Betfair has a market on which Democratic candidate will score the most % in Pennsylvania (Tuesday). Obama is currently trading at 11/2. I think he has an approx 25% chance of winning i.e. should be a 3/1 chance. He is approximately 5% behind in the average of polls, (3% in the latest) - that is a very narrow lead in a two horse race. I'm having 8 pts on Obmaa to spring a shock and have a suprise victory (which will end Clinton's camapaign).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008
Update An (anonymous) leak form the Clinto Canpign to the Dridge Report has her (alledgedlY) 11pts adhead.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashpa.htm
I don't believe these numbers - it contradicts all previosuly reliable polls. Howveer it has moved the market against Obama. A properly considered analysis has her currently winning 51-49 i.e. too close to call.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/21/121146/932/310/500056
Below is an execllent article explaining why Obama might win (and expalins why I think the 7/1 availible is a great price - I'd had a further 4pts at this price).
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/tobyharnden/
april08/obamawinpennsylvania.htm
1 comment:
Chris,
The current Betfair price for Obama +2.5% is 2.02, presumably indicating that opinion does not see Hilary having a large lead...
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