Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Barclays - Vijay Singh - 2pts E/W - 40/1

Backing at new course (Liberty National) is a bit of a lottery, but there are good reasons to think Vijay Singh coudl do well this week. Liberty National is said to be similar to Whistling Straits where Vijay Singh won the USPGA in 2004. He has decent recent form (6th in the Colonial, 7th in the AT&T, 16th in the USPGA). I'm having a speculative 2pts E/W at 40-1.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

5th Ashes Test to finish in 3rd Session Sunday - 7-1 - 1pt Ladbrokes

I think Ladbrokes have seriously mis-judged the price on the 5th Test ending today in the 3rd (final) seession. With possible rain tomorrow, England will be as keen as possible to wrap up the test (and series) today. Hopefully Swann can make serious inroads into the Aussies. I'd make a finish today in the 3rd session a 5/2 chance. Unfortuntaley, Ladbrokes have only allowed me 1pt (£25) at 7/1 - I tried to have 4 pts (£100). Disappointingly, bet limits at bookies are becoming a fairly common occurence for me, and no other bookie has this market open.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Notts County v Dagenham & Redbridge - Dagenham to win - 9/2 - 4pts

Since backing Notts County at 10/1 for the Divison 2 Title pre-season, I've taken a lot closer interest in Divison 2. Notts County are now 7/4 chances, a price which I think is fa too short - I;d make them at least a 5/1 chance. Their opening two wins were against weak teams (Bradford and Macclesfield) and defeat away at Chesterfield mid week showed they should never be such short price for this divison. The only reason they are tis price is the large liabilities the bookies have, having been backed at all rates down from 33/1. Unfortunately, there is little liquidity at Betfair to lay them, so I have taken an alternative approach.

I think Dagenham are too long a price for the Divion 2 at 18/1 at Coral. I'm currently considering backing them outright for the divison, but I'm nervous what Notts Cunty could do in the transfer market mid season. While I make a final decsion this morning, I've backed them at 9/2 away at Notts County today. Dagenham have made an execllent start, winning all three games. Manager John Still has made some astute pre-season purchases and maanged to hold on to (some) of the key players.

The generally availible 9/2 on Dagenham today is too big (it was 5/1 yesterday) - I'd make it a 5/2 chance.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Solheim Cup - 8pts win - Europe - 9/2

The results (with locations) are the Solheim Cup are as follows:

1990 - USA - USA 11.5 Europe 4.5
1992 - Europe - Europe 11.5 USA 6.5
1994 - USA - USA 13 Europe 7
1996 - Europe - USA 17 Europe 11
1998 - USA - USA 16 Europe 12
2000 - Europe - Europe 14.5 USA 11.5
2002 - USA - USA 15.5 Europe 12.5
2003 - Europe - Europe 17.5 USA 10.5
2005 - USA - USA 15.5 Europe 12.5
2007 - Europe - USA 15 Europe 12

At first glance, it looks like USA are highly likley to win, having won all 5 events on their soil. However, I think this year could be much closer. Although USA have the highest ranked players, there is only really a signficant diffenece betwen the teams for the players ranked 9-12. These lower ranked players will only play on Day 3 in the singles. The players ranked 1-8 are much closer in ranking and ability and these will be the players will play the 4ball/4somes on Friday/Saturday. The European players also have better recent form.

European golfers tend to overachieve in matchplay as

- it is a not so common format in the US so Europeans have more experience
- Eurpoeans typiclaly have a better team spirit

I think the Europeans will take a lead into the singles on Sunday (when it may make sense to lay them), and may hold on. I'd make them a 2/1 chane to win this event.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Premiership - Stadium with Most Goals - Emirates - Skybet - 9/1 - 4 pts

Skybet have also opened a market on which Premiership ground will have the most goals and have priced the Emirates at 9/1. Nothing has significantly changed from my analysis 2 days ago so I've 'topped' up my intial 2 pts at Boylesports with a further 4 pts at Skybet (I tried to have a further 8pts, but was restricted).

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Mens 100m - Tyson Gay - 2pts 16-1

Usain Bolt is a truly awesome athlete, but in what I think is a two horse race I can't resist backing Tyson Gay at 16/1. He ran 9.77 last month in Rome and if he gets a fast start (as expected) there is a chance he will hold off Bolt. Bolt ran 9.69 in the Olympics, but has 'only' run similar times to Tyson Gay this year (post car accident). I would make Gay a 10/1 chance (at most), hence I'm having 2pts at 16/1 on him.

Paula Radcliffe - SPOTY 2009 - 4pts - 66/1 - Ladbrokes

Paula Radcliffe has just won the New York Half Marathon. Participation in the World Championship Marathon is not confirmed, but I think likely. I have had a further 4pts @ 66-1 on her for SPOTY (to go with my 50-1 on Ennis and 200-1 on Daley). My complete is thus:

8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 28/1)

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Premiership - Stadium with Most Goals - Emirates - Boylesports - 9/1 - 4 pts

The record for the Premiership Ground with the most goals is as follows:

2008-2009 Hawthorns
2007-2008 White Hart Lane
2006-2007 Emirates
2005-2006 Highbury
2004-2005 Highbury
2003-2004 White Hart Lane
2002-2003 Highbury
2001-2002 Highbury
2000-2001 Stamford Bridge
1999-2000 Old Trafford

I have highligted the Arsneal grounds - they have had the most goals 5 of the last 10 years. Wenger has not changed his attacking philosophy in teh opast 10 years so I don't think there is any reason why the Emirates shoudln't be strong favourite. I think the 9/1 on the Emirates seeing the most goals is excellent value.

