Sunday, July 26, 2009

Man City to finish Bottom of the Handicap - Premiership (+16 pts)

I believe Man City may not finish as well as expected this year. It is critical they they stregnthen their defence - at the moment that have far too many strikers. However, if they persist in trying to get Terry they run the risk of ending up with no significant defensive purchases. If this happens, I think a 7th-8th finish is a possibility, which would see them (potentially) 'winning' the race to win bottom of the Premierhsip Handicap from +16.

I am far less confident about this bet than the Newcastle wager below - I've had 4 pts on the Man City bet and wouldn't want any more, it is far less value.

Newcastle to finish bottom on the Handicap - Championship (Scratch)

Newcastle are a club in disaray at present. To restore sanity to the club, owner Mike Ashley will need to sell. However, at present the bids are not to his likling. Until a sale is made, it is likley Chris Houghton wil reamin in charge and there will be no new players bought. I am suprised to see Newcastel favourites to win the divsion - I think that a mid-table position is most likely (at best).

I've therefore backed Newcastle to come bottom on the Championship handicap at 14/1 with Skybet. They are off 'scratch' meaning they give up points to all other teams in the division. I think this is an excellent bet = I'd make it a 7/1 chance at most. The only concern will be a another team also doing unexpectedly very badly (as Charlton did last year to scupper my QPR bet). I tried to have 12pts at 14/1 on Newcastle finishing bottom of the handicap, but was restricetd to 4pts.

I missed the 18/1 yesterday... I wasn't expecting the market to move and Newcastle managed this casue this by losing 6-1 yesterday.

N.B. Don't confuse this with the 'Outright Handicap Market'!

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

SPOTY (Bet #2) - Tom Daley - 200/1 Bluesq - 2pts

I've tried to restrict the number of bets I'm having on SPOTY (hence not backing Flintoff at 33/1, now 5/1), but I can't resist having a second bet on SPOTY 2009 (to go with 8pts on Jessica Ennis at 33/1). Tom Daley has just won the Diving World Chmapionship - if the BBC choose to major on him in their SPOTY 2009 preview, he could be in with a reasonable chance. 200/1 is an insult. I've had 2pst at Bluesq. (William Hill are 3/1! (which is laughably short).

Notts County to win League Two - 10/1 - 14pts win

Notts County had terrible results last season, narrowly avoiding relegation. However, the recent takeover by Munto Finance may have significantly changed the situation. Munto Finance have stated that they wish to get into the Championship in the next 4-5 seasons. The likely "shock" appointment tomorrow of Sven-Goran Eriksson as Director of Football has signalled they are serious about this ambition. Surely Eriksson would only have taken this appointment with a significant financial inducement. If a substantial amount of money is spent on the playing staff in the next 2 weeks, Notts County will have a great chance of winning this division.

I've backed Notts County at the following bookies (all at 10-1)

Victor Chandler - 4pts
Paddy Power - 3pts
BlueSQ - 6pts
SJ - 1pt

These were all the max. bets I was allowed...

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Open Golf - Outright Bet (after Rnd 3) - Bryce Molder - 2 pts E/W 50-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) - Ladbrokes, 4 pts Win Betfair (75-1)

Bryce Molder was the final person I crossed off my Open list (at 250-1), leaving Stpehen Ames as my only bet. Bryce Molder has recently been in inspired form with some remarkebly consitent rounds. My concern pre-tournament was that having to play two rounds last Sunday would mean tiredness was an issue - this is claerly not the case.

With Stpehen Ames missing the cut, I've now decided to back Bryce Molder at 50-1. An excellent 67 today means he is on even par, 4 shots behind the leader Tom Watson. Molder has shown today he can handle the windy conditions, likely to be the case tomorrow. I had no doubnt links golf would not be an issue - he played reasonably well links golf in his Amateur career (picked this up in my pre-tournament research!)

I've also placed 4 pts win at 70-1 on Betfair, with a lay back at even money (I've been twice caught with Open Golf losing bets with players who have gone odds on at some point!)

Khan v Kotelnik - Kotelnik to win on points - 5pts - 8/1

I believe Khan is seriously underpriced for this fight. After a first round loss to Prescott (three fights ago) and a win last fight over a 'past it' Barrera, Khan is taking a serious chance by fighting Kotelnik.

Khan is vulnerable to a KO from Kotelnik (7/2), but his trainer Roach will have educated him to try to avoid this (especially as this would be a career ending result for Khan). Kotelnik was able to stand (hard hitting) Maidana in his last fight and go onto win on points, hence I think a KO by Khan (2/1)is unlikely.

I am therefore think a points victory for either boxer are the the most likely possible cenarios. A Kahan points victory at 6/4 is no value. A "suprise" Kotelnik points victory is a definite "runner" and, at 8/1, is a great bet. I'd make it a 3/1 chance.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Open Golf - Stephen Ames to win ROW market - Totesport - 10/1 - 6 pts (1pt E/W Outright market)

I think Stephen Ames to go better than expected in the Open. He last 4 Major results were :

T7 - Missed Cut - T20 - T10

The T7 was in last year's Open when he posted an excellent final round score in windy conditions - there could be similar conditions this year. I've had 1pt E/W on Betfair at prices of 190.0 win/30 place. I've reserved my main bet for the Totesport 'Rest of The World' Market. Totesport have fewer players on their marketcomnpared to other bookies, reducing the risk. (of course Ames is 10/1, shorter than the 25/1 in most ROW markets with other bookies)

The main players in this market are


All of them are capable on their day and could easily win this market, but I don't especially fancy any of these players this week. I've had max. allowed of 6pts (tried to have 10 pts).

