Sunday, June 25, 2006

Wimbledon Mens - S. Grosjean (150-1) 3pts Win, Gonzalez (400-1) 1pt Win (Betfair), Agassi 250-1 (Totesport) 1pt Win

Federer is rightly the favourite for the Men's Chamionship. However, he has a tough draw in the first quarter and it would not be a massive shock if went out in an early round. For that reason, I'm swerving him at 1-2.

The 2nd and 4th quarters are both weak - I can't see it is very likely that the winner will come from either of these quarters. However, at 250-1 I'm having 1pt on Agassi to roll back the years... there are cetainly worse 250-1 shots (as short as 50-1 in a place)!

For my other bets, I'm concentrating on the 3rd quarter. This is a tough quarter containing both Hewitt and Roddick. However, I'm not convinced either are at their best at the moment, so I've selected as my main bet Grosjean at 150-1.

Grosjean has excellent Wimblenon form (two 1/4 finals and a semi-final in the past 3 years and is a more than fair price.)

I can't resist 1 pt on Gonzalez (who has a reasonable Wimbledon record) - he is a short as 50-1 at conventional bookmakers!

2pts Frank Lampard - Budweiser MoM - England v Ecuador - 9-1

The Budweiser MonM is typically given to the goalscorer in the match. With Carrick playing a holding role, Lampard and Gerarrd (especially Gerrard) will get forward more. I suspect that the Budweiser MoM will go to either Gerarrd (6-1) or Lampard (9-1) (if they score).

I'm having 2pts on Frank Lampard at 9-1 .... he won this award in an earlier game.

Saturday, June 24, 2006

6pt Win Sam Hornish 11-2 (Sporting Odds), 1pt 6-1 Dan Wheldon (Sports Interaction)

Hornish (11-2) and Wheldon (6-1) are both great prices to win the Suntrust Indy race tonight. Castroneves is too short ... his pole position may be (a little) false, with only one qualifying sesion

Both Hornish and WHeldon are suited by the track and I'd be suprised if one of them didn't the race.

Westmead Hawk to win 2007 Greyhound Derby - 201 - 4pts Win

If (and its a big if) Westmead HAwk enters the 2007 Greyhound Derby (and it is held at Wimbledon), 20-1 is going to look a very big price in a year's time.

I'm having 4pts win on Westmead Hawk to prove he is the greatest dog of all time (rather than 'just' an oustanding champion).

Sweden to progress to 1/4 finals. (World Cup) - 7/2 Betfair - 6 pts

Germany are the most likely to qualify for the quarter finals, but 7/2 is an insult to Sweden. Germany's form against top teams has been weak in the past 4 years and they were not paricularly impressive in the group stage.

Sweden have not been in great recent form either, however at 7/2 to progress further they have to be backed.

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Booze Allen Classic - Rich Beem - 1pts E/W 150/1

Rich Beem has a real liking for this course. He frequently does well on this course, despite having poor recent form. This seaosn he has bits and pieces of form (better than usual!) whch make him an excellent E/W chance at 150/1.

Monday, June 19, 2006

Majestic Missile - 1.5 pts win 25-1 3.10 Ascot

Majestic Missile is an underrated 5f sprinter... some solid performences last year means that the 25-1 is a more than fair price.

Ignore its run this year, when he was drawn badly and ran keen early. In addition, he was not harsly treated once it was clear he wasn't going to win.

Malinga - Man of teh Match - 2nd ODI - Sri Lanka v England 22-1 Bet365 - 2pts

Malinga is, I believe, still underrated. A 5 wicket haul will probably be enough to win MoM. This is well within the grasp of a talented bowler like Malinga.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Berdych to beat Federer - 8.25/1 Betfair - Garry Weber Open - 4pts

Berdych is a great bet at 8.25/1 to win the final of the Garry Weber Open. Federer has not been playing great in this tournament (he has been taken to 3 sets in 3 of the 4 matches) and this match is ripe for an upset to end Federe's 40 match unbeaten stretch on grass.

Berdych has the advantage of being one of the few palyers to have beaten Federer (in 2004) so will have the belief to win the match.

If Federer win's this tournament, it will be 4 wins in 4 years, but he has admitted he is both mentally and physically tired after a long season.

Allmendinger (20/1, 2pts E/W), Junqueira (16/1 2pts E/W), Clarke (66/1 0.5 pts E/W) - Portland Grand Prix, Champ Cars

I've added to my Di Matta bet (3th on Grid, 25-1 E/W) with the following at Stan James.

Allmendinger (20/1, 2pts E/W) (2nd on Grid)
Junqueira (16/1 2pts E/W) (1st on Grid)
Clarke (66/1 0.5 pts E/W) (6th on Grid)

I'm not sure what Stan James are doing, but they are plainly wrong. If you have any doubt, check other bookies prices e.g - Allmendinger 9/4! I'd be very disappointed if, at the very least one of the 4 drivers werer not placed (returning my stakes) and there is signficant upside scope.

I'd have more iff StanJames would have let me......

Update: The markets are still all over the place.... I'ved added 0.75 pts win on Paul Tracy (Stan James, 20-1 (7-2 at Sporting Odds!) and 0.5 pts win on Clarke 50/1 Sporting Odds (12/1 Stan James!). Just waiting for Bourdais to take out Wilson on the 1st corner!

