Pietersen to score > 500 runs in the Ashes Test Series - Centrebet - 11/2 - 8 pts

Pietersen has a career test average of 48.3. The bookies think he will score approx 400 runs in the Ashes series, but I think this is an underestimate.

Postives

- Previous Ashes series totals were 490 (in 2005) and 473 (in 2005) with an average of 53.5 i.e. he raises his game against Australia compared to lesser teams
- Australia have a weaker bowling attack than the last two Ashes ** this is the most important **
- I believe Pietersen will be motivated by the loss of being captain

Negatives

- Possible injury worries (although he asys he has recovered form these)
- Will Pietersen gets a chance to bat for 10 innings? ( I think highly likely but could be derailed by injuries and/or weather)

I therefore think that 11/2 on him to score more than 500 runs is a very fair price - I'd make at an approx 3/1 chance (at most).