European Chmpionship - Darts - James Wade 5pts E/W

James Wade is in the semi finals whre he plays Steve Beaton (Wade 1-3, Beaton 2-1). Paddy Power are very generously offering him with E/W betting (1/3) 1,2 at 9/2 for ouright betting. If you think the prices are correct (which I do), the E/W shape/nature of the market makes this a great bet. I've had a (max allowed) 5 pts E/W

Update: Perhaps it would have made more sense to back BOTH semi-finalists in the opposite half from Phil Taylor.

2nd Update: All bets (win/place) voided by Paddy Power.

Strictly Come Dancing - Ricky Groves to win Week 6 - 66/1 - 1pt

I am starting to think that Ricky Groves has a chance of winning SCD (ouright). He is dancing the American Smooth this week. The dances are as follows:

Amercian Smooth - Ali, Chris, Nat, RickyG, RickyW, Zoe
Samba - Craig, Jade, Jo, Laila, Tuffers

Those who will be dancing the Amercian Smooth will have a significant advantage as this is typically highly scored. Ricky W and Ali with provide stiff competition but if Ricky G ditches the 'cheeky chappy' routine, I think the judges will reward him well. Apparently rehearsels are going well for Ricky Groves - I can see a score in the thirties. The downside is that Ricky G is more suited by Latin dances, but you can't have everything in your favour...

I tried to have 2pts, but have had to get a total of 1pts across several bookies at 66/1.

The first of many I fear.....

to "chris.trinder@googlemail.com"
date Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 5:23 PM
subject Account Closure
mailed-by galacoral.com

Dear Mr Trinder

I am writing to advise you that your account with Coral.co.uk has been closed. As of now, no further bets can be accepted and and any recorded in error will be decarled void, win or lose. This decision has been taken purely for commercial reasons.

In the event of you placing a bet indirectly with Coral.co.uk in the future, we will reserve the right to void your bet.

Any funds currently in your balance have now been sent back to your registered card. Any outstanding Ante Post bets will be settled upon their maturity and any subsequent funds won will be sent back to your registered card.

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Coral Customer Care Supervisor

Brazil GP F1 - Rosberg 8pts win (25-1), 1pt Place

There is a raesonable likelihood of rain this afternoon at the Brazil GP. If the race is severely affected by rain, Rosberg has an excellent chance to win the race. He showed in early practice yesterday that his car is optimized for wet conditions. I've had 8 pts win at a (generous) 25/1. I've also had a small place bet (1pt) to cover my win stake, but I think he his most likely to either win or come nowhere. I'd make him a 8/1 chance to win. Due to restrictions, I've had to palce this bet across several bookmakers.

Portugal Masters - Lima - 1pt E/W 150/1

Lima has played consistently well on the Challenge Tour thsi year (finished second on the tour)and could spring a surprise in the Portugal Masters. He has an excellent record in Portugal in recent seasons which would mean I would make him an approx 66/1 chance of winning this event.

I tried to have 2pts E/W but was restricted to 1 pt E/W.

Argentina v Peru - Peru to win - 33/1 - 2pts

As per my post below, although I am fairly convinced Argentina will win tonight, there come a point when a price can simply to big. This is the case with Peru tonight - the 33/1 is too big - I'd make it a 16/1 chance (at most). It is just possible that Maradona will contrive to lose this game via a combination of poor tactics, (unlucky) finishing and weak defending.

Argentina v Peru - FGS (50-1) /AGS (16-1) - Varga - Extrabet

Argentina legend Maradona has proved to be an inept maanger - is is ludicrous that Argentina will (probably) only just qualify for the 2010 World Cup. Tonight they play Peru and although they should win the game, there is a good chance they will conceed a goal to Peru. This may well come from talented attacking midfileder Varga.

He is way overpriced at Bet365 and Extrabet for first golascsorer (50-1) / anytime goalscorer (14-1). I missed the 80-1/20-1 - most other bookies go much shorter. I've had 2pt on each.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Manuel_Vargas

Presidents Cup - Stewart Cink - Top US - 14/1 Stan James - 4pts

Stewart Cink has the strongest President's Cup record on the US team. He also has an excellent match play record. He has been in fair form recently and I think he has a great chance of being top US points scorer. At 14/1 he is great value - I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

I think the other (possible) vale bet is Sean O'Hair, but I'm sticking to a single bet at present.