The next bookie's 2010 prices I have reviewed is William Hill. I have managed to come up with 6 bets which I think are value.
1. Michael Schumacher to have 5+ winners in 2010 F1 Championship. - 7-1 - 20pts Win
Schumacher is now a confirmed 'runner' in the 2010 F1 Season for Merecdes (ex Brawn GP). Ross Brawn is a master race tactician and designer. Brawn GP have been working on the 2010 car since mid season 2009 and I believe are likely to be competitive again. (I don't believe Schumacher would have taken this drive if this wasn't the case). Schmacher has stayed fit so I don't think age is an issue - it is more relevent that he is one of the gretest drivers of all time. He has always outerformed his team mates so I am confident he with do the same wih Rosberg.
Schumacher is currently a 5-1 chance for the 2010 F1 Championship. I think of better value is the 7-1 for 5+ wins. There are 19 races in 2010 so he will need to win > approx. 25% of the races. With rules changes for 2010 (no refulleing, narrower tyes) it is possible a single team will make a fast start (like with Brawn in 2009).
If you look at previous seasons, you can see that often more than one driver scores approx > 25% in a season (3 out of the past 5 years). The reverse is not true ie. no driver has won the chmampionship without scoring > 25% wins.
Past Season Reviews (with drivers who makes approx > 25% criteria in bold):
Top 3 Drivers in each Season
No. of Races Driver/Number of Race Wins/% Wins
2009 17 - Button 6, Vettel 4, Barricello 2
2008 18 - Hamilton 5, Massa 6, Raikkonen 3
2007 17 - Raikkonen 6, Hamilton 4, Alonso 4
2006 18 - Alonso 7, Schumacher 7, Massa 2
2005 19 - Alonso 6, Raikkonen 7, Schmuacher 1
This means either the 5-1 on Schmuchaer for the championship is too short or the 7-1 on 5+ wins is too long (I'm betting on the latter as it is a less popular market). Labrokes do a similar market and make it and approx 4-1 chance - I'd make it an approx 3-1 chance.
2. Any England Bowler to take a Test Match Hatrick - 8-1 - 4pts Win
Suprisingly, England bowlers have taken hatricks relatively often in Test matches (past 20 years reviewed) - 1995, 1999, 2004, 2008 i.e approx 1 in every 5 years.
There is a reasonable test program this year (inclusing 2 x test series against Bangladesh) so there is no reason to think this year will have any different chance. BlueSq are going 9/2, a much more accurate price.
3. A European trained winner of the Melbourne Cup 8-1 - 4 pts
On bare reading of stats., 8-1 would seem the approximately correct price as Europe have had two winners in the past 20 years (1992/2003).
However, we have been very close on several other occasions recently. I think the BlueSQ price of 3/1 is slighly too short (but a more accurate price than 8-1 - I'd make it an approx. 9/2 chance).
4. Capello to receive a Knighthood in 2010 - 100/1 - 4pts win
England are an approx 6-1 for the World Cup. Whilst I think this is too short, I would still make them no more than a 10-1 chance. If England win the World Cup, I think there is good chance (even money?) that Capello will be awarded an (honourary) Knighthood at end 2010. Ramsey receive a knighthood for 1966, and in these 'celeb' times, there is no reason to think that Capello won't also recieve one. I'd make this an approx 20-1 chance.
5. Pete Doherty to receive a custodial sentence in 2010 - 5-1 - 4pts win
Doherty is treading a very fine line with continual drug (re)offences. I cannot see the judicary allowing him many more chances. He also has potential crimianl proceedings for a hit and run incident (primarily invovling his manager).
6. First Celeberity Couple to Divorce in 2010 - Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes- 50-1 - 2pts Win
Tiger & Erin Woods are far too short at 1-3 to be the first couple to divorce, meaning there has to be value at on the other runners. I can't suggest I am an expert in this area, but I think (divorcee) Cruise may have a 'rocky' year. I'm going to have to get a subscription to Heat.
Full list of runners (and odds) below
Tiger and Erin Woods 1/3
Kerry Katona and Mark Croft 4/1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie 7/1
Ashley and Cheryl Cole 10/1
Charlotte Church and Gavin Henson 16/1
Roger and Mirka Federer 25/1
Wayne and Coleen Rooney 33/1
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes 50/1
David and Victoria Beckham 50/1