Saturday, June 30, 2007

Northumberland Plate - Dr Sharp - 2pts win - 22-1

Dr Sharp has been in poor form this year, but has missed his favoured soft ground. The Northumberladn Plate today will give him his preferred trip/ground and he can spring a suprise.

From his draw, I can see him taking the lead from the off and outstaying the other runners in this easy ground. I'm going win rather than E/W in case his form has really dropped off this year (as opposed to just not having the right conditions).

Not happy that I missed the easily availible 33/1 thsi morning, but the 22/1 (with money back for 2nd place at Paddy Poweris is still good value).

Monday, June 25, 2007

Andrew Murray - SPOTY without Hamilton - 33/1 - 4pts

"I refer the honourable genteleman to the answer I gave some moments ago." Commonly heard in the House of Comnmons, I'm adapting this for the 2007 SPOTY Market without Hamilton. 4 Bookies have opened up on this, so it is time to take a look at this market.

Those of you who read my blog regularly will know that the SPOTY market has been very sucessful for me. Having locked in my Hamilton profits for 2007, I believe there is good money to be made in the "SPOTY 2007 (without Hamilton)" market. The current market leaders (with top prices from the 4 bookmakers who have priced this up) are:

Frankie Dettori - 15/8
Ricky Hatton - 11/2
David Beckham - 10/1
Monty Panesar - 12/1

After that, it is 20-1 Bar.

Fankie Dettori has a reasonable chance as who will probably be pushed by the BBC as they have the Derby as one of their few remaining high profile events to cover. With QoS, Dettori has both a celeberity appeal and another reason for BBC to 'push' him. However, Racing has a poor record in SPOTY and Dettori's achievements has not been outstanding this year so far. Yes, his first win the Derby was impressive but not quite a Frankie 7 when he cam only came 3rd in SPOTY. At these prices he makes no apppeal.

Ricky Hatton is short priced only due to the recency effect having won at the weekend. He is a geat boxer, but just too little knon by the voting public. The low profile of boxers and the fact votes are normally split across several boxers means that he has much less chance than his odds imply.

David Beckham as a chance as he has had a good football season, but footballlers only tend to do well during major championships as they are not helped by playing in a team game. Beckham will also not get full support form a single club (unless US fans start voting!). The celeb factor helops in his favour, but surely there will be bigger sporting achivements.

Monty Panaser has developed a 'cult' following, howveer with no major cricket championships and the fact crickets votes coudl be spread across several players (e.g Pietersen), he makes no appeal.

At a massive 33-1 at Skybet (20-1 at Stan James, as low as 10-1 at Ladbrokes), Murray is a graet bet. I'm having 4pts at 33-1 on Murray. He is a big price as he has just pulled out of Wimbledon (the recency affect again!). However, there is still the US Open to go where he is a 10/1 chance. His attitude could count against him, but if he makes US Open final appearance (5-1 chance?) he would be hard to see out of the top 2 (with Hamilton) - rememeber Greg Rusedski won SPOTY with a US Open Final appearance.

Most tennis votes will go him unless Tim Henman makes progress at Wimblendon.... he is now into teh 5th set with Moya....

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Wimbledon Men's Championship - Roddick Back (to Lay) at 20.0 on Betfair.

Fededer is by far the most likely winner of the Men's Championship at Wimbledon. However, he has missed Halle (his normal prep. tournanment for Wimbledon) and, since the Australian Open, has not looked quite as formidable as he normally does. Against this, he will undoutebly raise his game for Wimbledon, as it is a Major on his favourite surface grass.

There is a chance, due the lack of preparation, that he could suffer an early defeat. If not, he is likely to meet Roddick in the Semi-Final. Roddick has a easy quarter and it would be a big surprise to see him not reach the Semi-Final. He won his prep. tournament and seems to be thriving underr new coach Jimmy Connors.

If/when Rodicck reaches the semi-final, a decision can be taken whether to layoff part or all of the stake. Roddick has a terrible record against Federer, so if both do reach the Semi-FGinal it would seem prudent to at least lay back the stake.

The other half of the draw is much more competive - there are 4-5 playesr who could reach the Final. There is an argumanet to be made for backing one of these players E/W (due to the lopsided nature of the draw), but it is tricky to pick the correct player.

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Six monthly update on performance.

The statistics speak for themselves:

Performance in past 6 months: Level
Performance since start of blog (Jan 06): +37%

Since the new year, I've placed fewer of the smaller bets I used to place and concentrated on longer term, larger bets. The idea is that this will reduce the 'random factor' of sports. Overall turnover is also reduced.

This looks like it has hit my profitability i.e reduced it to zero! However, my outstanding antepost bets are looking profitable - in fact if you factored in their 'current value' (i.e. if it was possible to lock in profits on Betfair), the profitability looks very good.

Overall, I'm still satisfied with my performance - I've had a number of near misses at big prices and therefore being 'even' over a 6 month period is acceptable.

Monday, June 18, 2007

America's Cup - Correct Score Betting - 5-0

These are the previosu results from the America's Cup.

2003 Switzerland Alinghi won 5-0 New Zealand
2000 New Zealand won 5-0 Prada Challenge Italy
1995 New Zealand Black Magic won 5-0 Young America United States
1992 United States America won 4-1 Il Moro di Venezia Italy
1988 United States America won 2-0 New Zealand Challenge
1987 United States Stars and Stripes won 4-0 Kookaburra Australia

Notice a pattern? It is clear that a win to zero is highly likely. I suspect the reason for this is the 'compressed' nature of the racing final. If 2 F1 cars raced head to head over a 2 week period in a best of 9 tournanment, it is highly likely that one would win 5-0 as one drive/car combination would be relatively superior and would only lose a race by mistake/accident etc. The short time period would mean that there woudl be no time to make substantial changes to the equipment (car/yacht.... almost said boat :) ).