2nd Update: SportsInteraction have joined in the fun... I've now had a further 0.5 pts E/W at 120/1 (yes, 120/1) on Dan Clarke.

Saturday, June 17, 2006

3.10 York Trafalgar Bay (2pts Win, 18.0) Pearly Wey, Trafalgar Bay 0.5 pts Reverse Exacta

Pearly Wey and Trafalgar Bay have what I believe to be the stronget (connected) form of the race. Pearly Wey is thought to have progressed well since their last meeting (hence his shorter price), but this is more than factored in. Trafalgar Way at 18.0 is a good price on Betfair.

Both horses tempt me, so I'm having a 0.5 pts Reverse Exacta.

Brazil v Australia - Australia to win in 90 mins - 16-1 - 2pts

Australia are too big at 16-1 to beat Brazil. Brazil were not impressive in their first match, and this game is ripe for a shock result. Australia play agressive football, which is the ideal way to play against Brazil.

My only concern is that Hiddink (Australia's talented manager) may field a 2nd strength side...

Update: I've added to this 2pts on Australia at 10-1 (Draw No Bet) at Bet365.

Colin Montgomerie - Sports Personality of the Year - 33-1 - 0.75

Monty is 7-1 for the US Open, but available at 33-1 for SPoTY. Unless England win the World Cup (and there is a star player), I think Monty will proabbly win SPoTY if he wins the US Open. [He also has chances in the final 2 Majors].

Therefore I'm having 0.75 pts @ 33-1 on SPoTY - I'd have more but the bookies will only allow me to have 'buttons'....

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Da Matta - Grand Prix of Portland - 2pts E/W - Bet365

This week has seen a merry-go-round in Champ Cars with the very experienced Da Matta leaving the back marker team Dale Coyne Racing to join one of the very top teams RuSPORT.

He is now with a top team and he loves Portland - winning the last 2 times he has visited - last year and in his championship winning year of 2002 (was in F1 during 2003 and 2004). I'm having 2 points Each Way with Bet365 at the outstanding 25-1 - he should be single figures.

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Marquez - 1pts First, 1pt Last Goal scorer. Mexico v Iran

Mexico central defender Marquez has an excellent goal scoring record. His is great value at a generally available 25-1. I;m placing the bet with Paddy Power who return stakes if the last goal is a headed goal.

Saturday, June 10, 2006

Olof Mellberg - Fisrt Goalscorer - 1pt E/W 40-1 Sweden v Trinidad and Tobago

Sweden are strong favourites to win this game. They haven;t been in great form lately, but T/T are one of the weakest teams in the World Cup.

Defender Olaf Mellberg could exploit any weaknesses in the Trinidad and Tobago defence (crucially missing Marvin Andrews).

I'm having 1pts E/W at Totesport at 40-1 (1/3 1.2.3)

John Terry - First/Last Goal Scorer, Anytime Goal Scorer - England v Paraguay

Paraguay are weak at pieces (the centre backs are relatively short), so I've selected John Terry to exploit this. There are 2 great prices available.

2pts First Goal Scorer (Free Last Goal Scorer bet) 18-1 -Totesport.
2pts Anytime Goal Scorer 11/1 - Interwetten.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

World Cup 2006 Preview


I think Spain are underrated at 18-1 (8pts win). Known as underachievers, I think they will beta Brail in the ¼ finals and go onto win the trophy.

It is quite usual for outsiders to reach the semi-finals. At bigger prices I fancy at least one of Serbia and Montenegro/Ivory Cost to qualify from the Group C ‘Group of Death’. Consequently
I’ve backed Serbia and Montenegro (100-1, ¼ and Ivory Cost (90-1, ¼ (both
2pts E/W).

Top Goalscorer

I’ve already posted Toni (Italy) (2pts E/W 33-1) and Burgetti (2pts E/W) 66-1. I am adding to that 2pts E/W on Frei (Switzerland). All are the main goal scorers for their countries and have excellent place chances.

Group Results

As mentioned above, I think Group C is a really competitive Group., and think the prices on the

4 teams should be much closer than they are. I am therefore having 2pts on the Serbia and Montenegro/Ivory Cost Dual Forecast (33/1).

At more speculative odds, I’m having ½ pt 100-1 on Argentina to score zero points.

Top Team Goalscorer

With Rooney not playing until after the Group games, David Beckham has a great chance of scoring most England Goals. I’ve had 2pts at 16-1 on this outcome.

Birchall could play in an advanced midfield role for Trinidad and Tobago and is a big price alternative to current leading scorer John. I think Yorke is way to short in this market. I’m having 2pts at 28-1.

A similar statement can be made about Bresciano for Austrila – he is a more than fair price at 12-1. I’m having 2pts on this.

Top Pairs Goalscorers

Both the Swedish pairs (22-1) and Mexico pairs (33-1) look good outsiders in this market, I’m having 2pts on each.


I can’t resist 4pts on Owen to score the 1st England Headed goal (5-1).

Casillas (Spain) is a great keeper and, like Oliver Khan last time, can win the ‘Golden Ball’ player of the tournament. I’ve had 2pts at 150-1.

In all, a total investment of 46.5 points… approximately ½ my profits from this year!