With the malign influence of Jade Goody disappeared, Danielle and Jo a chance of re-establishing their credibility. Neither received many nominations this week, and, as has already been seen, these markets has history of rapidly changing favourites/outsiders.
I;ve had my money on Betfair, so I have a chance laying off if either goes into single figures.
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Australian Tennis Mens Open Preview
Federer is a prohibitively short priced favourite at best priced 2-5. His record in this Grand Slam event is the weakest of the Grand Slams, excepting the French Open. He is of course the most likely winner, however there is much better E/W value in the other half of the draw.
Nadal was out of form in the 2nd half of 2006, so is no value at 8-1. In the forth quarter his much difficult openents will be Blake (20-1), Hewitt (50-1) and Murray (40-1). Blake has a tough first round match against Moya - if he gets through this he has a great chance of reaching the final. Therefore at this stage he is probably best avoided. I still have doubts regarding Murray's fitness, therefore with a relatively hard draw, he may lose in the last 16 (Nadal) or last 8 (Blake) if either match goes to 5 sets. Hewitt is not the force of old, although he will be motiuvated for his 'home' event.
The 2 top 8 seeds in the 3rd quarter are Nalbandian and Davydenko. However, both have injury doubts so there is some great value to be found. My preference is to have 1pt E/W on both Soderling (100-1) and Malisse (125-1). This event has a recent history of haveing a least one big priced finalist.
Soderling has been steadliy improving. He has the game to suit hard court tennis and good recent hard court form, losing in the Doha semi final in 3 sets (on a tie break) to eventual winner Ljubicic. The onw worry is whether he has the right psychological make up - he seems to lose too many games when he is playing the better tennis (e.g against Ljubicic in Doha).
Malisse reached 2 hard court semi finals last year and also has good recent form, winning in Chennai beating Nadal in the semi-final.
Nadal was out of form in the 2nd half of 2006, so is no value at 8-1. In the forth quarter his much difficult openents will be Blake (20-1), Hewitt (50-1) and Murray (40-1). Blake has a tough first round match against Moya - if he gets through this he has a great chance of reaching the final. Therefore at this stage he is probably best avoided. I still have doubts regarding Murray's fitness, therefore with a relatively hard draw, he may lose in the last 16 (Nadal) or last 8 (Blake) if either match goes to 5 sets. Hewitt is not the force of old, although he will be motiuvated for his 'home' event.
The 2 top 8 seeds in the 3rd quarter are Nalbandian and Davydenko. However, both have injury doubts so there is some great value to be found. My preference is to have 1pt E/W on both Soderling (100-1) and Malisse (125-1). This event has a recent history of haveing a least one big priced finalist.
Soderling has been steadliy improving. He has the game to suit hard court tennis and good recent hard court form, losing in the Doha semi final in 3 sets (on a tie break) to eventual winner Ljubicic. The onw worry is whether he has the right psychological make up - he seems to lose too many games when he is playing the better tennis (e.g against Ljubicic in Doha).
Malisse reached 2 hard court semi finals last year and also has good recent form, winning in Chennai beating Nadal in the semi-final.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Chelteham Gold Cup - Halcon Genelardis - 33/1 2pts E/W
If the ground at Cheltenham comes of soft (or heavy), I believe that Halcon Genelardis will start a much shorter price than 33/1. With the current climate conditions and the casualties caused by faster ground last year, these softer conditions are a real possibility.
If it is soft ground, not only will it suit Halcon Generaldis there are several horse it will be a problem for. Kauto Star (7/4) may be one of these, staying up the Cheltenham hill is always a true test of stamina. However, the reason I'm not backing Kauto Star is because of his jumping... I don't think he will make it around, probably falling at the 3rd last - anyone want to give me a price on this?
Halcon Genelardis produced a great performance win the Welsh National (for which he had be layed out for by Alan King, a trainer for who I have a high respect). Through a line with Juveigneur, Halcon Genelardis has a similar form to Hennessy winner Stae of Play, who is half the price (although State of Play is more verslatile in terms of different types of ground he can run on). It is these type of progressive horses that I also focus on for the Gold Cup.
Halcon Generladis is scheduled for a re-appearance in the Wetherby and Christopher (formerly the Pillar) later this month at Cheltenham where he will face Ou Vic, another horse I think has a good chance. By running Our Vic less often often they seem to have found the key to this horse, alkthough I don't fully trust him yet. If Haclon Genelardis beats Our Vic on good-soft ground in thsi race (which I think is a real possibility), he could be into approx 10/1.
Update: The 33/1 has now disappeared, but there is still plenty of 25/1 availible.
If it is soft ground, not only will it suit Halcon Generaldis there are several horse it will be a problem for. Kauto Star (7/4) may be one of these, staying up the Cheltenham hill is always a true test of stamina. However, the reason I'm not backing Kauto Star is because of his jumping... I don't think he will make it around, probably falling at the 3rd last - anyone want to give me a price on this?
Halcon Genelardis produced a great performance win the Welsh National (for which he had be layed out for by Alan King, a trainer for who I have a high respect). Through a line with Juveigneur, Halcon Genelardis has a similar form to Hennessy winner Stae of Play, who is half the price (although State of Play is more verslatile in terms of different types of ground he can run on). It is these type of progressive horses that I also focus on for the Gold Cup.
Halcon Generladis is scheduled for a re-appearance in the Wetherby and Christopher (formerly the Pillar) later this month at Cheltenham where he will face Ou Vic, another horse I think has a good chance. By running Our Vic less often often they seem to have found the key to this horse, alkthough I don't fully trust him yet. If Haclon Genelardis beats Our Vic on good-soft ground in thsi race (which I think is a real possibility), he could be into approx 10/1.
Update: The 33/1 has now disappeared, but there is still plenty of 25/1 availible.
Next Premiership Manager to Leave in 2007 - Mourinho - 33/1 (Corals)
I've had a 'cratfy' 1pt on Mourinho to be the next Premiership Manage to leave in 2007. Things appear to be going from bad to worse in his relationship with Chelsea. It is likely that he will leave in the summer (I'd make it an odds on chance now), but there is a possibility he will leave earlier than that e.g to Real Madrid if Capello leaves mid season and Mourinho is offered the Real Madrid position.
As regards other Premiership managers leaving , there are no other obvious candidates.... if one qwas to leav, it would have probably of happended at the start of the mid season transfer window.
N.B. If no manager levaes this season, this bet is settled as a loser.
Update: This market has now been pulled by Corals.... will probably re-appear at the end of the day after todays games have been played.
As regards other Premiership managers leaving , there are no other obvious candidates.... if one qwas to leav, it would have probably of happended at the start of the mid season transfer window.
N.B. If no manager levaes this season, this bet is settled as a loser.
Update: This market has now been pulled by Corals.... will probably re-appear at the end of the day after todays games have been played.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
2.40 Sandown - Tolwoth Hurdle - 1pts WIn Load Baskerville 200/1 (Betfair)
Small fields on heavy ground can throw up suprise results.
Lord Baskervill goes well fresh, is fine on the (heavy) ground and was progressive last year. 200/1 is a bit of an insult. He will need to improve, but is not any lbs off the market leaders on ratings. The main worry is the trainer is currently out of form.
Lord Baskervill goes well fresh, is fine on the (heavy) ground and was progressive last year. 200/1 is a bit of an insult. He will need to improve, but is not any lbs off the market leaders on ratings. The main worry is the trainer is currently out of form.
Mourinho NOT to be Chelsea Manager at End 2007 - 6/1 (Corals)
Mourinho's contract expires this summer. There are a number of reasons for thinking that he will then leave:
- relationship with Abramovich & Kenyon. As a result of the 'Gallas' affair (and over other matters), neither realtionbhsip is strong.
- Mourinho is strong willed and, if things start turning againist him, is unlikely to back down against Abramovich/Kenyon
- Mourinho walked out from his first appointment
- Chelsea are doing well this year at present (by their high standards).
I've had 3pts at 6/1....
- relationship with Abramovich & Kenyon. As a result of the 'Gallas' affair (and over other matters), neither realtionbhsip is strong.
- Mourinho is strong willed and, if things start turning againist him, is unlikely to back down against Abramovich/Kenyon
- Mourinho walked out from his first appointment
- Chelsea are doing well this year at present (by their high standards).
I've had 3pts at 6/1....
Friday, December 29, 2006
Aus v Eng 5th Test - Man of the Match - Glen McGrath (7/1) 4pts (cover Shane Warne (5/1) 1pt)
The Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) is the location for the 5th test in the Ashes. Given England's diamla record, I expect that an Australian player (most likely a bowler) will win MoM.
This is Glen McGrath and Shane Warne's last test and both have a reasonable record at the ground (which is 'spinner friendly'). I expect one of these 2 individuals to win the MoM. As SCG is Glen McGrath's home venue (and Shane Warne won the last MoM on his home ground), preference is for Glen McGrath, with a cover on Shane Warne.
My staking plan is as follows
4pts Glen McGrath - 7/1
1pt Shane Warne - 5/1
These prices are availible at Ladbrokes. Just missed the 10/1 at Blue Squeare, the other bookmaker who has opened on this market.... other bookies are running scared.
This is Glen McGrath and Shane Warne's last test and both have a reasonable record at the ground (which is 'spinner friendly'). I expect one of these 2 individuals to win the MoM. As SCG is Glen McGrath's home venue (and Shane Warne won the last MoM on his home ground), preference is for Glen McGrath, with a cover on Shane Warne.
My staking plan is as follows
4pts Glen McGrath - 7/1
1pt Shane Warne - 5/1
These prices are availible at Ladbrokes. Just missed the 10/1 at Blue Squeare, the other bookmaker who has opened on this market.... other bookies are running scared.
In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister?
William Hill have priced up 'In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister? '. I believe this market has been seriously mis-priced.
I think the most lilkely scenario is for Blair to stepdown from leadership of the Labour Party in May 2007, after the local elections and after 10 years in charge. He could at this point also step down as Prime Minister. The most likely scenario for this (simultaneous) resignation to happen is if their was a 'coronation' (of Brown).
However, a left wing MP has already indicated he will stand against Brown, and there is a possibility Reid will as well, triggering a leadership contest. Whilst a leadership contest takes place, I believe Blair will retain his position as Prime Minister. With an expected 8 weeks for the leadership contest, my thinking is that Blair will cease his duties as Prime Minister in July 07. This is confirmed by the (well connected) political correspondent of 'The Sun'.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006410396,00.html
A strict reading of the Labour Leadership rules would be that a resignation would be followed by an appointment at the Labour party conference in Sept. 07.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm
The prices they have are as follows (Month, Price) : May 1.57 April 4.00 March 8.00 June 15.00 February 17.00 July 26.00 September 34.00 October 34.00 January 34.00 August 51.00 Any Other 51.00
Therefore my staking plan is as follows:
6 pts - July - 25/1
1 pt - August - 50/1
1 pt - September -33/1
N.B (i) This market is very different from the Betfair market which is 'When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?'
N.B (ii) The book closes at 5:30 p.m. today. (Although it may be re-opened)
I think the most lilkely scenario is for Blair to stepdown from leadership of the Labour Party in May 2007, after the local elections and after 10 years in charge. He could at this point also step down as Prime Minister. The most likely scenario for this (simultaneous) resignation to happen is if their was a 'coronation' (of Brown).
However, a left wing MP has already indicated he will stand against Brown, and there is a possibility Reid will as well, triggering a leadership contest. Whilst a leadership contest takes place, I believe Blair will retain his position as Prime Minister. With an expected 8 weeks for the leadership contest, my thinking is that Blair will cease his duties as Prime Minister in July 07. This is confirmed by the (well connected) political correspondent of 'The Sun'.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006410396,00.html
A strict reading of the Labour Leadership rules would be that a resignation would be followed by an appointment at the Labour party conference in Sept. 07.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm
The prices they have are as follows (Month, Price) : May 1.57 April 4.00 March 8.00 June 15.00 February 17.00 July 26.00 September 34.00 October 34.00 January 34.00 August 51.00 Any Other 51.00
Therefore my staking plan is as follows:
6 pts - July - 25/1
1 pt - August - 50/1
1 pt - September -33/1
N.B (i) This market is very different from the Betfair market which is 'When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?'
