Jenson Button - SBG GLobal - $200 @ 70-1

Some of you may remember this case... I placed a bet of $200 pre season with http://www.sbgglobal.com on Jenson Button at 70-1 for the 2009 F1 Championship. They have now upped their offer from even money ( :) ) to 12-1. I still believe I should be paid at 70-1.

After waiting 2 months to be paid, I've now commenced legal action. It turns out that SBG Global are owned by SBG Euro, a UK company. This should help...below is a copy of the latter I have sent today to SBG Euro (by post and email).

**********************
I have not yet received the $14K USD that I am owed by SBG Global. I have now commenced legal action to ensure I am paid this money. Attached below are scanned copies of documents that have been sent to the registered address for SBG Euro Ltd (of which SBG Global are a wholly owned subsidiary).

You now have 21 days to pay the money owed to me. I suggest this is done by a payment to my VISA credit card. If you not have these details on file, please email me and I can provide these details. Please let me know when I should expect to receive payment.

If I do not receive payment, I file a winding-up petition against SBG Euro Ltd in the UK courts. This petition is a request for the court to make a "compulsory liquidation order". An accountant will then be appointed as a liquidator and sell off SBG Euro's assets to pay the money owed to me.

If you with to contact me, I must insist this done my email to this address rather than by phone.

2010 Specials - Part 2 - William Hill

The next bookie's 2010 prices I have reviewed is William Hill. I have managed to come up with 6 bets which I think are value.

1. Michael Schumacher to have 5+ winners in 2010 F1 Championship. - 7-1 - 20pts Win

Schumacher is now a confirmed 'runner' in the 2010 F1 Season for Merecdes (ex Brawn GP). Ross Brawn is a master race tactician and designer. Brawn GP have been working on the 2010 car since mid season 2009 and I believe are likely to be competitive again. (I don't believe Schumacher would have taken this drive if this wasn't the case). Schmacher has stayed fit so I don't think age is an issue - it is more relevent that he is one of the gretest drivers of all time. He has always outerformed his team mates so I am confident he with do the same wih Rosberg.

Schumacher is currently a 5-1 chance for the 2010 F1 Championship. I think of better value is the 7-1 for 5+ wins. There are 19 races in 2010 so he will need to win > approx. 25% of the races. With rules changes for 2010 (no refulleing, narrower tyes) it is possible a single team will make a fast start (like with Brawn in 2009).

If you look at previous seasons, you can see that often more than one driver scores approx > 25% in a season (3 out of the past 5 years). The reverse is not true ie. no driver has won the chmampionship without scoring > 25% wins.

Past Season Reviews (with drivers who makes approx > 25% criteria in bold):
Top 3 Drivers in each Season

No. of Races Driver/Number of Race Wins/% Wins

2009 17 - Button 6, Vettel 4, Barricello 2
2008 18 - Hamilton 5, Massa 6, Raikkonen 3
2007 17 - Raikkonen 6, Hamilton 4, Alonso 4
2006 18 - Alonso 7, Schumacher 7, Massa 2
2005 19 - Alonso 6, Raikkonen 7, Schmuacher 1

This means either the 5-1 on Schmuchaer for the championship is too short or the 7-1 on 5+ wins is too long (I'm betting on the latter as it is a less popular market). Labrokes do a similar market and make it and approx 4-1 chance - I'd make it an approx 3-1 chance.

2. Any England Bowler to take a Test Match Hatrick - 8-1 - 4pts Win

Suprisingly, England bowlers have taken hatricks relatively often in Test matches (past 20 years reviewed) - 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 i.e approx 1 in every 5 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Test_cricket_hat-tricks

There is a reasonable test program this year (inclusing 2 x test series against Bangladesh) so there is no reason to think this year will have any different chance. BlueSq are going 9/2, a much more accurate price.

3. A European trained winner of the Melbourne Cup 8-1 - 4 pts

On bare reading of stats., 8-1 would seem the approximately correct price as Europe have had two winners in the past 20 years (1992/2003).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Melbourne_Cup_winners

However, we have been very close on several other occasions recently. I think the BlueSQ price of 3/1 is slighly too short (but a more accurate price than 8-1 - I'd make it an approx. 9/2 chance).

4. Capello to receive a Knighthood in 2010 - 100/1 - 4pts win

England are an approx 6-1 for the World Cup. Whilst I think this is too short, I would still make them no more than a 10-1 chance. If England win the World Cup, I think there is good chance (even money?) that Capello will be awarded an (honourary) Knighthood at end 2010. Ramsey receive a knighthood for 1966, and in these 'celeb' times, there is no reason to think that Capello won't also recieve one. I'd make this an approx 20-1 chance.

5. Pete Doherty to receive a custodial sentence in 2010 - 5-1 - 4pts win

Doherty is treading a very fine line with continual drug (re)offences. I cannot see the judicary allowing him many more chances. He also has potential crimianl proceedings for a hit and run incident (primarily invovling his manager).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Doherty

6. First Celeberity Couple to Divorce in 2010 - Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes- 50-1 - 2pts Win

Tiger & Erin Woods are far too short at 1-3 to be the first couple to divorce, meaning there has to be value at on the other runners. I can't suggest I am an expert in this area, but I think (divorcee) Cruise may have a 'rocky' year. I'm going to have to get a subscription to Heat.

Full list of runners (and odds) below

Tiger and Erin Woods 1/3
Kerry Katona and Mark Croft 4/1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie 7/1
Ashley and Cheryl Cole 10/1
Charlotte Church and Gavin Henson 16/1
Roger and Mirka Federer 25/1
Wayne and Coleen Rooney 33/1
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 50/1
David and Victoria Beckham 50/1

2010 Specials - Part 1 - Skybet

At Christmas, my (betting) thoughts turn to yearly specials. These can sometimes be poor value, but amongst the dross are a few gems. The first review I've made is of Skybets's 2010 Specials markets. If anyone can spot and value bets I've missed, please post as a comment or, if you would prefer, send to chris.trinder@gmail.com.

1. Golf - An Amateur to win on the Europen Tour - 7-1

Amateurs have have had a suprisingly good record on the European tour recently. There have been three wins (two in 2009, one in 2007) so 7-1 is a great price. I think it should be much shorter (2-1?). I've had 6 pts (max. allowed). This could make for some interesting viewing of final rounds....

2. Tennis - Murray to win 7 (or more) ATP titles - 7-1

Murray won 5 ATP titles in 2007 and 6 ATP titles in 2008. Nadal is less of a threat now (but Del Potro is more of a threat). I woudl think Murray will probably win approx 6/7 singles titles so 7-1 on 7+ titles is a graet bet... I'd make it an approx 6-4 chance at most. I've had 8pts (max. allowed). It should keep me interested in watching the Men's ATP Tennis for the year!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Murray

3. Cricket - Top Test Score to be greater than 735 - 16-1

The 3 highest test scores last year were:

765
760
749

(all of which would have made this bet payout). Unless I am missing something, the 16-1 is excellent value - I think this should be an odds on shot. I've had 1.5pts (max allowed).

http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=1;id=2009;type=year

4. Snooker - World Championship to have a Century scored in the final frame - 9-1

This has occured in the following years: 2009, 2003, 1998, 1995. I'd therefore think it is probably an approx 4-1 chance. I've had 3 pts at 9-1 (max. allowed).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_Snooker_Championships

I will be doing reviews over the next 2-3 days of each of the other bookies markets.