I tried to have 10 pts on the Emirates at 9/1, but was restricted to 2 pts.

Premiership - First Manager to leave position - David Moyes - 50/1 (1pt), 40/1 (4pts)

David Moyes has had a very sucessfull time as manager at Everton and is highly rated by Chairman Bill Kenwright. However, the Lescott saga could have significant repurcussions. Moyes has made it clear that he doesn't want Lescott to leave. At the Press conferecne yesterday, he made it obvious this is not simply a negotiating strategy to ensure the best possible price is obtained for Lescott.

If Moyes is force to sell Lescott by Everton (unlikely, but possible if Man City make a 'stupid offer') I think Moyes' comments yesterday could make his position untenable. He coudl leave on a 'high' and wait until another high profile job position comes availible (Man Utd?). This is all likley to played out in the next 2 weeks before the transfer window ends, which means is Moyes does levae he will very likely be the first Premieship Manager to do so.

Victor Chandler go 50/1 that he is the first Premieship Manager top leave. I tried to have 4pts, but was limited to 1pt. therfore, to ensure I have the same return, I have had another 4 pts at Coral at 40/1. Interestingly, this outcome is as short as 14/1 at other bookies... I think this is a much more accurate price.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

USPGA - Phil Mickleson - 25-1 - 4 pts E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

I'm suprised to see Phil Mickleson 25/1 for the USPGA. He had a poor week last week, finishing 58th at Bridgetone. However, it was a similar scenario before the Masters and US Open this year. In both these Majors, he used the immediately proceeding tournmanet as a 'warm up' event (MC Shell Houston, 59th St. Jude) before going onto good finishes in the Majors (5th in the Masters, 2nd in the US Open).

A previous winner im 2005, Mickleson is well suited by this long course and can demonstrate the old adage that while form is tempoarary, class is permanent. There certainly wouldn't be a more popular winner.

Sunday, August 09, 2009

NASCAR - Watkins Glen - Tony Stewart - 7/1 - 4pts win

Tony Stewart has had a great season so far (leading the championship) and has a strong record at Watkins Glen (a road course) (numbers indicated qulaifying position).

08/10/08 Kyle Busch 1 Toyota
08/12/07 Tony Stewart 5 Chevrolet
08/13/06 Kevin Harvick 7 Chevrolet
08/14/05 Tony Stewart 1 Chevrolet
08/15/04 Tony Stewart 4 Chevrolet
08/10/03 Robby Gordon 14 Chevrolet
08/11/02 Tony Stewart 3 Pontiac

He qualified 13th for this race, but that should not cause a major problem. I'd make him a 4/1 chance for this race.

17/2 is availible at Paddy Power, but like Bluesq, thay have limited me to 'buttons'. The 4pts has been placed at Centebet (looks like I will be increasingly using overseas bookmakers).

SPOTY (Bet #3) - Paula Radcliffe - 66/1 Coral - 4pts

I've tried to restrict the number of bets I'm having on SPOTY 2009, but I can't resist having a third bet. The World Athletics Championships in Berlin is a week away and Radcliffe has yet to make a final decision on whether she is fit enough to take part in the Marathon. If she does take part and win this event (a big if), she will be one of the favourites for SPOTY 2009. I think the uncertainty on her (healthy) participation is more than offset by the 66/1 that is availible for SPOTY 2009.

Complete Portfolio

Jessica Ennnis - 8pts - 50/1 (now 11/1)
Tom Daley - 2pts - 200/1 (now 33/1)
Paul Radcliffe - 4pts - 66/1

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

WGC Bridgestone Preview

Given his record in WGC events (15 from 28), Tiger Woods has an obvious chance of winning this event. His record at this course (Firestone) is 7 wins from 10 events. However, at a best priced 7/4, the bookies are only offering a fair price. He was a similar price last week against a much weaker field, and I am yet to be convinced he is back to his best form. His driving is still not accurate and any wayward drives will be punished here.

With so much taken out of the book, it is possible to back bigger priced runners with excellent chances. The two I have selected against the field are Davis Love III (80/1) and Angel Cabrera (100/1).

Davis Love has an great record in this event - I have made good profits backing him here before (as long term readers of my blog will know!). His recent record is T6th 2007, T4th 2006, T4th 2004, 3rd 2003 (he didn't play last year). He has had decent form this year, playing well on courses where he has previously had success.

Angel Cabrera also has a good record at this course (=4th in 2004 and 2006) and showed at Turnberry when finishing 24th that he is back on form. 100/1 for a recent Major winner (Masters 2009) is an insult - he has a realistic chance of winning this event.

I have had 2pst E/W on both at 1/4 first 5 place terms. N.B. The 80/1 is still availible on Davis Love, but the best you can currently get on Cabrera is 80/1.

Sunday, August 02, 2009

Australia to win 3rd Test - 25/1 - 4pts (Betfair)

With good weather forecast for the 4th and 5th Days of the 2rd Test, I think a result is a definite possibility. I considered laying the draw at 1.16, but instead have opted for backing Austrlia at 25/1.

Australia are 1-0 down in the series and they may take a chance with a challenging declaration early on Day 5. The weather looks good for day 4/5, so there are plenty of overs left....(although there is probably a delayed start today, the overs should be made up). The main concern re: the draw is an early finish tomrorow due to bad light.

Of course England could slowly grind out a large total today and this bet is going to look very silly...