With Halcon Generlardis running off top weight, only three horses carry their correct weight. Halcon Generaldis is 5lb better off with Miko De Beauchene following their 1-2 in the Welsh National. I'd therefore expect Halcon Gereladis to reverse places with Mike De Beauchene. A 13lb rise from the Welsh National is a concern, although his last performance (4th in the Gold Cup) was respectable. Both these horses and Opera Mundi (the othe run the handicap proper) will be probably unsuited by the drying ground - there is a chance that some (or all) of these horse will be withdrawn come race time.
Running of an incorrect weight is obviously a disadvantage, but not insurmountable - 2/10, 10/25 (wins/years) have won in this way. If any trainer will overcome this, it is Ferdy Murphy who has an excellent record in this race (3 wins form last 10). He has two runners in the race (Leading Man, Noir et Vert). Leading Man proved he stays 4m on good ground with his last run at Doncaster. Noir et Vert has been laid out for this race and the drying ground will be a signficant help (together with a good claimer who handily removes some weight).
It is a close call between Noir et Vert and Leading Man, but I'm siding Leading Man -I'm having 2pts win @ 14/1
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