P.S. 2 Bets I missed were 'Six 6s in a Internatial Twenty20 Over' highlighted in a comment below at 50/1) - now into 3/1 (priced changed while I was doing my analysis) :( and 'Top Test Indiviudal Score to be > 313'... this was priced at 6/1, now into 5/2. The new prices are just fair.

Kempton Christmas Hurdle - Straw Bear - 80/1 - Stan James - 2pts E/W

Straw Bear has been mainly chasing recently (with little success). He wisely has returned to hurdling and takes on the 2009 Christmas Hurdle, a race he won in 2007. His run in this race 2008 was too bad to be true (although I haven't been able to find an explanation). After his poor hurdling re-appearance this year he scoped badly, so that can be disregarded (as can his chasing runs). If he returns to his 2007 form, I think he has a live chance. I've had 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2) at 80/1 at Stan James.

Arsenal v Hull - Zayatte - 16/1 - Anytime Goalscorer - Paddy Power

Arsenal have showed defensive vulnerabilities this season and think Hull will probably get a goal today (possibly from a set piece). Hull Defender Kamil Zayatte has scored twice this season and I can see him getting this goal... I'd make him an approx 10-1 chance to do so. I've had 2pts at 16-1.

Will Tiger Wood's personal problems affect his Golf preformance?

When sportsmen have problems in their personal life, it often reduces their sporting performace. Tiger Wood's might now move resolved his perosnal issues (and enhance his performance)... however I think it is more likely he will have further "issues" next year, made worse by the media attention.

I've therefore had the follwoing bets at Skybet:

To Break Sneads PGA Tour Wins Record (2013 or later) - 9/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)

Woods currenntly has 71 PGA titles - he will need to reach 83 to beat Sam Snead's record (i.e. another 12 titles). He is currently accumulating titles as follows:

2009 - 6
2008 - 4
2007 - 7
2006 - 8
2005 - 6

ie. approx 6 a year. It is easy to see that this average could drop to 4 a year over the next 3 years - 9/1 for this to happen is a more than reasonable. (I appreciate he was injured for the 2nd half of 2008 - this still doesn't substatially change the average PGA titles per year).

Tiger's Next Major Win (2012 or Later) - 10/1 - 1pt (tried to have 10pts)
Tigers Next Major Win (No More Major Wins) - 50/1 (this pays out if he retires before winning anothe rmajor) - 0.5 pts (tried to have 2pts)

Tiger Woods did not win a Major in 2009 (when his was fully fit) and only won a single Major each year from 2007-2009. I can easily seee him failing to win a major in the next 2 years.

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With the continual restriction in my stakes (now from all major bopokmakers - I've just received another "account closed" letter), I'm probably going to either start a "Veitch" like approach or perhaps focus on different areas of investment.

I guess I should take it has a complement that I can't get my bets on!

Betfair Chase - Halcon Generladis - 20/1 - 2pts Win

Halcon Generladis goes well fresh, will be favoured by the heavy ground and likes the course (Haydock). I think he has a better than 20/1 chance of winning this race (14/1?). I've had 2pts win at Betfair.

IACGMOOH - Katie Price - 10/1 - 4pts

5th in Series 3, Katie Price aka 'Jordan' has a serious chance of winning this event. There have rarely been such a high profile contestant. Critically, she will divide the audience in a love/hate way. As viewers are voting for participants (rather than to 'eveict'), this plays into her hands. I think she is reasonable value at 10/1 - a final three appearance is likely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_a_Celebrity%E2%80%A6Get_Me_out_of_Here!_%28UK_TV_series%29

Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 - Denny Hamlin - 2pts Win - 8/1

I think Jimmie Johnson is a poorly priced favourite at 4/1 for this race. With 2 races to go in the Championship, he'll take no risks (especially after losing points in the last race). Hamlin has been in execllent form in recent races and has a good record at this track. He qualified in 5th, showing that his car has a decent setup. I've backed him at 8/1 (2pts Win)... 9/1 is availible at Paddy Power (where my bets are limited).

SCD - Phil Tuffnell - 250/1 - 2pts Win

Jade Johnson suffered a serious injury yesterday forcing her to pullout from yesterday's SCD tournament. Under the rules of SCD, she is allowed to miss a single event. However, I think it is unlikely she will be back next weekend which leaves the BBC with 2 options:

1. Make the final consist of 2 couples (rather than 3)
2. Make next week's tournament a 'zero exit ' round
3. Allow the loser this week (Phil Tuffnell) to be return as a 'lucky loser'

I think 1. is the most likley option, but option 3 is a definate possibility (5/1?). If this happens, the the 250/1 is going to look pretty big - I'd then make him a 16/1 chance.

SPOTY 2009 - Market review and new bet......

Those of you who follow my blog know I take a keen interest in betting for SPOTY. At present my portfolio has the following bets:

8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1 (now unquoted) - very unlikely
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 100/1)

I have now added what will probably be my final bet on this event. I've has 2pts E/W on Chrissie Wellington at 200/1. Your first response to this would probably be 'Chrissie Who?'. She is the three times Tri-athelete World Champion, winning the event again this year. I think there is a very real possibility that the Sports Editors who compile the the 'Top 10' list from which the public vote from will include her. Then it is up to the BBC how they present her achievements - she will then certainly have the publicity she needs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

What makes me especially keen on this bet is that Wellington has just won the prestigious 'Sunday Times Sportwoman of the Year', beating Ennis into 2nd place! (this competition has a similar voting methodology - list of 10, followed by public voting). Winners of this event have a good record in SPOTY. The past record is as follows:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/more_sport/article2902012.ece

2008 Nicole Cooke (unplaced)
2007 Victoria Pendleton (unplaced)
2006 (Doesn't seem to have been an award?)
2005 Zara Philips (1st SPOTY 2006)
2004 Kelly Holmes (1st SPOTY 2004)
2003 Pippa Funnell (unplaced)
2002 Paula Radcliffe (1st SPOTY 2002)
2001 Ellen MacArthur (2nd SPOTY 2001)
2000 Denise Lewis (2nd SPOTY 2000)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award

She is quoted at 100/1 at Coral at present - no other bookies quote her. I'd make her a 25/1 chance (at most).

England v Brazil - FGS/LGS (1pt Each) - Gareth Barry - 25/1

Brazil hasve an excellent defensive record, but I still think England may well score a goal today. With Gerrard and Lampard out, Barry may play a more forward role (and will be likley to take penalties). The generally availible 25-1 on FGS/LGS is a reasonable price - I'd make him an approximtely 12/1-14/1 chance (the price his is at Betfred).

