to think this year will have any different chance. BlueSq are going 9/2, a much more accurate price.

3. A European trained winner of the Melbourne Cup 8-1 - 4 pts

On bare reading of stats., 8-1 would seem the approximately correct price as Europe have had two winners in the past 20 years (1992/2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Melbourne_Cup_winners

However, we have been very close on several other occasions recently. I think the BlueSQ price of 3/1 is slighly too short (but a more accurate price than 8-1 - I'd make it an approx. 9/2 chance).

4. Capello to receive a Knighthood in 2010 - 100/1 - 4pts win

England are an approx 6-1 for the World Cup. Whilst I think this is too short, I would still make them no more than a 10-1 chance. If England win the World Cup, I think there is good chance (even money?) that Capello will be awarded an (honourary) Knighthood at end 2010. Ramsey receive a knighthood for 1966, and in these 'celeb' times, there is no reason to think that Capello won't also recieve one. I'd make this an approx 20-1 chance.

5. Pete Doherty to receive a custodial sentence in 2010 - 5-1 - 4pts win

Doherty is treading a very fine line with continual drug (re)offences. I cannot see the judicary allowing him many more chances. He also has potential crimianl proceedings for a hit and run incident (primarily invovling his manager).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Doherty

6. First Celeberity Couple to Divorce in 2010 - Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes- 50-1 - 2pts Win

Tiger & Erin Woods are far too short at 1-3 to be the first couple to divorce, meaning there has to be value at on the other runners. I can't suggest I am an expert in this area, but I think (divorcee) Cruise may have a 'rocky' year. I'm going to have to get a subscription to Heat.

Full list of runners (and odds) below

Tiger and Erin Woods 1/3
Kerry Katona and Mark Croft 4/1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie 7/1
Ashley and Cheryl Cole 10/1
Charlotte Church and Gavin Henson 16/1
Roger and Mirka Federer 25/1
Wayne and Coleen Rooney 33/1
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 50/1
David and Victoria Beckham 50/1

2010 Specials - Part 1 - Skybet

At Christmas, my (betting) thoughts turn to yearly specials. These can sometimes be poor value, but amongst the dross are a few gems. The first review I've made is of Skybets's 2010 Specials markets. If anyone can spot and value bets I've missed, please post as a comment or, if you would prefer, send to chris.trinder@gmail.com.

1. Golf - An Amateur to win on the Europen Tour - 7-1

Amateurs have have had a suprisingly good record on the European tour recently. There have been three wins (two in 2009, one in 2007) so 7-1 is a great price. I think it should be much shorter (2-1?). I've had 6 pts (max. allowed). This could make for some interesting viewing of final rounds....

2. Tennis - Murray to win 7 (or more) ATP titles - 7-1

Murray won 5 ATP titles in 2007 and 6 ATP titles in 2008. Nadal is less of a threat now (but Del Potro is more of a threat). I woudl think Murray will probably win approx 6/7 singles titles so 7-1 on 7+ titles is a graet bet... I'd make it an approx 6-4 chance at most. I've had 8pts (max. allowed). It should keep me interested in watching the Men's ATP Tennis for the year!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Murray

3. Cricket - Top Test Score to be greater than 735 - 16-1

The 3 highest test scores last year were:

765
760
749

(all of which would have made this bet payout). Unless I am missing something, the 16-1 is excellent value - I think this should be an odds on shot. I've had 1.5pts (max allowed).

http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=1;id=2009;type=year

4. Snooker - World Championship to have a Century scored in the final frame - 9-1

This has occured in the following years: 2009, 2003, 1998, 1995. I'd therefore think it is probably an approx 4-1 chance. I've had 3 pts at 9-1 (max. allowed).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_Snooker_Championships

I will be doing reviews over the next 2-3 days of each of the other bookies markets.

P.S. 2 Bets I missed were 'Six 6s in a Internatial Twenty20 Over' highlighted in a comment below at 50/1) - now into 3/1 (priced changed while I was doing my analysis) :( and 'Top Test Indiviudal Score to be > 313'... this was priced at 6/1, now into 5/2. The new prices are just fair.

Kempton Christmas Hurdle - Straw Bear - 80/1 - Stan James - 2pts E/W

Straw Bear has been mainly chasing recently (with little success). He wisely has returned to hurdling and takes on the 2009 Christmas Hurdle, a race he won in 2007. His run in this race 2008 was too bad to be true (although I haven't been able to find an explanation). After his poor hurdling re-appearance this year he scoped badly, so that can be disregarded (as can his chasing runs). If he returns to his 2007 form, I think he has a live chance. I've had 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2) at 80/1 at Stan James.

Arsenal v Hull - Zayatte - 16/1 - Anytime Goalscorer - Paddy Power

Arsenal have showed defensive vulnerabilities this season and think Hull will probably get a goal today (possibly from a set piece). Hull Defender Kamil Zayatte has scored twice this season and I can see him getting this goal... I'd make him an approx 10-1 chance to do so. I've had 2pts at 16-1.

