Monday, December 29, 2008

Two Premiership players of the same team to be sent off for fighting in 2009 - 25/1 - 1 pt


The last time two Premiership players of the same team were sent off for fighting was in 2005 (Dyer/Boyer for Newcstle).

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=AFLeTm46CqQ&feature=related

Before that, Le Saux/Batty had a (onfield) fight in 1995 in Moscow while playing for Blackburn - if this happened in the Premier League, both players would have been red carded. To me, this looks like an approx 10/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Will Hill at 25/1 but they restricted me to 1 pt.

N.B. Both Coral and Hills now have there '2009 Specials' online - if anyone and see any value bets, please post in the comments. Thanks.

Stone Roses to reform (7/1) , The Smiths to reform (5/1) in 2009 (2pts on each) - BlueSQ



Increasingly bands are reforming (probably mostly for financial reasons). Record companies are happy to pay hansomely, knowing the bands have fanbase ready to buy music/attend concerts. I'm therfore having 2pts on each of 'The Stone Roses' and 'The Smiths' reforming in 2009. In both cases, there is a band member holding out, but in each case they may be persuaded....

Cipriani/Brook to marry in 2009 - 2 pts - 33/1 BlueSQ


Cipriani and Brook are currrenly an item. How likely are they to marry in 2009? Without knowing them personally, an attempt to place odds on this is quite tricky. There are indications in the press (see below) that it is at least being considered in which case there are plenty of financial incentives to help with a 'positive' decision e.g. a lucrative OK magazine deal. My 'gut feel' is that this should be, at most, a 10/1 chance. I'm having 2pts at 33/1 at BlueSQ

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/showbiz/xs/article105933.ece

Hull to qualify for Europe - 25/1 - 2 pts - BlueSq


I believe that Hull has a reasonable chance of qualifying for Europe. There are several ways that they can achieve this:

- Champions League - very unlikely
- UEFA Cup - possible

UEFA Cup qualification could come through the FA Cup, Premier League , Inter Toto Cup, Fairplay league etc....they probably need to either win the FA Cup (100/1), lose to a top 4 side in the FA Cup (33/1?) in the FA Cup Final or finish Top 7 in Premier League (16/1?). I think that it is an approximate 10/1 chance for at least one of these to happen. I'm therefore having 2pts at 25/1 on Hull to qualify for Europe in 2009.

(I tried to have 8pts but BlueSQ restricted me).

Aiden O'Brien to win all five Irish Classics - 66/1 - 2 pts win - Bluesq


Aiden O'Brien is increasingly dominating the Irish Flat Racing scene, as can be demonstrated by his record in the five Irish classics in the last 3 years:

2006 - 2 wins
2007 - 3 wins
2008 - 5 wins

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aidan_O%27Brien

BlueSq are going a generous 66/1 on him achiveing his 2008 clean sweep again in 2009. I think this is probably a 10/1 chance at most - it is a top priced 25/1 at other bookies. I'm therfore having 2pst on this.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Monty Panesar to win 'Beard of the Yaer' 2009 - 2pst - 16/1 - Bluesq


The 'Beard of the Year' award is made by the Beard Liberation Front:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beard_Liberation_Front

Monty Panesar has a good record in this event and could be due a possible win in BOTY. He won this award in 2006 and finished Top 3 in 2007. Interestingly, a cricketer also won this award in 2004/5 - there is probably an overlap between followers of cricket and voters in this event. Cricket has not been especially high profile this year, but there are no obvious other front runners I can think off.

I would make Panesar an approx 5/1 chance to win this award (although it is a difficult to market to judge). I've had 2pts at 16/1 with BlueSq.

Jockey to finish in the Top 10 in BBC SPOTY 2009


I think Bluesq have seriously underestimated the chances of a Jockey fishing in the Top 10 of SPOTY 2009. The woeful amount of coverage given by the BBC to this year's racing on SPOTY (< 1 min) shouldn't detract from the possibility that a jockey could be Top 10 next year. Indeed, it is only in 2006 that Frankie Dettori made the Top 3.

So what would it take for UK Sports Editors (who vote for the Top 10) to make a Jockey part of it? The immediate possibilities I can think of are:

- Keiran Fallon - returns this year and if he had a successful return (e.g success in the Breeders Cup) could be selected. I'm sure Lester Piggott would have made the Top 10 on his return.
- Hayley Turner -I think she will become one of the outstanding jockeys of her generation (of either sex). If she has a successful season and wins a series of high profile races (or becomes the first women jockey to win any Classic) she will likely be Top 10.
- Any jockey (Jumps/Flat) going through the card (as Frankie Dettori did at Ascot in 1996).