N.B (ii) The book closes at 5:30 p.m. today. (Although it may be re-opened)
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Leonardo di Caprio (The Departed) - Golden Globe (20/1), Oscars (11/1)
The Golden Globe best actor nominations have been announced and they are as follows:
Forest Whitaker ( The Last King of Scotland )
Peter O`Toole ( Venus )
Will Smith ( The Pursuit of Happyness )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( The Departed )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( Blood Diamond )
Although being nominated for two films may be seen as a handicap, I stil think Leonardo Di Caprio is in with a chance against the (long odds on) favourite Forest Whittaker. Forest Whittaker has the critics backing at present, but the (low number) of Golden Globes judges have a record of choosing major stars for their award.
I'm having 1pt @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler).
If he wins this award, he will be much shorter for the forthcoming Oscars (for which the Golden Globes are a strong predictor), so consequently I'm also backing him at 12/1 for the Best Actor Oscar (Bet365/Sportsinteraction .... do they have the same odds compilers?)
Forest Whitaker ( The Last King of Scotland )
Peter O`Toole ( Venus )
Will Smith ( The Pursuit of Happyness )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( The Departed )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( Blood Diamond )
Although being nominated for two films may be seen as a handicap, I stil think Leonardo Di Caprio is in with a chance against the (long odds on) favourite Forest Whittaker. Forest Whittaker has the critics backing at present, but the (low number) of Golden Globes judges have a record of choosing major stars for their award.
I'm having 1pt @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler).
If he wins this award, he will be much shorter for the forthcoming Oscars (for which the Golden Globes are a strong predictor), so consequently I'm also backing him at 12/1 for the Best Actor Oscar (Bet365/Sportsinteraction .... do they have the same odds compilers?)
Order of Merit - 2pts E/W - Voy Por Ustedes - 20/1 - Stan James
Kauto Star is justifiably a short priced favourite for the OoM. However, given his short price (4/9), there is E/W value to be had elsewhere. My preference is for Voy Por Ustedes, the favourite for the Quenn Mother.
Enroute to the Queen Mother, he is likely to take in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury which should be relatively straightforward (unless Kauto Star switches to this race from the Aon Chase).
To win the OoM, Voy Por Ustedes will need Kauto Star to not complete for the rest of the year (not an impossibility given Kauto Star's jumping). However, to get placed in the OoM Voy Por Ustedes will just need to put in some solid performances. The 2m divison looks realtively week this year - his competitors in the OoM are mainly hurdelers (which seems a much more competitive divison).
Enroute to the Queen Mother, he is likely to take in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury which should be relatively straightforward (unless Kauto Star switches to this race from the Aon Chase).
To win the OoM, Voy Por Ustedes will need Kauto Star to not complete for the rest of the year (not an impossibility given Kauto Star's jumping). However, to get placed in the OoM Voy Por Ustedes will just need to put in some solid performances. The 2m divison looks realtively week this year - his competitors in the OoM are mainly hurdelers (which seems a much more competitive divison).
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
King George VI Preview
Kauto Star is too short at 4/7 for this event. His jumping is not perfect, and will be fully tested around Kempton. There is also a doubt as to the nature of his Haydock and Sandsown performences - are they really the special performances that most believe?
Racing Demon also has jumping issues. Monet's Garden is much the best bet of the favoured horse, however he will need to improve a little to take this race and his reluctantly passed oer at 4-1.
Instead my two bets are as follows:
Monkehostin - 4pts win, 20-1 (Betfair). I think he has a reasonable chance of reversing form with Racing Demon on their last running - last year Monkerhostin reserved his best for Kempton (i the King George) when he was narrowly beaten by Kicking King.
Ollie Magern, - 1pt win, 40-1 (Betfair) - a front running horse (a charactersitic that suits Kempton), need to return to form to take a part, but it wouldn't be the greatest suprise ever if he took a major part in this race.
Racing Demon also has jumping issues. Monet's Garden is much the best bet of the favoured horse, however he will need to improve a little to take this race and his reluctantly passed oer at 4-1.
Instead my two bets are as follows:
Monkehostin - 4pts win, 20-1 (Betfair). I think he has a reasonable chance of reversing form with Racing Demon on their last running - last year Monkerhostin reserved his best for Kempton (i the King George) when he was narrowly beaten by Kicking King.
Ollie Magern, - 1pt win, 40-1 (Betfair) - a front running horse (a charactersitic that suits Kempton), need to return to form to take a part, but it wouldn't be the greatest suprise ever if he took a major part in this race.
Sunday, December 24, 2006
2006 Review - 49.79 % Profit
The headline figure of 49.79 % tells the story of my first year. I was aiming for 40%, so I am more than happy with this figure. (This includes all bets I have placed - if you only select all post placed on this blog before the event, this figure drops to 37.69 %). The reason for the discrepancy is that I sometimes see 'last minute' bets e.g Rail Link on the PMU in the Arc.
Whichever figure we use, I am happy with my performance. I'd be interested if anyone knows of any blog that can beat either these figures (or get close to them!) ... I want to read it! I would any wish those in the print/new media listed % profits (or losses) it would make it so much easier to know who to read! (i.e. whose judgement to trust)
Previously, I've been asked to post my results - I've an .xls with these, filtered by 'settled bets' and ordered by sport. Comments much appreciated! If you'd like a copy, email me at chris.trinder@gmail.com for a copy (unless someone can tell me how to place an attachment on a blog. other than an image!)
Finally, thanks to thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com for giving me an metion on his blog - it made my day!
http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com/2006/11/betfair-betting-blogs.html
'More of a tipping blog than a Betfair trading one, but one I like to read anyway, is Kicking Bets written by a guy called Chris. Been going for a nearly a year. Can't find the latest results but I think he's showing a 40 something or other per cent ROI. Perhaps not the biggest from a trading perspective but I think you'll be hard pressed to find an out and out tipster with better results'.
Whichever figure we use, I am happy with my performance. I'd be interested if anyone knows of any blog that can beat either these figures (or get close to them!) ... I want to read it! I would any wish those in the print/new media listed % profits (or losses) it would make it so much easier to know who to read! (i.e. whose judgement to trust)
Previously, I've been asked to post my results - I've an .xls with these, filtered by 'settled bets' and ordered by sport. Comments much appreciated! If you'd like a copy, email me at chris.trinder@gmail.com for a copy (unless someone can tell me how to place an attachment on a blog. other than an image!)
Finally, thanks to thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com for giving me an metion on his blog - it made my day!
http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com/2006/11/betfair-betting-blogs.html
'More of a tipping blog than a Betfair trading one, but one I like to read anyway, is Kicking Bets written by a guy called Chris. Been going for a nearly a year. Can't find the latest results but I think he's showing a 40 something or other per cent ROI. Perhaps not the biggest from a trading perspective but I think you'll be hard pressed to find an out and out tipster with better results'.
Saturday, December 23, 2006
Aus v Eng 4th Test - Man of the Match - Shane Warne - 4pts @ 6-1 (William Hill)
Australia are strong favoutrites to win this match, meaning an Australina player is likely to win Man of the Match. The ground is very much a 'home ground' for Shan Warene and he has a good bowling record here.
In addition, with Shane Warne announcing his imminent retirement frm test cricket, there will also be sentimental reasons to giuve him the award.
In addition, with Shane Warne announcing his imminent retirement frm test cricket, there will also be sentimental reasons to giuve him the award.
'Level Out' on Matt Dawson for SCD - lock in minimum 30 pts profit.
I'm going to lay Mark Ramprakash to take an (approximately) neutral position and lock in a (minimum) 30 pts. profit. Having backed Mark at 16-1, I would read the outocme this Saturday as a 'toss of the coin' job. Mark and Matt have been recently consistently 1 and 2 in the public vote (the only vote that will count this week) and the only time we have been certain of the order they finished in the public vote, it was Matt above Mark.Mark has not been consistent the best with his dancing, so he may not get the judges highest ratings (not that this will have a huge impact). Zoe Ball (last series) and Emma Bunton (this series) has showed the consistency of pro/anti voting for individulas, irrespective of their performance.I appreciate the polls have Mark a clear leader, I think they may be wrong.
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Update on Presidential Betting 2008 - New Bets (Guiliani 16-1, Gore 33-1)
As you can see from the above poll, the polling figures have changed a little since my last review one month ago. The key moves are as follows:Republican Candidate - It looks increasingly certain that Rice will not stand for the Republican candicacy. Guiliani has moved from 28% to 29%, McCain drops from 26% to 24% and Gingrich moves up from 7% to 13%.
I think Guiliani is great value at 16/1 for the Presidency, and I've had a further 6pts at 16-1 at William Hill.
Democrat Candidate - Clinton has strengthed her position, her support moving from 31% to 37%. Obama has dropped back from 19% to 15% and Gore has moved from 9% to 15%, now tying with Obama.
I've looked closely at Gore's position on the Presidency and he does not rule this out (although he isn't 'planning to stand', and easy get out). He has kept his profile very high with his enviromental campaigning and has the funds to mount a successful Candidature / Presidential campaigns. Clinton is clearly the most likely to be the Democratic Candidate, but 33-1 on Gore for President in 2008 is a great bet in my opinion.
I am having 6pts win at 33/1 on Gore for the Presidency (William Hill).
If Clinton does take the Democratic nomination, I think that either Guiliani (or McCain) willl be a very strong challenger. Guiliani's positions on social matters will win over potential Democratic voters (while not dropping to many Republican vites as they have nowhere to go). In contrast, it is unlikley that Clinton will take many Republican votes due to the fact she so strongly polarises opinion.
Complete Record of US bets.
10 pts Guiliani Next US President 16-1 (still availible, Willian Hill)
6 pts Gore Next US President 33-1 (still availible, William Hill)
5 pts Obama Democratic Nominee 8-1 (top price now 5-1, Ladbrokes)
4pts Obama Next US President 16-1 (top price now 9-1, William Hill)
2007 Sports Personality of the Year Preview - Lewis Hamilton - 4pts Win - 25-1
Most of my success this year has been in long term/antepost markets (especially in 'specialist' markets). With my recent win in the SPOTY 2006, I thought I'd take a look at SPOTY 2007.
Preview of the 2007 SPOTY.
Looking at past trends, the most likely winners of this event are as follows (in order of significance):
- Athletic Champions out Olynpics/World Championships
- England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
- Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
- Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
There are other possibilities if:
1. The individual dominates their sport e.g. Nick Faldo (1989), Steve Davis (1988)
2. The individual plays a key part of a team performance (Wilkinson (2003) - Rugby World Cup, Flintoff (2005), Botham (1981), both Ashes).
3. Special reasons (Philips (2006)) - Royalty
Lets consider these trends in turn for 2007
Athletic Champions (e.g at 2007 World Chamionships in Osaka)
Winning the event is a must. (Winning) success has been limited in major chamionships recently. Difficult to call at this point, probably best to wait until the events has happened (or just before). Would need to be a realtively high profile event. The most obvious candidate in Paula Radcliffe. N.B. For Ante Post betting 9 months ahead, injuries are always a problem.
England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
Unlikely to provide winner in 2007 - this rules out a signficant no. of the field! Footballers have only a likely chance in World Cup/European Championship years.
Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
The only likley possibilities are Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton.
Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
Andrew Murray is the most likely although there is a small chance of Tim Henman making an impact at Wimbledon.
Outside of these key areas, there are
- Golf - Major winners (my be enough in a weak year, especially given the length of time when a British player last won a Major). Would probably be easier to back this individual has they came into contention in the last few holes (or after they have won the tournament)
- Cricket - Ashes - if we win/retain the Ashes (unlikely), there could be a heroic performance, especially by Monty Panesar who the public have taken a liking to.
- Boxing - Boxers have had a previously good record, but that has fallen off recently - Audley Harrison is a possibility of he wins the Heavy Weight Championship at end 2007.
- Rugby - World Cup 2007 - the weak England Performance will likely count against a winner in this category. In addition, you would need pick a single indiviudal from the team, always tricky.
Summary
At this point, I woudl suggest that the only clear candidates are as follows:
Andrew Murray (8-1)
Paula Radcliffe (16-1)
Jenson Button (16-1)
Lewis Hamilton (25-1)
As per a previous post, I predict that Lewis Hamilton will do well in F1 this year - he is already testing impressively for McClaren, one of the three leading F1 teams. The upside is the fact he does not need to win F1, a 2nd place would probably be enough. The only downside is the possibility of split F1 votes with Jenson Button - unlikely, unless Jenson Button is also challenging for the championship.