Will Tiger Wood's personal problems affect his Golf preformance?

When sportsmen have problems in their personal life, it often reduces their sporting performace. Tiger Wood's might now move resolved his perosnal issues (and enhance his performance)... however I think it is more likely he will have further "issues" next year, made worse by the media attention.

I've therefore had the follwoing bets at Skybet:

To Break Sneads PGA Tour Wins Record (2013 or later) - 9/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)

Woods currenntly has 71 PGA titles - he will need to reach 83 to beat Sam Snead's record (i.e. another 12 titles). He is currently accumulating titles as follows:

2009 - 6
2008 - 4
2007 - 7
2006 - 8
2005 - 6

ie. approx 6 a year. It is easy to see that this average could drop to 4 a year over the next 3 years - 9/1 for this to happen is a more than reasonable. (I appreciate he was injured for the 2nd half of 2008 - this still doesn't substatially change the average PGA titles per year).

Tiger's Next Major Win (2012 or Later) - 10/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)
Tigers Next Major Win (No More Major Wins) - 50/1 (this pays out if he retires before winning anothe rmajor) - 0.5 pts (tried to have 2pts)

Tiger Woods did not win a Major in 2009 (when his was fully fit) and only won a single Major each year from 2007-2009. I can easily seee him failing to win a major in the next 2 years.

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With the continual restriction in my stakes (now from all major bopokmakers - I've just received another "account closed" letter), I'm probably going to either start a "Veitch" like approach or perhaps focus on different areas of investment.

I guess I should take it has a complement that I can't get my bets on!

Betfair Chase - Halcon Generladis - 20/1 - 2pts Win

Halcon Generladis goes well fresh, will be favoured by the heavy ground and likes the course (Haydock). I think he has a better than 20/1 chance of winning this race (14/1?). I've had 2pts win at Betfair.

IACGMOOH - Katie Price - 10/1 - 4pts

5th in Series 3, Katie Price aka 'Jordan' has a serious chance of winning this event. There have rarely been such a high profile contestant. Critically, she will divide the audience in a love/hate way. As viewers are voting for participants (rather than to 'eveict'), this plays into her hands. I think she is reasonable value at 10/1 - a final three appearance is likely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_a_Celebrity%E2%80%A6Get_Me_out_of_Here!_%28UK_TV_series%29

Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 - Denny Hamlin - 2pts Win - 8/1

I think Jimmie Johnson is a poorly priced favourite at 4/1 for this race. With 2 races to go in the Championship, he'll take no risks (especially after losing points in the last race). Hamlin has been in execllent form in recent races and has a good record at this track. He qualified in 5th, showing that his car has a decent setup. I've backed him at 8/1 (2pts Win)... 9/1 is availible at Paddy Power (where my bets are limited).

SCD - Phil Tuffnell - 250/1 - 2pts Win

Jade Johnson suffered a serious injury yesterday forcing her to pullout from yesterday's SCD tournament. Under the rules of SCD, she is allowed to miss a single event. However, I think it is unlikely she will be back next weekend which leaves the BBC with 2 options:

1. Make the final consist of 2 couples (rather than 3)
2. Make next week's tournament a 'zero exit ' round
3. Allow the loser this week (Phil Tuffnell) to be return as a 'lucky loser'

I think 1. is the most likley option, but option 3 is a definate possibility (5/1?). If this happens, the the 250/1 is going to look pretty big - I'd then make him a 16/1 chance.

SPOTY 2009 - Market review and new bet......

Those of you who follow my blog know I take a keen interest in betting for SPOTY. At present my portfolio has the following bets:

8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1 (now unquoted) - very unlikely
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 100/1)

I have now added what will probably be my final bet on this event. I've has 2pts E/W on Chrissie Wellington at 200/1. Your first response to this would probably be 'Chrissie Who?'. She is the three times Tri-athelete World Champion, winning the event again this year. I think there is a very real possibility that the Sports Editors who compile the the 'Top 10' list from which the public vote from will include her. Then it is up to the BBC how they present her achievements - she will then certainly have the publicity she needs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

What makes me especially keen on this bet is that Wellington has just won the prestigious 'Sunday Times Sportwoman of the Year', beating Ennis into 2nd place! (this competition has a similar voting methodology - list of 10, followed by public voting). Winners of this event have a good record in SPOTY. The past record is as follows:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/more_sport/article2902012.ece

2008 Nicole Cooke (unplaced)
2007 Victoria Pendleton (unplaced)
2006 (Doesn't seem to have been an award?)
2005 Zara Philips (1st SPOTY 2006)
2004 Kelly Holmes (1st SPOTY 2004)
2003 Pippa Funnell (unplaced)
2002 Paula Radcliffe (1st SPOTY 2002)
2001 Ellen MacArthur (2nd SPOTY 2001)
2000 Denise Lewis (2nd SPOTY 2000)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award

She is quoted at 100/1 at Coral at present - no other bookies quote her. I'd make her a 25/1 chance (at most).