Paddy Power Gold Cup - Tarotino - 2pts Win - 12/1

Paddy Power sponsor the Gold Cup at Cheletenham today and have a great offer. They are refunding losing stakes if the race is won by a Nicholls trained horse. Nicholls trains 3 fancied horses:

Chapoturgeon (7-1)
Poquelin (14-1)
Tatenen (11-1)

It therefore makes sense to pick a non-Nicholls horse. There are many of these with a chance, however I've gone for Tarotino (12-1). He has been impressive in his recent races and although he has been rasied 15lb since his last race at Bangor, he may stil have the potential to improve past this weight raise. The ground is a concern for the trainer, but I think the soft ground should not inconvenience (unlike many others) - her has previosuly win on the soft.

European Chmpionship - Darts - James Wade 5pts E/W

James Wade is in the semi finals whre he plays Steve Beaton (Wade 1-3, Beaton 2-1). Paddy Power are very generously offering him with E/W betting (1/3) 1,2 at 9/2 for ouright betting. If you think the prices are correct (which I do), the E/W shape/nature of the market makes this a great bet. I've had a (max allowed) 5 pts E/W

Update: Perhaps it would have made more sense to back BOTH semi-finalists in the opposite half from Phil Taylor.

2nd Update: All bets (win/place) voided by Paddy Power.

Strictly Come Dancing - Ricky Groves to win Week 6 - 66/1 - 1pt

I am starting to think that Ricky Groves has a chance of winning SCD (ouright). He is dancing the American Smooth this week. The dances are as follows:

Amercian Smooth - Ali, Chris, Nat, RickyG, RickyW, Zoe
Samba - Craig, Jade, Jo, Laila, Tuffers

Those who will be dancing the Amercian Smooth will have a significant advantage as this is typically highly scored. Ricky W and Ali with provide stiff competition but if Ricky G ditches the 'cheeky chappy' routine, I think the judges will reward him well. Apparently rehearsels are going well for Ricky Groves - I can see a score in the thirties. The downside is that Ricky G is more suited by Latin dances, but you can't have everything in your favour...

I tried to have 2pts, but have had to get a total of 1pts across several bookies at 66/1.

The first of many I fear.....

to "chris.trinder@googlemail.com"
date Thu, Oct 22, 2009 at 5:23 PM
subject Account Closure
mailed-by galacoral.com

Dear Mr Trinder

I am writing to advise you that your account with Coral.co.uk has been closed. As of now, no further bets can be accepted and and any recorded in error will be decarled void, win or lose. This decision has been taken purely for commercial reasons.

In the event of you placing a bet indirectly with Coral.co.uk in the future, we will reserve the right to void your bet.

Any funds currently in your balance have now been sent back to your registered card. Any outstanding Ante Post bets will be settled upon their maturity and any subsequent funds won will be sent back to your registered card.

Kind Regards

Terry

Coral Customer Care Supervisor

Brazil GP F1 - Rosberg 8pts win (25-1), 1pt Place

There is a raesonable likelihood of rain this afternoon at the Brazil GP. If the race is severely affected by rain, Rosberg has an excellent chance to win the race. He showed in early practice yesterday that his car is optimized for wet conditions. I've had 8 pts win at a (generous) 25/1. I've also had a small place bet (1pt) to cover my win stake, but I think he his most likely to either win or come nowhere. I'd make him a 8/1 chance to win. Due to restrictions, I've had to palce this bet across several bookmakers.

Portugal Masters - Lima - 1pt E/W 150/1

Lima has played consistently well on the Challenge Tour thsi year (finished second on the tour)and could spring a surprise in the Portugal Masters. He has an excellent record in Portugal in recent seasons which would mean I would make him an approx 66/1 chance of winning this event.

I tried to have 2pts E/W but was restricted to 1 pt E/W.

Argentina v Peru - Peru to win - 33/1 - 2pts

As per my post below, although I am fairly convinced Argentina will win tonight, there come a point when a price can simply to big. This is the case with Peru tonight - the 33/1 is too big - I'd make it a 16/1 chance (at most). It is just possible that Maradona will contrive to lose this game via a combination of poor tactics, (unlucky) finishing and weak defending.

Argentina v Peru - FGS (50-1) /AGS (16-1) - Varga - Extrabet

Argentina legend Maradona has proved to be an inept maanger - is is ludicrous that Argentina will (probably) only just qualify for the 2010 World Cup. Tonight they play Peru and although they should win the game, there is a good chance they will conceed a goal to Peru. This may well come from talented attacking midfileder Varga.

He is way overpriced at Bet365 and Extrabet for first golascsorer (50-1) / anytime goalscorer (14-1). I missed the 80-1/20-1 - most other bookies go much shorter. I've had 2pt on each.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Manuel_Vargas

Presidents Cup - Stewart Cink - Top US - 14/1 Stan James - 4pts

Stewart Cink has the strongest President's Cup record on the US team. He also has an excellent match play record. He has been in fair form recently and I think he has a great chance of being top US points scorer. At 14/1 he is great value - I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

I think the other (possible) vale bet is Sean O'Hair, but I'm sticking to a single bet at present.

Lay Phil Taylor at 1.07 - 1st Round Grand Prix 2009 - 2pts Lay Liabilty

Phil Taylor is one oif the greatest sportsmen of all time. However, he could be vulnerable tonight in the first round of the 2009 Grand Prix. Each leg requires a double to start and the match is only a best of 3 legs. Phil Taylor has won 8 of the last 11 Grand Prixes that have been held - the 3 times has lost have all been lost in the first round. I've laid Phil Taylor at 1.07 on Betfair for tonight's match - I'd make it an approx 1.2 chance.

Barrichello - F1 Championship 2009 16-1 - 10pts

I've been unable to get anyone to take my request for 40-1 at Betfair for Barrichello so I have had 10 pts at 16-1 with William Hill. This is a fair price (and nothing more) but I am keen to get a balanced book on the 2009 F1 chammpionship. Bizzarely, my worst result is now Button! (but not by much)

I have attached an image of my bets on F1 Championship... I'm pretty pleased how things have gone - it looks like I've timed my investments in F1 quite well this year!

Prix de L'Abbaye - Monsiuer Chevalier - 25-1 - 2pts Win

Monsieur Chevalier may be able to make the most of his weight for age allowance as the only 2yo in the race. The last 2yo to try this (Kingsgate Native, 2007) came 2nd and the record of 2yo's over the past decade in this race is pretty good. I think a strong paced 5f will suit the horse (he has been run the last 2 races over 6f) and the 25-1 .

On an unrelated market, I've backed Vettel to win £8K in the F1 Championship market on Betfair - now we are two races from the end of the season, I'm closing down the 'gap' in the returns between Button, Barichello and Vettel. I'm now trying to lay Barichello as he is now the worst result for me... I'm hoping someone will lay my 40-1 on Betfair over the next couple of weeks...I really need to do a P & L on these three runners!

Prize Fighter Preview - Harrison/Barrett

I think Audley Harrison may just about have enough class to win 'Prizefighter'. However, the nature of the contest (just 3 rounds for each fight) means that there is a reasonable possibility that he could win each of the 3 bouts on points. I think the 8/1 that Skybet and Boylesports are offering on this is good value. I've had 5.5 pts on this (max allowed). I'd think it was more like a 5/1 chance.