I'd make this bet an approx 5/1 chance - the 50/1 is great value. I've tried to have 8 pts at 50/1 and have been restricted (not unreasonably) to 2pts.


I;m sure there are many others

Sharon Osbourne to return to X Factor in 2009 - 2 pts - 10/1 - Bluesq


It has been suggested that Danni Minogue may be leaving X Factor (she is thought to be too similar to Cheryl Cole who is more popular with the public). It would not be impossible for Sharon Osbourne to return (Louis Walsh was brought back). Indeed, there have been rumours to suggest this.

http://tinyurl.com/9qn6fh

I think the 10/1 on Sharon Osbourne returning in 2009 is reasonably generous. I think it should be an approx 4/1 chance (although trying to judge the correct prices is notriously difficult for both bookies and punters alike).

Phil Taylor to win all 2008 TV Touranenst - 2pts - 33/1 - Stan James


Anyone who know anything about sport will tell you that Phil Taylor is one of the most underrated sportsmen (how he doesn't make Top 10 in Sports Personality of the Year in most years is a disgrace).

Since the 2007/8 World Championships, Phil Taylor has been in sensational form. In subsequent live TV tournaments, in only lost one of event (and that was only narrowly). I think that Stan James are taking a chance by quoting Phil Taylor at 33/1 to win the eight live TV events. I think he will be odds on for all these events and, as the year progresses, if he continues to win he will get progressively shorter priced.

I would make it a 16/1 chance at most. I've had 2 pts. at 33/1.

(Events listed below)
Premier League, US Open, UK Open, Las Vegas Desert Classic, World Matchplay, World Grand Prix, World Championship 2009/10, Grand Slam Of Darts.

New Year Specials - Updates Ahead

This is the time of year when Bookies make 'New Year Special Bets' available. Most are awful value, but there is an occasional standout bet. I've found a few and will be putting them online over the new few days. The only downside is bookies claiming these agreed bets are 'palpable errors'(as happened to me last year). Not sure what can be done to protect the punter against this - any comments gratefully appreciated.

** Anyone see any bets that think are value, please post in the comments. Thanks ***

Friday, December 05, 2008

IACGMOH - Lay Joe Swash at 1.2 - 4pts (to win 19 pts - Betfair)


There have been plenty of shocks in the final night of reality TV series, not least in IACGMOH. These shocks (I believe) are due to the increased voting on the night by individuals who haven't voted before and who are unduly influenced by the actions on the night. This is especially true for IACGMOH where the individual doing the nastiest i.e eating 'bushtucker trial' can get more votes than expected. For this reason, I'm laying the 'good thing' Joe Swash at 1-5.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Number of Live Births in 2009 > 700,000 - 2pts 9/2 Paddy Power

Paddy Power have opened a market on the number of live births in England and Wales in 2009. I've checked the historic stats on this from www.statistics.gov.uk and they are as follows:

Year Number of live births

1997 643,095
1998 635,901
1999 621,872
2000 604,441
2001 594,634
2002 596,122
2003 621,469
2004 639,721
2005 645,835
2006 669,601
2007 690,013

Paddy Power are quoting a price of 9/2 on there being > 700,000 births - I think this is excellent value. Births this year (2008) are likely to top the 700,00 mark and I therefore think > 700,000 in 2009 should be a heavy odds-on chance. I tried to have 20 pts (£500, my max. bet) at 9/2 but was restricted to 2 pts. I will expect to collect my winning in approx 2 years time...

Saturday, November 22, 2008

SCD - 10th Elimation - Rachael Stevens - 10/1 - 4pts


Rachael Stevens showed two weeks ago what I always suspected - that she would struggle for public support. From a high position in the leaderboard, she was forced into a dance off (which she won). With a stronger field tonight, she is much more likely to lose any dance off. I have had 4 pts at a generally available 10/1 on Rachael to be eliminated tonight.

(N.B. The betting slip above only say 1.5 pts as I have had to spread my bets across multiple bookies due to betting limits on most of my accounts)

Christine Bleakley has strong public support (probably down to character and her nightly appearances on the 'One Show'. I think she she will do better than expected - I've backed her at 17/2 (4 pts) at Boylesports for the 'Top Woman' market. (This is supported by the above analysis that Rachael could be eliminated tonight). I've also have 1pt on Jodie Kidd to be Top woman (33/1, Boylesports). She could get the sympathy vote tonight due to illness which would mean she was down to the last three women.