England v Brazil - FGS/LGS (1pt Each) - Gareth Barry - 25/1

Brazil hasve an excellent defensive record, but I still think England may well score a goal today. With Gerrard and Lampard out, Barry may play a more forward role (and will be likley to take penalties). The generally availible 25-1 on FGS/LGS is a reasonable price - I'd make him an approximtely 12/1-14/1 chance (the price his is at Betfred).

Paddy Power Gold Cup - Tarotino - 2pts Win - 12/1

Paddy Power sponsor the Gold Cup at Cheletenham today and have a great offer. They are refunding losing stakes if the race is won by a Nicholls trained horse. Nicholls trains 3 fancied horses:

Chapoturgeon (7-1)
Poquelin (14-1)
Tatenen (11-1)

It therefore makes sense to pick a non-Nicholls horse. There are many of these with a chance, however I've gone for Tarotino (12-1). He has been impressive in his recent races and although he has been rasied 15lb since his last race at Bangor, he may stil have the potential to improve past this weight raise. The ground is a concern for the trainer, but I think the soft ground should not inconvenience (unlike many others) - her has previosuly win on the soft.

European Chmpionship - Darts - James Wade 5pts E/W

James Wade is in the semi finals whre he plays Steve Beaton (Wade 1-3, Beaton 2-1). Paddy Power are very generously offering him with E/W betting (1/3) 1,2 at 9/2 for ouright betting. If you think the prices are correct (which I do), the E/W shape/nature of the market makes this a great bet. I've had a (max allowed) 5 pts E/W

Update: Perhaps it would have made more sense to back BOTH semi-finalists in the opposite half from Phil Taylor.

2nd Update: All bets (win/place) voided by Paddy Power.

Strictly Come Dancing - Ricky Groves to win Week 6 - 66/1 - 1pt

I am starting to think that Ricky Groves has a chance of winning SCD (ouright). He is dancing the American Smooth this week. The dances are as follows:

Amercian Smooth - Ali, Chris, Nat, RickyG, RickyW, Zoe
Samba - Craig, Jade, Jo, Laila, Tuffers

Those who will be dancing the Amercian Smooth will have a significant advantage as this is typically highly scored. Ricky W and Ali with provide stiff competition but if Ricky G ditches the 'cheeky chappy' routine, I think the judges will reward him well. Apparently rehearsels are going well for Ricky Groves - I can see a score in the thirties. The downside is that Ricky G is more suited by Latin dances, but you can't have everything in your favour...

I tried to have 2pts, but have had to get a total of 1pts across several bookies at 66/1.

The first of many I fear.....

to "chris.trinder@googlemail.com"
date Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 5:23 PM
subject Account Closure
mailed-by galacoral.com

Dear Mr Trinder

I am writing to advise you that your account with Coral.co.uk has been closed. As of now, no further bets can be accepted and and any recorded in error will be decarled void, win or lose. This decision has been taken purely for commercial reasons.

In the event of you placing a bet indirectly with Coral.co.uk in the future, we will reserve the right to void your bet.

Any funds currently in your balance have now been sent back to your registered card. Any outstanding Ante Post bets will be settled upon their maturity and any subsequent funds won will be sent back to your registered card.

Kind Regards

Terry

Coral Customer Care Supervisor

Brazil GP F1 - Rosberg 8pts win (25-1), 1pt Place

There is a raesonable likelihood of rain this afternoon at the Brazil GP. If the race is severely affected by rain, Rosberg has an excellent chance to win the race. He showed in early practice yesterday that his car is optimized for wet conditions. I've had 8 pts win at a (generous) 25/1. I've also had a small place bet (1pt) to cover my win stake, but I think he his most likely to either win or come nowhere. I'd make him a 8/1 chance to win. Due to restrictions, I've had to palce this bet across several bookmakers.

Portugal Masters - Lima - 1pt E/W 150/1

Lima has played consistently well on the Challenge Tour thsi year (finished second on the tour)and could spring a surprise in the Portugal Masters. He has an excellent record in Portugal in recent seasons which would mean I would make him an approx 66/1 chance of winning this event.

I tried to have 2pts E/W but was restricted to 1 pt E/W.

Argentina v Peru - Peru to win - 33/1 - 2pts

As per my post below, although I am fairly convinced Argentina will win tonight, there come a point when a price can simply to big. This is the case with Peru tonight - the 33/1 is too big - I'd make it a 16/1 chance (at most). It is just possible that Maradona will contrive to lose this game via a combination of poor tactics, (unlucky) finishing and weak defending.

Argentina v Peru - FGS (50-1) /AGS (16-1) - Varga - Extrabet

Argentina legend Maradona has proved to be an inept maanger - is is ludicrous that Argentina will (probably) only just qualify for the 2010 World Cup. Tonight they play Peru and although they should win the game, there is a good chance they will conceed a goal to Peru. This may well come from talented attacking midfileder Varga.

He is way overpriced at Bet365 and Extrabet for first golascsorer (50-1) / anytime goalscorer (14-1). I missed the 80-1/20-1 - most other bookies go much shorter. I've had 2pt on each.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Manuel_Vargas