I've therefore had 4pts win on Lewis Hamilton at 25-1.
I'll be keeping a careful watch on:
- Any Bristish golfer winning a Major (or looking likely to)
- England progress in the Rugby World Cup 2007 (especilly if an indiviual is is playing a 'starring role)
- Grand Slam progress of Murray/Henman
Most importantly, any Gold medals in high profile events at the World Athletic Chamionships - this is probably the key event. I will add any of this classification of World Athletic Championship winners to my 'portfolio'.
The key to getting value on this market (as all markets) is to react quickly if a player in one of the above key categories wins (or looks likely to win). Typically the SPOTY market first lags a little, then overreacts. The market 'overshoot' can be seen by the number of SPOTY 2006 runners who traded at (very) short prices 1 day after they had won their event.
Preview of the 2007 SPOTY.
Looking at past trends, the most likely winners of this event are as follows (in order of significance):
- Athletic Champions out Olynpics/World Championships
- England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
- Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
- Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
There are other possibilities if:
1. The individual dominates their sport e.g. Nick Faldo (1989), Steve Davis (1988)
2. The individual plays a key part of a team performance (Wilkinson (2003) - Rugby World Cup, Flintoff (2005), Botham (1981), both Ashes).
3. Special reasons (Philips (2006)) - Royalty
Lets consider these trends in turn for 2007
Athletic Champions (e.g at 2007 World Chamionships in Osaka)
Winning the event is a must. (Winning) success has been limited in major chamionships recently. Difficult to call at this point, probably best to wait until the events has happened (or just before). Would need to be a realtively high profile event. The most obvious candidate in Paula Radcliffe. N.B. For Ante Post betting 9 months ahead, injuries are always a problem.
England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
Unlikely to provide winner in 2007 - this rules out a signficant no. of the field! Footballers have only a likely chance in World Cup/European Championship years.
Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
The only likley possibilities are Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton.
Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
Andrew Murray is the most likely although there is a small chance of Tim Henman making an impact at Wimbledon.
Outside of these key areas, there are
- Golf - Major winners (my be enough in a weak year, especially given the length of time when a British player last won a Major). Would probably be easier to back this individual has they came into contention in the last few holes (or after they have won the tournament)
- Cricket - Ashes - if we win/retain the Ashes (unlikely), there could be a heroic performance, especially by Monty Panesar who the public have taken a liking to.
- Boxing - Boxers have had a previously good record, but that has fallen off recently - Audley Harrison is a possibility of he wins the Heavy Weight Championship at end 2007.
- Rugby - World Cup 2007 - the weak England Performance will likely count against a winner in this category. In addition, you would need pick a single indiviudal from the team, always tricky.
Summary
At this point, I woudl suggest that the only clear candidates are as follows:
Andrew Murray (8-1)
Paula Radcliffe (16-1)
Jenson Button (16-1)
Lewis Hamilton (25-1)
As per a previous post, I predict that Lewis Hamilton will do well in F1 this year - he is already testing impressively for McClaren, one of the three leading F1 teams. The upside is the fact he does not need to win F1, a 2nd place would probably be enough. The only downside is the possibility of split F1 votes with Jenson Button - unlikely, unless Jenson Button is also challenging for the championship.
I've therefore had 4pts win on Lewis Hamilton at 25-1.
I'll be keeping a careful watch on:
- Any Bristish golfer winning a Major (or looking likely to)
- England progress in the Rugby World Cup 2007 (especilly if an indiviual is is playing a 'starring role)
- Grand Slam progress of Murray/Henman
Most importantly, any Gold medals in high profile events at the World Athletic Chamionships - this is probably the key event. I will add any of this classification of World Athletic Championship winners to my 'portfolio'.
The key to getting value on this market (as all markets) is to react quickly if a player in one of the above key categories wins (or looks likely to win). Typically the SPOTY market first lags a little, then overreacts. The market 'overshoot' can be seen by the number of SPOTY 2006 runners who traded at (very) short prices 1 day after they had won their event.
Lay Alan Pardew - 4pts - Next West Ham Manager
One of my least inspired bets... I've watched many 'Next Manager' Markets and there are freuently several likely cnadidates that trade at approx 2.0 - 3.0. Not worked in this case though!
N.B. This post is after the event, just trying to kep this log an accurate reflection of my betting, so I have an accurate record.
Full analysis of my betting to follow over Christmas!
N.B. This post is after the event, just trying to kep this log an accurate reflection of my betting, so I have an accurate record.
Full analysis of my betting to follow over Christmas!
Sunday, December 10, 2006
4pts win Arsenal to beat Chelsea 6-1 (Betfair)
Asrenal are overpriced at 6-1 top beat Chelsea. Chelsea have a great record at home and Arsenal are missing Henry, Gallas and Toure, but should still not be 6-1. Much will depend on whether Chelsea set out to attack Arsenal - if this happens, Asrenal have the ability to hit Chelsea on the counter attack.
Arsenal's weak away form this year has been against physical temas such as Bolton - if Chelsea adopt this approach, they are likely to have more success.
Arsenal's weak away form this year has been against physical temas such as Bolton - if Chelsea adopt this approach, they are likely to have more success.
Saturday, December 09, 2006
3.10 - Arcalis - Cheltenham - 1pt win 33-1
With a small field, and soft ground, a surprise could happen in this race. I think that Detroit City is overrated, so there is value in the other runners. The 5-2 on Hardy Eustace has disapperaed, so I'm backing Arcalis at 33-1. He showed signs of come back to form in his last race, and, on this form, he is not many lbs behind Hardy Eustace and Detroit City.
2.40 - Tikram - 2pts win - Cheltenham (22-1, Betfair)
After an excellent 2nd to Dempsey in Jan 06, Tikram's form tailed off last year. Tikram has changed trainers over the summer to Alan King and I belive this in-form trainer can revitalise him. Tikram won't want the ground too soft, but can go well off a relatively low handicap mark (previoulsy won off this mark) . He has solid Cheltenham form (won the Mildmay of Flete in 2004 and 2nd in this race the same year), always expecially important for Cheltenham. The trip (2m 5f)will also hold no worries and has won fisrt time out in the past
A big danger is Reveillez (in terms of 'trends' he has all the 'tickes' in the boxes, but I am going to stick to one bet, Tikram).
A big danger is Reveillez (in terms of 'trends' he has all the 'tickes' in the boxes, but I am going to stick to one bet, Tikram).
Saturday, December 02, 2006
2pts E/W - 25-1 - Lewis Hamilton - 2007 F1 Championship
Lewis Hamilton has the chance to be one of the oustanding drivers of this generation. He succefully won the GP2 championship last yesr, a clear indication of his ability. He partners F1 Champion Alonso at the Mclaren this year. Hamilton is 25-1 and Alonso 2-1, too bigger price discrepancy in my opinion.
Full details on Hamilton can be seen on Wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Hamilton
I've now 2 drivers against the field (Lewis Hamilton, 25-1 and Kouvalainen, 33-1).
Full details on Hamilton can be seen on Wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Hamilton
I've now 2 drivers against the field (Lewis Hamilton, 25-1 and Kouvalainen, 33-1).
2pts Win - Steve Davis Premier League 20-1
Ronnie O'Sullivan is a worthy favourite for this, but at a best priced 1.4 (Betfair) he makes no appeal. Instead, I've sided with Steve Davis to win the tournament. He is in great form at present and, with the added advantage of playing on Behalf of Paul Hunter, will be motivated. He plays Ronnie O'Sullivan in the Semi Final.... however, Ronnie O'Sullian could potentially turn up in the wrong frame (sorry!) of mind. The added bonus is that I think that Jimmy White has a chance in the other semifinal (against Dott).
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Man Utd. v Everton - Everton to win 14/1 (Betfair) - 2pts
I don't nortmally back in football matches, but on a couple of occasions recenetly I've missed some real value bets (typically big 'drifters' pre-match on Betfair).
I believe this is the same situation tonight in the Man Utd v Everton game. Man Utd. are playing a weakend team. Of course, Everton are also missing some key plaayers but at 14/1 they have to be chanced (9/1 at conventional bookmakers).
I believe this is the same situation tonight in the Man Utd v Everton game. Man Utd. are playing a weakend team. Of course, Everton are also missing some key plaayers but at 14/1 they have to be chanced (9/1 at conventional bookmakers).
Sunday, November 19, 2006
2.35 Becher Chase - Dunbrody Millar - 2pts win - 18-1
I have the utmost respect for Clan Royal, but I think at 18-1 Dunbrody Millar is a great price. His 4th in the Topham last year (over a too short trip) shows his liking for these (special) National fences. He is only 4lbs higher than when winning the Agfa Diamond Chase, and his trainer Peter Bowen is currently in form. Dunbroody Millar's form talied off at the back end of last year, but he will and will benefit from a recent run.
NFL - Dallas v Indianapolis - 1pt 40-1 Romo First Touchdown.
Indianapolis are susceptible to touchdowns form Quarterbacks (have conceded 3 this year). Although he is yet to score a touchdown this year, Romo (Dallas QB) is probably overpriced at 40-1 to score the first TD. I'm having 1pt at 40-1 (Stan James).
N.B. The last 1st TD bet I had was on the Superbowl final... and I picked the wrong QB (the other scored first!)
N.B. The last 1st TD bet I had was on the Superbowl final... and I picked the wrong QB (the other scored first!)
Giuliani - Next President of USA - 2008 - 4pts 16-1 - William Hill
It is early days (just after Mid Terms), but the graphic above from www.pollingreport.com shows that each party as 2 main candidates. I've already backed Obama at 8/1 for Democratic Candisate and 16/1 for President. I'm adding to this 4pts at 16/1 (William Hill) on Giuliani - he is as short as 11/2 at vcbet.co.uk . He is not certainty to run, but at least he has submitted his Presidential nominee papers!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani
Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem Season 2007 - 0.5 pts Retired
Beckham's contract at Real Madrid expires in Summer 2007.
Skybet have opened up the market 'Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem. Season 2007 '
The President is keen to re-sign him but Beckham is not getting much football action from manger Capello at Real Madrid and has consequently stopped contract negotiations. Beckham may still stay at Real Madrid, but 7-4 is not a massive price - I'm not sure he will re-sign without guaranteed first team football (whcih he won't get). MLS in the US have lifted the salary cap for one 'star' player (for players such as Beckham) but 2-1 is not a big price either. He could come back to British football, but I think that is unlikely - I'm not sure he would want to play against his old club (which wouldn't rule at Rangers/Celtic, but they aren't quoted). You also need to specify a specific club, which is tricky.
Therefore, I believe the vaue is 33/1 on Beckham retiring. He is now in his early thirties and if he doesn't get a good offer, there is no need for him to continue (it is not as if he needs the money!) He is not being picked for England (and unlikley to be under McClaren), so that is not a factor. He may also suffer an injury, also terminating his career.
I'd make retiring a 10/1 chance.... if Skybet had allowed me I'd have had 2 pts - I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.
Skybet have opened up the market 'Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem. Season 2007 '
The President is keen to re-sign him but Beckham is not getting much football action from manger Capello at Real Madrid and has consequently stopped contract negotiations. Beckham may still stay at Real Madrid, but 7-4 is not a massive price - I'm not sure he will re-sign without guaranteed first team football (whcih he won't get). MLS in the US have lifted the salary cap for one 'star' player (for players such as Beckham) but 2-1 is not a big price either. He could come back to British football, but I think that is unlikely - I'm not sure he would want to play against his old club (which wouldn't rule at Rangers/Celtic, but they aren't quoted). You also need to specify a specific club, which is tricky.
Therefore, I believe the vaue is 33/1 on Beckham retiring. He is now in his early thirties and if he doesn't get a good offer, there is no need for him to continue (it is not as if he needs the money!) He is not being picked for England (and unlikley to be under McClaren), so that is not a factor. He may also suffer an injury, also terminating his career.
I'd make retiring a 10/1 chance.... if Skybet had allowed me I'd have had 2 pts - I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.
Britain's Greatest Living Icon - Stephen Fry - 20-1 - 0.5 pts
The BBC Culture show is running a poll for Britain's Greatest Living Icon. 2 bookies have opened books on this, Skybet and Paddy Power. There is is significant discrepencies between their prices. For me, the value bet is Stephen Fry at 20-1 - I'd make him a 4-1 chance. He has cross age/gender appeal and I believe will appeal to the viewers of the Culture show.
