Sunday, July 30, 2006

San Jose GP - Dan Clarke 1pt E.W 50-1

Dan Clarke has looked 'pacy' in both practice & qualifying and has a great chance of finishing in the top 3. He would need a multiple collision (or something similar) in front of him to win but, with Tracy and Bourdais, this is not out of the question.

Saturday, July 29, 2006

2pts Double @ Ascot - Mine (3.45) (6-1), Hearts Cry (4.20) (3-1)

I beliove that Mine and Hearts Cry both have solid chances... so it's a 2pt double for me.

Sunday, July 23, 2006

World Matchplay Darts - Barrie Bates - 1pts E/W - 80-1

Taylor has a tough draw (especially in the 2nd round). Darts Man-of-the-moment Barrie Bates has a chance of upsetting the odds at a generally availible 80-1. This up and coming player has shown execllent form, not least recently in a final against the (absent) Barneveld.

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Aston Villa -- Next Manger - Analysis

I'm having the following 4 bets on the next Aston Villa Manager, all at BetDirect

Graham Souness (50/1) - 2pts
Mick McCarthy (50/1) - 1pt
Roy Aikten (33/1) - 1pt
Andy Gray (500/1) - 0.5 pts

My main bet is on Graham Souness - he's got Premiershp experience, a good relationship with Doug Ellis, is a 'big name' and would be seen as a 'strong hand' to bring discpline to a out of control dresing room. I personally think it would be a disasterous appointment, but that is irrelevant.

My next bet is on Roy Aitken - 33/1 is a great price on a caretaker manager who has made it clear that he would take the job. If Doug Ellis striggles to fill the position before the start of teh year (and Aitken makes a good start to the season), he could get the job permanently.

I can't resist 0.5 pst on Andy Gray at 500/1... it would take a lot to make him come back into football management but Aston Villa is perhaps the only club that might be able to persuade him.

For the record, I think the fisrt 3 ion the betting (Curbishley, O'Neill and Cownans are all lays). Curbishly is very shgort at a top priced 6/4, I woudl be vey suprised if O'Neill took it (5/1)). Surely is they were considering an internal appointment. they would have made Cowans the Caretaker manager.

Indy Racing - Dan Wheldon (5/1) 4pts Win, Sam Hornish (4/1) 1pts win

Noting has changed my mind that the 2 best drivers by a considerable margin in Indy Racing are Dan Wheldon and Sam Hornish.

The 5/1 anbd 4/1 respectively are both great prices.... I;m having my main bet on Dan Wheldon to end his unlucky run and a cover bet on Sam Hornish.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

British Open - Romero - 400/1 (E.W 1/4 odds) 1pt E.W 1-7 Places

The British Open has a record of outsiders winning and being placed. An outsider I like is Romero who had an eye catching performance in last weeks tourney. He looked calm under pressure and I can see him creeping into a top 7 place. (Jennings are the bookie who has these generous terms.)

The Argentinian's handful of previous European tour rounds this year have been erratic, he will just need to string 4 good rounds together!

Update: As this is my gambling log, a note I managed to lose 5pts trading on the golf over the weekend. Always difficult to make a profir when the fist bet you lay is 4pts on Toger Woods at 5-1 (to payout 20 pts)!

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Ferrari - F1 Constructors Championship - 10pts Win - 6/1

Halfway through the season, the Constructors standings are as follows:

Renault - 131
Ferrari - 105

... and the rest nowhere.

With a strong performance at Renaults 'home track' in qualifying in France, Ferrari appear that they may have the 'momentum' behind them with improved performance with the Bridgesone tyers. The fact this is realted to tyres (rather than underfuelingt) is reinforced by the performance of the Bridgestone shod Toyotas.

In addition, this is a good way to get with Massa who is underrated as a driver (and is handicapped by being the No .2 at Ferrari).

If Ferrari go well on raceday, the 6/1 quotes (for what is a 2 horse race) will have long since disappeared. (The 6/1 is only available at Sports Interaction, all other bokies go 5/1 which is a more than fair price as well.)

Friday/Saturday Racing Bets (for the record).

As part of the reason for this blog is my own recods, detailed below are my bets from Friday/Saturday (and results):

Friday - Newmarket - July Cup

Iffraaj - 1 pt win (8/1) (2nd)
Ashdown Express - 1pt E/W (40/1) (3rd)
La Cucaracha - 2pts (10/1) (unplaced)

Saturday - York

3.20 - Lost Soldier Three - 2 pts Win (8/1) (3rd)
3.50 - John Smiths Cup - Bustan - 1pt Win (100/1) (6th)

Saturday, July 15, 2006

Indy Racing - Firestone Indy 200 - Dan Wheldon - 4pts win 9/2

I belive Dan Wheldon and Sam Hornish should be the strong favourites for the Firestone Indy 200 tonight. They are the front 2 on the grid, and have been the strongest drivers in recent races.

Stan James seem to have priced the market up correctly going 5/2 the pair. However, Sporting Odds have made Dan Wheldon a 9/2 - this is a more tha fair price, I'm having 4 pts win.

Sunday, July 09, 2006

World Cup Final - Cannavaro to shine in high scoring thriller.

