Monday, December 29, 2008

Two Premiership players of the same team to be sent off for fighting in 2009 - 25/1 - 1 pt

The last time two Premiership players of the same team were sent off for fighting was in 2005 (Dyer/Boyer for Newcstle).

Before that, Le Saux/Batty had a (onfield) fight in 1995 in Moscow while playing for Blackburn - if this happened in the Premier League, both players would have been red carded. To me, this looks like an approx 10/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Will Hill at 25/1 but they restricted me to 1 pt.

N.B. Both Coral and Hills now have there '2009 Specials' online - if anyone and see any value bets, please post in the comments. Thanks.

Stone Roses to reform (7/1) , The Smiths to reform (5/1) in 2009 (2pts on each) - BlueSQ

Increasingly bands are reforming (probably mostly for financial reasons). Record companies are happy to pay hansomely, knowing the bands have fanbase ready to buy music/attend concerts. I'm therfore having 2pts on each of 'The Stone Roses' and 'The Smiths' reforming in 2009. In both cases, there is a band member holding out, but in each case they may be persuaded....

Cipriani/Brook to marry in 2009 - 2 pts - 33/1 BlueSQ

Cipriani and Brook are currrenly an item. How likely are they to marry in 2009? Without knowing them personally, an attempt to place odds on this is quite tricky. There are indications in the press (see below) that it is at least being considered in which case there are plenty of financial incentives to help with a 'positive' decision e.g. a lucrative OK magazine deal. My 'gut feel' is that this should be, at most, a 10/1 chance. I'm having 2pts at 33/1 at BlueSQ

Hull to qualify for Europe - 25/1 - 2 pts - BlueSq

I believe that Hull has a reasonable chance of qualifying for Europe. There are several ways that they can achieve this:

- Champions League - very unlikely
- UEFA Cup - possible

UEFA Cup qualification could come through the FA Cup, Premier League , Inter Toto Cup, Fairplay league etc....they probably need to either win the FA Cup (100/1), lose to a top 4 side in the FA Cup (33/1?) in the FA Cup Final or finish Top 7 in Premier League (16/1?). I think that it is an approximate 10/1 chance for at least one of these to happen. I'm therefore having 2pts at 25/1 on Hull to qualify for Europe in 2009.

(I tried to have 8pts but BlueSQ restricted me).

Aiden O'Brien to win all five Irish Classics - 66/1 - 2 pts win - Bluesq

Aiden O'Brien is increasingly dominating the Irish Flat Racing scene, as can be demonstrated by his record in the five Irish classics in the last 3 years:

2006 - 2 wins
2007 - 3 wins
2008 - 5 wins

BlueSq are going a generous 66/1 on him achiveing his 2008 clean sweep again in 2009. I think this is probably a 10/1 chance at most - it is a top priced 25/1 at other bookies. I'm therfore having 2pst on this.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Monty Panesar to win 'Beard of the Yaer' 2009 - 2pst - 16/1 - Bluesq

The 'Beard of the Year' award is made by the Beard Liberation Front:

Monty Panesar has a good record in this event and could be due a possible win in BOTY. He won this award in 2006 and finished Top 3 in 2007. Interestingly, a cricketer also won this award in 2004/5 - there is probably an overlap between followers of cricket and voters in this event. Cricket has not been especially high profile this year, but there are no obvious other front runners I can think off.

I would make Panesar an approx 5/1 chance to win this award (although it is a difficult to market to judge). I've had 2pts at 16/1 with BlueSq.

Jockey to finish in the Top 10 in BBC SPOTY 2009

I think Bluesq have seriously underestimated the chances of a Jockey fishing in the Top 10 of SPOTY 2009. The woeful amount of coverage given by the BBC to this year's racing on SPOTY (< 1 min) shouldn't detract from the possibility that a jockey could be Top 10 next year. Indeed, it is only in 2006 that Frankie Dettori made the Top 3.

So what would it take for UK Sports Editors (who vote for the Top 10) to make a Jockey part of it? The immediate possibilities I can think of are:

- Keiran Fallon - returns this year and if he had a successful return (e.g success in the Breeders Cup) could be selected. I'm sure Lester Piggott would have made the Top 10 on his return.
- Hayley Turner -I think she will become one of the outstanding jockeys of her generation (of either sex). If she has a successful season and wins a series of high profile races (or becomes the first women jockey to win any Classic) she will likely be Top 10.
- Any jockey (Jumps/Flat) going through the card (as Frankie Dettori did at Ascot in 1996).

I'd make this bet an approx 5/1 chance - the 50/1 is great value. I've tried to have 8 pts at 50/1 and have been restricted (not unreasonably) to 2pts.

I;m sure there are many others

Sharon Osbourne to return to X Factor in 2009 - 2 pts - 10/1 - Bluesq

It has been suggested that Danni Minogue may be leaving X Factor (she is thought to be too similar to Cheryl Cole who is more popular with the public). It would not be impossible for Sharon Osbourne to return (Louis Walsh was brought back). Indeed, there have been rumours to suggest this.

I think the 10/1 on Sharon Osbourne returning in 2009 is reasonably generous. I think it should be an approx 4/1 chance (although trying to judge the correct prices is notriously difficult for both bookies and punters alike).

Phil Taylor to win all 2008 TV Touranenst - 2pts - 33/1 - Stan James

Anyone who know anything about sport will tell you that Phil Taylor is one of the most underrated sportsmen (how he doesn't make Top 10 in Sports Personality of the Year in most years is a disgrace).

Since the 2007/8 World Championships, Phil Taylor has been in sensational form. In subsequent live TV tournaments, in only lost one of event (and that was only narrowly). I think that Stan James are taking a chance by quoting Phil Taylor at 33/1 to win the eight live TV events. I think he will be odds on for all these events and, as the year progresses, if he continues to win he will get progressively shorter priced.

I would make it a 16/1 chance at most. I've had 2 pts. at 33/1.

(Events listed below)
Premier League, US Open, UK Open, Las Vegas Desert Classic, World Matchplay, World Grand Prix, World Championship 2009/10, Grand Slam Of Darts.

New Year Specials - Updates Ahead

This is the time of year when Bookies make 'New Year Special Bets' available. Most are awful value, but there is an occasional standout bet. I've found a few and will be putting them online over the new few days. The only downside is bookies claiming these agreed bets are 'palpable errors'(as happened to me last year). Not sure what can be done to protect the punter against this - any comments gratefully appreciated.

** Anyone see any bets that think are value, please post in the comments. Thanks ***

Friday, December 05, 2008

IACGMOH - Lay Joe Swash at 1.2 - 4pts (to win 19 pts - Betfair)

There have been plenty of shocks in the final night of reality TV series, not least in IACGMOH. These shocks (I believe) are due to the increased voting on the night by individuals who haven't voted before and who are unduly influenced by the actions on the night. This is especially true for IACGMOH where the individual doing the nastiest i.e eating 'bushtucker trial' can get more votes than expected. For this reason, I'm laying the 'good thing' Joe Swash at 1-5.