If Paddypower had allowed me, I'd have had 4pts win - as it is, I;m restricted to 0.5 pts. N.B. The other runner at a too big price is 6-1 on Paul McCartney at Sporting odds. However I'm restricting myself to one bet - it is possible that market could be manipulated by a campaign, most likely for a musician.
Full list of runners:
Sir David Attenborough
Michael Caine
Stephen Fry
Sir Paul McCartney
David Bowie
Vivienne Westwood
Alan Bennett
Morrissey
Kate Bush
Kate Moss
If Paddypower had allowed me, I'd have had 4pts win - as it is, I;m restricted to 0.5 pts. N.B. The other runner at a too big price is 6-1 on Paul McCartney at Sporting odds. However I'm restricting myself to one bet - it is possible that market could be manipulated by a campaign, most likely for a musician.
Full list of runners:
Sir David Attenborough
Michael Caine
Stephen Fry
Sir Paul McCartney
David Bowie
Vivienne Westwood
Alan Bennett
Morrissey
Kate Bush
Kate Moss
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Macdonald Brothers - 1.5 pts win - XFactor - 66/1 (Betfair)
Something very strange is happening in X Factor... I believe that the Mcdonald brothers can go far, despite not being the most talented (although they are improving). The reasons for this are:
i) Block Scottish vote c.f past X Factors.
ii) British voters love an underdog - Simon's continual tirades against them is only encouraging people to vote for them
This may mean that they have an outside chance... and many trading opportunities.
P.S. Ray Feardon left SCD last night (16-1) , 2 weeks after I tipped him at 33-1. A poor dance and the race factor did for him...just got my timing a little out.
Update: I've had a further 2 points win at 33/1 (Ladbrokes). Now the voting is only down to the public.... this coudl be close.
i) Block Scottish vote c.f past X Factors.
ii) British voters love an underdog - Simon's continual tirades against them is only encouraging people to vote for them
This may mean that they have an outside chance... and many trading opportunities.
P.S. Ray Feardon left SCD last night (16-1) , 2 weeks after I tipped him at 33-1. A poor dance and the race factor did for him...just got my timing a little out.
Update: I've had a further 2 points win at 33/1 (Ladbrokes). Now the voting is only down to the public.... this coudl be close.
Mexico GP - Dan Clark - 1pt Win 20-1
With AJ Allmendinger and Paul Tracey having exited Champ Cars, the way is clear for Dan Clark to make an impact. He will need luck to play a part, but at 20/1 he is a fair price to win tonight's Mexico GP.
Hennessy Gold Cup - Antepost - Star de Mohaison - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - 4pts win
To win the Hennessy, you need to be a young, progressive horse who fully stays 3m+. Star de Mohaison fits this bill perfectly. Running (and winning) a (hurdles) prep race at Cheltenham is also a plus... the only worry is the 11st 8lb he will need to carry (due to his high official rating). However, if he is a Gold Cup horse in the making he should be able to carry this weight.
Owner Robert Odgen's Racing Manager seems keen to send him to Newbury. If he makes the day (which is likely), I can see him starting at approx. 7-2.
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Saturday Racing.....
2.40 Chelt. 4pts Win Tumbling Dice @ 18-1 (Average Odds.... now availible at 20-1 on Betfair!)
3.45 Chelt. 1pts E/W Barrow Drive (40-1) (Betfair)
3.45 Chelt. 1pts E/W Barrow Drive (40-1) (Betfair)
Monday, November 06, 2006
Barack Obama - US Democratic Candidate - 5pts - 8-1
Barack Obama has taken the US political scene by storm in the past 2 weeks (Time covers etc.). I think he will play well with the Democrats voters... he has a JFK feeling about him.
His main rivals are Hilary Clinton and Al Gore.
Although I've missed the fancy prices, 8-1 is more than fair - I think he should be closer to a 5-2 chance. If he stands (which I think is likely) I believe he will beat Hilary Clinton. I think Hilary Clinton is underpriced at 11/8. Although she is likely to stand, she has the strong negative that she voted for the Iraq war (Obama voted against it). This could turn out to be the key issue in the next Presidential election (not the economy, stupid!)
She also polarises voters in the way that Obama doesn't - in current polls, Obama has a slight lead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama
Come on Iowa 2008!
Update: After the Mid Term elections, I've also added a furthe 4pts win on Barack Obama to be the next President at 16/1 at William Hill. After his commenst on the Larry King show, I am more than convinced than ever he will stand . There is still the hurdle of Hilary Clinton to overcome for the Democratic nomination and, if he gets this, the 'race factor' for the Presidency. However, 16-1 is too big.... I'd make him an 8-1 chance.
His main rivals are Hilary Clinton and Al Gore.
Although I've missed the fancy prices, 8-1 is more than fair - I think he should be closer to a 5-2 chance. If he stands (which I think is likely) I believe he will beat Hilary Clinton. I think Hilary Clinton is underpriced at 11/8. Although she is likely to stand, she has the strong negative that she voted for the Iraq war (Obama voted against it). This could turn out to be the key issue in the next Presidential election (not the economy, stupid!)
She also polarises voters in the way that Obama doesn't - in current polls, Obama has a slight lead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama
Come on Iowa 2008!
Update: After the Mid Term elections, I've also added a furthe 4pts win on Barack Obama to be the next President at 16/1 at William Hill. After his commenst on the Larry King show, I am more than convinced than ever he will stand . There is still the hurdle of Hilary Clinton to overcome for the Democratic nomination and, if he gets this, the 'race factor' for the Presidency. However, 16-1 is too big.... I'd make him an 8-1 chance.
F1 Grand Prix Championship 2007 - Kovalainen - 33-1 2.5 pts E/W
Kovalainen has a great chance of at least getting placed in next years F1 Championship. I've found 33-1 at sportsintercaction.com (he is generally a 16-1 chance). Unfortunately, they have only allowed me to place 0.5 pts E/W :(
He was test driver for Renault last year (after coming (narrowly) 2nd to Nico Rosbery in the Gp2 F1 feeder series the previosu year).
He is driving a Renault car and should out drive Fisichella. Renault and Ferrai are currently the 2 leading Manufacturers so a place finish (at worst) looks likely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Kovalainen
If anyone finds a bookie offering 33-1 who will take an additional bet, please let me know... I'm keeping my eye out as well. (Not all bookies have opened up on the 2007 F1 Championship yet).
Update: Bet365 have opened a book and priced Kovalainnen at 33/1 so I've added a further 2pts E/W (and updated the title)
He was test driver for Renault last year (after coming (narrowly) 2nd to Nico Rosbery in the Gp2 F1 feeder series the previosu year).
He is driving a Renault car and should out drive Fisichella. Renault and Ferrai are currently the 2 leading Manufacturers so a place finish (at worst) looks likely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Kovalainen
If anyone finds a bookie offering 33-1 who will take an additional bet, please let me know... I'm keeping my eye out as well. (Not all bookies have opened up on the 2007 F1 Championship yet).
Update: Bet365 have opened a book and priced Kovalainnen at 33/1 so I've added a further 2pts E/W (and updated the title)
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Emma Bunton to be evicted from SCD - 0.5 pts, 100/1
Emma Bunton has apparently had disagreements with her dancing partner. This will hinder dancing practice (reducing the judges votes) and public votes (as was seen last week - the public don't vote for 'moaners'.)
If she finishes mid divison, a shock coudl be on the cards- she is available at 66/1 for eviction at the bookies.
If she finishes mid divison, a shock coudl be on the cards- she is available at 66/1 for eviction at the bookies.
Breeders Cup Bets.
I've now completd my study on this event. However, I will post my bets approx. 5 mins before each raced. The reason for thsi is I wamt to have the choice of:
Inductry SPs (not likley)
Befair Prices
American Tote Prices
I've selected 2-3 horses per race, I'll make my final slection(s) depending on the prices availible just before the off... I think I may have some horse that will go off at 3 figues prices!
5.30 1.25 pts Win - Satulagi - 33-1..... can do a 'Wilko', the more adventerous could do worse than back her in running... if she wins, she will come from behind on the long straight.
6.10 0.5 pts Win - Malt Magic - 80-1 - highly regarded by legendary trainer Bob Baffert, there are excuses for his run in the G2 Norfolk after a scintillating previous performance. Could be anything.... so 100-1 is a fair price.
6.55 No bet - I really hope Ouija Board wins, not I'm not confident - she'll need to be at her best.......Update : Oujia Board wins!
7.35 1pt Win - Attila's Storm - 33-1 - I believe that a high draw is a benefit in this race (Update : I'll ignore stats in future), therefore my 2 against the field are Siren Lure and Attila's Storm. Sligt prefernce is for Attila's storm as, although Siren Lure is more progressive, Attila's Storm is 5 times the price. He is a front runner who just might never be caught...
Oops.... I thought that it was coincidence that the first 2 dirt races were won by Draw 1... and then in the 3rd dirt race, the horse from Draw 1 wins again at 14-1! :(....... I'm going to keep a watching brief now until things are clearer.....
8.15 No bet - I think that Aragorn as a good chance, but is not a massive price at 4-1. Update Aragorn 2nd... back to the dirt.
8.55 No bet .... Update: Drawn 1 has flown in again (on the Dirt) at 16-1! Unbelievable... it s like Chester!
Inductry SPs (not likley)
Befair Prices
American Tote Prices
I've selected 2-3 horses per race, I'll make my final slection(s) depending on the prices availible just before the off... I think I may have some horse that will go off at 3 figues prices!
5.30 1.25 pts Win - Satulagi - 33-1..... can do a 'Wilko', the more adventerous could do worse than back her in running... if she wins, she will come from behind on the long straight.
6.10 0.5 pts Win - Malt Magic - 80-1 - highly regarded by legendary trainer Bob Baffert, there are excuses for his run in the G2 Norfolk after a scintillating previous performance. Could be anything.... so 100-1 is a fair price.
6.55 No bet - I really hope Ouija Board wins, not I'm not confident - she'll need to be at her best.......Update : Oujia Board wins!
7.35 1pt Win - Attila's Storm - 33-1 - I believe that a high draw is a benefit in this race (Update : I'll ignore stats in future), therefore my 2 against the field are Siren Lure and Attila's Storm. Sligt prefernce is for Attila's storm as, although Siren Lure is more progressive, Attila's Storm is 5 times the price. He is a front runner who just might never be caught...
Oops.... I thought that it was coincidence that the first 2 dirt races were won by Draw 1... and then in the 3rd dirt race, the horse from Draw 1 wins again at 14-1! :(....... I'm going to keep a watching brief now until things are clearer.....
8.15 No bet - I think that Aragorn as a good chance, but is not a massive price at 4-1. Update Aragorn 2nd... back to the dirt.
8.55 No bet .... Update: Drawn 1 has flown in again (on the Dirt) at 16-1! Unbelievable... it s like Chester!
Friday, November 03, 2006
Carl Johanneson vs Femi Fehintola - 2pts Fehintola to win om pts - 12-1 (Ladbrokes)
Fehintola has won most of his fights recently on poitns (admitedly over shorter distances). Johnanneson is a definite favourite for the fight (and rightly so). However, most of his recent fights have been KOs in early rounds. If the fight progresses to later rounds, Fehintola has a decent chance of nicking this on points at (a more than fair) 12-1.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
2pts Win Geordieland 16-1 (Centrebet) Melbourne Cup
Geordiealnd has had a smoooth prepartion for the Melbourne Cup (unlike most of the European runners). Regular readers of my blog will know I'm a real fan of Geordieland. He think he a great chance in this race....(not taking anything away from Yeats).
Monday, October 30, 2006
Barcelona v Chelsea - Time of First Goal 81+ minutes - 25-1 1pt
I expect Chelsae to play defensively in this match which means that goals may be hard to find. However, if the score is 0-0 after 80 minutes, Barcelona will throw men forward (and could be hit on the break).
The additional advantage of this bet is you gave probably 3-4 mins of extra time to collect.
The additional advantage of this bet is you gave probably 3-4 mins of extra time to collect.
