Saturday, June 27, 2009

F1 2009 Championship - Mark Webber - 12pts win -33/1

After 8 of 17 races the standing are as follows:

01 Jenson Button 64
02 Rubens Barrichello 41
03 Sebastian Vettel 39
04 Mark Webber 35.5

(Trulli is next at 21.5)

I think the F1 Championship is now between the Brawn and the Red Bull Drivers. Red Bull Bull have made signficant progress with their car, as demonstrated by their 1-2 in the British Grand Prix. With less than half the season gone, it would not be impossible for one of the Red Bull drivers to overtake Button in the Championship (although clearly Button is still by far the most likely winner).

However, I'm very suprised to see the differnec in price between Vettel (10-3) and Webber (33-1). I've given a lot of thought and I really can't see why they are so different in price. I'd have made the book:

Button 1/3
Vettel 7/1
Webber 9/1
Barrichello 40/1

I therefore think Webber is great value at 33-1 (complements my 50-1 on Button and 125-1 on Barrichello). I've had to be imaginative how to get £300 on - I was restriceted at virtually all bookies to a few pounds. Fortunately, William Hill allowed me £3 max. online and £100 without question in cash in their shops. If you are going to cut off winning punters, at least try and do it consistently across all channels!

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

US Open - Michael Sim - 600/1

I think I have found a 'Black Swan' in Micheal Sim. He has had an oustanding record on the Nationwide Tour in 2009:

The fact he is playing on the Nationwide Tour means he has slipped under the radar, much like the Open winner Todd Hamilton who was similarly unfancied at 500-1 when playing on the Japanese Tour. I've had the following bets:

1pt Win 600-1 (Betfair
1.5 pts E/W 300-1 (Bluesq 1/3 1-5 / Boylesports 1/4 1-6)
4pts Win Top Australian 16-1 ... (Ogilvy is a massive danger for this bet)

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Queen Anne Stakes - Alexandros - 2pts - 10/1 - Betfred

The Godolphin/Frankie Dettori combination have had great succes in this race in the past (although they have a generally poor Ascot record). Godolphin have two runners in this race, Gladiatorus and Alexandros. Gladiatorus (partnered by Ajtebi) beat Alexandros at Nad Al Sheba and a repetition of this form will see Gladiatorus most likley win this race

This was an oustanding performance, but form at Nad Al Sheba is not certain to transfer to other tracks (and there is a possibility that Gladiatorus could 'bounce') . At 9/4, I'm therefore not backing Gladiatorus. I've instead backed Dettori's runner Alexandros (the Godolphin 'second string'). Alxendros was unlucky in the Lockinge (a key 'trial' for this race) when second to Virtual (Dettori lost his whip in the final furlonmg).

Alexandros is (wrongly in my opinion) seen as not much more than a top class handicapper. I think he is better than that and will not need much of a progression in ability to take this race (asuuming Gladiatorus does not show the same ability as at Nad Al Sheba). I have significant concerns about others in the race. Will Paco's Boy stay 1m on a straight track? - I think Paco's Boy is poor value at 7/2 having been beaten fairly and squarely in the Lockinge by Alexandros over 1m. Aqlaam will need to recover from a poor run in the Lockinge (when clearly something was amiss). If he does, he could be a massive danger - at 10/1 he is a reasonable price as well.

I've therefore had 2pts at 10/1 at Betfred on Alexandros.

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Kings Stand Stakes - Mythical Flight - 2pts - 25/1 - William Hill

Overseas raiders have an execllent record in the Kings Stand Stakes and are consistently underated. The Australian runner Scenic Blast has a great chance at 7/2 but, at a bigger price (25/1), I've backed Mythical Flight. In his last two races, this South African runner raced twice over 6f in the Far East. In these races he clearly looked like he would benefit from a drop back to 5f. Mythical Prince has a bit to find on the form, but 25/1 is a generous price.

Saturday, June 06, 2009

Epsom Derby - Golden Sword - 1pt E/W 50/1

I think Golden Sword is overpriced at 50/1. He ran an excellent trial, winning the Chester Vase. This proves he stays the Derby trip (1m 4f), a doubt for many of the other Derby runners. The consesus is he 'stole' the race from the runner up, which has detracted many from looking at the strict form of the race (which I believe is underated). The race was run in a quick time and the form was franked via the Oaks yesterday. He is likley to have a front running role (like in the Chester Vase) and could easily grab a place.

I tried to have 2pts E/W at Victor Chalder, but was limited to 1 pt E/W.... I guess it is only one of the biggest flat horses races in the world!

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Lay off Button/Brawn bets made with UK bookies.

Those who follow my blog will know I was heavily involved with Button/Brawn pre-season at 'fancy' prices after the testing at Jerez. I believe that the next 2 races (Turkey/UK) will suit the Ferrai & Red Bull teams so I am taking the opportunity to lock in the profit made on bets with UK bookies (bets I am confident will be paid out if they win). I've therefore had the follwoing bets:

Original UK bets:

2pts Brawn at 80/1 (Corals)
4 pts E/W Button at 40/1 (Corals), 1.5 pts E/W 40/1 Button (Boylesports), 1 pt Win Button at 40/1 (William Hill)
(all Max Bets allowed online)

Layoff bets - Brawn:

8 pts at 13/2 with Stan James for Brawn NOT to win the F1 Chmaionship (this was a special price quoted on request from me). (Max allowed).
Lay at 1.23 won Brawn at Betfair to win 80 pts is Brawn do NOT win (risk of 18 pts).

If Brawn Win (1/4 chance), I win 160-8-18=134 (=£3.35K)
If Brawn Lose (4/1 chance), I win 52+80-2=130 (=£3.25K)

Layoff bet - Button:

44 pts at 4/1 on Button with William Hill NOT to win F1 Championship (thsi bet iss availible online, a great price as the Betfaire lay price is 1.33)

If Button wins (1/4 chance), I win 260+55-44=271 (=£6.78K)
If Button loses (4/1 chance), I win 176-12=164 (=£4.1K)

I have not include the US bookmakers for certain reasons that will become clear ... the phrase 'papable error' is coming into play :(

Monday, June 01, 2009

O'Brien Derby Specials -First 4/First 5 in the Derby

The field has been confirmed for the Derby at the 5 day declaration stage and it as as follows (O'Brien horses in bold).

Fame And Glory 3-1

Sea The Stars 7-2
Rip Van Winkle 6-1
Gan Amhras 8-1
Black Bear Island 8-1
Masterofthehorse 14-1

Kite Wood 25-1
Age Of Aquarius 25-1
Crowded House 28-1
Golden Sword 33-1
South Easter 40-1
Montaff 50-1
Debussy 50-1

I think he has a real chance of at least having the first 4 home. (I could probably do some statistical analysis to prove it - any voulnteers?). I have therefore backed two possibilities (not mutually exclusive).

Aiden O'Brien to have the first 4 home - 1pt @ 20-1, 1 pt @ 28-1
Aiden O'Brien to have the fisrt 5 home - 1pt @ 50-1, 1 pt @ 125-1

(The lower prices are still avilible at (first 4), (first 5)).