Update : Unfortunately, for those that follow my blog, these prices are no longer available on Christine/Jodie.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

NASCAR - Ford 400 - Jimmie Johnson 2pts Win 8/1, Kevin Harvick - 2pts Win - 25/1



The final race of the NASCAR season sees just Johnson and Edwards still in with a chance of winning the Sprint Championship.
Over the years, Homestead has not been one of Jimmie Johnson's quickest circuits. Johnson only needs to finish low down in the field to win the Championship so will not take any risks to win this race. He qualified low on Friday, but showed in practice yesterday he still has the pace. He will still wish to finish the season with a win (without taking risks). At 8/1, I'm having 2pts win - he was 5/2 last week and the discrepancy is just too great.... I'd make him a 5/1 chance (at most). (N.B I've actually had 1pt at 8/1 and 1pt at 15/2 as Bet365 limited me to 1 pt!)

An alternative is Edwards who has has an excellent record here and has qualiied in 4th. He will be motivated to win this race but, at a top price 5/2, bookies are giving nothing away. The price is probably about right.

I'm also having a speculative 2pts bet on Kevin Harvick (25/1) to win this race. His record is also excellent at Homestead and has qualified this week in 5th. He is yet to win this season, but with the Championship battle possibiy affecting Edwards/Johnson, he may have a chance.... I'd make him an approx 10/1 chance (at most).

Update: Stan James have opened and allowed me a 1pt on Jimmie John (Max Allowed) at 8/1.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

David Haye v Monte Barrett - Early stoppage for Monet Barrett

Both Haye and Barrett have a record of early stoppages (Rnd 1-2). Barrett is a dangerous opponent and could spring a surprise against Haye in an early round. (Barrett has done before against opponents that have been of similar quality to Haye). I've therefor had the following bets at Ladbrokes:

3 pts Barrett to Win Rnds. 1-2 (28/1)
1 pt Barret to win Rnds. 3-4 (25/1)
1 pt Barett to win Rnds. 5-6 (22/1)
1 pt Barret to win By KO, TKO (11/2)

AS you can see, I've strongly biased this for Rnds. 1-2, but still make decent profits if Barrett wins in Rnds. 3-6 with a cover if Barrett wins in Rnds. 7-10

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

SCD - Cherie to be Eliminated (Week 9) - 25-1 1.5 pts William Hill


As someone who is backed Cherie in SCD at the start, (Outright, Top Woman) I think this is an extremely dangerous week for her (with a Latin dance). I've taken the 25-1 at William Hill as a quasi-cover bet, but even if I didn't have any bets in the outright market I'd place this bet. BTW I think she COULD come good this week, just at 25-1 I'm prepared to chance against it. She is only 25-1 this week because a successful ballroom dance last week....

Monday, November 10, 2008

Laura White to win X-Factor - 250/1 Betfair 1pt


I think there is a possibility that Laura White will be asked to make a return to X-factor. Stan James have a market on Laura's return and make her 10/1 for this eventuality. If Laura returns, she will be one of the favourites (and I'll be in an excellent position to layoff this bet for a guaranteed profit).

Sunday, November 09, 2008

John Seargent to win SCD - 1pt 100/1, Top Male 1pt 66/1 (Boylesports)

If I have been informed correctly, the dance off tonight will between Heather and Rachael, with Heather being evicted. What this shows us is that John Sergeant is either finishing at the top (or near the top) with the audience voting. (Otherwise he couldn't;t have got above Rachael). I've therefore had a speculative 1pts on both the winner (100/1) and top male (66/1) on John Sergeant for the audience to continue to confound the judges.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Nascar Sprint Cup Checker O'Reilly 500 - Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - 4 pts, Jamie McMurray (50/1) - 0.5pts E/W




Jimmie Johnson has an excellent record at this track and will be keen to bounce back from last weeks poor performance) to win this race and make as likely as possible that he will win the Championship (2 races to go, including this race). He has qualified first on the grid (indicating last weeks issue has been resolved) and I think should be a 2/1 chance to win the race. I'm having 4pts at 4/1 at Boylesports.

I'm also having 0.5pst E/W on Jamie McMurray for this race from 2nd on the grid (max allowed - I tried to have 2pts E/W). He has been very unlucky with mechanical problem in the past few weeks, and was again unlucky last. It was only the daring fuel strategy from Edwards (who needed to maximizes points for the Championship) that stopped McMurray winning this race which an inspired to 2 tyre only change at the final pitstop.