Saturday, October 28, 2006
Strictly Come Dancing - Next Elimination - Ray Fearon - 33/1 -1pt
There is a definite trend in Reality TV programs for non-white contestants to receive low public votes (lower than they should according to their performances). While you can speculate on the reasons for this, the patten is so pronounced it cannot be disputed.
With black contestants Mica Paris and DJ Spooney already being voted off, Ray Fearon must be at risk. He is an excellent dancer but, if he has an average day, he may finish 3rd/4th from bottom. As DJ Spooney found to his cost last week, this may not be good enough for him to survive once the public votes have been added.
With black contestants Mica Paris and DJ Spooney already being voted off, Ray Fearon must be at risk. He is an excellent dancer but, if he has an average day, he may finish 3rd/4th from bottom. As DJ Spooney found to his cost last week, this may not be good enough for him to survive once the public votes have been added.
3.25 - Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase - Kingscliff - 2pts win 8/1
Kingscliff ran well to finish 2nd in this rac last year showing he has a liking for this course/distance. He is well suited by the soft ground and fits the profile of typical winners of this race (experienced, top class chasers with course form).
Counting against him is the fact that his form tailed off at the end lof last year and that conditions of the race means he gives weight away to most of his rivals. I'm too concerned about these neagtives as he normally goes well fresh (i.e. the tailoff in form has an explanation) and his big frame means that he will be able to shoulder the big weight better than most.
Counting against him is the fact that his form tailed off at the end lof last year and that conditions of the race means he gives weight away to most of his rivals. I'm too concerned about these neagtives as he normally goes well fresh (i.e. the tailoff in form has an explanation) and his big frame means that he will be able to shoulder the big weight better than most.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
Reading v Arsenal 0.5 pts E/W - Gallas - Betdirect 40-1
Event Details
Premier League - Reading v Arsenal 2006-10-22 16:00:00
Market
First Goalscorer (Each Way 1/3 1-2-3-4)
Selection
William Gallas @ 40/1
No special insight, just a recognition that Gallas gets forward regularly, has scored alreday this season and Arsenal are odds-on favs. Bet Direct's favourable E/W terms make this a reasonable bet.. worth 0.5 pts E/W anyway!
Premier League - Reading v Arsenal 2006-10-22 16:00:00
Market
First Goalscorer (Each Way 1/3 1-2-3-4)
Selection
William Gallas @ 40/1
No special insight, just a recognition that Gallas gets forward regularly, has scored alreday this season and Arsenal are odds-on favs. Bet Direct's favourable E/W terms make this a reasonable bet.. worth 0.5 pts E/W anyway!
F1 - Brazil Grand Prix - Alonso 8-1 (Betfair) - 5pts win
I think that Alonso is a geat price at 8-1 (as short as 7-2 at convetional bookmmakers).
Michael Schumacher (at 10th on the grid at best) has it all to do to win this race. The Ferrais are certainly fastest, but there are obviously mechanical issues so at 4-1, he is not a great price. Massa has a reasonable chance, but evens is too short..... he will have to make way for Michale Schumacher if there is any possibility of Schumacher winning the drivers championship.
There are plenty of conspiracy theories around with Raikkonen or Massa taking out Alonso. While neither will pull out of any 50/50 with Alonso, I don't think eitehr will delibeartely run Alonso off the road. (It would have been different if Michael Schumahcer was leading the championship from Alonso!).
Alonso will play it safe, however Renault will be trying to win the Constrcutors championship (currently 9 pts) and will want to maximise their points. In addition, Michelin runners are more competitive with Bridgestone runners come race time rather than on single laps.
Finally, what happens if rains arrives? The Bridgestone shod Ferraris will be nowhere.
Michael Schumacher (at 10th on the grid at best) has it all to do to win this race. The Ferrais are certainly fastest, but there are obviously mechanical issues so at 4-1, he is not a great price. Massa has a reasonable chance, but evens is too short..... he will have to make way for Michale Schumacher if there is any possibility of Schumacher winning the drivers championship.
There are plenty of conspiracy theories around with Raikkonen or Massa taking out Alonso. While neither will pull out of any 50/50 with Alonso, I don't think eitehr will delibeartely run Alonso off the road. (It would have been different if Michael Schumahcer was leading the championship from Alonso!).
Alonso will play it safe, however Renault will be trying to win the Constrcutors championship (currently 9 pts) and will want to maximise their points. In addition, Michelin runners are more competitive with Bridgestone runners come race time rather than on single laps.
Finally, what happens if rains arrives? The Bridgestone shod Ferraris will be nowhere.
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Saturday Racing - Newbury
3.15 Racing Post Trophy Red Rock Canyon - 1pt E/W
This strikes me as a good each way bet @ 40/1.... I've great respect for Eagle Mountain and Regime, but with soft ground at Newbury surely it woudln't be a complete surprise is a Aiden O'Brien 2nd string got placed (or even won!).
2.05 Desert Dew - 11/1 - 2pts Win
This strikes me as a good each way bet @ 40/1.... I've great respect for Eagle Mountain and Regime, but with soft ground at Newbury surely it woudln't be a complete surprise is a Aiden O'Brien 2nd string got placed (or even won!).
2.05 Desert Dew - 11/1 - 2pts Win
Sunday, October 15, 2006
A1GP - France to win Championship - 4-1 - 10 pts win
France were the runaway winners of last years A1GP championship. In the first 2 races this year (of a 12 race championship) they have had been unfortunate not to finish either race because of two mechanical failures.
In my judgement, they should be an approx. 2-1 chance. This is a perfect example of a markets over reacting to short term events.
In my judgement, they should be an approx. 2-1 chance. This is a perfect example of a markets over reacting to short term events.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Calzaghe v Bika - Preview
Calzaghe is one of the geatest British boxers at present, but strange things can happen in Boxing. Bika has come here to fight and should not the price his is....... if he is going to win, I suspect it will be on points. The most likley scenario for this to happen is if there is a re-occurence of Calzaghe's hand injury which would limit his ability to box.
A draw is another possibility, most likely through an early injury e.g clash of heads... the match is automatically a draw if this happens in the first 4 rounds. (which is what happended in Bika's last fight.)
Bika to win on points - 40-1 - 1 pt
Calzaghe v Bika - draw - 66-1 - 1pt
(Both at Betfair)
A draw is another possibility, most likely through an early injury e.g clash of heads... the match is automatically a draw if this happens in the first 4 rounds. (which is what happended in Bika's last fight.)
Bika to win on points - 40-1 - 1 pt
Calzaghe v Bika - draw - 66-1 - 1pt
(Both at Betfair)
Saturday Racing.....
I'm having 1pt on a Scoop 6 perm..... as well as the following Pricewise inspired bets
- 1pt win 40-1 Trance 2.50 Newmarket
- 1pt win 20-1 Prime Defender 4.10 Newmarket
- 1pt win 40-1 Trance 2.50 Newmarket
- 1pt win 20-1 Prime Defender 4.10 Newmarket
Friday, October 13, 2006
Gammer v Steeds - Steeds to win on points - 7/1 Totesport, 4pts.
Given these boxers recents records, I think it is likley that this match will go to points. Thes prices on the points outcomes are
Gammer 8-11
Steeds 7-1
Gammer is short because he is a (slightly) better boxer and has a past defeat of Steeds. However, Totepsort have overreacted and the 7-1 on Steeds on points is a great price... I'd make it closer to a 3-1 chance.
Gammer 8-11
Steeds 7-1
Gammer is short because he is a (slightly) better boxer and has a past defeat of Steeds. However, Totepsort have overreacted and the 7-1 on Steeds on points is a great price... I'd make it closer to a 3-1 chance.
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Padraig Harrington - European Order of Merit - 7-1 (Betfair) - 5pts Win
If Harrington wins today (for which is is an approx 5/4 chance, he will be probably be a 6-4 chance to win the Eupean OoM. He will still be a little being the leader Casey, I believe he will then decide to play in the Mallorca tournament (I suspect his participation depends on his performance this weekend.)
There is then the final event of the season (the Volvo Masters) where there is a large amount of prize money up for grabs...
There is then the final event of the season (the Volvo Masters) where there is a large amount of prize money up for grabs...
Stricly Come Dancing - Mark Ramprakash - 16-1 - 4pts win - William Hill
Having watched SCD, I belive that Mark Ramprakash as a live chance. His dancing partner has ensured he (like her previous partner) has make strong progress in in the initial 3 weeks. As Darren Gough showed in the previous series, being a sportman rather than entertainer is no barrier.
Likely (male) rivals are Ray Fearon and DJ Spoony, but the British public have not great records in voting for non white particpants. He is more lilely to be beaten by a femal partcipant, most probably Emma Bunton or Loiusa Lytton (going on pre-SCD experience.) However, they are both corresponding short prices and I prefer to see partcipants before placing my bets.
Likely (male) rivals are Ray Fearon and DJ Spoony, but the British public have not great records in voting for non white particpants. He is more lilely to be beaten by a femal partcipant, most probably Emma Bunton or Loiusa Lytton (going on pre-SCD experience.) However, they are both corresponding short prices and I prefer to see partcipants before placing my bets.
Sunday, October 01, 2006
Rail Link/Arc - the bet that nearly got away.
Approx. 1 month ago I looked at Arc trends and it was clear that the winner of the Prix Niel has a strong record in the Arc. I looked at likley winners of the Prix Niel and it looked like this would be Rail Link.
I even went as far as asking for prices from bookies.... only some would offer prices (some hadn't heard of the horse!)), 25-1 being the general price. Rather than backing my judgement at that point (which I should have done), I thought I would wait until the line up to the Prix Niel was clearer (not sure at that point what the entries were). I didn't expect prices to change much.
Of course, as the day of the Prix Niel approaches, Rail Link's price crashed to approx 7-1! A win in the Prix Niel was not overly imprssive, so he therefore remained at 7-1.
I did't expect to have a bet in the Arc. However, approx 5 mins before the race, watching BBC coverage, it was clear that the Japanese had gone mad and backed Deep Impact into 1-2 on the PMU. Consquently Rail Link was approx 25-1, the price I'd misssed 1 month ago!
Therefore, I had 2pts on the PMU at what turned out to be 24-1.
I am sure this sort of opportunity will raise it's head in the Breeders Cup... my advice is to look for overseas horse that are overpriced on the American Tote... however, you will need to react quick i.e. place bets close to the off - I'd take the UK morning prices as accurate representation of chances of overseas horses.
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Miss World - Miss Slovenia - 100-1-1pts win
Miss Slovenia has the looks and personality to make a serious challenge for Miss World. She has the darker skin/dark hair that has been particulary successful recently. She is a member of Mensa, a successful business womain and President of a Peace foundation.
http://www.missworld.tv/bio/bio.sps?iBiographyID=92266
http://www.missworld.tv/bio/bio.sps?iBiographyID=92266
F1 - Toyota have podium possibilities in China Grand Prix.
I'm having 1pt on both Ralf Schumacher (50-1) and Janro Trulli (50-1) to grab a podium position. (2pts in total)
Everything depends on the weather tomorrow. If it rains, the Michelin runners will dominate the race (barring extraordinary circumstances, always a possibility in the rain). However, with dry conditions (or drying), things could be much closer. In this case, the Bridgestone clad Toyotas have podium possibilities. They were unlucky in (wet) qualifying. However, if the track is dry, China is a circuit you can pass on and the Toyotas could make their way through the field.
Of course, they will probably need some retirements during the race, but with potentially changing weather conditions this is more likely than usual.
Hungary shows what is possible in F1 when the rain comes down...
Everything depends on the weather tomorrow. If it rains, the Michelin runners will dominate the race (barring extraordinary circumstances, always a possibility in the rain). However, with dry conditions (or drying), things could be much closer. In this case, the Bridgestone clad Toyotas have podium possibilities. They were unlucky in (wet) qualifying. However, if the track is dry, China is a circuit you can pass on and the Toyotas could make their way through the field.
Of course, they will probably need some retirements during the race, but with potentially changing weather conditions this is more likely than usual.
Hungary shows what is possible in F1 when the rain comes down...
3.45 Newmarket - Fairmile - 2pts win 9-1
With stamina doubts for the fav. I belive he is there to be shot at. I'm backing Fairmile... the postives are as follows:
- Good draw (high, 32)
- 4 year old
- Lightly raced and good recent form (and improving)
- Will handle soft ground (has won on it)
- 1m 1f trip no problem as can stay 1m 2f
At a bigger prices, I like Illustrious Blue and Stagelight, but I'm sticking to just one bet.
