Monday, February 27, 2006

Hereford v Stevenage - Obinna 2pts - 1st Goal Scorer 16-1 (Bluesq)

There is a strong possibility that ex Reading striker Eric Obinna will play up front for Stevenage. If that is the case, the (standout) 16-1 at Bluesq will look a long price.... (he is as short as 15/2 at

Update: Obinna didn't play before a goal was scored, so stakes returned. Bluesq had cut him into 11-1!

Monfils - 1.5 pts E/W 20-1 - Tennis Channel Open

Monfils has shown excellent form this year at Doha and Marseille. He has a kind draw and first serious test will be Murray/Kiefer in the qurater finals. The 20/1 could look generous in 7 days time...

1pt E/W 80-1 Ali Carter - Snooker Welsh Open

O'Sullivan is a worthy favourite, so it make sense either to back him or an E/W in the other half of the draw. Given you can never be guaranteed which O'Sullivan with 'turn up', my preference is for an each way shot from the opposite half.

There are several possibilities, but I am backing Ali Carter.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

13-2 J P McManus winner of the Grand National - 4pts - Paddy Power

JP has the following horses entered for the National

Clan Royal - 7-1
Innox - 16-1
First Gold - 66-1
Risk Accessor - 66-1
Sport the Difference - 66-1
Ground Ball - 100-1

Paddy Power go 13-2 one of these horses wins (and any other JP horses I have missed!)

I am particularly keen on Clan Royal and Innox, both of which I think have a reasonable chance. This has to be value... Labrokes go 7-2 that one of these wins.

L'Ami - 1pt 25/1 E/W Cheltenham Gold Cup

I was impressed with L'Ami's run today in the Racing Post Chase. As expected he has cotracted in price at all UK Bookmaklers to (a top priced) 16/1.

Therefore, I'm please to be able to back the horse at an (unchanged) price of 25/1 at US Bookmakers (global markets, don't you love them!).

This will be the final horse in my portfolio for the Gold Cup

- One Knight - 40/1
- Cornish Rebel - 33/1
- L'Ami - 25/1

All E/W... hope the Newbury Henessy form holds up.....

France v Italy - 1st Try scorer, Any Italian, (7-1), Lay France at 1.03 on Betfair.

Which France side will turn up? Even within games they have played both outsanding and hopeless Rugby. The bookies haven;t woroken up the the strength of the Italian side (compared to previosu sides). They are defensively very well organised and can score 1-2 tries per game.

I considered Italy 'on the handicap', but have instead decided on a different strategy:

- 2pts An Italian being 1st Tryscorer (7-1 generally)
- 2pts lay of France @ 1.03 (Betfair)... if Italy look like they have a reasoanble chance of winning at any stage (e.g become odds against) I may well lock in a profit... I'll post as an update any trades I mnake during the match.

Iris Bleu - 2pts win, Racing Post Chase - 22-1

Iris Bleau has one over this course/distance and will be suited by the soft groun. Martin Pipe is returning to form, so although this is a competitive race (all the markets leaders have chances), the 22/1 looks more than fair.

I was planning to go 1pt E.W but there has been a withdrawl, leaving 15 runners.

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Arjan de Zeeuw - 1st Goalscorer - Carling Cup final at 50/1 (Hills - 1/2 1,2,3)

I'm having 1pt E/W on Arjan de Zeeuw to score the first goal in Carling Cup final at 50/1 (Hills - 1/2 1,2,3). He has been close to scoring on a couple of occasions recently and Man Utd. look vulnerable in defence to headed goals.

Millenium Royal - Rendelsham Hurdle - 1pt E/W 16-1

I think this is a great E/W bet (1/5 1,2,3) at not sure if they are going to pay me out on 3 places though! Doumen is proably gearing his campaign to the Stayers Hurdle, but Millenium Royal may still be fit enough.

There are enough doubts about the others horses for this to be a fine bet - I'm having 1pt E/W.

Rollins - Chrysler Classic 2pt win - 18-1

John Rollins has the strongest recent form and should be clear favourite for this tournamnet (most top players are at the WGC). The generally availible 18-1is more than fair... just disappointed I missed the 25-1 earlier in the week.

I'm having 2pts win.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

WGC - 4 against the field (One per Quarter)

I'm having 1 pt win on each of the following, in order of confidence (they are in separate quarters):

Chris DiMarco - 33/1
Nick O'Hern - 66/1
David Toms - 25/1
Darren Clarke - 33/1

Just need one to win!

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Champions League, 4 Timer (Day 1) - 2pts @ 20/1

I've placed a 4 timer on the following results:

Real Madrid to beat Arsenal
Liverpool to beat Benfica
Bayern Munich to beat Milan
PSV to beat Lyon

This pays approx. 20-1... not a certainty by any means. I've gone with the teams in form...

Monday, February 20, 2006

Peter Cavanagh - 1st Goal Scorer - 25/1 Accrington Stanley

Peter Cavangh has a strong goal scoring record (primarily via penalties.) The 25-1 at Paddy Power/Stan James is more then fair for 1st goalscorer.

