Saturday, December 31, 2005

The Real McCoy

Bet365 are quoting 14-1 on McCoy having no winners at Cheltenham 06. I won with this bet last year... if he makes the meeting, I think this would probably be an approx 8-1 chance (no good chances like Baraccouda this time). In addition, at this stage, there is still the possibility of bans/injury.

I'm having 1.5 pts win.

Spice Girls, 'Right Back at Ya'

I think there is quite a reasonable chance that the Spice Girls will re-form this year - there are large sums of money being offered to them (allegedly approx 10m each for a tour).

If this happens (currently quoted at 4-1), will they release a new song to promote it? (and will this song get to No.1?)

If you think this is a possibility (and I do) the 66-1 at Will Hill on the Spice Girls reforming (min 3 members) and releasing a new record that reaches No1 looks very big... I am having 1 pt on this.

Ding Dong the bells are going to chime.....

William Hill have been shown some Christmas genoristy by offering 16-1 on Gavin Henson and Charlotte Church to marry this year (2006). I think it should be much shorter - I would suggest Bet365/Bluesq are closer to the mark @ 7-2.

I tried to put 4 pts on this outcome but Will.Hill. have restricted my stake to 2 pts!

Chelsea v Birmingham (Draw HT/Chelsea FT)

This bet has paid out 7 out of 10 times this season with Chelsea at home.. paid out in midweek away to Man City.

I'm having 5pts win (again) @ 4-1.

Friday, December 30, 2005

Jon Challinor 1st Goal Scorer - Exeter v Hereford

I'm proabbly missing something, but why is Jon Challinor (Exeter) 14-1 (Stan James) to be 1st Goal Scorer? He is Exeter's leading goal scorer and Exeter are approx. even money favs.

I am sure it will all become clear(perhaps he is playing a different role tonight?) ... in the mean time I'm having 2 pts @ 14-1 (considered the 12-1 @ Bet365 who refund your osing bet if your player scores last). N.B Challinor is as shortas 6-1 at William Hill!

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Macs Joy - Leopardstown's Festival Hurdle.

Jessica Harrington's horse are under a cloud (including Macs Joy). However, I taking a chance that Macs Joy wins the Leopardstown's Festival Hurdle. He won it last year, and, provding he is fit, since he is a similar standard to Brave Inca and Harchibald, he would be in with a live chance. That is a big if, but that is more than factored into to the price @ 12-1 - I'm having 2 pts win

Alexander - First Goalscorer - Wycombe v Leyton Orient

Play up a proportion of your winnings from Stan James on G. Alexander @ 8-1 for 1st Goalscorer (Wycombe v Leyton Orient)

He is Leyton Orient's clear leader for goals scored (11 in League 2 this season) and should be, in my opinion, probably an approx 5-1 chance. I'm having 2 pts on 1st Goal Scorer.

Welcome first winner!

Easy win for Liverpool gives me first return (excluding Kicking King)... depressingly, the Chelsea Draw HT/Chelseas FT bet woudl have paid out this time (althoiugh the stats. for this is less strong than it is for when Chelsea are at home.)

Current Status

Running Total on Settled
Bets Staked = 10pts
Total Return = 9 pts
% return = -10%

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

'Free' Bet - Liverpool v Everton - Stan James

I am placing the 10 point free bet (won via Kicking King) at 5/6 on Liverpool to beat Everton. Liverpool are in far superior form to Everton. Stan James are top priced, I suspect this outcome will be 8-11 in the morning.

One Knight - Gold Cup Ante Post Bet

I've spent a reasonable amount of time looking at the Welsh National. I think although it is a competitive race, the winner is likely to come from the first three in the betting (One Knight, Cornish Rebel and World Wide Web) with Crystal D'Ainay as a possibility at a bigger price.

I considered a series of combination trifectas or exactas (on the first three in the betting) , but, as an alternative I've decided to back One Knight (Ante Post) E/W for the Cheltenham Gold Cup @ 40-1 (Stan James)

I'm having 1 pt E/W and hoping that he puts up a good performance. My one worry is that he might not make to Gold Cup, but @ 40-1 it is probably worth chancing. I also considered a similar bet on Cornish Rebel.....

Huntingdon abandoned....