- Good draw (high, 32)
- 4 year old
- Lightly raced and good recent form (and improving)
- Will handle soft ground (has won on it)
- 1m 1f trip no problem as can stay 1m 2f
At a bigger prices, I like Illustrious Blue and Stagelight, but I'm sticking to just one bet.
Monday, September 25, 2006
Lay Gordon Brown at 1.5 for next Labour Leader
When Newsnight used pollster Chuck Luntz to show Cameron had the greatest appeal to votes, his price halved overnoight for the Conservative leadership (which he went onto win). With a poor Tory Conference speech, Davisd Davies nver recovered.
Tonight, Chuck Luntz will show on Newsnight what little appeal Gordon Bron have to voters and this coudl have a similar affect to the Cameron program.
Either way, this is a lay to back bet (this week) - I can't see anything improving the situation and, as a conseqence of this pogram, Brown could drift to 1.6/1.7.
(I'm already on John Reid at 18-1 for next Labour Leader who does well in the program... his price has havled to 9/1)
Tonight, Chuck Luntz will show on Newsnight what little appeal Gordon Bron have to voters and this coudl have a similar affect to the Cameron program.
Either way, this is a lay to back bet (this week) - I can't see anything improving the situation and, as a conseqence of this pogram, Brown could drift to 1.6/1.7.
(I'm already on John Reid at 18-1 for next Labour Leader who does well in the program... his price has havled to 9/1)
Sunday, September 24, 2006
Champ Cars - Road America - Preview
Sportingodds have made a serious 'rick' on this race. This have priced up AJ Allmendinger at 7-1 when other bookies have more accurately priced him at 5-2. I would have has a max. bet on this, but Sportingodds have limited my stake to 3pts win.
His low place on the grid (5th) is primariy dure to the Sat. qualfiying session being washed out.
Alex Tagliani is also good value at 20-1 at Stan James... I've had 1pts E/W. Sportingodds go a (baffling) 9-2... he is probably an approx 12-1 chance.
His low place on the grid (5th) is primariy dure to the Sat. qualfiying session being washed out.
Alex Tagliani is also good value at 20-1 at Stan James... I've had 1pts E/W. Sportingodds go a (baffling) 9-2... he is probably an approx 12-1 chance.
Position after 9 months.
Position after 9 months
Points staked on settled bets = 588.5
Points returned on settled bets= 822
Profit on settled bets = 28.4 %
Points staked on unsettled bets = 50.5
Most of my Antpeost bets have fortunately come in... having locked in my profits on Ferrari, my only signficant Antepost bet left oustanding is on Sports Personality of the Year where I have 6 pts on @ 11/1 (now a 6/4 chance).
I'm hoping to add Man Utd at double figures at some point to add to my 15/1 on Arsenal and 18/l on Liverpool. I'm hoping to be neutral on Chelsea if they touch Evs at any point.
Points staked on settled bets = 588.5
Points returned on settled bets= 822
Profit on settled bets = 28.4 %
Points staked on unsettled bets = 50.5
Most of my Antpeost bets have fortunately come in... having locked in my profits on Ferrari, my only signficant Antepost bet left oustanding is on Sports Personality of the Year where I have 6 pts on @ 11/1 (now a 6/4 chance).
I'm hoping to add Man Utd at double figures at some point to add to my 15/1 on Arsenal and 18/l on Liverpool. I'm hoping to be neutral on Chelsea if they touch Evs at any point.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Ryder Cup Preview
I am absolutely convinced that Europe will win the Ryder Cup. For this reason, it is quite possible that the top US point scorer could could be won with a low figure.
I'm siding with JJ Henry at 33-1 at Ladbrokes. With top 10 finishes in his last 3 tournamnets, he is a man in form and has been selected to play on the first morning. A win then could mean that he gets to play in a good few Ryder Cup matches.
The tough weather will mean that is long driving is an asset. I'd make him a 12-1 chance.
I'm having 2pts E/W.
I'm siding with JJ Henry at 33-1 at Ladbrokes. With top 10 finishes in his last 3 tournamnets, he is a man in form and has been selected to play on the first morning. A win then could mean that he gets to play in a good few Ryder Cup matches.
The tough weather will mean that is long driving is an asset. I'd make him a 12-1 chance.
I'm having 2pts E/W.
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Liverpool - Premiership - 18-1 (Betfair) - 4pts
I'm adding this bet to a portfolio I;m building up on the 'Big 4' in the Premiership. I now have the following:
Liverpool - 4pts 18-1
Arsenal - 4pts 15-1
I don't believe the gap between Man Utd/Chelsea vrs Arsenal/Liverpool is a large as the market suggests... this is a typical short term market over-reaction.
Update: Following Arsenal's win, they have shortened in price from 20-1 to 10-1 on Betfair. Nothing better illustrates the madness of markets.
Liverpool - 4pts 18-1
Arsenal - 4pts 15-1
I don't believe the gap between Man Utd/Chelsea vrs Arsenal/Liverpool is a large as the market suggests... this is a typical short term market over-reaction.
Update: Following Arsenal's win, they have shortened in price from 20-1 to 10-1 on Betfair. Nothing better illustrates the madness of markets.
Liverpool to beat Chelsea (5-1), Arsenal to beat Man Utd. (7-2) - Double (approx). 25-1 Betfair - 2pts
I've spent a little time looking at these matches and I think all results in each match are very possible. For that reason I'm having a speculative double on Liverpool/Arsenal.
I just can't see how Chelsea/Man Utd can be value at a shade of odds on/odds against.
Update: Extrabet seem to be displaying very strange prices on 'Anytime Goalscorer'. They are top price (often by a signficant margin)
I just can't see how Chelsea/Man Utd can be value at a shade of odds on/odds against.
Update: Extrabet seem to be displaying very strange prices on 'Anytime Goalscorer'. They are top price (often by a signficant margin)
Horse Racing Update - Ayr/Newbury - 6pts Loss
Across the 2 days of each of these meetings, I managed to lose 6pts. While not much in the scheme of things, by reducing the no. (and increasing the size) of my bets I maneged to miss out on the following winners:
In these races I had 'no bet' when I thought these were the values bets! Oh well.
Fri 4.30 Ayr - Geojimali - Silver Cup EP 33-1 (William Hill), SP 20-1 .... drawn on highest (with a draw a likely signifcant factor)
Sat. 2.25 Newbury - Captain Marvelous - Opened 25-1, SP 20-1...one of only 2 horse with Grp 1. entries.
In additon, 2 weeks before the Prix Niel, I had a strong fancy that Rail Link woudl win. It was approx 25-1 at for the Arc at the time.. it is now an 8-1 shot!
In these races I had 'no bet' when I thought these were the values bets! Oh well.
Fri 4.30 Ayr - Geojimali - Silver Cup EP 33-1 (William Hill), SP 20-1 .... drawn on highest (with a draw a likely signifcant factor)
Sat. 2.25 Newbury - Captain Marvelous - Opened 25-1, SP 20-1...one of only 2 horse with Grp 1. entries.
In additon, 2 weeks before the Prix Niel, I had a strong fancy that Rail Link woudl win. It was approx 25-1 at for the Arc at the time.. it is now an 8-1 shot!
Sunday, September 10, 2006
IRL - (Partial) Cover on Championship
Those who raed my column regularly will know I backed Sam Hornish at 9/2 (10pts) at the start of the seaosn (March 2006). He has been as short as 1-8 at one point in the season (followed by a DNF!).
The betting on the IRL championship now with one race to go is:
Hornish, Sam 8/13
Castroneves, Helio 5/4
Wheldon, Dan 16/1
Dixon, Scott 28/1
As a cover, I've now had 4 pts on Wheldon and 2pts on Dixon. What I'm *hoping* is to be able to back Castroneves at 16/1 at some point during the race (when I will then have full cover).... the worst case scenario will be a Castroneves win from start to finish... I'll then have lost a further 6pts by attempting to cover!
The betting on the IRL championship now with one race to go is:
Hornish, Sam 8/13
Castroneves, Helio 5/4
Wheldon, Dan 16/1
Dixon, Scott 28/1
As a cover, I've now had 4 pts on Wheldon and 2pts on Dixon. What I'm *hoping* is to be able to back Castroneves at 16/1 at some point during the race (when I will then have full cover).... the worst case scenario will be a Castroneves win from start to finish... I'll then have lost a further 6pts by attempting to cover!
NFL Superbowl - 2pts E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4 Arizona Cardinals - 40-1
Arizona had a strong defence last season but were let down by their inabilty to convert their offensive possesion into touchdowns. Consequenty, they finished a disappointing 5-11. The addition of running back Edgerrin James should go part way to resolving this issue. With Field Goal specialist Neil Rackers, Arizona could spring a suprise.
Saturday, September 09, 2006
2pts - 1st Goal Scorer - Darren Bent - 16-1 - Chelsea v Charlton
Darren Bent (Charlton) has scored 3 golas already this season (2 of them penalties). If Charlton are to take the lead against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, it is likely that he will score the goal. The 16-1 at Betdirect is more than fair.
1pt E/W Sami Hyppia 1st Goal Scorer (Bet Direct) 40-1 - 1/3 1,2,3,4
Sam Hyppia scores approx 5% of Liverpool's goals, therefore the 40-1 at BetDitewct is good value. Bet Direct also offer good E/W value going 1/3 odds 4 places.
Everton v Liverpool is often a tight game, but there is a reasonable possibility of 4 goals.
Everton v Liverpool is often a tight game, but there is a reasonable possibility of 4 goals.
Blair Switch Project - 1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1), 1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).
This week has shown how true it is that a 'week is a long time in politics'. Therefore, how long is a year? Blair has stated he will stand down by, at the latest, Sept 2006. However, there a variety of situations where Blair will claim 'it is the the national interest' for him to stay beyond this date. Therefore I am having the follwoing bets at Betfair:
Blair Switch Project
1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1)
1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).
Blair Switch Project
1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1)
1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Ask - 2pts E/W - 20/1 St. Leger
Ask is proven over course, distance and likley ground. On official ratings he has a signifianct amount to find, but he is progressive and has a great chance of at least getting placed.
I think Sixties Icon is a poor value favourite at 5/4.
Update:
I remain convinced that Sixties Icon is a poor favourite. However, as well as Ask, I also like the chance of outsiders Mont Toile and Galient - both are 28-1 at Betfair. However, I am refraining from having any further investment in this race.
I think Sixties Icon is a poor value favourite at 5/4.
Update:
I remain convinced that Sixties Icon is a poor favourite. However, as well as Ask, I also like the chance of outsiders Mont Toile and Galient - both are 28-1 at Betfair. However, I am refraining from having any further investment in this race.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Macedonia v England - 2pts win Macedonia @ 14-1 (Betfair)
Macedonai have been underated in this match. They are a resonable side with good recnet draw with Holland. In the previous qualifying tournament against England there was a draw at St. Marys and a narrow loss at home.
Macedonia have a new manager with a good track record who is perfectly capable of engineeriung an upset.
(I also considered Macedonia HT/England FT at 33-1).
Macedonia have a new manager with a good track record who is perfectly capable of engineeriung an upset.
(I also considered Macedonia HT/England FT at 33-1).
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Rugby Union - Worcester v Bristol - No Tryscorer, Draw Scorecast - 200-1.
The Racingpost states today that last year there were 3/132 games that had 'No Tryscorer' with the game finishing a Draw.
The Worcester v Bristol game is likely to a close fought, low try scoring game. The weather is rainy/windy and both sides have strong defences. In addition, with this being the fisrt game of the season, both sides could be cautious.
I'm having a speculative 0.5 pts at Bet365 on this scorecast at 200-1.
The Worcester v Bristol game is likely to a close fought, low try scoring game. The weather is rainy/windy and both sides have strong defences. In addition, with this being the fisrt game of the season, both sides could be cautious.
I'm having a speculative 0.5 pts at Bet365 on this scorecast at 200-1.