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Sports Personality of the Year 2009 - Jessica Ennis - 50-1 - 8pts win

The two shortest in the betting for SPOTY are Jenson Button and Andy Murray.

Jenson Button has a great chance of winning this, but at 4/7 he is not a backable price. With BBC now showing F1, he will get excellent coverage. However, he is not guranteed to win the F1 championship and, and even if he does win, this does not automatically translate to winning the SPOTY 2009.

At 4/1 Andy Murray has a chance, but he didn't finish in the Top 3 last year. As a consequence of 'only' a semi final this year at Wimbledon, as a minimum he wouldl need to win the US Open (and even that would not gurantee a win in SPOTY 2009). I have a suspicion in England he is not especially well liked, as a consequence of some previous unfortunate commments.

With relstively few individual events this year, I've picked Jesscia Ennis to win SPOTY 2009 at 50/1. She is back fit again and has a good chance of winning Gold in the Heptathlon in the World Championships in Berlin this summer. If this happens, I think she is likley to finsih top 3 (and potentially win it ouright). She his taking park today in an Athletics tournament - I've therefore taken the last remaining 50/1 at Corals. I would make her a 10/1 chance.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Graaem Swann - Man of the Match - 1st Ashes Test - 8pts win 14/1

Graeme Swann has an excellent chance of being Man of the Match in the firat test. This ground is likley to take spin (as shown by earlier one day mathces). He is particularly potent against left handers - there are a realtively large number of these in the Asutralian top order. I believe Swann could take a signficant amount of wickets whcih woudl put him in with a great chance of winning MoM. I've managed to get 6pts at 14/1 and 2pts at 16/1

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Pietersen to score > 500 runs in the Ashes Test Series - Centrebet - 11/2 - 8 pts

Pietersen has a career test average of 48.3. The bookies think he will score approx 400 runs in the Ashes series, but I think this is an underestimate.


- Previous Ashes series totals were 490 (in 2005) and 473 (in 2005) with an average of 53.5 i.e. he raises his game against Australia compared to lesser teams
- Australia have a weaker bowling attack than the last two Ashes ** this is the most important **
- I believe Pietersen will be motivated by the loss of being captain


- Possible injury worries (although he asys he has recovered form these)
- Will Pietersen gets a chance to bat for 10 innings? ( I think highly likely but could be derailed by injuries and/or weather)

I therefore think that 11/2 on him to score more than 500 runs is a very fair price - I'd make at an approx 3/1 chance (at most).

Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year - 11/2 - Betfred - 2pts win

The 'Racing Post' today highlighted a great bet today on Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year 2009-10. In 15 the last 16 years the Manager who has won the Premier League has also won Premeier Manager of the Year. You are therefore getting effectively 11/2 about a 5/2 chance. I tried to have 16 pts on Ancelotti but was restricted to 2pts.

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Tour De France - Fabian Cancellara - 100-1 4 pts E/W

This bet is going to go down as one of my most inspired or my most stupid.

Another day, another "Black Swan". Folliwng today's racing of the Tour de France (first day), second placed Contador has strengthed his position at the top of the market. He is a likely winner, but the three week Tour De France has thrown at many suprises in the past during the competition e.g. failed drug tests. I'm therefore not tempted at even money.

Instead, I have had a speculative 4 pts E/W at Ladbrokes at 100-1 on Cancellara (who won todays time trial by 20s). Most people will think this is complete nonsense as Cancellara is considered "just" a time trial specialist. However, he showed in the recent Tour of Switzerland that he can build up a sufficient lead in the time trials to win the overall event (by staying competitive in the mountains).

Certainly past winner Stephen Roche thinks that a high overall finish is not impossible. Cancellara's (alleged) weight loss of 7 kg may have just been the what is required to stay competitive in the French mountains.

This bet complements my 4pt win bet placed last year on Lance Armstrong at 16-1 when he announced his comback (now top priced 13-2).

Friday, July 03, 2009

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2009 - Guadeloupe - 2pts E/W - 100/1

A signficant numnber of the leading contenders for this tournamnet are fiedling sub-strength teams. This means one of the outsiders could go deep into the tournament. I think a possible 'Black Swan' are Guadeloupe. As they are not a FIFA memeber, their ability is more difficult to judge.

Most of the Guadeloupe players play in the French League so consequently play to a reasonable standard. Their first appearance in the Gold Cup in 2007 saw them make the semi-finals went out 1-0 to Mexico. They are in a relatively weak group (Group C). I am confident they will qaulify from the Group stage, probably in 2nd place behind Mexico. They could even top it due to Mexico fielding a youth team

There is no way there should be 100-1 (outright) chances. I've tried to have 4 pts E/W but have been restricted to 1 pt E.W at 2 bookmakers (making a total investment of 2pts EW). I've also had 1pt at 33-1 on Guadeloupe to win Group C - I tried to have 4pts.