I belive that Cannavaro has been the best player in the tournament. I've had 2pts win (Ladbrokes) on Cannavaro to win the Golden Ball at 6-1 (I wanted 4pts, but they would only allow me 2 pts). His only danger is Zidane who, at 4-7, is too short. N.B This prcie has since gone.

3 out of 4 Italian defenders have scored so far. Therefore, in the likley absence of Gilardino, I'm having 1pt on Cannavaro at 40/1 to score the first goal. I've placed this at Jennings who return states if the match finishes 0-0. As it my first bet with them, they are also giving me the same (free) 1pt on Cannavaro at 40/1 last goalscorer.

Everone thinks that with 2 stromg defences this will be a low scoring match. Although this is perefectly possible, there is the possibility of an early goal which could open up the match. I've therefore had 4pts on +4.5 goals at 20.0 on Betfair (which a view to (potentially) trading out if there are 2-3 early goals.)

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Williams v Skelton - Skelton to win Rds. 9-12 - 40-1 each rd.

Williams v Skelton is likely to be a close bout. Williams won last time on points, however it was a close decison. Typically, these fights finish inside the diatnce. Therefore it is a surpise to see the pts. decisions to be as short as 3-1 for each fighter.

Either fighter has the capcity to win this fight. Since the last fight, Williams has 'bulked up' and Skelton has had boxing 'lessons'. It is this additional weight for Williams that I believe could be his undoing. As the fight progresses, I think Williams' boxing skills will mean that he is ahead on pts. This will mean that Skelton will go forward and a Williams could suffciently tire to not get up from a big punch.

In addition, Williamns is never to be trusted at short prices due to his fragil mental state (remember Sproke?).

I'm having 1pt @ 40-1 on Skelton to win in each of the last 4 rds.

Saturday Racing bets...

..........are as follows:

Coral Eclipse 3.15 Sandown

- 1 pt E/W - Royal Alchmeist - 250-1 (!)
- 1 pt E/W - Notable Guest - 25-1

- 2pt Win 2.05 Sandown - The Tatling - 10-1
- 2pt Win 2.35 Sandown Capable Guest - 12-1
- 2pts Win - 3.30 Haydock - Star of Light - 8-1

1pt double The Tatling/Star of Light

Full logic to follow after....

Sunday, July 02, 2006

Update after 6 months. - 27.9% profit on turnover.

Position after 6 months

Points staked on settled bets = 454
Points returned on settled bets= 581
Profit on settled bets = 27.9 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 40.5

A unprofitable World Cup (likey to be zero wining bets!) has reduced by profitability from 53.3% to 27.9 % (below the 40 % I was looking to achieve) (winning points from 153 to 127)

Reiewing my bets in the past 2 months (when I did my last update), the things I woudl have done differently were:

- backed Marquez (and Senderos) in all games to score first/last in the World Cup
- backed teh Schumacher/Massa Dual Forecast at 5-2 (US Grand Prix)

Massa to shine in USA - 4pts win, Fastest Lap (12-1), 4pts Handiciap Win (+15s) - Bet365

I belive that the Ferraris will have a signficant advantage in the USA Grand Prix (confirming qualifying form). An option would be to back Michael Schumacher at 1-2, but that is not my kind of bet - I believe that the difference between Mass and Schumachr is not massive. However, as team orders may play a part I am also reluctant to back Massa outright.

I seriously considered 5/2 on the Dual Forecast. However I believe I've come up with two better bets (which will both have a reasonable chance of happening if Ferrari dominate)

Massa to produced fastest lap - 12-1. Michael Schumacher is 5/6. I don't believe there should be such a difference.

Massa on the Handicap (see times below). I think that Massa with probably finish closer than 15s to Michael Schumacher. I can see a scenario where the Ferrais dominate and Masa is allowed to finish approx 2-3 s behind Michael Schumacher.

Michael Schumacher (Finish Time minus 0 min 0 secs)
Fernando Alonso (Finish Time minus 0 min 8.0 secs)
Giancarlo Fisichella (Finish Time minus 0 min 15.0 secs)
Felipe Massa (Finish Time minus 0 min 15.0 secs)
Kimi Raikkonen (Finish Time minus 0 min 20.0 secs)
Rubens Barrichello (Finish Time minus 0 min 45.0 secs)
Juan Pablo Montoya (Finish Time minus 0 min 45.0 secs)
Jenson Button (Finish Time minus 0 min 50.0 secs)
Jacques Villeneuve (Finish Time minus 0 min 55.0 secs)

Saturday, July 01, 2006

Jarno Trulli - 2pts E/W USA Grand Prix Qualfying - 80-1

Jarno ran light in qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix, giving him 4th place on the grid. If Toyota reapeat this strategy, he has a reasonable chance of securing a top 3 position in qualfying.

Jarno was first in the qualifying in the inaugral running of the race last year so clearly has a liking for the track.

Queen Cleopatra - 3.40 - Curragh 8-1 - 2pts win

The 3 yo fillies get a significant amount of weight in this race. This may mean we see an upset with Queen Cleopatra (placed in 2 classics) winning. 3 yo olds don't have a great record, but the trainer thinks the horse is progressive (her run in the Prix Diane last time was especially impressive).