Friday, September 01, 2006
Rugby Union - Premierhsip - Top Tryscorer Market
Sale and Leicester are two of the ourights favourites for the Premierhsip. so I have selected a player from each of these sides to be overall Premiership top tryscorer (at Ladbrokes):
- 2pst E/W 25-1 Steve Hanley (Sale)
- 2pts E/W 80-1 Geordan Murphy (Leicester)
- 2pst E/W 25-1 Steve Hanley (Sale)
- 2pts E/W 80-1 Geordan Murphy (Leicester)
Monday, August 28, 2006
Lock in min. 42 pts profit on F1 - (back Renault 11.5 pts @ 9/2, McLaren 0.5 pts @ 200/1)
With Ferrari now 1/5 favourites, now is the time to lock in the profts I made by backing Ferrari @ 6/1. To do this I've backed at Extrabet the following:
Reanualt 11.5 pts @9/2
McLaren 1pt @ 200/1... Renault/Ferrrai disqualfied?
This gives me a 42 pt win if Renault win and 48pt win if Ferrrai win.
( Given the uncertainty of F1 (e.g Dixon last nioght), I actually think that Renault are a more than fair price at 9/2).
Reanualt 11.5 pts @9/2
McLaren 1pt @ 200/1... Renault/Ferrrai disqualfied?
This gives me a 42 pt win if Renault win and 48pt win if Ferrrai win.
( Given the uncertainty of F1 (e.g Dixon last nioght), I actually think that Renault are a more than fair price at 9/2).
Pakistan v England - 20/20 Lay Pakistan @ 1.04 (2pts)
Pakistan needed 30 from 32 balls with 6 wickets remaining. Inzy looked like he wasn't concentrating.... laid Pakistan for 2 pts @1.04 to win 50 pts.
1pt Darren Gough - Top English Batsman - 66-1
20/20 matches always have the potential for lower order batsman to topscore. Although this is Pakistan's fisrt 20/20 game, they have a strong attacking lineup and may be able to destroy England's top batting order.
Darren Gough has a lot to prove on his first game back, and has a chance to top score with the bat.
Darren Gough has a lot to prove on his first game back, and has a chance to top score with the bat.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Dan Clarke 1.5 pts win 0.5 pts place 40-1 - Grand Prix of Montreal
With the wet track, there is the chance of an upset in this race (cf. Hunary for F1 3 weeks ago). 'Speedy' Dan Clarke (placed last time) is perfectly capable of providing this upset.
He was placed in the last race when Tracy collided with Bourdais (an event that could easily happen again!).
Clarke is a generally availible at 40-1.
Post Race Update: Dan Clarke finished 4th by backing up the field to let his colleague, who was pitting, finish 3rd.
He was placed in the last race when Tracy collided with Bourdais (an event that could easily happen again!).
Clarke is a generally availible at 40-1.
Post Race Update: Dan Clarke finished 4th by backing up the field to let his colleague, who was pitting, finish 3rd.
6pts win 11/1 (Extrabet) Zara Philips - Sports Personality of the Year
Zara Philips has just won the Gold in the 3 day eventing World Championships. I am 'gutted' I missed the 40/1 last night on Zara Philips to win SPoY (when she was likely to win gold, or the 16/1 at William Hill while I was trying to register a new Credit Card online).
However, the 11/1 at Extrabet is still a great price on her to follow in her mother's foosteps in weak SPoY market. She has a strong combination of public recognition and actually winning an World Championship event (on BBC, which will help). By betting on Extrabet, this also gives me a chance to lock in a profit at a later date.
Most bookies suspened betting in the last 15 mins (as the price crashed from 28/1 to 8/1). Betfair are still currently trading - Zara is 3/1 (little liquidity)
This bet adds to my current portfolio of Jenson Button (start of sesaon) and Colin Montgomerie (during US Open).
Update: Now into 5/1 (3/1 at William Hill, 2.9 matched on Betfair)!
2nd Update: Zara Philips is now a 3/1 chance! I think this is a 2 horse race between Philips and Murray (which will be decided by how far Murray progresses in the US Open.)
However, the 11/1 at Extrabet is still a great price on her to follow in her mother's foosteps in weak SPoY market. She has a strong combination of public recognition and actually winning an World Championship event (on BBC, which will help). By betting on Extrabet, this also gives me a chance to lock in a profit at a later date.
Most bookies suspened betting in the last 15 mins (as the price crashed from 28/1 to 8/1). Betfair are still currently trading - Zara is 3/1 (little liquidity)
This bet adds to my current portfolio of Jenson Button (start of sesaon) and Colin Montgomerie (during US Open).
Update: Now into 5/1 (3/1 at William Hill, 2.9 matched on Betfair)!
2nd Update: Zara Philips is now a 3/1 chance! I think this is a 2 horse race between Philips and Murray (which will be decided by how far Murray progresses in the US Open.)
1pt win - Regional Counsel - Curragh 4:25 (Saturday)
I placed this bet yesterady, so this is just for the record. I quite fancied the horse as it was the only one with Group Level form.... managed to finish 5th of 7
IRL - Grand Prix of Sonoma - Preview - 8:30 Sunday
As per my early post this week, I am convinced that (still) the bookies have priced this market wrong. For a road race course, the most likely winners are Castroneves and Dixon.
I have 4pts win on Dixon at 15/2... he is now approx 7/2. He is on pole and should be 2/1 chance. I have now placed a cover bet on Castroneves (1pt, 11/2 - should be a 5/2 chance) and Andretti (0.5pts, 12/1).
I have Hornish for the championship, but have a strong feeeling he probably needs to finish within 4-5 places of Castroneves (which could be tricky).
N.B. Hornish and Wheldon are terrible prices at the availible odds.
Post Race Update: I wish Betfair traded on this race....Dixon was 0.5 s quicker than the rest of the field and at 2/3 distance, he was trading at 1/8 at Stan James (I'd have laid at 1.2). A problematic pitstop under yellow put him far back in the field.
At least my cover bet on Andretti returned my stakes. In addition, in most scenarios, Hornish now just need to beat Castroneves for my 10 pt title bet on Hornish to come in... I'd make Hornish a 4/6 shot now (I'm on a 9/2)
I have 4pts win on Dixon at 15/2... he is now approx 7/2. He is on pole and should be 2/1 chance. I have now placed a cover bet on Castroneves (1pt, 11/2 - should be a 5/2 chance) and Andretti (0.5pts, 12/1).
I have Hornish for the championship, but have a strong feeeling he probably needs to finish within 4-5 places of Castroneves (which could be tricky).
N.B. Hornish and Wheldon are terrible prices at the availible odds.
Post Race Update: I wish Betfair traded on this race....Dixon was 0.5 s quicker than the rest of the field and at 2/3 distance, he was trading at 1/8 at Stan James (I'd have laid at 1.2). A problematic pitstop under yellow put him far back in the field.
At least my cover bet on Andretti returned my stakes. In addition, in most scenarios, Hornish now just need to beat Castroneves for my 10 pt title bet on Hornish to come in... I'd make Hornish a 4/6 shot now (I'm on a 9/2)
Arsenal to win Premiership - 4pts 15/1 Betfair.
Arsenal have been unlucky in their first 2 games. The Betfair market has totally overreacted (as it always does with teams who have a bad start) and pushed Arsenal out from 9/1 to 15/1. It is a 38 game season!
I'm not convinced that Arsenal will win the championship, but Id be very surprised if the market didn't move in my favour, giving opportunities to layoff with a guaranteed profit.
I'm not convinced that Arsenal will win the championship, but Id be very surprised if the market didn't move in my favour, giving opportunities to layoff with a guaranteed profit.
Lock in of 50 pts. profit on Davis Love III
When Dvais Love when 3 pst clear last night (with 1.5 rounds to go), and went approx. even money I decided to layoff my 2pt bet @ 60/1.
Davis Love III them promtly hit 3 bogies (and no birdies) for the rest of the 3rd round. He is now out to 10/1.... (lowest price matched even money!)
ALtough I won the same money last week on the cricket, I am much prouder with this effort.
Saturday, August 26, 2006
Update after 8 months: 23.9 % profit
Position after 8 months
Points staked on settled bets = 534
Points returned on settled bets= 662
Profit on settled bets = 23.9 %
Points staked on unsettled bets = 56.5
Still unhappy that Romero manged to fisnsh 8th in the Open when a top 7 finish would have given me a 100/1 payout. (he was 3rd with 1/2 round to go), but England winning was an unexpectd bonus in the Test cricket.
Canavoro not winning player of the World Cup tournament at 6-1 was also a sickener - if the poll hadbeen made at the end of the match he woudl have been a certainty rather than losing by 1%.
Dan Clarke (mechnaical problems) when a close 2nd (E.W 50-1) was also diasappointing.
Antepost wise, things are looking great with the following bets looking in with good chanes of a payout
- Crawley - Top batsman (Select 12) - 12-1 (4pts) - probably am approx. 1-2 chance now
- Ferrari - Top F1 Constructor - 6-1 (10pts) - 1-2 chance now
- Hornish - Indy Racing winner - 9-2 (10pts) - probably an even money chance now... has been as short as 1-8 :( until a DNF 2 races ago with a meachnical problem. Castroneves is a big danger.
Come on Davis Love III this weekend!
Points staked on settled bets = 534
Points returned on settled bets= 662
Profit on settled bets = 23.9 %
Points staked on unsettled bets = 56.5
Still unhappy that Romero manged to fisnsh 8th in the Open when a top 7 finish would have given me a 100/1 payout. (he was 3rd with 1/2 round to go), but England winning was an unexpectd bonus in the Test cricket.
Canavoro not winning player of the World Cup tournament at 6-1 was also a sickener - if the poll hadbeen made at the end of the match he woudl have been a certainty rather than losing by 1%.
Dan Clarke (mechnaical problems) when a close 2nd (E.W 50-1) was also diasappointing.
Antepost wise, things are looking great with the following bets looking in with good chanes of a payout
- Crawley - Top batsman (Select 12) - 12-1 (4pts) - probably am approx. 1-2 chance now
- Ferrari - Top F1 Constructor - 6-1 (10pts) - 1-2 chance now
- Hornish - Indy Racing winner - 9-2 (10pts) - probably an even money chance now... has been as short as 1-8 :( until a DNF 2 races ago with a meachnical problem. Castroneves is a big danger.
Come on Davis Love III this weekend!
Andy Murray - US Open - 2 pst win - 50-1 Betfair
I am suprised to see Andy Murray is availible at 50-1 ofor the US OPen. If first 2 rounds are straight forward which will put him into a last 16 clash with (potentially) Gonzalez.
A new coach could enable Murray to make that final step up....
... If I was betting to smaller stakes, I'd back at Boylesports.com who are refunding your stake if your player goes out to the 2 favs. in the Mens/Womens tournaments. I'm tempted to back their 1st round opponents (as this is a 'bet to nothing'), however I don't like the phrase 'T & C's apply'.. anyone wan't to contact Boylesports for an answer?
A new coach could enable Murray to make that final step up....
... If I was betting to smaller stakes, I'd back at Boylesports.com who are refunding your stake if your player goes out to the 2 favs. in the Mens/Womens tournaments. I'm tempted to back their 1st round opponents (as this is a 'bet to nothing'), however I don't like the phrase 'T & C's apply'.. anyone wan't to contact Boylesports for an answer?
Indy Racing - 4pts Win - Scott Dixon - Infineon Raceway
Scott Dixon was a great price at 15-2 for the race this weekend - he should have been a approx 5-2 chance. I've ahd 4pst win. This is a 'Road Race' whch therefore favours Castroneves and Dixon.
Bet365 priced this race up as a conventional Oval race, I major mistake. Once the books re-open tomorrow (Sunday) morning (after final qualifying), I suspect you will still be able to get approx. 5-1 on Dixon, whih would still be a good price.
I would stay away form Hornish and Wheldon at short prices as they are unsuited by these types of tracks. I'd be suprised if either of tehse 2 favourites win.
Bet365 priced this race up as a conventional Oval race, I major mistake. Once the books re-open tomorrow (Sunday) morning (after final qualifying), I suspect you will still be able to get approx. 5-1 on Dixon, whih would still be a good price.
I would stay away form Hornish and Wheldon at short prices as they are unsuited by these types of tracks. I'd be suprised if either of tehse 2 favourites win.
Golf Trading Update - WGC Bridgestone - 2pts win Davis Love - 60/1 Betfair
In running in the 2nd round last night, I placed a 2pot win bet on Davis Love at 60/1. He is now approx 14/1.