Update: BlueSq have opened a market ion thsi race and have Jamie McMurray at 66/1 - I've had a further 1pt E/W (Max allowed)

US Presidential Election 2012 - Jeb Bush - 2pts win 100/1, 1pt Republican Nomination 33/1 - Labrokes


If Jeb Bush chooses to stand for the Republication nomination for the 2012 Election, he has an excellent chance of securing it. He was able to win (and get re-elected) as Florida Governor and, most importantly, has the Bush name to help him. His was always seen as a stronger candidate than the last Bush President (his brother) and would have the support of his family. Jeb Bush would stand on a centre right platform which, if Obama's Presidency is unsuccessful, could work well electorally. Of course there are many other Republican possible challengers (not least Palin), but at 100/1 I'm prepared to invest a couple of points of my Obama winnings. I've also had 1pt (max allowed) on him securing the Republican nomination.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Online Gambling to be legalised in the US (first action) - 16/1 - 6 pts - Paddy Power


Paddy Power have opened a market as to which of a series of actions will happen first under Barack Obama. They are as follows:

Full Troop withdrawal from Iraq 2 - 5
Capture of Osama Bin Laden 6 - 1
Full National recognition of Same Sex Marriage 7 - 1
Legalisation of Marijuana 12 - 1
Full Troop withdrawal from Afghanistan 12 - 1
Online Gambling legalised 16 - 1
Total ban of Capital Punishment 20 - 1
Constitution changed to allow the President to serve 3 or more full terms 16 - 1
Moonwalk confirmed as a fake by Obama 50 - 1
Complete ban on privately owned guns 100 - 1
Discovery of Aliens on Mars 500 - 1

A Full Troop withdrawal form Iraq will probably happen in end 2010 - he certainly won't want to go into a 2012 campaign with troops in Iraq. SO 2010 is the benchmark we are working to.

I think the most likely event to happen before then is the leaglisation of Online Gambling. The Democrats have now a strong control of the legislature and legalising gambling would be far less controversial/politically divisive than the other legislative items above. A Democrat Barney Frank has already (narrowly) failed to put through a bill to re-legalise online gambling by repealing UIGEA. It is quite possible he will put forward this bill again.

Obama is also a poker player, so from a personal perspective I think he would not have an issue with legalising online gambling - he has been 'neutral' on the issue in the past. It would also be a great way to raise taxes. I would make this an approx 3-1 chance to happen first - I'm pleased Paddy Power have allowed me 6 pts on this eventuality.

Hennessy Gold Cup - Air Force One - 8-1 - 4pts Win


Air Force One had a impressive re-appearance last weekend behind Roll Along, finishing second (when not fully fit). The handicapper has been generous and only raised him 3 lbs for that run. Air Force One is being aimed at the Hennessy (a strong 'trends' race) and has has the right profile for it. Overall, I think Air Force One has an excellent chance of winning the Hennessy Gold Cup. I am having 4pts at a generally available 8-1. (I'd make Air Force One a 5-1 chance).

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Brazil Grand Prix - Raikkonen - 11/1 - 1.5 pts - SportingBet


As per my post below, I think this is a much more open Brazil Grand Prix than the markets suggest. Massa is 8/13 and Raikkonen is 11/1 - this difference is far too large. I appreciate that Raikkonen starts in 4th rather than 1st on the grid and would, in many circumstances, be asked to give way to Massa but the differences in price is simply too big. I'd make the correct prices 5/4 Massa, 5/1 Raikkonen. I would have liked to have 4pst on Raikkonen, but I was restricted to 1.5 pts.

Brazil F1 GP - Hamilton to retire on Lap 1 - 20/1 - Stan James


With rain forecast, this race is very difficult to call. The one thing I am sure of is that Massa is not a good price at 8/13 to win the race. However, picking who will beat him is a lottery. I've therefore focussed on the 'speciality markets'. Unfortunately, most of these offer little value. The only one I like the look of is the 20/1 on Hamilton to retire on the first lap.

Staring from fifth, a crash on the first lap for Hamilton is a real possibility. From a slow start, either Trulli or Raikkonen could back up the field. Alonso could then easily 'unfortunately' run into the back of Hamilton. Alternatively, Raikkonen could have a slow start could collide with Hamilton - Raikkonen (Ferrai) will not back off. Hamilton will of course try an play it cautious, however from the miiddle of the pack that is easier said than done. It is also not in Hamilton's nature. Any rain would increase the probability of a crash on the first corner.

Just hoping for no start under the safety car! The other issue could be that Hamilton's car is repaired and sent out agin several laps beind if the damage is not severe (especially is there is rain and the possibility of few finshers).

I would make a Hamilton retirement on the first lap an 8/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Stan James, but they restricted me to 1 pt - if I get a chance, I will see if I can put on the extra 1pt in a shop this afternoon.

