Sunday, October 21, 2007

Brazil GP - Hamilton to finish Lap 1 in worse position than Grid

Hamilton is 2nd on the grid, but for a couple of reasons I think he could be in a worse position at the end of lap 1:

- he is starting from the dirty side of the grid (like all even grid positions) - this will hinder his start
- he has 2 rivals who can win, so he needs to keep any confrontatiosn mimimized. Therfore from a "game theory" perspective, he is likely to 'back out' from an early confrontaion with Raikonnen (in 3rd) at the first corner. I think Raikkonen (or even Alonso in 4th) will try to make a move on Hamilton, most likely going into the first corner.

The 11/4 at Skybet is a more than reasonable price - I'd be going 5/4.

The only possible issue is that Hmailton is such a racer, he won't back out - however, depsite his young age and racing mentality, he will not want to throw the championship away.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

RWC Final - No Tryscorer - 16-1 - 2pts

I think that the RWC final could be relativey tight. The last 4 finals have had 2,2,0,1,2 tries respectively.... I think 16-1 is reasonable value for 'No Tryscorer'. I'm having 2 pts on this.

Tote Cesarewitch - Dr. Sharp, 2pts Win 14-1

I've missed the 'fancy' prices on Dr. Sharp in the Cesarewitch Ante Post market, but I still think Dr. Sharp is a godd bet at the generally availible 14-1 - I'd make him a 7-1/8-1 chance. He has a lot going for him:

- Two recent promising runs shows he is back to form after a poor early season
- Soft (Good to Soft in places) Ground
- High Draw (31/36).
- Trainer in form
- Ran well in the race last year from an unfavourable draw
- 2lb lower in the weights than last year
- Front running tactics minimise the possibility of trouble in running

Others I think have a good chance are Fair Along, Marcoville and, at a bigegr price, Ned Ludd.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Dr. Who to star at National TV Awards

Unlike the National Movie Awards, the (publicly) voted National TV Awards have soem 'form' to follow:

There are clear patterns to follow. The most noticeable is the success in the Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Drama in 2005 and 2006 for Dr. Who (new series). They clearly have a committed fan base which ensure their success. For this reason I'm hgaving the following bets at Skybet:

2pts Dr. Who 4/9 - Best Drama
2pts Freema Agyeman (Dr. Who)- 5/4 - Best Actress (limited from 6 pts)
4pts David Tennant (Dr. Who) - 11/10 - Best Actor (limited from 10 pts)

I think that the best bets on the other markets (looking at historical trends) are as follows:

Best Reality - Big Brother - 4/9
Best Serial Drama - Eastenders - 11/8
Ant & Dec's Saturday Night Takeaway - 2/7
Best Entertainment Presenter - Ant & Dec - 1/4

I've not had any bets on these markets - still considering...

Saturday, October 13, 2007

A1GP - Is Reid (NZ) underrated? I'll make Stan James pay!

A1GP is relatively low profile and currently only one bookmaker has prices on the championship (Stan James). I have backed New Zealand at 33/1 for the season (4pts E/W). They make now New Zealand 25/1 chances for the season ( - a price that is availible at 11.15 a.m.

I've aslo backed New Zealadnd for this weekend for Sprint Qualifying/Soprint Rac and Main Race Qualifying/Main Race. The qualifying fro the Sprint and Main Races takes place today at 1 p.m. (UK time) with the Sprint and Main Races tomorrow. The format (and otehr detaisl on the event) can be seen at:

(Unfortunately Stan James has now taken down the markets for this weekend's qualifying sessions and race).

Newe Zealand have a great record in A1GP coimg 4th (2005-2006) and 2nd last year (2006-2007). Their improved performace is atributable to the increased use of Johhny Reid (identical cars are used by all partcipants). Johnny Reid will again be the main driver this year.

He is racing this weekend in the Czech republic - he had a great ride in qulaifying there last year, on pole. Unfortunaetly he went out on the first lap of the Sprint race. This compromised his main race (different qualifying system last year).

So why is Johnny Reid/New Zeland such a big price? I can only put this down to the 'recency' affect. He has a poor race last race (first race of the season). It looks like Stan James have based their current season prices on the this first race, rather than last season. Although there is a little merit in this (show the speed of the current drivers), I am sure they have read too much into this race.

The other resaon why these prices migfht be wrong is the low profile of this series - it would be virtually impossible to price up a Premisership match inccrrectly. Thsi shows the benefit of conecentrating you attention on 'specialist' events.

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Year of Next UK General Election

Quick reactions can lead to great bets... it happened last year for me for on bets on SPOTY (Zar Philips, 11-1) and SCD (Mark Ramprakash). Typically, Betfair has reacted and you have have 15 mins (max.) to put your bets on with bookies.

A situation like thsi occured yesterday. It was announced as the lead story on BBC News that Gordon Brown has ruled at this Year (2007) for a General Election. There as no way they would have lead with this without being 100% sure (it turns out that Andrew Marr/BBC was having a one-to-one interview).

The odds on a 2007 General Election had moved to 40-1 at Betfair. However Willima Hill were still offering 4-6 on there NOT being a General Election in 2007. Not bad prices for a two runner race! William Hill limited me to pts. I also placed 0.5 pts at 40-1 on Betfair on a 2007 Election, in the (unlikely) event of a change of mind by Gordon Brown.

On a related market, I as able to back a 2009 General Election at 4/1 at Coral. I was limited to 4pts. This is now an even money chance on Betfair, as Gordon Bron has said a 2008 election is also unlikely.

These markets were pulled by the bookies approx. 15 mins later.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Hyypia to score anytime (Liverpool v Tottenham) - 16-1 - 2pts

With Agger currently injured, Hyypia is the target man for Liverpool for headers at corners. He has yet to score this season, but looked a potent threat in mid-week v Valencia. Liverpool were poor in that game, but could easily bounce back against a Spurs team especially weak at defending at set plays.

William Hill are taking a chance at offering Hyypia at 16-1 - he is signficantly shorter elsewhere. I'm having 2pts at this price on Hyppia scoring at anytime in the match.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

2pst Lescott (Everton) - 9/1 Anytime scorer v Metallist

I;ve steered clare of Football bets (First/Anytime scorer) this season, however it has become *blindingly* obvious that defender Lescott (Everton) is a master of scoring from set plays. For this reason. I've had 2pts on Lescott (Boylesports) to score anytime tonight v Metallist.

Everton are 4/5 chances away at Metallist (I think they probably shoudl be shorter), and there is no reason to suspect Lescott is any less likely to score this evening than previous games.