Sunday, April 30, 2006

Position after 18 Weeks

After 18 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 287
Points returned on settled bets= 440
Profit on settled bets = 53.3 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 34

Steve McClaren - another trade! (Lock in 16pts profit).

At the risk of boring everyone with this, I've just laid Steve MClaren at 1.92 (24pts staked) to lock in a (further) profit of 16pts.

I thinl they final opportunity for trading on this market will be if there is a false rumoumour regarding an announcement having been made. I;m sure an announcemnet WILL be made this week... the FA can't let this go on much longer!

Saturday, April 29, 2006

3.20 Sandown - Betfred Gold Cup - 2pts win Risk Accessor (Betfair)

Risk Accessor is an unreliable horse but has the ability to win a rac e like this. After diving out of the course the last time he was at Sandown, he had 2 repectable runs at Chelteham and Aintree. He is a short as 12-1 at Stan James (25-1 Betfred), but I'm taking a chance at 33-1 on win only at Betfair.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - New trading opportunities.

I reckon there may be more twists and turns in the next England Manager market. Due to my previous trades, I've backed 6pts on Steve Mclaren @ 7.6.

I think there may well be an opportunity to lay Scolri at 1.3.... it is possible that, for whatver reason, the FA can't come to an agreement with him (e.g. if they wish to mnake an immediate announcement (.e before the World Cup) which the Portguses FA won't allow). In this case there will be an opportunity for further trading!

Sunday, April 23, 2006

5pts win Alonso - San Marino Grand Prix - 4-1 Betfair

Although Alonso is back in 5th on the grid, he is the class of the field this year. Provided he is not held up too much by the Hondas (and Massa), he is likely to overhall even money favourite Michael Schumacher.

4-1 is a great price, I'm having 5pts win.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Luis Garcia - 1st Goal Scorer - 14-1 Liverpool v Chelsea- 2pts

Both Gerrard and Garcia have good goals/matches ratios. Although Gerrard is the proverbial 'big game' player, I've a slight preference for Garcia due to the fact he will probbaly play in a more forward role today than usual.

The 14-1 at William Hill and Victor Chancdler is more than fair... I'm having 2pts on 1st goalscorer.

Sunderland (8-1) to beat Portsmouth - 2pts win.

Portsmouth are playing much better recently, and are the 'obvious' choice to win this game. They are in despearate need of the points, unlike Sunderland who have nothing to play for.

However, everything in betting depends on value... and, at as short of 1-3, they are no bet. Instead, I'm siding with Sunderland at the generally availible 8-1 to pull off a shock win.

Monday, April 17, 2006

Jon Wong - 1st Elimination - 9-1 - Paddy Power Irish (Poker) Open

Vincent Mellin an Ian Woodley have both too many cjhips and to much experience to go out early. Therefore the only other value options are Brendan Ruane, Conor Smth, Jon Wong and Paul Daly

Paul Daly is rightly favourite for first to be eliminated. However, at 1-7 he is too short. To stay in Paul Daly will nee top double up twice, but he will have planned the correct time to move all his chips in.

Brendan Ruane has signficantly more chips than Conor Smith, so he is avoided. It therefore comes down to Conor Smith and Jon Wong, with marginal preference for Jon Wong as, in a head up with Conor Smith, Jon will be out if he loses (which wouldn't be the case the other way around).

I can see Conor and Jon playing perhaps too patiently waiting for Paul Daly to be eliminated.

A much better price is 9-1 on Jon Wong to be eliminated first.

Crawley - Top Run Scorer - 2006 - County Championship - Select 9 - 4pts win

Ladbrokes have formed a market with a selecetd 9 County Championship Players.

These are Hussey (Notts), Knight (Warwicks), Smith (Middlesex), Lehman (Yorks.), Loye (Lancs), van Jaasveld (Kent), Adams (Sussex), Benkenstein (Durham) and Crawley (Hants).

Crawley scored the highest no. of runs last year (although it was relatively close) so I would make him an apprxoimately 6-1 chance. For some reason Ladbrokes make him the 12-1 outsider!.... I'm having 4pts win @ 12-1 (another option was E/W 1/4 1.2.3, which is very fair).

Irish Grand National - 1pt win Supreme Developer - 40-1

The Irish Grand National is a very open race with many horses in with a chance. I think the favourite should be taken on. I've backed Ferdy Murphy's Supreme Developer @ 40-1, but you can make a case for several others.