Update: I went to a SJ shop - the price has been cut to 16/1! I had another 1pt at this price.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

BBC MoD Goal of the Season - David Bentley - 8/1 - Skybet - 3pts


I think David Bentley is a reasonable price at 8/1 for MoD Goal of the Season. I've looked at past winners and it is difficult to discern a pattern for the type of goals. The only common thread is the clubs the players have played for - the last 7 have played for one of the 'Big 4'. Also worringly, Beckham's goal from the half way line didn't win! Despite these two negatives, I'm fairly sure this goal will be one of the contenders at the end of the season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goal_of_the_Season

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Portsmouth to be Relegated - 8pts - 50/1 - William Hill


I've just had 8pts on at 50/1 at Hills. Should be much shorter... 16/1 maybe? Only 9 games into season and with Redknapp gone and (reportedly) financial problems, if they have to sell players in the January transfer window Portsmouth could implode.

P.S. I know the bet says 4pts - I had a further 4pts on while I was writing this up as the more I thought about it, the better value I thought it was.... maybe 10/1?

Totteham Hotspur to win Premiership without 'Big 4' - 50/1 5pts E/W (14/1,2,3) - Coral


Tottenham have made a sensible decision by removing their management (and structure) and bringing in Harry Redknapp. Comolli as a Director of Football was clearly not working, as can been seen by the fiasco over strikers in the Summer. With Harry Redknapp in sole charge of footballing matters, I can see a major improvement in Tottenham's fortunes. Fifth will be a big ask, but top seven may definitely be achievable. Other than Aston Villa, there do not seem many strong clubs challenging for positions 5-7.

Changing the manager does not by itself improve the fortunes of a club, however Ramos had clearly lost the dressing room. His tactical choices this season have been strange and is continual lack of English hasn't help. Redknapp's only requirement is to keep the club up, however if he can string a series of results together he may well be looking to a UEFA position. The players he has are not inherently bad - sure Tottenham have weaknesses on the left sided of midfield and up front, but these areas can be strengthen in the January transfer window - I think it is far from impossible that you will see Defoe returning (Portsmouth may need to have a 'fire sale').

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Henry the Navigator is > 20-1 in the US Pools...


The US public have gone mad for Curlin.... I've had 2pts on Henry the Navigator at an (insulting) approx 20-1. Is this Rail Link all over again?

Crowded House to win 2009 Epsom Derby - 16/1 - 2pts Labrokes


Crowded House produced an excellent display to win the Racing Post Trophy today. His acceleration in the the final furlong was 'Arazi like' and I think he will make an great Derby prospect (for which he is aimed). Horses that have won the Racing Post Trophy have an very good record in the Epson Derby. Therefore, the 16/1 at Ladbrokes for Crowded House to win the 2009 Epson Derby is a great price. I'm sure if his trainer Brian Meehen was a 'bigger' name, then he would be far shorter (5/1?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowded_House

O'Brien to train the first two home in Breeders Cup Classic - 0.5 pts - 40/1 Betfred


I have a feeling my flop in the Breeders Cup Classic (new trip, new surface). I'ev decided to take him on by backing O'Brien to have the fisrt two home in the Breeders Cup Classic at 40/1. I've tried to have 1pt, but 'fearless' Fred has only allowed me 0.5 pts!

Osasuna v Real Betis - Abella Damia - Anytime Goalscorer - 16/1 Extrabet 1pt


Midfielder Damia has scored two goals in the first four games of La Liga and his good value at 16/1 to score at anytime in the Osasuna v Real Betis game tonight. He is as short as 11/2 elsewhere....

http://www.football.co.uk/real_betis/players/abella_damia_111430.shtml

Friday, October 24, 2008

Mandleson to leave Cabinet in 2008 - 7.1 - Paddy Power - 1pt


I’ve availed myself on some of the 7/1 at Paddy Power on Mandelson to leave the Cabinet in 2008. I tried to have 4pts, but was restricted (as ever) to 1pt. I’m convinced that this week has been simply a last ditch diversionary tactic by Mandelson to save his position and that there is more (serious) dirt in Mandelson to come out at the weekend …. I suspect Brown would not mind asking Mandelson to leave, given their previous rocky relationship. Brown can then continue with his 'I've saved the world' narrative.

No European Winners (including Godolphin) at the Breeders Cup - 20/1 BlueSQ - 2pts Win


I've not had time to do the full analysis, but I think that 20/1 on no European winners at the Breeders Cup looks too big. (It is as short as 7/1 elsewhere). I'm having 2pts with Blue Square on this...

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Premier League - O'Sullivan to beat Davis 6-0 and Perry to beat Hendry 6-0 (Double) - 125/1 - 1pt Ladbrokes

Last week saw to 6-0 whitewashes by Perry and O'Sullivan. It is not impossible that we could see similar result tonight.

If O'Sullivan turns up in the right frame of mind, he has the ability to beat Davis 6-0. O'Sullivan is not in great form, but he showed last week he can be the master at Premier League snooker if he turns his mind turns to it. Davis has yet to get off the mark.

