The next bookie's 2010 prices I have reviewed is William Hill. I have managed to come up with 6 bets which I think are value.
1. Michael Schumacher to have 5+ winners in 2010 F1 Championship. - 7-1 - 20pts Win
Schumacher is now a confirmed 'runner' in the 2010 F1 Season for Merecdes (ex Brawn GP). Ross Brawn is a master race tactician and designer. Brawn GP have been working on the 2010 car since mid season 2009 and I believe are likely to be competitive again. (I don't believe Schumacher would have taken this drive if this wasn't the case). Schmacher has stayed fit so I don't think age is an issue - it is more relevent that he is one of the gretest drivers of all time. He has always outerformed his team mates so I am confident he with do the same wih Rosberg.
Schumacher is currently a 5-1 chance for the 2010 F1 Championship. I think of better value is the 7-1 for 5+ wins. There are 19 races in 2010 so he will need to win > approx. 25% of the races. With rules changes for 2010 (no refulleing, narrower tyes) it is possible a single team will make a fast start (like with Brawn in 2009).
If you look at previous seasons, you can see that often more than one driver scores approx > 25% in a season (3 out of the past 5 years). The reverse is not true ie. no driver has won the chmampionship without scoring > 25% wins.
Past Season Reviews (with drivers who makes approx > 25% criteria in bold):
Top 3 Drivers in each Season
No. of Races Driver/Number of Race Wins/% Wins
2009 17 - Button 6, Vettel 4, Barricello 2
2008 18 - Hamilton 5, Massa 6, Raikkonen 3
2007 17 - Raikkonen 6, Hamilton 4, Alonso 4
2006 18 - Alonso 7, Schumacher 7, Massa 2
2005 19 - Alonso 6, Raikkonen 7, Schmuacher 1
This means either the 5-1 on Schmuchaer for the championship is too short or the 7-1 on 5+ wins is too long (I'm betting on the latter as it is a less popular market). Labrokes do a similar market and make it and approx 4-1 chance - I'd make it an approx 3-1 chance.
2. Any England Bowler to take a Test Match Hatrick - 8-1 - 4pts Win
Suprisingly, England bowlers have taken hatricks relatively often in Test matches (past 20 years reviewed) - 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 i.e approx 1 in every 5 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Test_cricket_hat-tricks
There is a reasonable test program this year (inclusing 2 x test series against Bangladesh) so there is no reason to think this year will have any different chance. BlueSq are going 9/2, a much more accurate price.
3. A European trained winner of the Melbourne Cup 8-1 - 4 pts
On bare reading of stats., 8-1 would seem the approximately correct price as Europe have had two winners in the past 20 years (1992/2003).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Melbourne_Cup_winners
However, we have been very close on several other occasions recently. I think the BlueSQ price of 3/1 is slighly too short (but a more accurate price than 8-1 - I'd make it an approx. 9/2 chance).
4. Capello to receive a Knighthood in 2010 - 100/1 - 4pts win
England are an approx 6-1 for the World Cup. Whilst I think this is too short, I would still make them no more than a 10-1 chance. If England win the World Cup, I think there is good chance (even money?) that Capello will be awarded an (honourary) Knighthood at end 2010. Ramsey receive a knighthood for 1966, and in these 'celeb' times, there is no reason to think that Capello won't also recieve one. I'd make this an approx 20-1 chance.
5. Pete Doherty to receive a custodial sentence in 2010 - 5-1 - 4pts win
Doherty is treading a very fine line with continual drug (re)offences. I cannot see the judicary allowing him many more chances. He also has potential crimianl proceedings for a hit and run incident (primarily invovling his manager).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Doherty
6. First Celeberity Couple to Divorce in 2010 - Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes- 50-1 - 2pts Win
Tiger & Erin Woods are far too short at 1-3 to be the first couple to divorce, meaning there has to be value at on the other runners. I can't suggest I am an expert in this area, but I think (divorcee) Cruise may have a 'rocky' year. I'm going to have to get a subscription to Heat.
Full list of runners (and odds) below
Tiger and Erin Woods 1/3
Kerry Katona and Mark Croft 4/1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie 7/1
Ashley and Cheryl Cole 10/1
Charlotte Church and Gavin Henson 16/1
Roger and Mirka Federer 25/1
Wayne and Coleen Rooney 33/1
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 50/1
David and Victoria Beckham 50/1
5 comments:
Schumacher bet already now 6/1
Capello - I noticed this too but I'm unsure how it would be settled. Due to the date of the world cup, Capello wouldn't be honoured in the mid year honours, but would have to be honoured in the Dec 31st 2010 honours list. Now, would this qualify as 'being knighted'? I suspect not due to the odds being so long. I can't find anything definitive, but looking at the period between when Hoy was told he was to be knighted (Dec 31st 2008) and when he has actually kneeling down (mid 2009), I don't think WillHill would settle in our favour... TE
I had the same concern so I check with William Hill - tehy exact wording is
'Regarding your concern, just as long as the Honuors List is announced before December 2010 ends and Fabio Capello is included, then any bets on the selection in question would be considered as a winning bet.'
so I think a 31st Dec 2010 announcement would be a winner.
Lampard and Bleakey to get engaged
capello down to 20s now, which is a shame since my mobile betting account wasn't working earlier and i missed all the 100s and 50s. I still think 20s is not a bad bet and I can't cope with thinking about not making this bet when england are in the world cup. thus taken a little of the 20s though its marginal value at best.
tom cruise is also down, although SJ also offer similar market but restricted me to a 30p bet! jokers!
Post a Comment