Sunday, April 27, 2008
Ladbrokes has priced up a 'Best of the Rest' Market for the Spanish Grand Prix. This is a market without the Ferrari, McClaren and BMW cars. Alonso is a predictably short price (4/7) due to his second on the grid. However, this was achieved by 'short fuelling' his car - his actual race pace is simnilar to his temmate Piquet. Alonso will have to stop early for his first pit stop (and may even make an extra 3rd stop) which could seriously damage his finishing position.
I've opposed Alonso with Barrichello. The Honda cars have a new areo package this weekend which has made their car more competitive. Barichello is 11th on the grid, enabling him to put a heavy amount of fuel in his car for a long distance to his first fuel stop (the top 10 cannot change their fuel levels).
I've had 1pt E/W at 20/1 on Barichhello (1/4 1,2,3) - this place part of this makes particular appeal (the book has a good shape for place bets due to the 4/7 favourite).
All credit to Ladbrokes for fomring an annovative market. However, I had to ring Ladbrokes to get this bet on as my online account has been restriced. They still wouldn't let me have the 2pts E/W I wanted! My Skybet online account has now also been restriced to 1/100 of stakes for 'normal' punters. This looks like it could be becoming a problem.....
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
I've taken a keen interest in the 21 Year Old Chinese rising star Liang Wembo (prior to World Championship) due to his excellent break building record. As this was his first major tournament, there were unknowns regarding how his temperament would hold up in the World Championship. However, these doubts have been removed in the first round - he has shown impressive form beating Ken Doherty 10-5. The pre-tournament 200/1 has long since disappeared but the 33/1 is still a good price - I'd make him an approx 12/1 chance.
The only player in the same quarter he should fear is Ronnie O'Sullivan, however O'Sullivan has already showed yet again temperament issues in his first game. He easily go out before the last eight - he is no certantity to go through the 1st round (5-4 up overnight).
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Betfair has a market on which Democratic candidate will score the most % in Pennsylvania (Tuesday). Obama is currently trading at 11/2. I think he has an approx 25% chance of winning i.e. should be a 3/1 chance. He is approximately 5% behind in the average of polls, (3% in the latest) - that is a very narrow lead in a two horse race. I'm having 8 pts on Obmaa to spring a shock and have a suprise victory (which will end Clinton's camapaign).
Update An (anonymous) leak form the Clinto Canpign to the Dridge Report has her (alledgedlY) 11pts adhead.
I don't believe these numbers - it contradicts all previosuly reliable polls. Howveer it has moved the market against Obama. A properly considered analysis has her currently winning 51-49 i.e. too close to call.
Below is an execllent article explaining why Obama might win (and expalins why I think the 7/1 availible is a great price - I'd had a further 4pts at this price).
Saturday, April 19, 2008
With Halcon Generlardis running off top weight, only three horses carry their correct weight. Halcon Generaldis is 5lb better off with Miko De Beauchene following their 1-2 in the Welsh National. I'd therefore expect Halcon Gereladis to reverse places with Mike De Beauchene. A 13lb rise from the Welsh National is a concern, although his last performance (4th in the Gold Cup) was respectable. Both these horses and Opera Mundi (the othe run the handicap proper) will be probably unsuited by the drying ground - there is a chance that some (or all) of these horse will be withdrawn come race time.
Running of an incorrect weight is obviously a disadvantage, but not insurmountable - 2/10, 10/25 (wins/years) have won in this way. If any trainer will overcome this, it is Ferdy Murphy who has an excellent record in this race (3 wins form last 10). He has two runners in the race (Leading Man, Noir et Vert). Leading Man proved he stays 4m on good ground with his last run at Doncaster. Noir et Vert has been laid out for this race and the drying ground will be a signficant help (together with a good claimer who handily removes some weight).
It is a close call between Noir et Vert and Leading Man, but I'm siding Leading Man -I'm having 2pts win @ 14/1
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Yorkshire finished mid-table last year, with a record of W-D-L of 4-4-8, but just 27 pts behind the winners Sussex in a very competitive Divison One. For a long part of the season they were competitive for a top 3 finish.
Bowling - With the signing of Naved-Ul-Hasan they have strengthend their bowling - he played a signficant part in helping Sussex to the title win last year. He will join Hoggard, Gough and young leg-spinner Adil Rashid to make a potent bowling force. (Hoggard is likley to miss out on a Test place, to Yorshire's benefit).
Batting - The batting lineup was strong last year (they scored the most bonus points). The top scorer was Rudolph with 'just' 1,078 runs, indicating they have strength in depth. (Vaughan is not required for the One day team, again to Yorkshire's benefit).
It is difficult to see Yorksire finishing Outside the Top 3 - however, instead of going E/W (1/5 1,2,3) I'm backing them to win the Division. I thnk they should probably be an approx 5-1/6-1 chance.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
The record of players in the final 2 ball pairing is outstanding in the Masters, so Immelman (-11) is clearly the most likely winner. With 18 holes to go, I can see the following scenario unfolding:
- Woods (-5) falls away from adopting a 'Win or Bust' strategy
- Snedeker (-9), Casey (-7) and Flesch (-8) drop shots under the pressure of being amongst the leaders (they have having limted Masters experience)
Cink (-4) has more much Masters experience than the obove players (other than Woods). He is unlikley to win the tournament, but odds of 33-1 are reasonable. I'd expect a score of 69/70 which may well be enough to get him placed (top 3) - I'd make it a 4-1 chance (at most). The other players at -2 or works are probably too far beind to win the tournament.
Most bookies are going 1/3 1,2. Sportingbet how E/W odds of 1/5 1,2,3 which are much more favourable - you are effectively getting 7-1 on him finishing in the top 3. I've therfore had 2pts E/W on Stewart Cink.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
It's great to see many bookies pricing up NASCAR this year. Tonights race is from Texas - a superspeedway - it is quick!
Carl Edwards in car No 99, has been fast all weekend and was disappointed to only 2nd on the grid. However, I expect him to be the man to catch tonight. Most bookmakers make him clear favourite, except William Hill - who go a stand out 6-1. I'm having 4 points on Edwards who is a previous winner at the track. The dangers are Dale Eanrhardt Junior and Matt Kenseth.
In 1997, Tiger Woods managed to win the Masters by an incredible 12 shots. I believe he is capable of producing another performance of this kind again, such is his current dominance of the US PGA Tour this season. I've therefore backed him on the 'Handicap' at Wilson Bet (http://www.wilsonbet.com) at 50/1. Woods gives between 5 shots at 13 1/2 shots to the rest of the field (the number of shots varies from player to player).
(I've had to open an account as I've never used this company before). I've had 2pts E/W at 50/1 on Woods. 1/4 1-5.