Perry has played well this year in the Premier League and can turn over Hendry who has yet to score (although he has only played one game).

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Bordeaux v Cluj - FGS Cuilo 1pt E/W 33/1 Blue Square


Unfashionable Cluj are being continually underrated by the bookies. The have shown with their performances in the Champions League so far that they are a perfectly capable team. They have a real chance of defeating a weak Bordeaux side tonight and, even more likley, scoring the first goal.

Attacking midfielder Cuilo had a poor scoring record last year in the Romanian League, but he seems to be transformed this year in the Chamions League. He has scored two goals v Roma. At 33/1, BlueSq are taking a real chance - he is approximately half the odds at other bookies.

Absolutely no 'Gangsta Paradise' jokes.

Wanted: Bookmakers who can take bets.


Are there any bookmakers left who will take my bets?

The latest problem I have is with Boylesports (who have previously taken reasonable bets from me). The latest MAXIMUM bet they would take from me was £0.03 (3p). Frankly, thsi is getting ludcicrous - are others having these same issues? Or is it just me?

I'm serious, if you are a bookmaker and would be prepared to take my bets, please contact me at chris.trinder@gmail.com - I'm waiting....

(Partial) Lock in of profits on NASCAR - Jimmie Johnson


Those of you who follow my blog will know I have 10 pts on Jimmie Johnson at 7/1 to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup. He is now an approximate 1/10 chance. I've persuaded Stan James to offer me 11/2 on him NOT to win. They allowed me 4 pts (max.) at this price which means I can (partially) lock in my profits. Jimme Johnson is approx 150 pts clear with 4 races to go. If he has a DNF (e.g. via engine failure) he would still be favourite but others such as Edwards/Biffle would be back in with excellent chances.

Update: I've had a further 2pts at 16/1 on Carl Edwards - I think he is the most likely title contender can could potentially come back into the reckoning tonight (where he is joint favourite with Jimmie Johnson).

Saturday, October 18, 2008

John Sergeant to be eliminated (SCD) - 5th Elimination - 2pts - 7/1

John Sergeant is this years 'joke' candidate in SCD. As always, these individuals survive at least a handful of weeks (when they are typically favourite to be eliminated). The public back them enough to ensure they stay clear of the bottom 2 positions (when the judges and public votes are combined), preventing the judges from eliminating them.

This week John Sergeant is dancing the Samba, a fast pace dance that will not suit him. This means he is likely to get low judges score. When this score is combined with the public vote, he has a reasonable chance of finishing in the bottom 2 (when he will surely be eliminated). (He is helped by there being more people in his 'heat' as the male/female fields are combined, but this is offset by the elimiation in the past 4 weeks of the weaker candidates). The generally availible 7/1 is a great price - I'd make it closer to a 2/1 chance.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Scott Bruton to win X Factor 2pts win @ 40/1


I've not spent nearly enough time watching X Factor. Perhaps someone can enlighten me as to why an entry in the 15-24 male category is 40-1? I've had 2 pts on him to win to try and spark some interest for me in this contest....

Labour to win the Glenrothes By-Election - 6pts - 10/3


The result in the 2005 General Election was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenrothes_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

General Election, 5 May 2005
Party Candidate Votes %
Labour John MacDougall 19,395 51.9
Scottish National Party John Beare 8,731 23.4
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Riches 4,728 12.7
Conservative Belinda Don 2,651

The latest opinion polls in this constituency put Labour/SNP neck and neck (they were taken some time ago, before the recent financial crisis). Be warned though - most polls overstate Labour support (e.g in the Glasgow East By Election where they wwere +15% ahead in the polls and narrowly lost.) If the swing from Labour to SNP at the By Election is as large as the the Glasgow East By Election, SNP will win this seat.

The Labour candidate is not very strong, but I don't think this has a significant impact.

However, the current financial meltdown *may* well be a ‘game changer’ (like Gordon’s cancelled election, Inheritance Tax etc.) This time the 'game changer' could be in Labour's favour, rather than the previous ones which were aginst it. Votes could 'cling' Brown similar to Major in 1992 (during the last recession).

I therefore think the Glenrothes by-election in early Novemeber will be close and have taken the 10/3 at Coral on Labour (6 pts).

Update: Unfortunately, the top price you cna now get on Labour is now 9/4 (Stan James) - this is still a reasonable bet.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

First Cliche said by ITV Commentators during England v Kazakhstan Match


Paddy Power have opened a market on this, any the options are as follows

Very Nice
Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
High Five
Jagshemesh
Is Nice
It's Sexy Time

(If none of these said during the match, bets are losers).