Blackwell to sparkle! (Top Batsman/Bowler)

Blackwell may well make a signficant contribution to England's peformance v India (3 Tests). The fact there are only 3 tests also means that a realtive outsider is more likley to do well on top batsman/bowler markets.

I having 1pt win (20/1) at Totesport for 'Top England Bowler' and 1pt E/W (40/1) at Ladbrokes 'Top England Bowler.

Memphis Open - Max Miryni - 1pt E/W 33-1

Miryni is in the opposite side of the draw from market leaders Roddick and Haas, and therefore is E/W value... his first 2 matches are relatively easy so he should make it to the last 8.

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Position after 8 weeks:

Position after 8 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 133
Points returned on settled bets= 157

Profit on settled bets = 24 pts/15%... not as much as I would like, but I've missed a couple of big prices winners in Football (Eagle (Watford) 1st Goal Scorer, 25-1) & Golf (Oberholser, Pebble Beach 33/1) , mainly due to work pressure.... which would have made a big difference to my profit level.

Points staked on unsettled bets = 33.5

Cheltenham is looking more and more favourable. I'd be very disappointed if I didn't finish significantly ahead.

Chelsea v Colchester - Robert Huth first/last goalscorer - 33-1

Robert Huth is a generous 33-1 for first/last goalscorer with William Hill. In a weakend Chelsea side he is playng centre back and will come up for set plays such as corners... likely to play a similar role to John Terry (in his place) in these situations.

There is even a possibity that at the end of the match, if Chelsea are drawing, that Huth will be moved up front, making the last goal scorer part of this bet particularly good value.

I'm having 1pt on each.

Tottenham v Wigan - Ledley King - 1st/2nd Goal Scorer - 25/1 - Double Whammy!

With 3 goals this season (all 1st goals!), Ledley King is a good bet @ 33-1 for 1st Goal Scorer. However, take the 25-1 at Skybet where they have a special offer on 'Skybet Live' matches where they payout on both 1st and 2nd goal scorer.

I'm having 1pt @ 25/1

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Newcastle v Southampton - 1st Goal Scorer - Emre - 16-1 2pts

Emre has looked dangerous in recent matches and is a more than fair price at 16-1 (Betfred) to score the first goal (Newcastle are heavy favs. todo this). I'm having 2pts.

Liverpool v Man Utd - 1st Goal Scorer (Ronaldo), 1st Booking (Crouch)

Ronaldo has scored 7 goals form 17 games this season and his fair value @ 12-1 with William Hill for 1st goalscorer. Crouch is overpriced @ 33-1 for 1st booking (4 fro 20 this seaon). He is 12-1with Ladbrokes, the other firm to have priced up this martket.

I'm having 2pts on Ronaldo (1st Goal) and 1pt on Crouch (1st Booking)

Whereareyounow - 3.25 Uttoxeter 20/1 - 2pts win

Whareareyounow won this race last year off a 4lb higher mark, therefore the course/distance suits. He shoudl be able to handle the 'heavy' ground (he has won on soft). He has been out of form recently, but, if he returns to form he has a good chance of winning this.

This is a definte win bet (not each way) as there are 15 runners and he will probably either finish first or last! I'm having 2pts win.

Brentford E/W @ 400-1 FA Cup

'Mad Dog' Martin Allen's Brentford have a reasonable chance of making the next round by knocking out Charlton. If this happens, and they get a home draw in the next round against a weak premiership team, 200-1 to make the final will look big.

Speculative even by my standards (!), but I'm having 0.5 pts E/W @ 400-1.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Nissan Open - Sabbatini 1pt E/W 40-1

Sabbatini is in great form this year (not out of top 20 in 5 tournaments including 2 2nds). He also has course form having finished 2nd 4 years ago (and 2 other top 15 finishes).

I'm having 1pt E/W at the generally availible 40-1.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Royal and Sun Alliance Chase - Star de Mohaison 2pt E/W 25/1

Paul Nicholl's Star de Mohaison is an great price at 25-1 for the Royal and Sunalliance Novice Chase. I would make him nearer a 10-1 chance. He has similar form level to 'The Listener' who is 8-1. He jumps well, likes good ground and will stay the 3m at Cheltenham.

Liverpool v Arsenal - Adebayor 1st/2nd goalscorer

Skybet continue to do their double whammy - 1st goalscorer and they also pay out on 2nd goalscorer if you lose with the first. I'm backing Arsenal striker Adebayor @ 10-1 (I'm having 2pts.)

Monday, February 13, 2006

West Ham v Birmingham - Ferdinad 1st/2nd Goalscorer

Skybet continue to do their double whammy - 1st goalscorer and they also pay out on 2nd goalscorer if you lose with the first. A stunning offer. I considered Dean Ashton at 4-1 and Anton Ferdinard at 33-1; both great bets - but I am having 1 point on Anton at 33-1.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

Next England Manager - Mclaren, 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

I think that Mclaren has a strong chance of being the next England Manager for the following reasons:

- English, FA have stated their preference for an English manager
- European/International experience
- Involved in FA setup - sits on the bench during matches , was originally lined up for the post.