First Goalscorer - Chelsea v Everton - Leon Osman - 25-1 (BlueSq) - 1pt

Leon Osman is likely to play in a (fairly) forward position today. He has netted 3 goals in the past 5 games. Although Chelsea are heavy favourites, this is more than compensated by the 25-1 availible on Lean Osman.

I'm not having much luck on first goal scorer bets at the moment, hopely this will change today!

Snooker , World Chamiponship - additional bets (Market Mistakes)

Interwetten have not updated their prices on the Snooker World Chamionship, even though some of the fisrt round matches are complete. I'm therfore tacking advantage of this by adding the following bets to my portfolio:

4 pts win Shuan Murphy @ 9-1 (currently 5-1 elsewhere)... from my previous post, I'm not a massive fan of his, but 9-1 is too good to miss.

0.5 pt win Mark Williams @ 20-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere)

I am also tempted to add Ken Doherty @ 25-1 (currently 10-1 elsewhere) , but I already have 4pts on him at 28-1 at William Hill via the 'Rest of the World' market.

Cricket - Divison One - Nottinghamshire - 4pts win - 5-1

Nottinghamshire are (very solid) joint favourites at a generally available 5-1 for Division One. They where champions last year (from Hants, Sussex), and I can see no reason why the same team should not go close again.

Position after 16 weeks.

After 16 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 259
Points returned on settled bets= 401
Profit on settled bets = 54.8 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 39

Steve Mclaren - Next England Manager - Close Position - Lay @ 1.65

Im now closing my position on next England Manger (Steve Mclaren). In my post on 12/02 /2006 , I staked 2pts at 33/1. I'm now laying this back at 1.65 making a locked in profit of 40pts.

I've been caught on previous Next Manger markets in the past, so I am glad to be able to close out my position!

Saturday, April 15, 2006

First Goalscorer - Bolton v Chelsea - William Gallas - 33/1 - 1pt

William Gallas has scored 4 goals this season and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 33-1 for 1st goal scorere ... I'm have 1pt win.

4pts - 28-1 - William Hill - "Rest of The World" Winner of Snooker World Championship

O'Sullivan is a weak favourite for this tournament. The most solid bet is John Higgins who has clearly the strongest form this season. However, he has a tough draw with O'Sullivan and Williams in his quarter (in the ).

The of the draw is weaker. Murphy has a easy draw, but returning first time champions have a poor record. Ebdon has a strong World Championship form, but his recent form is weak. The other quarter has 3 potential champions in Doherty, Hawkins and Stevens. I'm most keen on Doherty as he has both current form and World Championship form. The latter is usually required, the former is a benefit.

I think William Hill have made a mistake on their price for 'Rest of the World' Champion. The term 'British Isles' has several meanings. William Hill have confirmed with me that their interpretation of Btitish Isles does NOT include Republic of Ireland. Therefore, when backing 'Rest of the World' you DO get Republic of Island players.

I will therefore have running for me (@28-1)


(and any others I've missed!).

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Verizon Classic - Pat Perez - 80-1 - Ladbrokes - 1pt E/W

Although most of the favoured golfers in this event has reasonable chances (Cink, Olazabal and Davis Love), I'm siding with Pat Perez. He recent performance at the TPC was impressive and last year he made a solid appearance in this event.

Non particpants from the Masters haave a poor record .... the only downside.

Update : Bet365 incorretly stated to me on Thusrday evening that I would get refunded. However, within their rules, as Pat Perez had started the tournament), this bet should have been setteld as a loser. For this Blog, I'm going to mark it as a loser (as if I had no refund).

However, I woud like to give a note of thanks to Bet365 for honouring their mistake. I have a feeling that I may have an issue with William Hill coming up.......

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Man Utd v Arsenal - Senderos first/last goalscorer - 66/1

Senderos has scored 2 goals from 16 league appearances and as such is overpriced at 66-1 for first/last goalscorer. I'm having 0.5 pts on each.

Saturday, April 08, 2006

Grand National - Haut De Gamme 28-1 - 1pts win

I've already placed 4pts at 13-2 on a JP McManus winner 2 months ago. I'm adding that today with 1pt win on Haut De Gamme.

I think there are problay 5-6 potentails winners, with Haut de GAmme the longest price. I;m steering clear of anything > 28-1.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Basle Cente backs to cause havoc. 0.5 pts first goalscorer Majstorovic, Smijanic

Majstorovic and Smijanic have both execlllent goals/games ratios for centrebacks. For this reason, i;m having 0.5 pts on each of them for 1st goalscorer.