I think 'Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan' has a live chance at 25-1 (I missed the 50-1 earlier today) - I'm having 1.5 pts (max allowed). I think the ITV commentators will avoid the simpler phrases - Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan still alludes to the Borat film, but is less derogatory. My biggest concern is not that it won't be said, but that it will be said before the game.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

A1GP - Zandvoort - France to win Feature Race - 0.5pts E/W - BlueSQ


A1GP kicks off today at Zandvoort. The new series (now in Ferrari powered cars) has started in somewhat of a shambles. The change of supplier means that the first race was canceled and in addition not all teams have made the second (now first!) race. As teams have had limited testing time, the qualifying for this weekend has changed compared to the rest of this season (and compared with last season!). This weekend (only), the Feature race grid will be formed from the result of the Sprint race.

France (with Luc Duval) would normally be one of the favourites for an A1GP race. However, France went off in qualifying for the Sprint race (when on a 'hot lap' and race fromn near the back of the Sprint race grid. This will mean that they will struggle to get placed in the Sprint race. However, this should give them a good starting position for the Feature race. I think the 80/1 at Blue Sq is excellent value. I've had 0.5pts E/.W (max allowed, but all punters are limited to this - I tried to have 2pts E/W).

Update: It looks like there may well be rain in the racing today - there was certainly a wet track in the 'pre-race'. A wet race makes the outcome more uncertain (hence better to be with outsiders) and accentuates the skill of better dirvers (such as Duval). I've have therefore had the following additional bets at Boylesports:

- 0.5pst E/W France for Sprint Race (50/1) (a podium for this race is now a possibility, but still unlikely)
- 0.5pts E/W France for the Feature Race
(Both the above at Boylesports).

Saturday, October 04, 2008

SCD - Don Warrington - Highest Judges Score - 66/1 - 1pt - Coral

Austin Healy is rightly the favourite to score the highest judges score this week, but 1/2 is plenty short enough. I think Don Warrington may have an outside chance of scoring the highest with the judges. He put on a reasonable peformance midweek in training when dancing the Tango. The acting nature of this dance may well suit (actor) Don Warrington. I make him a 25/1 chance (at most) to top score with the judges this week - the 66/1 at Coral is more than fair.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Arc - Red Rock Canyon - 1pt E/W 500-1 - Ladbrokes


Those who follow my blog know I have 12 pts at 6/1 on a British or Irish trained horse winning the Arc this weekend ... this is looking a good bet.

However, I can't resist having 1pt E/W @ 500/1 (!) on Red Rock Canyon for the Arc. French races can have pace 'issues' and with potentially soft ground the probable pacemaker Red Rock Canyon could be given a healthy lead. A win is unlikley, but 100/1 on this horse making the first three is an insult - I'd make it a 20/1 chance on this eventuality (at most).

Monday, September 29, 2008

Eduardo Bruno Alves to score - Porto v Arsenal


Arsenal have some serious problem defending set pieces at the moment. Alves (a Porto centreback) is a typical player to take advantage of this. He has a reasonable scoring record and although Porto are outsiders for this game there is definately a possibility he could get on the score sheet.

The 80/1 for FGS has disappeared at Bet365, but 66/1 is still available at Betfred. I have had a total of 4pts invested, spread across FGS, LGS and Anytime goalscorer. N.B. I tried to have 2pts at Bet365 at 25/1 on Anytime goalscorer - they accepted a £2 max bet (I tried to have £50) and have since cut the price to 10/1. Have some balls guys!

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/players/stats?id=35997&&cc=5739

Saturday, September 27, 2008

SCD - Cheri Lunghi to score 10pts first (2pts) / top scorer first (women's) elimination night (2pts)


Having watch the midweek program (It Takes Two/BBC2) where Cheri Lunghi performed well I have taken two further opportunities to back Cheri Lunghi

- Cheri Lunghi to score a judged 10pts first 14/1 (2pts win)
- Cheri Lunghi top scorer first (women's) elimination night 12/1 (2pts win)

(Both these markets are at Boylesports). I expect Cheri Lunghi to impress the judges with her Foxtrot tonight (a dance which will suit her). She could even score a 10....!) I am still not confident she can win, but a good performance in the first week will see her outright (25/1) and top women (14/1) price shorten.

