Sunday, March 14, 2010

Bahrain Gran Prix - Lay Vettel at 1-2 for Podium Finisl

In the final qualifying session, the leading drivers opted for super soft Bridgestone tyres to optimize their grid position. This could well compromise their race performance as the preference for the race would be to run with these tyres when you have lightetst fuel at the end of the race (no refuelling allowed this year).

The Red Bull is especially hard on it's tyres and it could suffer particularly badly in this area during the race. With Ferrari have a stronger race pace, Vettel looks to be a very shaky odds on chance for a podium finish. I'm laying him at 1-2.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Bahrain Grand Prix Qualifying - Sauber to spring a suprise

Sauber have looked competitive in testing, not far off the 'big four' teams of Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren. If they opt to go with soft compound tyes in qualifying they have a very real chance of springing a suprise. I've had 2pts at 66/1 on each of the Sauber drivers to qualify in P1.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Reduced voter turnout in GE 2010 (Part 2)

Those who read my blog regularly will know I'm convinced that nationally we will have a low turnout. I backed this earlier this year by placing a bet on a turnout of 55% to 60% turnout at 7/1 (20 pts).

Since then Polling eveidence from COMRES stated that

- 44 per cent said they were "absolutely certain" to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were "certain not to vote", compared with 11 per cent five years ago indicating a low turnout.

- When posed with the statement "I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close", 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. This would indicate a higher turnout.

I believe this polling evidence has supported my analysis (I think the first piece of evidence above outweighs the second) and the bookies agree. They have now moved 55-60% into 5/1. I've decided to have an additional bet at 12-1 (12 pts) on under 55% at Ladbrokes - I'd hate to be more right than I expected and lose

For another view on the turnout, Mike Smithson has written a piece for - he disagrees with me, but it is worth reading for a contrary view to mine.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Will Mourinho storm on (and off)....?

After the Mouurinho press conference, I've a 'gut' feeling that Mourinho may decide to make a spectacle of himself by not shaking hands with Ancelloti. I'm backing this 'hunch' with bets on the following markets at William Hill:

What Will Mourinho Do First Against Chelsea? Leave pitch after match - 2pts @ 25/1
Mourinho & Ancelotti to fail to shake hands after either leg? No, 2pts @ 16/1

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Arsenal for Premership - lay back original stake for 'all green position'

I still think Arsenal are reasonable value in the Prem 2009/2010 market, but I've decided to take a prudent approach to this market (i.e. less risky) and lay back my origial stake to leave me with an 'all green' position.

Monday, February 01, 2010

Another account gets limited.....Skybet... read this email exchange (from the bottom up!)

Hi Chris
Thanks for your email.I have spoken to our traders and they have decided to up your scale factor to 5%, this is the highest they are willing to increase this to.
Kind Regards,

Dear Skybet,
Thank you for your email.I was previously restricted to 1% of stakes of other customers when placing bets online. Can you confirm if this restriction has now been fully removed i.e if I can place the same size stakes as other customers online? Thanks.
Chris Trinder

Hi Chris
Thanks for your email.Yes you should be able to get the same stakes online as you previously have been able to get via the phone.
Kind Regards,

Dear Skybet
Thank you for your reply. Can you confirm if I will be able to get the same stake sizes online as I have been previously able to get by phones. In the past I have been restricted online to 1% of the stakes other customers are able to place.
Chris Trinder

Hi Chris
Thanks for your reply.You are among a group of customer who are less profitable to the company, therefore our trading team have taken the decision to only accept online business from you.I apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Dear Skybet,
Can you explain why this decision to not allow me to bet my telephone has been taken? If this for all customers or just myself?
Chris Trinder

Dear Mr Trinder,
We have made some changes to our service. With regret we have taken the business decision to stop your access to our telebet service. As such, from today your account has been set up to accept online bets only, which means that if you call our call centre you will be directed to either, or our interactive TV service to place your bets. You will only be able to place whatever the system indicates is the maximum stake for your chosen selection.

You can log on to the services with your existing user ID and a PIN. If you don?t already have a PIN or need a reminder, please contact a member of our Customer Care team on 08000 725181.

F1 Pre-season - Day 1 Testing & Pre season bets

In the first day of testing today Massa in the Ferrari topped the timing chances, but Schumacher was competitive in the Mercedes, outperforming his team-mate Rosberg (albeit in different conditions). I've taken a look at the outright markets for the F1 Championship, and I think are taking a chance on the some of the drivers. These are the ones who they perceive to be the 'weaker' drivers in the lineups. I think the price difference between the 'stronger' and 'weaker' drivers is too large (and the UK bookmakers agree). I've added bets (max. allowed) on these drivers to my bet on Michael Schumacher at 7/1 for 5+ race wins.

Have the markets over-reacted to Arsenal's weekend loss?

I always look for market over-reactions to a loss (or succession of losses). Try as a I might, I can't understand why the bookies have pushed out Arsenal from 9/2 to 12/1 after their loss today.

I still think Chelsea will win the Championship, but I think that it is much more likely that Arsenal will shorten rather than lengthen from the current price of 12/1. I don't think a team mid way through the season who lose to one of their two rivals should lengthen this much.

If the market adjusts to what I believe to be the correct price now (or some time in the future) I'll close out the position.

Murray to beat Federer in a Grand Slam Final 2010 - 16/1 - Totesport - 2.5pts

Totesport have opened a market on whether Murray will beat Federer in a Grand Slam Final in 2010. By finishing 2nd in the Australian Open, I think he is likley to be 2nd/3rd seeding in the Grand SLams events (he is now up to 3rd in the ATP rankings). This will mena that he is likley to be dranw to meeet Federer in the final.

Murray is 13/8 to win a Grand SLam eevent (realistically Wimbledon or teh US Open). I can see a Federer/Murray final in either Wimbledon and/or the US Open - they are 1st/2nd favs for both events. If this happens, the 16/1 on Murray beating Federer to win a Grand Slam eevent in 2010 will look big. I've had 2.5 pts (max. allowed) at 16/1.

Friday, January 29, 2010

UK General Election Turnout - 55-60% - 7-1 - 20pts

Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have a market on the % voter turnout in the next UK General Election. They have similar prices, but I think the conventional wisdom that the % will increase is wrong.

The problem is that those interested in politics have an understandably different opinion as to how likely people are to vote - they are not a good sample, and it is difficult for them to think what less interested people will do! They (rightly) see this is a critical election. They think that there will be an increased Conservative turnout which will increase the % voting. I think this will be (at least) balanced by the Labour voter 'no shows' with Labour voter dissatisfaction with Gordon Brown. In addition, the turnout will be deflated by the expenses scandal as a general negative for all politicians.

I think the most likely guide to whether a person will vote is if they have voted before (which show, over the past decades, a general decline). Looking at the % figures from the last five elections and taking all the above factors into account, I think we will have a turnout of 55-60%. I've had 20 pts (my max. stake) at 7-1 on this.