I have also been tempted by the 16/1 at Skybet on (unbeaten 8-0-0) Coleman Barrett to reach the Final (he is this price with other bookies to win it!). I have never been a big fan of Danny Williams who he would most likley meet in the Semi Final - I'd give Barrett a chance against him. I'd make Barrett a 7/1 chnace of making the final - I've had 4pts at 16/1

Japanese Grand Prix - Trulli to be fastet in Qualifying - 33/1 - 4.5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (1/5 1,2,3)

Japanase teams have an excellent qualifying record at the Japanase Grand Prix, typically overachieving compared to earlier season form. Suzuka will suit the Toyota car and Trulli has a 10-4 lead over his team mate Glock in qualifying. Trulli has already had a pole position once this year and it woudldn't surprise me to see a Toyota run relatively light in Q3 to try to steal a 'glory pole' on home turf - the car is good enough to do this. N.B. The possibility of rain also brings uncertainty meaning it is better to be on longer priced runners.

I;ve had to spread my bets around at several bookamkers as (unsuprisingly) I'm fairly limited as to what they will accept from me on F1 markets!

Japanese Grand Prix - Jenson Button to win Championship at Japanese Grand Prix - 1pt 9/1 (Stan James), 4pts 8/1 (William Hill)

Jenson Button needs to finish 20pts ahead of Barrichello and Vettel in the Championship to win the F1 title in Japan. He is currenly 15 pts clear of Barichello and 25 pts clear of Vettel. It is difficult to put an extact price on this, but I have a hunch that 9/1 is too big a price - I'd make it an approx 3/1 chance.

7th ODi - James Anderson - Man of the Match - 16/1 - 2pts

James Anderson has a reasonable chance of being Man of the Match in the 7th ODI. The weather conditiosn will suit his seam bowling (dry and overcast). He has a good record at this ground and Australia's batsman do not play seam bowling well - I'd make him a 12-1 chance.

N.B. I've had to spread this bet across several bookmakers due to limits on my accounts, hence the £12.50 on the betting slip (rather than the £50 total I have bet).

Austrian Open - Martin Erlandsson - 4pts win - 25/1

Malmo based Eralndsson's appointment of a sports psychologist has boosted his recent form the European tour (although he is still to win an event). His recent form figures read:

4-22-15-2-MC

His last two results at this location were 9th (2007) and 3rd (2008) (his best finish of the season last year). He goes well at this course as, unlike many other courses, it does not punish his somewhat erratic driving.

Lock in (further) £5K profits on F1 2009 Championship

I've backed Vettel at 40-1 on Betfair for 2009 F1 Champion. This is a fair price - (positive = some of upcoming tracks play to Red Bull strengths, negative = possible 10 place grid penalty for engine change). This bet gives me 'full cover' on all runners. I've now backed the 4 possible winners (varying stakes) at the following odds:

Jenson Button 66-1
Rubens Barrichello 125-1
Sebastian Vettel 40-1
Mark Webber 33-1

The ironic thing is that I suspect that it will be a Button/Brawn win for the F1 Championship and all my laying off to gaurantee the profits will have been both costly an unnecessary. However, I've been able to do this at sensible prices thereby reducing my return by 'only' 20% (I'll do the exact maths later). I can also sleep at night rather than worrying about Button having a season ending accident.

Lisbon Treaty not to be passed by Irish - 9/2 - 7pts

In approx. one months time, the Southern Irish will vote for a second time on the Lisbon Treaty. The original vote last year had the the following outcome

Yes - 46%
No - 53%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland_Bill,_2008

The latest polls look good for the 'Yes' campaign

Yes - 46%
No - 29%
Don't Know - 25%

However, at a similar point in the campaign last year to today (i.e. one month before the poll), the polling was

Yes - 35%
No - 18%
Don't Know - 47%

My assessment is that we are in a similar position this year re: voting intentions one month before the vote. With so many undecided voters, the outcome is realtively uncertain. If the 'Don't Know's' split accoring to the current Yes/No split, it is a clear win for the 'Yes' vote. However, if the 'Don't Know's' split like they did last time, the outcome would be Yes 52%/No 48% ie. a narrow 'Yes' win.

The previous polling earlier in the summer was

Yes - 54%
No - 28%
Don't Know - 18%

If you factor in this information i.e that the momentum is clearly with the 'No' campaign, I think the vote could be close. I certainly expect that neither side is likley to get more than 55% of the vote. I've therefore backed the 'No' outcome at 9/2 with Paddypower.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0904/1224253822439.html

Barclays - Vijay Singh - 2pts E/W - 40/1

Backing at new course (Liberty National) is a bit of a lottery, but there are good reasons to think Vijay Singh coudl do well this week. Liberty National is said to be similar to Whistling Straits where Vijay Singh won the USPGA in 2004. He has decent recent form (6th in the Colonial, 7th in the AT&T, 16th in the USPGA). I'm having a speculative 2pts E/W at 40-1.

5th Ashes Test to finish in 3rd Session Sunday - 7-1 - 1pt Ladbrokes

I think Ladbrokes have seriously mis-judged the price on the 5th Test ending today in the 3rd (final) seession. With possible rain tomorrow, England will be as keen as possible to wrap up the test (and series) today. Hopefully Swann can make serious inroads into the Aussies. I'd make a finish today in the 3rd session a 5/2 chance. Unfortuntaley, Ladbrokes have only allowed me 1pt (£25) at 7/1 - I tried to have 4 pts (£100). Disappointingly, bet limits at bookies are becoming a fairly common occurence for me, and no other bookie has this market open.

Notts County v Dagenham & Redbridge - Dagenham to win - 9/2 - 4pts

Since backing Notts County at 10/1 for the Divison 2 Title pre-season, I've taken a lot closer interest in Divison 2. Notts County are now 7/4 chances, a price which I think is fa too short - I;d make them at least a 5/1 chance. Their opening two wins were against weak teams (Bradford and Macclesfield) and defeat away at Chesterfield mid week showed they should never be such short price for this divison. The only reason they are tis price is the large liabilities the bookies have, having been backed at all rates down from 33/1. Unfortunately, there is little liquidity at Betfair to lay them, so I have taken an alternative approach.

I think Dagenham are too long a price for the Divion 2 at 18/1 at Coral. I'm currently considering backing them outright for the divison, but I'm nervous what Notts Cunty could do in the transfer market mid season. While I make a final decsion this morning, I've backed them at 9/2 away at Notts County today. Dagenham have made an execllent start, winning all three games. Manager John Still has made some astute pre-season purchases and maanged to hold on to (some) of the key players.

The generally availible 9/2 on Dagenham today is too big (it was 5/1 yesterday) - I'd make it a 5/2 chance.