0.5 pts Majstorovic 50-1 Ladbrokes
0.5 pts Smijanic 66-1 Bet365

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

US Masters Portfolio

My Masters bets are the following

Mickleson - 3pts win 9-1 (are they the new
Goosen - 3pts win 12-1
Howell - 1/2 pt win 66-1 (they they the old
Olazabel - 1/3 pt win 80-1
Weir - 1/3 pt win 80-1

Approx 7 pts staked in total.... any winner returns wins 28pts i.e. I have an approx 4-1 chance on these 5 runners. I may do some trading during the Masters as well.....

McManus 25-1 E/W 1pts Will Hill.

McManus has scored 5 goals since 1st Jan 06. I've placed 1pt E/W at WillHill @ 25/1 - they have favourable E/W terms of 1/2 1,2,3.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Cris - 50/1 - 1pt First/Last Goalscorer

My namesake Lyon Central Defender Cris has sscored 2 goals this season. Milan are weak from set pieces, so he is a more than fair price at 50/1 with BlueSq.

I'm having 1pt on first and last goal scorer.

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Position after 14 weeks:

Position after 14 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 238
Points returned on settled bets= 331
Profit on settled bets = 39 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 52.5

3 Months in, and things are going to plan....I'm trying to aim for a 40% proft - not too far off!

I missed 2 big price winners in the past 2 weeks (that I should have had):

- Blythe Night (william Hill Lincoln, 33-1) - tipped to me by a shrewd horse racing judge... howveer, I already had placed 2 bets on teh race so decided against having a 3rd
- Fabregas - 25-1 first goalscorer ((Arsenal v Juventus)... had been noting his recent goals, and excellent play, especially Europe.

Antepost Horse racingbets are looking good, for the National and the Order of Merit

Baseball - World Series - St. Louis Cardinals. - 2pts Win

St. Louis have a reasonably good chance of winning the World Series this year - I;d make them an approx. 8-1 chance.

Sporting Odds are going a standout price of 10-1... if St. Louis beat Philadelphia tomorrow night, I expect them to be approx. half this price.

Boat Race - Oxford or Cambridge to Sink - 33-1 1pt SportingOdds

In the past 60 yeasr there have been 2 events where a boat has sunk (3 sinkings, the latest in 1978). Therefore this price would be right for an average year

However, with forecast rough weather, I am sure this should be an approx. 12-1 chance... Sporting Odds are taking a serious risk by quoting 33-1. *Glances up at weather*

Masters - 80-1 Olazabel - 1/3 point win.

I managed to find a 'rick' at Betsson... they were going 80-1 on Olazabel for the Masters next week, when he was generally 33-1.

However, Betsson have generously allowed me 1/3 of a point (£8) before cutting the price to 28-1. I only tried to put 4pts win on :) ....

I'm sure I will have further bets, but this bet is a start (even if it is only for 'buttons').

First Goal Scorer - Andy Robinson LVD Vans Trophy Final - 1pt win 10 - 1 - Stan James

The 2 best fisrt goalscorer bets on the LDV vans trophy both paly for Swansea and are:

- Lee Trundle (5-1, 20 goals in 29 appearances)
- Andy Robinson (10-1, 11 goals in 23 appearances)

Both are value bets, but I've a slight preference for Andy Robinson due to his strong peformance in Cup Matches.

Ralf Schumacher 0.5pts 125-1 E/W Sporting Odds.

Ralf Schumacher has a shorter than 25-1 chance of making the podium.... it is probably an approx. 10-1 chance. By backing him E/W @ 125-1, my reasoning is that you are getting 12.51-1 on the podium and a free win bet!

Ralf will need multiple withdrawls, but this is possible with potenbtial crashes at the first corner.

Apologies for the late posting of this bet.... for this who want proof of my bet I'llpost it below!

Saturday, April 01, 2006

Arsenal v Aston Villa - Fabregas, Eboue First/Last Goal Scorer

Arsenal are rightly strong favourites against a weak Aston Villa side. I'm backing the following for both first/last goalscorer:

Fabregas - has looked dangerous recently and scored in midweek in the Chamions League - 1pt First and Last Goalscorer @ 18-1 (Bet365)

Eboue - Has scored once thsi season and relishes coming forward... has a fearsome shot - 0.5 pt First and Last Goalscorer @ 40-1 (Corals)