So the free 10 pt bet runs to Liverpool v Everton. I quite pleased as the 1.10 @ Huntingon looked a very tricky race. Just a shame it wasn't yesterday when I had a stronhg opinion that Liverpool would win to Nil (probably 2-0) which would have paid out at approx 6-1.

I'll post my bet tomorrow on the Liverpool v Everton game.

Monday, December 26, 2005

First Goal Scorer - Tim Cahill - Aston Villa - v Everton

It is quite possible that Tim Cahill will start up front for Everton... if so 14-1 at William Hill is a very fair price, I'd make it an approx 8-1 shot.

I'm having 2 pts on Tim Cahill / 1st Goalscorer.

P.S. I'll update tomorrow morning the 'free bet' (10pt, Stan James) tip for the 1.10 @ Huntington.

Speculative Scorecast Bet -

Sportingodds have a special offer where, if you get only half your prediction correct (i.e. either correct score or 1st goalscorer only correct), you get your stake refunded.

I strongly fancy Liverpool to win to nil (given Liverpool's stromng defensive record and Newcastle's poor attcking record). I considered taking the 6-4 on this with Bet365.

However, with's special offer, I've gone for something more speculative i.e. a scorecast bet

Liverpool to win 2-0 seems the most likely scoreline (4 in the last 7 games) - without this special offer, this would have been my only bet. As for a 1st Goalscorer, this looks very open so I am going for Xavier Alonso.

I'm therefore having 1 pt on the Scorecast (2-0, Alonso) @ 50-1

Joey Barton - First/Last Goalscorer - Wigan v Man City

Penalty taker Joey Barton looks overpriced @ 22-1 at Bet365. The game is tough to call, but Barton has scored 4 goals this season and should be a 10/12 -1 shot.

I am having 1pt First Goal Scoreer and 1pt Last Goalscorer@ 22-1

Oustanding Stan James Offer.

As last year (if I remember correctly) they are offering a free bet to the same stakes if you pick the winner of the King George.

I think King King is a perfectly fair price at 6-4. I was considering backing it until I read in the Racing Post this special offer.

My new strategy is to back the horse at 6-4 (10 pts max bet.) and lay back on Betfair at 2.64 so you are even if Kicking King wins. This way, I will effectly be paying a small premium (approx. 1 pt) for an approx. 40% chance of a 10 pts max bet on the 1.10 @ Huntingdon tomorrrow.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

UK Premiership - Chelsea v Fulham - Draw HT/Chelsea FT

This bet has paid out 7 out of 9 times this season. Teams are coming to Stamford Bridge and 'parking buses' in front of the goal. Have 5pts at the generally availible 4/1.

What is the Kicking Bets Blog?

A record of my thoughts on gambling (and related bets that I place). This first post will have the general that I intend to follow.

Golden Rules

1. Discipline - It is critical that you maintain your discipline is you wish to make gambling profitable. If you go through a losing (or winning) sequence (which is statistically likely) do not adjust your betting plan. Do not wither chase losses or up stakes with your winnings. Bet levels for what is appropriate for the value of the bet. Adjusting bets levels should be happen as result of evaluating your bets (see below).

2. Evaluation - Ensure, after each bet, to evaluate whether the bet was a good value bet or not. N.B. Do this for both winning and losing bets - it his quite possible for a losing bet to have been an excellent value bet (and a winning bet to have been a 'bad' bet').

3. Record - Keep a record of your bets. This includes all bets (including 'fun' bets). This is the only way to ensure you maintain discipline on your betting and to make it possible to evaluate your profitability (or otherwise!)

4. Judgment - to achieve value bets, you have to make the correct judgment through analysis. This analysis is achieved in many different ways - I'll cover this in a later post.

Why is this blog called kickingbets? For 2 reasons

1. I hope that the bets I place are 'kicking' (i.e. win)
2. My betting fund was created with my winnings from backing Kicking King @ 1000-1 for the 2005 Gold Gup - check out the Racing Post website where this is documented.

To ensure I remain discplined, I will keep a running points/percentage total on this blog for the bets I make. Stakes will be on a scale of 1 to 5, and I will have a % running return (how I wish all betting analys would do this.)

Finally, a word of warning. If you choose to bet as a result of reading what the bets I have placed, only do so with money you can afford to lose. As in life, you are personally responsible for all your decisions (and consequent wins/losses).

Update: To give myslef more flexibility, I have changed the Stakes Scale from 1-10 points.