Solheim Cup - 8pts win - Europe - 9/2

The results (with locations) are the Solheim Cup are as follows:

1990 - USA - USA 11.5 Europe 4.5
1992 - Europe - Europe 11.5 USA 6.5
1994 - USA - USA 13 Europe 7
1996 - Europe - USA 17 Europe 11
1998 - USA - USA 16 Europe 12
2000 - Europe - Europe 14.5 USA 11.5
2002 - USA - USA 15.5 Europe 12.5
2003 - Europe - Europe 17.5 USA 10.5
2005 - USA - USA 15.5 Europe 12.5
2007 - Europe - USA 15 Europe 12

At first glance, it looks like USA are highly likley to win, having won all 5 events on their soil. However, I think this year could be much closer. Although USA have the highest ranked players, there is only really a signficant diffenece betwen the teams for the players ranked 9-12. These lower ranked players will only play on Day 3 in the singles. The players ranked 1-8 are much closer in ranking and ability and these will be the players will play the 4ball/4somes on Friday/Saturday. The European players also have better recent form.

European golfers tend to overachieve in matchplay as

- it is a not so common format in the US so Europeans have more experience
- Eurpoeans typiclaly have a better team spirit

I think the Europeans will take a lead into the singles on Sunday (when it may make sense to lay them), and may hold on. I'd make them a 2/1 chane to win this event.

Premiership - Stadium with Most Goals - Emirates - Skybet - 9/1 - 4 pts

Skybet have also opened a market on which Premiership ground will have the most goals and have priced the Emirates at 9/1. Nothing has significantly changed from my analysis 2 days ago so I've 'topped' up my intial 2 pts at Boylesports with a further 4 pts at Skybet (I tried to have a further 8pts, but was restricted).

Mens 100m - Tyson Gay - 2pts 16-1

Usain Bolt is a truly awesome athlete, but in what I think is a two horse race I can't resist backing Tyson Gay at 16/1. He ran 9.77 last month in Rome and if he gets a fast start (as expected) there is a chance he will hold off Bolt. Bolt ran 9.69 in the Olympics, but has 'only' run similar times to Tyson Gay this year (post car accident). I would make Gay a 10/1 chance (at most), hence I'm having 2pts at 16/1 on him.

Paula Radcliffe - SPOTY 2009 - 4pts - 66/1 - Ladbrokes

Paula Radcliffe has just won the New York Half Marathon. Participation in the World Championship Marathon is not confirmed, but I think likely. I have had a further 4pts @ 66-1 on her for SPOTY (to go with my 50-1 on Ennis and 200-1 on Daley). My complete is thus:

8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 28/1)

Premiership - Stadium with Most Goals - Emirates - Boylesports - 9/1 - 4 pts

The record for the Premiership Ground with the most goals is as follows:

2008-2009 Hawthorns
2007-2008 White Hart Lane
2006-2007 Emirates
2005-2006 Highbury
2004-2005 Highbury
2003-2004 White Hart Lane
2002-2003 Highbury
2001-2002 Highbury
2000-2001 Stamford Bridge
1999-2000 Old Trafford

I have highligted the Arsneal grounds - they have had the most goals 5 of the last 10 years. Wenger has not changed his attacking philosophy in teh opast 10 years so I don't think there is any reason why the Emirates shoudln't be strong favourite. I think the 9/1 on the Emirates seeing the most goals is excellent value.

I tried to have 10 pts on the Emirates at 9/1, but was restricted to 2 pts.

Premiership - First Manager to leave position - David Moyes - 50/1 (1pt), 40/1 (4pts)

David Moyes has had a very sucessfull time as manager at Everton and is highly rated by Chairman Bill Kenwright. However, the Lescott saga could have significant repurcussions. Moyes has made it clear that he doesn't want Lescott to leave. At the Press conferecne yesterday, he made it obvious this is not simply a negotiating strategy to ensure the best possible price is obtained for Lescott.

If Moyes is force to sell Lescott by Everton (unlikely, but possible if Man City make a 'stupid offer') I think Moyes' comments yesterday could make his position untenable. He coudl leave on a 'high' and wait until another high profile job position comes availible (Man Utd?). This is all likley to played out in the next 2 weeks before the transfer window ends, which means is Moyes does levae he will very likely be the first Premieship Manager to do so.

Victor Chandler go 50/1 that he is the first Premieship Manager top leave. I tried to have 4pts, but was limited to 1pt. therfore, to ensure I have the same return, I have had another 4 pts at Coral at 40/1. Interestingly, this outcome is as short as 14/1 at other bookies... I think this is a much more accurate price.

USPGA - Phil Mickleson - 25-1 - 4 pts E/W (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

I'm suprised to see Phil Mickleson 25/1 for the USPGA. He had a poor week last week, finishing 58th at Bridgetone. However, it was a similar scenario before the Masters and US Open this year. In both these Majors, he used the immediately proceeding tournmanet as a 'warm up' event (MC Shell Houston, 59th St. Jude) before going onto good finishes in the Majors (5th in the Masters, 2nd in the US Open).

A previous winner im 2005, Mickleson is well suited by this long course and can demonstrate the old adage that while form is tempoarary, class is permanent. There certainly wouldn't be a more popular winner.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Mickelson

NASCAR - Watkins Glen - Tony Stewart - 7/1 - 4pts win

Tony Stewart has had a great season so far (leading the championship) and has a strong record at Watkins Glen (a road course) (numbers indicated qulaifying position).

08/10/08 Kyle Busch 1 Toyota
08/12/07 Tony Stewart 5 Chevrolet
08/13/06 Kevin Harvick 7 Chevrolet
08/14/05 Tony Stewart 1 Chevrolet
08/15/04 Tony Stewart 4 Chevrolet
08/10/03 Robby Gordon 14 Chevrolet
08/11/02 Tony Stewart 3 Pontiac

He qualified 13th for this race, but that should not cause a major problem. I'd make him a 4/1 chance for this race.

17/2 is availible at Paddy Power, but like Bluesq, thay have limited me to 'buttons'. The 4pts has been placed at Centebet (looks like I will be increasingly using overseas bookmakers).

SPOTY (Bet #3) - Paula Radcliffe - 66/1 Coral - 4pts

I've tried to restrict the number of bets I'm having on SPOTY 2009, but I can't resist having a third bet. The World Athletics Championships in Berlin is a week away and Radcliffe has yet to make a final decision on whether she is fit enough to take part in the Marathon. If she does take part and win this event (a big if), she will be one of the favourites for SPOTY 2009. I think the uncertainty on her (healthy) participation is more than offset by the 66/1 that is availible for SPOTY 2009.

Complete Portfolio
Jessica Ennnis - 8pts - 50/1 (now 11/1)
Tom Daley - 2pts - 200/1 (now 33/1)
Paul Radcliffe - 4pts - 66/1

WGC Bridgestone Preview

Given his record in WGC events (15 from 28), Tiger Woods has an obvious chance of winning this event. His record at this course (Firestone) is 7 wins from 10 events. However, at a best priced 7/4, the bookies are only offering a fair price. He was a similar price last week against a much weaker field, and I am yet to be convinced he is back to his best form. His driving is still not accurate and any wayward drives will be punished here.