Thiungs coudl have been a lot better if DAvis Love has sunk one of the 2 puts on wither 17 or 18 or Tiger had not had such a miraculous bogey on 18 via a free drop.
I can;t see Davis Love winning, but a good round today coudl mean that I coudl layoff at 2-1.... more lickly Tgetr if will go 5 clear and I will have done my money again!
Thiungs coudl have been a lot better if DAvis Love has sunk one of the 2 puts on wither 17 or 18 or Tiger had not had such a miraculous bogey on 18 via a free drop.
I can;t see Davis Love winning, but a good round today coudl mean that I coudl layoff at 2-1.... more lickly Tgetr if will go 5 clear and I will have done my money again!
Golf Trading Update - Sudnay 20th August - PGA
I maanged to lose 2 pst backing David Toms at 33-1 for PGA. I need to learn to stoip backing against Tiger Woods in Majors....
Finally a bit of luck! Engalnd to beat Pakistan 2pts 25-1
Just before tea last Sunday, I had 2pts on Betfair at 25-1 on an England victory. I'd like to say this was a piece of inspired gambling, where I'd realised the possibility that the match might be voided.
In reality, it was just me thinking that the Engladn win shoudl be an approx. 12/1 -14/1 chance. (They coudl have set Pakistan a total of approx 150-175 at 12 midday the next day).
The best bet woull have been 12-1 on England as the Pakistan players stayed in the dressing room... wasn't alive enough to this market change. Anyhow, made for an interesting Sunday evening as rumours flew around....
Racing Update - Newbury - 19/08/06
I had 3 bets (1pt each) at Newbury last weekend, fortunately 1 winner @ 20-1 (Jamison Gold, 2.10 Newbury). This was a great price has he had been badly drawn at Acost previously and, when the rain came down, had the ground he needed.
Apologies for the laste posting of the result, work has been very busy...
Apologies for the laste posting of the result, work has been very busy...
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Newcastle v Ventspils - Ventspils to win (28-1) Betfair.
28-1 is simply to big on ... I'm having 1 pt on a shock outcome... never underestimate the capacity for Newcastle to self destruct.
Saturday, August 19, 2006
Newbury 3.10 - 33-1 - 2pts Win - Self Defense
I believe Self Defense is overpriced at 33-1 in this 5 runner race... the horse is only slightly below the standard of the other 4 horses in the race. With soft ground and a (potentially) tactical race, I'm having 2pts win.
Watford to make flying start in August.
Paddypower are outsanding in the number of markets they have on the Premiership.
I have already had 4pts on Kitson (Reading) at 100-1 to be the first Premiership goalscorer to 10 goals (now a 50-1 chance.)
They have now opened up prices on leading Premiership Goalscorer and Team at the end of August.
Leading Premierhip Team at End of August.
I think they have priced these up wrong as they have not factored in that Liverpool and Arsenal have had one of their games cancelled (due to Champions League) and therefore 4 premiership teams will only play 2 rather than 3 games. This makes these 4 teams very unlikely to be leading the Premiership at the end of August.
I thik you shoudl try to back a team who play 2 /3 of there games at home.
A very good case can be made for Tottenham (8-1) who are the only side not to play one of the 'Big 4'. However, at odds of 125-1 I 'm backing Watford (2 pts). Their games are
Everton v Watford
Watford v West Ham
Watford v Man Utd
If they win there first 2 games, there will be opportunities for laying off.
Top Premiership Goalscorer at End of August
This may be won (or joint won) with as few as 2 goals. For this reason I'm backing Marlon King (Watford) E/W at 50-1 (2pts E/W).
I have already had 4pts on Kitson (Reading) at 100-1 to be the first Premiership goalscorer to 10 goals (now a 50-1 chance.)
They have now opened up prices on leading Premiership Goalscorer and Team at the end of August.
Leading Premierhip Team at End of August.
I think they have priced these up wrong as they have not factored in that Liverpool and Arsenal have had one of their games cancelled (due to Champions League) and therefore 4 premiership teams will only play 2 rather than 3 games. This makes these 4 teams very unlikely to be leading the Premiership at the end of August.
I thik you shoudl try to back a team who play 2 /3 of there games at home.
A very good case can be made for Tottenham (8-1) who are the only side not to play one of the 'Big 4'. However, at odds of 125-1 I 'm backing Watford (2 pts). Their games are
Everton v Watford
Watford v West Ham
Watford v Man Utd
If they win there first 2 games, there will be opportunities for laying off.
Top Premiership Goalscorer at End of August
This may be won (or joint won) with as few as 2 goals. For this reason I'm backing Marlon King (Watford) E/W at 50-1 (2pts E/W).
3.30 Ripon - Josh 1pt win 20-1 Corals
I am fairly confident that the winner of thsi race will come from a high draw. Josh has dropped signficantly in teh handicap and can poick up this prize... I woudl have had more than 1pt, but this was the max bet that Coirals woudl allow at there prices from 10-10.15 a.m.
He is suited by course, distance and the ground andI think will probably start around a 10-1 chance. I'm also considering a combination bet on high drawn horses....
He is suited by course, distance and the ground andI think will probably start around a 10-1 chance. I'm also considering a combination bet on high drawn horses....
Tennis - Andy Murray to win US Open - 40-1 - 0.5 pts - betandwin.com
betandwin.com are going a standout 40-1 on Andyt Murray to win the US Open. With a new trainer, this outstanding (progressive) prospect has a real chance of landing this title.
A general 16-1/20-1 chance, I've had 1/2 pt @ 40-1 at betandwin.com. I don't expect it to last long...(P.S. I tried to have more, but this was their max. bet :( )
A general 16-1/20-1 chance, I've had 1/2 pt @ 40-1 at betandwin.com. I don't expect it to last long...(P.S. I tried to have more, but this was their max. bet :( )
Sunday, August 13, 2006
Snooker - Northern Island Trophy - 1pt Fu 66-1, 1pt Selby 50-1
I belive by far the easiest draw is the first quarter. The favoured players in this draw are Dott and Ebdon, but I don't fancy either of this players.
Dott is likley to underform under the pressure of being World Champion and Ebdon always reserves his best for the World Chamiopnship.
For this reason, I am backing Fu and Selby from this 1/4 to win outright. I think that is more than likley that one of these guys will make the semi-finals.
Fu has become revitalised after moving back to Terry Griifiths as a coach. He has since reached the World Semi Finals when he narrowly lost 17-16 to Ebdon.
Selby knocked out Higgin in the World Championship before losing to an inspired Mark Williams - this is great form.
Both are more than fair outright prices at 50/1 and 66/1.
Dott is likley to underform under the pressure of being World Champion and Ebdon always reserves his best for the World Chamiopnship.
For this reason, I am backing Fu and Selby from this 1/4 to win outright. I think that is more than likley that one of these guys will make the semi-finals.
Fu has become revitalised after moving back to Terry Griifiths as a coach. He has since reached the World Semi Finals when he narrowly lost 17-16 to Ebdon.
Selby knocked out Higgin in the World Championship before losing to an inspired Mark Williams - this is great form.
Both are more than fair outright prices at 50/1 and 66/1.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
FK Ventspils v Newcastle - 1st Goalscorer - 40/1 Bet365 - 1pt
I think Newcastle are quite weak at the back... so I'm having 1pt on the FK Ventspils defender Ndeki to open the scoring at 40-1 with Bet365. He has a strong goals/games ration for a central defender.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
Alonso 1st Goalscorer - 20-1 Corals. Liverrpool v Maccabi Haifa - 2pts
The exact tem formation is unclear at present, however Alonso is likely to make the starting lineup. Against a wek opposition, irrespective of the tactical makeup, 20-1 is a great price. I'm having 2pts on this outcome.
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Kitson (Reading) - 1st Premiership player to 10 goals - PaddyPowe - 100-1
I believe Coppell will continue with his attacking style of football at REading. If this is the case, Kitson (penalty taker) has a chance of being teh fist to 10 goals.
The lead attacker for promoted clubs have a reasonable record in the Premiership. It is difficult to see him being ther at the end of the season, but could ht 10 after approx 20 games - he has an execlllent goals/games record in the Championship last year.
The lead attacker for promoted clubs have a reasonable record in the Premiership. It is difficult to see him being ther at the end of the season, but could ht 10 after approx 20 games - he has an execlllent goals/games record in the Championship last year.
4pst Win - Michael Schumacher - 100-1 - Quickest Official time.
I placed this bet in running during qualifying... however, I've paid the price of a losing bet by not reading the rules carefully enough. The fastest offical time included the 2s penalty. Ah well, a lesson learnt.
Saturday, August 05, 2006
Horse Racing - Goodwood (Saturday)/Newbury (Sunday)
Nassau Stakes
Ouija Board is a worthry favourite. However, with a small field, the race may not be run to suit and is in, my view, too short at I'm having 2pts on Race for the Stars (16-1) to spring a surpise. He is well respected by Keiron Fallon, and has been working well. Stepping up in trip in 1m 2f, he is taken to make amends for is unlucky run in the .
Stewards Cup
I like the chances of 'Tax Free' and 'Bentong', but I'm palcing 1pt on 9-y-o Continent (50-1) from the sprint specialist Dandy Nicholls. He will need to return to his previous form to win this.... a little bit of rain would help!
Update : an afternoon at Newbury leaves me 3 pts down... just keeping my records update.
Ouija Board is a worthry favourite. However, with a small field, the race may not be run to suit and is in, my view, too short at I'm having 2pts on Race for the Stars (16-1) to spring a surpise. He is well respected by Keiron Fallon, and has been working well. Stepping up in trip in 1m 2f, he is taken to make amends for is unlucky run in the .
Stewards Cup
I like the chances of 'Tax Free' and 'Bentong', but I'm palcing 1pt on 9-y-o Continent (50-1) from the sprint specialist Dandy Nicholls. He will need to return to his previous form to win this.... a little bit of rain would help!
Update : an afternoon at Newbury leaves me 3 pts down... just keeping my records update.
Big Brother Trading - Update
I think there is a huge amount of uncertainty now.
- Who will the pucblic vote in to the House Next Door?
- Who will the main flatmates choose to let in to the main house? Do they nknow whoever they bring back in can still win it? What will influence their decisions? Who they liked? WHo they thnk will challenge then?
- ....and then they got to bet Pete!
C4 look like thaey want Nikki back, but they way they have setup teh 2 sets of voting will mean they can't guarantee this.
I've now layed off at approx 12/1 on Nicky for 14 points (I think that is a very poor price to back). With the large amount of uncertainty, I've spread these points on the following:
Mikey - 6 points (250/1)
Leah - 1 point (500/1)
Grace - 1 point (400/1)
In summary, I''m now level on all outcomes other than Mikey, Nikki, Leah, Grace and 'Any Other' - up significanly on all of these....
- Who will the pucblic vote in to the House Next Door?
- Who will the main flatmates choose to let in to the main house? Do they nknow whoever they bring back in can still win it? What will influence their decisions? Who they liked? WHo they thnk will challenge then?
- ....and then they got to bet Pete!
C4 look like thaey want Nikki back, but they way they have setup teh 2 sets of voting will mean they can't guarantee this.
I've now layed off at approx 12/1 on Nicky for 14 points (I think that is a very poor price to back). With the large amount of uncertainty, I've spread these points on the following:
Mikey - 6 points (250/1)
Leah - 1 point (500/1)
Grace - 1 point (400/1)
In summary, I''m now level on all outcomes other than Mikey, Nikki, Leah, Grace and 'Any Other' - up significanly on all of these....
Friday, August 04, 2006
Nikki - 2pts Win - Big Brother - 150/1 (Betfair)
Thre is a strong rumour that Nikki will be sent back in the Big Brother house tonight. I'm not sure whether she will be allowed to win (in the one previous example the re-entrant wasn't) but 150/1 gives me a good trading opportunity.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Geordieland - 4pts Win - Tote Ebor -16-1
I was very impressed with Geordieland's run in the Goodwood Cup today. Yates was a star but 2nd placed Geordieland was welll clear of the 3rd placed horse. A likely starter in the Tote Ebor (although not certain) he will run off a favourable rating.
If he makes the day, I suspect that he will turn up as a 5-1/6-1 chance.... and I thnk he will win it.
If he makes the day, I suspect that he will turn up as a 5-1/6-1 chance.... and I thnk he will win it.
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