The new 4 year contract could be seen as a negative, but I don't see it as a barrier- it will just ensure that Boro get adequate compensation.

I thnk the 33-1 @ Ladbrokes is more than fair, (20-1 at Betfair). I'm having 2pts win.

Man City v Chartlton - 1st/2nd Goal Scorer - Alberto Reira

Skybet are top priced at 14-1 for Reira (on loan from Espanyol) to score the 1st goal. That on it's own is a good bet. Playing on the left wing, he has scored 1 goal in his fisrt 4 apperances.

However, what makes this a great value bet is the fact that Skybet will pay out on both 1st and 2nd goal scorer! I'm having 2pts on Reira for 1st/2nd goalscore @ 14-1.

Wales v Scotland - 1st Tryscorer S. Williams/C. Charvis

S. Williams (Wales) has an oustanding trscoring record (25 tries from 34 caps). He is availible at 12-1 for 1st tryscorer with Stan James, but I am taking the 11-1 (2pts) at Paddy Power where you get your stke refunded if either no. 13 scores the fisrt try (Luscombe or Di Rollo).

Also value for 1st try scorer is C. Charvis with 20 tries from 81 caps. He is avilible at 33-1 but I am taking the 25-1 (1pt) at Paddy Power (for the above reason).

Sunderland v Tottenham - 1st/2nd Goal Scorer - King 20/1 (Skybet)

With 3 goals this season (all 1st goals!), Ledley King is a good bet @ 33-1 for 1st Goal Scorer. However, take the 20-1 at Skybet where they have a special offer on 'Skybet Live' matches where they payout on both 1st and 2nd goal scorer.

I'm having 2pts @ 20/1... just wish Skybet hadn't been shortest price!

Saturday, February 11, 2006

England v Italy - Charlie Hodgson - First/Last Tryscorer - 25/1 Stan James

Charlie Hodgson has scored 5 tries from 23 games and is a reasonable price at 25-1 with Stan James to be first/last try scorer. I'm having 1pt on each outcome.

First Bolton Goalscorer - Jaidi - Arsenal v Bolton - 20/1

With the absence on Sol Campbell, Arsenal could be weak at set pieces. This gives an opportunity for centre back Jaidi to pick up a goal. He has scored 2 goals this season, and I'm backing him (2pts) at 20-1 at Paddy Power.

Update: Jaidi didn't play so stake returned on this.

Sunday, February 05, 2006

1st Touchdown - Matt Hasselbeck 40/1 - Superbowl

Seattle QB Hasselbeck has a better than 40/1 chance of scoring the first touchdown. I;m having 2 pts with bet365 @ 40/1 on this.....

Chelsea v Liverpool - First/Last Booking - Crouch 33-1

Crouch has picked up 4 booking this season and is overpriced at 33-1 to get the first/last booking today with Betdirect... he is 11-1 and 12-1 with the 2 other bookmakers pricing up this market.

I'm having 0.5 on first and last booking.

Valbon, 1st Tryscorer - 16-1 - France v Scotland

France are most likely to score the 1st try. Valbon (France) has a reasonably strong tryscoring record and is a fair price at 16-1 (Skybet). This complements my 'Top Tryscorer' season bet of Nyanga.

I'm having 1pt win on Valbon, 1st Tryscorer.

Position after 6 weeks

Position after 6 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 105
Points returned on settled bets= 105
Profit on settled bets = 0%

No winners in 2 weeks has seen me return all my profits.

Disappointing, but looking back on the bets, most were good value (i.e. longer prices than they should have been). The only regrets I have is missing out on some Boxing bets (last weekend) and Rugby first tryscoerer bets (this weekend), where I would have had good priced winners!

Points staked on unsettled bets = 29.5

These antepost bets are looking increasingly good.. all are shorter prices than when I placed the bets.... Cheltenham is looking important for me!

Sh Boom - 3.10 Sandown - 33-1

The course/disance will suit Sh Boom for this Sandown Handicap Hurdle. The handicapper is starting to be more lenient with him so I think he has a fair chance.

I'm having 1pt win @ 33-1 (generally availible).

Man Utd v Fulham - 1st Booking - Van Nisterooy (25/1), Ronaldo (28/1)

Only one bookmaker has opened a market on this, Paddypower. I'm convinced they have priced this up wrong. Given their season no. of cards, Ronaldo should be one of the favourites and Van Nistlerooy should be mid priced in the market.

Instead, both are outsiders... Ronaldo (25-1), Van Nistelrooy (28-1). My only worry is that Van Nistelrooy seams to have cleaned up his act recently.... has Alex had a word?

I'm having 2pts win on each.

Six Nations - Top Tournament Try Scorer - Nyanga @ 50-1 E/W

I expect that approx 4 tries will probably be enough to win top tryscorer. I'm concentrating on French players (as the outright favs. for the tournament). I've selected Nyanga @ 50-1 (generally), 2pts E/W. A bit speculative (2 tries in 14 games)......

N.B. Apologies for the lateness of these (and subesquent posts... there was a problem withh yesterday which meant I was unable to post my bets). Fortunately the 50-1 is still availible.