With so much taken out of the book, it is possible to back bigger priced runners with excellent chances. The two I have selected against the field are Davis Love III (80/1) and Angel Cabrera (100/1).

Davis Love has an great record in this event - I have made good profits backing him here before (as long term readers of my blog will know!). His recent record is T6th 2007, T4th 2006, T4th 2004, 3rd 2003 (he didn't play last year). He has had decent form this year, playing well on courses where he has previously had success.

Angel Cabrera also has a good record at this course (=4th in 2004 and 2006) and showed at Turnberry when finishing 24th that he is back on form. 100/1 for a recent Major winner (Masters 2009) is an insult - he has a realistic chance of winning this event.

I have had 2pst E/W on both at 1/4 first 5 place terms. N.B. The 80/1 is still availible on Davis Love, but the best you can currently get on Cabrera is 80/1.

Australia to win 3rd Test - 25/1 - 4pts (Betfair)

With good weather forecast for the 4th and 5th Days of the 2rd Test, I think a result is a definite possibility. I considered laying the draw at 1.16, but instead have opted for backing Austrlia at 25/1.

Australia are 1-0 down in the series and they may take a chance with a challenging declaration early on Day 5. The weather looks good for day 4/5, so there are plenty of overs left....(although there is probably a delayed start today, the overs should be made up). The main concern re: the draw is an early finish tomrorow due to bad light.

Of course England could slowly grind out a large total today and this bet is going to look very silly...

Man City to finish Bottom of the Handicap - Premiership (+16 pts)

I believe Man City may not finish as well as expected this year. It is critical they they stregnthen their defence - at the moment that have far too many strikers. However, if they persist in trying to get Terry they run the risk of ending up with no significant defensive purchases. If this happens, I think a 7th-8th finish is a possibility, which would see them (potentially) 'winning' the race to win bottom of the Premierhsip Handicap from +16.

I am far less confident about this bet than the Newcastle wager below - I've had 4 pts on the Man City bet and wouldn't want any more, it is far less value.

Newcastle to finish bottom on the Handicap - Championship (Scratch)

Newcastle are a club in disaray at present. To restore sanity to the club, owner Mike Ashley will need to sell. However, at present the bids are not to his likling. Until a sale is made, it is likley Chris Houghton wil reamin in charge and there will be no new players bought. I am suprised to see Newcastel favourites to win the divsion - I think that a mid-table position is most likely (at best).

I've therefore backed Newcastle to come bottom on the Championship handicap at 14/1 with Skybet. They are off 'scratch' meaning they give up points to all other teams in the division. I think this is an excellent bet = I'd make it a 7/1 chance at most. The only concern will be a another team also doing unexpectedly very badly (as Charlton did last year to scupper my QPR bet). I tried to have 12pts at 14/1 on Newcastle finishing bottom of the handicap, but was restricetd to 4pts.

I missed the 18/1 yesterday... I wasn't expecting the market to move and Newcastle managed this casue this by losing 6-1 yesterday.

N.B. Don't confuse this with the 'Outright Handicap Market'!

SPOTY (Bet #2) - Tom Daley - 200/1 Bluesq - 2pts

I've tried to restrict the number of bets I'm having on SPOTY (hence not backing Flintoff at 33/1, now 5/1), but I can't resist having a second bet on SPOTY 2009 (to go with 8pts on Jessica Ennis at 33/1). Tom Daley has just won the Diving World Chmapionship - if the BBC choose to major on him in their SPOTY 2009 preview, he could be in with a reasonable chance. 200/1 is an insult. I've had 2pst at Bluesq. (William Hill are 3/1! (which is laughably short).

Notts County to win League Two - 10/1 - 14pts win

Notts County had terrible results last season, narrowly avoiding relegation. However, the recent takeover by Munto Finance may have significantly changed the situation. Munto Finance have stated that they wish to get into the Championship in the next 4-5 seasons. The likely "shock" appointment tomorrow of Sven-Goran Eriksson as Director of Football has signalled they are serious about this ambition. Surely Eriksson would only have taken this appointment with a significant financial inducement. If a substantial amount of money is spent on the playing staff in the next 2 weeks, Notts County will have a great chance of winning this division.

I've backed Notts County at the following bookies (all at 10-1)

Victor Chandler - 4pts
Paddy Power - 3pts
BlueSQ - 6pts
SJ - 1pt

These were all the max. bets I was allowed...

Open Golf - Outright Bet (after Rnd 3) - Bryce Molder - 2 pts E/W 50-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) - Ladbrokes, 4 pts Win Betfair (75-1)

Bryce Molder was the final person I crossed off my Open list (at 250-1), leaving Stpehen Ames as my only bet. Bryce Molder has recently been in inspired form with some remarkebly consitent rounds. My concern pre-tournament was that having to play two rounds last Sunday would mean tiredness was an issue - this is claerly not the case.

With Stpehen Ames missing the cut, I've now decided to back Bryce Molder at 50-1. An excellent 67 today means he is on even par, 4 shots behind the leader Tom Watson. Molder has shown today he can handle the windy conditions, likely to be the case tomorrow. I had no doubnt links golf would not be an issue - he played reasonably well links golf in his Amateur career (picked this up in my pre-tournament research!)

I've also placed 4 pts win at 70-1 on Betfair, with a lay back at even money (I've been twice caught with Open Golf losing bets with players who have gone odds on at some point!)

Khan v Kotelnik - Kotelnik to win on points - 5pts - 8/1

I believe Khan is seriously underpriced for this fight. After a first round loss to Prescott (three fights ago) and a win last fight over a 'past it' Barrera, Khan is taking a serious chance by fighting Kotelnik.

Khan is vulnerable to a KO from Kotelnik (7/2), but his trainer Roach will have educated him to try to avoid this (especially as this would be a career ending result for Khan). Kotelnik was able to stand (hard hitting) Maidana in his last fight and go onto win on points, hence I think a KO by Khan (2/1)is unlikely.

I am therefore think a points victory for either boxer are the the most likely possible cenarios. A Kahan points victory at 6/4 is no value. A "suprise" Kotelnik points victory is a definite "runner" and, at 8/1, is a great bet. I'd make it a 3/1 chance.

Open Golf - Stephen Ames to win ROW market - Totesport - 10/1 - 6 pts (1pt E/W Outright market)

I think Stephen Ames to go better than expected in the Open. He last 4 Major results were :

T7 - Missed Cut - T20 - T10

The T7 was in last year's Open when he posted an excellent final round score in windy conditions - there could be similar conditions this year. I've had 1pt E/W on Betfair at prices of 190.0 win/30 place. I've reserved my main bet for the Totesport 'Rest of The World' Market. Totesport have fewer players on their marketcomnpared to other bookies, reducing the risk. (of course Ames is 10/1, shorter than the 25/1 in most ROW markets with other bookies)

The main players in this market are

Villegas
Cabrera
Singh
Weir
Romero
Choi

All of them are capable on their day and could easily win this market, but I don't especially fancy any of these players this week. I've had max. allowed of 6pts (tried to have 10 pts).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Ames

Sports Personality of the Year 2009 - Jessica Ennis - 50-1 - 8pts win

The two shortest in the betting for SPOTY are Jenson Button and Andy Murray.