Monday, September 22, 2008

NASCAR Market Update - Cover Bet on Biffile @ 6/1


Those of you who follow my blog will know I have the following positions on the NASCAR Sprint Cup

- 10 pts win (£250) Jimmie Johnson @ 7/1 (now favourite, top priced 7/4)
- 2 pts win ( £50) Carl Edwards @ 5/1 (now second favourite, top priced 2/1) (cover bet)

With 2 DNFs for Kyle Busch, the Sprint cup now looks increasingly like a three horse race between Johnson, Edwards and Biffle (the latter who was won the first 2 races of the chase). I have therefore has a 2nd cover bet as follows:

- 2 pts win Greg Biffle @ 6/1 (2nd cover bet)

It is 25/1 bar these 3 drivers, so I my position is +£1.6K on Jimmie Johnson, level on Edwards/Biffle and -£0.35K on the 25/1 outsiders.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Strictly Come Dancing - Cherie Lunghi - 25/1 (Outright) 7pts, 14/1 (Top Female) 5pts


The most critical attribute for winning Strictly is the ability to dance. After week one, it will be clear who can (and cannot) dance and the markets will react accordingly. Therefore, to be ahead of the game, I have backed Cherie Lunghi in the outright and top female markets.

She studied ballet when she was younger, so is likely to have the aptitude for ballroom dancing (and hence unlikely to go out early). Her age is a concern (winners are typically younger), but, being an actress. she is relatively glamorous. Whether the public take to her as a person is a difficult call (as it is for all entrants - much will depend on how the BBC choose to portray her).

I have had tho place my bets at several bookmakers as most had limits on the bets I could place. The strictest limit was Ladbrokes who insisted on a max £5 (=0.2 pt for me) bet for me online/over the phone..... so meant I had to go to shop where they don;t seem to be so strict on limits and place 4pts (£100)!

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

9 pts win Lance Armstrong to win 2009 Tour De France.


As expected/rumoured, Lance Armstrong has confirmed that he will try to reclaim the 2009 Tour De France. 16-1 is available at sportingbet.com. If he does make the lineup, that 16-1 may well look massive in 9 months time! I can see him starting even money favourite. Although he is 38 (very old for the Tour De France), he is a five time winner and he is/was a different class from the current riders.

I've had the following bets:

1pt sportingbet.com @16-1 (max allowed)
2pts paddypower.com @16-1 (max allowed)
4pts bet365.com @ 14-1 (well done guys - had to ring up for this, 0.1 pts allowed online!)

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2008/09/armstrong200809

Monday, August 25, 2008

Phil Taylor to go undefetaed in 2009 Premier League Darts - 4pts @ 10/1


Phil Taylor's record in the Prmier League darts is a s follows:

Win Draw Loss

2005 11 1 0
2006 11 1 0
2007 11 3 0
2008 10 1 3

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League_Darts)

The 3 2008 defeats were in the early part of the seaon when he had lost is form. Taylor is now back to his very best. Skybet have made him 10/1 to go undefeated next year - I would make this an even money chance! (at most). I've tried to have 10pts on, but was restricted by Skybet to 4 pts.

European Order of Merit - Henrik Stenson 4pts win 12/1


Stenson finishedthird this weekend in the KLM and has brought himslef back in contention for the European OoM. With 42 of 54 events palyed, the top six standings are as follows (with best prices):

1 Padraig HARRINGTON €2,350,556 (8/15)
2 Lee WESTWOOD €1,839,480 (100/30)
3 Miguel Angel JIM√ČNEZ €1,794,092 (16/1)
4 Henrik STENSON €1,773,617 (12/1)
5 Graeme MCDOWELL €1,675,186 (50/1)
6 Robert KARLSSON €1,674,436 (33/1)

Harrington is the quite righly clear favourite, but with 12 events to go you would be a brave man to back him at a best priced 8/15 - this markets has seen significant fluctuations already this season. Prize money is biased towards the end of the season - this increases the uncertainty (and makes Harrington/Westwood players to be taken on). Westwood is way too short at 100/30, so the value has to be one of the other 4.

Without knowing the detailed entries, it is difficult to pick a single individual. However, I've decided to back Stenson at 12/1 - other bookies have hime as a (more accurate) 8/1 chance. He is currently 6th in the Official World Golf Rankings and was 4th in the Euoropean OoM last year. Stenson is currently in great form (3rd in the Open and 4th in the US PGA).

http://www.europeantour.com/

Lock in Profits on Federer for Gand Slams



Those of you who are long term followers of my blog know that in Jan 08 I backed Federer at 11/2 to win no Grand Slam events (after he had lost the first Grand Slam). He has since lost the French Open and Wimbledon. I've now decided to lock in my profits by backing himn for the US Open at 3/1. I've done this at Boylesports who refund my bet if Djokovic win (a very reasonable cash back offer). The P&L for my combined bets are shown above.

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Bourdfais to be biggest improver - 66/1 1pt E/W vcbet.com


The Toro Rosso cars are performing well this weekend. Having made it into Q1, Bourdais has taken the opportunity to 'high fuel' his car. If/when a safety car is deployed, this will give him more strategic options. I have therefore backed him with at Victor Chandler at 66/1 (1pt E.W 1,2,3) from 10th on the grid to be the biggest improver.