Jenson Button has a great chance of winning this, but at 4/7 he is not a backable price. With BBC now showing F1, he will get excellent coverage. However, he is not guranteed to win the F1 championship and, and even if he does win, this does not automatically translate to winning the SPOTY 2009.

At 4/1 Andy Murray has a chance, but he didn't finish in the Top 3 last year. As a consequence of 'only' a semi final this year at Wimbledon, as a minimum he wouldl need to win the US Open (and even that would not gurantee a win in SPOTY 2009). I have a suspicion in England he is not especially well liked, as a consequence of some previous unfortunate commments.

With relstively few individual events this year, I've picked Jesscia Ennis to win SPOTY 2009 at 50/1. She is back fit again and has a good chance of winning Gold in the Heptathlon in the World Championships in Berlin this summer. If this happens, I think she is likley to finsih top 3 (and potentially win it ouright). She his taking park today in an Athletics tournament - I've therefore taken the last remaining 50/1 at Corals. I would make her a 10/1 chance.

Graaem Swann - Man of the Match - 1st Ashes Test - 8pts win 14/1

Graeme Swann has an excellent chance of being Man of the Match in the firat test. This ground is likley to take spin (as shown by earlier one day mathces). He is particularly potent against left handers - there are a realtively large number of these in the Asutralian top order. I believe Swann could take a signficant amount of wickets whcih woudl put him in with a great chance of winning MoM. I've managed to get 6pts at 14/1 and 2pts at 16/1

Pietersen to score > 500 runs in the Ashes Test Series - Centrebet - 11/2 - 8 pts

Pietersen has a career test average of 48.3. The bookies think he will score approx 400 runs in the Ashes series, but I think this is an underestimate.

Postives

- Previous Ashes series totals were 490 (in 2005) and 473 (in 2005) with an average of 53.5 i.e. he raises his game against Australia compared to lesser teams
- Australia have a weaker bowling attack than the last two Ashes ** this is the most important **
- I believe Pietersen will be motivated by the loss of being captain

Negatives

- Possible injury worries (although he asys he has recovered form these)
- Will Pietersen gets a chance to bat for 10 innings? ( I think highly likely but could be derailed by injuries and/or weather)

I therefore think that 11/2 on him to score more than 500 runs is a very fair price - I'd make at an approx 3/1 chance (at most).

Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year - 11/2 - Betfred - 2pts win

The 'Racing Post' today highlighted a great bet today on Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year 2009-10. In 15 the last 16 years the Manager who has won the Premier League has also won Premeier Manager of the Year. You are therefore getting effectively 11/2 about a 5/2 chance. I tried to have 16 pts on Ancelotti but was restricted to 2pts.

Tour De France - Fabian Cancellara - 100-1 4 pts E/W

This bet is going to go down as one of my most inspired or my most stupid.

Another day, another "Black Swan". Folliwng today's racing of the Tour de France (first day), second placed Contador has strengthed his position at the top of the market. He is a likely winner, but the three week Tour De France has thrown at many suprises in the past during the competition e.g. failed drug tests. I'm therefore not tempted at even money.

Instead, I have had a speculative 4 pts E/W at Ladbrokes at 100-1 on Cancellara (who won todays time trial by 20s). Most people will think this is complete nonsense as Cancellara is considered "just" a time trial specialist. However, he showed in the recent Tour of Switzerland that he can build up a sufficient lead in the time trials to win the overall event (by staying competitive in the mountains).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_Cancellara
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Tour_de_Suisse

Certainly past winner Stephen Roche thinks that a high overall finish is not impossible. Cancellara's (alleged) weight loss of 7 kg may have just been the what is required to stay competitive in the French mountains.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/stephen-roche-tips-contador-and-cancellara-for-tour

This bet complements my 4pt win bet placed last year on Lance Armstrong at 16-1 when he announced his comback (now top priced 13-2).

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2009 - Guadeloupe - 2pts E/W - 100/1

A signficant numnber of the leading contenders for this tournamnet are fiedling sub-strength teams. This means one of the outsiders could go deep into the tournament. I think a possible 'Black Swan' are Guadeloupe. As they are not a FIFA memeber, their ability is more difficult to judge.

Most of the Guadeloupe players play in the French League so consequently play to a reasonable standard. Their first appearance in the Gold Cup in 2007 saw them make the semi-finals went out 1-0 to Mexico. They are in a relatively weak group (Group C). I am confident they will qaulify from the Group stage, probably in 2nd place behind Mexico. They could even top it due to Mexico fielding a youth team

There is no way there should be 100-1 (outright) chances. I've tried to have 4 pts E/W but have been restricted to 1 pt E.W at 2 bookmakers (making a total investment of 2pts EW). I've also had 1pt at 33-1 on Guadeloupe to win Group C - I tried to have 4pts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadeloupe_national_football_team

F1 2009 Championship - Mark Webber - 12pts win -33/1

After 8 of 17 races the standing are as follows:

01 Jenson Button 64
02 Rubens Barrichello 41
03 Sebastian Vettel 39
04 Mark Webber 35.5

(Trulli is next at 21.5)

I think the F1 Championship is now between the Brawn and the Red Bull Drivers. Red Bull Bull have made signficant progress with their car, as demonstrated by their 1-2 in the British Grand Prix. With less than half the season gone, it would not be impossible for one of the Red Bull drivers to overtake Button in the Championship (although clearly Button is still by far the most likely winner).

However, I'm very suprised to see the differnec in price between Vettel (10-3) and Webber (33-1). I've given a lot of thought and I really can't see why they are so different in price. I'd have made the book:

Button 1/3
Vettel 7/1
Webber 9/1
Barrichello 40/1

I therefore think Webber is great value at 33-1 (complements my 50-1 on Button and 125-1 on Barrichello). I've had to be imaginative how to get £300 on - I was restriceted at virtually all bookies to a few pounds. Fortunately, William Hill allowed me £3 max. online and £100 without question in cash in their shops. If you are going to cut off winning punters, at least try and do it consistently across all channels!

US Open - Michael Sim - 600/1

I think I have found a 'Black Swan' in Micheal Sim. He has had an oustanding record on the Nationwide Tour in 2009:

http://www.pgatour.com/players/02/68/82/

The fact he is playing on the Nationwide Tour means he has slipped under the radar, much like the Open winner Todd Hamilton who was similarly unfancied at 500-1 when playing on the Japanese Tour. I've had the following bets:

1pt Win 600-1 (Betfair
1.5 pts E/W 300-1 (Bluesq 1/3 1-5 / Boylesports 1/4 1-6)
4pts Win Top Australian 16-1 ... (Ogilvy is a massive danger for this bet)

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Queen Anne Stakes - Alexandros - 2pts - 10/1 - Betfred

The Godolphin/Frankie Dettori combination have had great succes in this race in the past (although they have a generally poor Ascot record). Godolphin have two runners in this race, Gladiatorus and Alexandros. Gladiatorus (partnered by Ajtebi) beat Alexandros at Nad Al Sheba and a repetition of this form will see Gladiatorus most likley win this race

This was an oustanding performance, but form at Nad Al Sheba is not certain to transfer to other tracks (and there is a possibility that Gladiatorus could 'bounce') . At 9/4, I'm therefore not backing Gladiatorus. I've instead backed Dettori's runner Alexandros (the Godolphin 'second string'). Alxendros was unlucky in the Lockinge (a key 'trial' for this race) when second to Virtual (Dettori lost his whip in the final furlonmg).

Alexandros is (wrongly in my opinion) seen as not much more than a top class handicapper. I think he is better than that and will not need much of a progression in ability to take this race (asuuming Gladiatorus does not show the same ability as at Nad Al Sheba). I have significant concerns about others in the race. Will Paco's Boy stay 1m on a straight track? - I think Paco's Boy is poor value at 7/2 having been beaten fairly and squarely in the Lockinge by Alexandros over 1m. Aqlaam will need to recover from a poor run in the Lockinge (when clearly something was amiss). If he does, he could be a massive danger - at 10/1 he is a reasonable price as well.

I've therefore had 2pts at 10/1 at Betfred on Alexandros.

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Kings Stand Stakes - Mythical Flight - 2pts - 25/1 - William Hill

Overseas raiders have an execllent record in the Kings Stand Stakes and are consistently underated. The Australian runner Scenic Blast has a great chance at 7/2 but, at a bigger price (25/1), I've backed Mythical Flight. In his last two races, this South African runner raced twice over 6f in the Far East. In these races he clearly looked like he would benefit from a drop back to 5f. Mythical Prince has a bit to find on the form, but 25/1 is a generous price.

Epsom Derby - Golden Sword - 1pt E/W 50/1

I think Golden Sword is overpriced at 50/1. He ran an excellent trial, winning the Chester Vase. This proves he stays the Derby trip (1m 4f), a doubt for many of the other Derby runners. The consesus is he 'stole' the race from the runner up, which has detracted many from looking at the strict form of the race (which I believe is underated). The race was run in a quick time and the form was franked via the Oaks yesterday. He is likley to have a front running role (like in the Chester Vase) and could easily grab a place.

I tried to have 2pts E/W at Victor Chalder, but was limited to 1 pt E/W.... I guess it is only one of the biggest flat horses races in the world!

Lay off Button/Brawn bets made with UK bookies.

Those who follow my blog will know I was heavily involved with Button/Brawn pre-season at 'fancy' prices after the testing at Jerez. I believe that the next 2 races (Turkey/UK) will suit the Ferrai & Red Bull teams so I am taking the opportunity to lock in the profit made on bets with UK bookies (bets I am confident will be paid out if they win). I've therefore had the follwoing bets:

Original UK bets:

2pts Brawn at 80/1 (Corals)
4 pts E/W Button at 40/1 (Corals), 1.5 pts E/W 40/1 Button (Boylesports), 1 pt Win Button at 40/1 (William Hill)
(all Max Bets allowed online)

Layoff bets - Brawn:

8 pts at 13/2 with Stan James for Brawn NOT to win the F1 Chmaionship (this was a special price quoted on request from me). (Max allowed).
Lay at 1.23 won Brawn at Betfair to win 80 pts is Brawn do NOT win (risk of 18 pts).

If Brawn Win (1/4 chance), I win 160-8-18=134 (=£3.35K)
If Brawn Lose (4/1 chance), I win 52+80-2=130 (=£3.25K)

Layoff bet - Button:

44 pts at 4/1 on Button with William Hill NOT to win F1 Championship (thsi bet iss availible online, a great price as the Betfaire lay price is 1.33)

If Button wins (1/4 chance), I win 260+55-44=271 (=£6.78K)
If Button loses (4/1 chance), I win 176-12=164 (=£4.1K)

I have not include the US bookmakers for certain reasons that will become clear ... the phrase 'papable error' is coming into play :(

O'Brien Derby Specials -First 4/First 5 in the Derby

The field has been confirmed for the Derby at the 5 day declaration stage and it as as follows (O'Brien horses in bold).

Fame And Glory 3-1
Sea The Stars 7-2
Rip Van Winkle 6-1
Gan Amhras 8-1
Black Bear Island 8-1
Masterofthehorse 14-1
Kite Wood 25-1
Age Of Aquarius 25-1
Crowded House 28-1
Golden Sword 33-1
South Easter 40-1
Montaff 50-1
Debussy 50-1

I think he has a real chance of at least having the first 4 home. (I could probably do some statistical analysis to prove it - any voulnteers?). I have therefore backed two possibilities (not mutually exclusive).

Aiden O'Brien to have the first 4 home - 1pt @ 20-1, 1 pt @ 28-1
Aiden O'Brien to have the fisrt 5 home - 1pt @ 50-1, 1 pt @ 125-1

(The lower prices are still avilible at willhill.com (first 4), vcbet.com (first 5)).

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I've had a couple of requests for an RSS feed ... so I've added one. Just click on the icon to the right to subscribe using your preferred RSS update method. Can someone let me know if it works OK!

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France Open - Women - Carla Suarez Navarro - 3pts win 100-1,1 pt Place (E/W 1,2)

I think there a major doubts about most of the leading contenders in the Womens French Open. I've therefore found an outsider who could be value. Spaniard Suaraez Navarro has excellent clay form and saves her best performances for Grand Slam events. She made the QF here last year, and has a reasonable chance of progressing further this year - the 25-1 at William Hill looks more correct.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carla_Suarez_Navarro

I did want to have 2pts E/W at 100-1 but Ladbrokes restricted me to 1 pt E/W. I've had the other 2pt win at 120-1 at Centrebet.

Turin v Genoa - Genoa to win - 6-1 - 10 pts win

I normally steer clear of betting on individual footabll matches as the markets are usually very accurate. The only time I believe there is significant value is at the end of the season when bookies tend to underprice those teams who have to win (e.g. Sunderalnd V Chelsea where Sunderland are poor value).

Seria A is notorious dangerous to bet on at the end of season as results that would favour both teams are especially short (e.g. a draw in the Chievo v Bologna match today at 4-7!). I don't lay these 'short' prices as the results seem to occur just as often as the odds suggest.

Despite these reservations, Genoa must be fantastic value today at 6-1. The bookies has priced this match up assuming Genoa have nothing to play for. Genoa (currently 5th) have already secured a Europa League place but realistically need to win this game to have a chance of finishing fourth and getting a Champions League Place. The Genoa manager has given no hint that he will be taken this game easy - his pre-match commnent state quite the reverse. Turin are 17th, just above releagtion, and will be desperate for three points but wanting three points and getting them are two different matters.

P.S. I've also had 4 pts on Tottenham at 6-1 to beat Liverpool at Anfield today. This is primarily a cover bet as I have backed (earlier in the season) the following results:
- Liverpool to go undefeated at home
- Tottenham to finish 7th
both of whcih (as aa minimum) require a Tottenham win. I also don't think Tottenham are bad value at 6-1.