I'm not sure what the outright prices were before the previous finals... the prices this time are approx 4-6 Switzerland, 6-4 New Zealand. Although this may indicate unpredicatability in the outcome, this does not necssarily mean that a 5-0 result is unlikely - just that it is uncertain WHO will win 5-0.

Liquidity in light on Betfair, however I have managed to get on the following bets:

5 pts Win 8-1 Switzerland
0.5 Win 10-1 New Zealand (cover bet)

P.S. Bet365 also bet on this market... I don't dare to to put a bet on with then. 5p?

Sunday, June 17, 2007

US Open - Top European (Market Post Rnd 3.) - Petterson - 33/1 - 1.25pts

The market (and current scores) for the Top European at Stan James are as follows:

10/11 Rose (+5)
Evens Casey (+5)
10/1 Fasth (+7)
33/1 Petterson (+9)
40/1 Dougherty (+9)
50/1 McDonnell (+10)

I think any of the 3 longer priced players are value at this venue - it is so easy to drop 4 shots in a couple of holes.

P.S. I'm hoping to post a bet at approx 9 p.m. on a player who posts an early score of approx +6/+7 - I believe this score could win today.

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Rugby Union Tri Nations - Australia - 16-1 - 2pts SportingOdds

I'm not a Rugby specialist, but 16-1 on Australia seem to be too big a price for the Tri Nations. I've looked back over past recors and also looked at the current team strengths and I am I'm sure this should be a shorter price. Perhaps I'm missing something?

I wonder if sometimes less knowledge can be better ... you could proabbly spend hours studying Tennis Mens Grand Slams, but I'm sure that you probably need to look no further than Federer and Nadal... all the form analysis and knowledge of the other players is probably wasted.

Jamieson Gold - 9-1 - 2pts -2.25 Sandown

Jamieson Gold will be ideally suited by todays race. He is on a fair handicap mark, the same as when who previously won at Newbury (at 20-1). He has had a prep run to get him fresh and, most importantly, he will be able to handle the soft ground well. Many consider this horse inconsistent. I think this is wrong, as, with soft ground, his form figures are 2-3-1-0. The trip is ideal at 7f and he has previously shown form at this track. At 9-1, I think he is a great bet (hope my judgement isn't being clouded by the fact I backed him at Newbury!)

AS this was a Pricewise tip as well, the price has now gone into 13/2, but it is still reasonable value at that price. Being a Pricewise slection in fact gives me additional confidence in this bet as, during the 2007 Flat season, Tom Segal has hit good form.

US Grand Prix F1 - 2pts Heidfield - 9-2 Betdirect

At present the Mclarens seem to have the measure of the Ferraris, both in qualifying and race pace. In addition, Hamilton/Alonso appear to be a better drive combination than Massa/Raikkonen.

This is largely factored into outright prices. However, I think there is still profit to be had in backing Haidfield in the BMW for a Podium position at 9/2 (at Betdirect). The BMW has been clearly the next best car (after the top 4) and with Kubica injured, I make Heidfield the clear 5th favourite for a Top 3/podium position.

The price difference between Heidfield and Massa/Raikonnen for the podium position is just too big.....I'd have had had 4pts at 9/2 on Heidfield, but Betdirect restricted me to 2 pts. :(

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Lock in SPOTY profits (62 pts) - Lay Hamilton at 1.37

After backing the winner of SPOTY 2006 at 11/1 last year, last Christmas, rather than gibving you my heart, I previewed the SPOTY 2007. My sole bet was Hamiltion at 25/1 (4 pts). (look approx. half way down)

I've now decided it is time to lock in 62 pts profit by laying Hamilton at 1.37 for SPOTY 2007 on Betfair. He is clearly favourite at present, but there is still 6 months (and many Sporting events) to go e.g Golf Majors, Tennis Majors and the World Atchletics Championships. There is also the 'celebrity factor' which could give Dettori/Beckham a chance.

This lay off takes away 6 months of uncertainty... still rooting for Hamilton to win the F1 Chamionship though, with 3 pts E/W at 25-1 and 10 pts at 5-1 on a top 3 finish!

(Perhaps I should stick to just SPOTY betting?!).

BTW, at the request of a reader, I will post an update on results at the end of June 2007. This will be a % profit since the start of my blog (Jan 2006-June 2007), for this year (Jan 2007-Jun 2007) and a record of outstanding bets.

Saturday, June 09, 2007

Take advantage of Musselburgh draw....

Low numbers have a very strong record in the 3.45 at Mussleburgh. I've therefore had 0.2 pts on each of the forecasts on the following horses (Drwaw 1,2,3).

Selection: River Falcon
Selection: Fullandby
Selection: Handsome Cross

All have reasonable form in what is a tight handicap (i.e. horses weighted to finish close to each other) - the low draw could make the difference.

I'm hoping a winning foresast will pay at least 50/1+.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Next Man City Manager - Graeme Souness - 2pts 25-1

I've a sneaking feeling that Man City may be stupid enough to appoint Graeme Souness. This (once) great club have made poor managerial appointments in the past and I think they have sufficiently poor judgement to make this (absurd) decision.

The imminent takeover puts this appointment difficult to call, hence the folly of taking short prices (e.g. those of you who backed Ranieri at odds on need to hang your heads in shame).

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Epsom Derby - take on Authorised with the O'Brien horses.

Authorised is a short price favourite for this race. This based on it's victories in two key trials (Racing Post Tropy, Dante) - however, there were not strong fields for both races. He should like the trip/ground, but Epsom is a unique course so I am happy to take him on.

I seriously considered laying Authorised for a place at 3/1 with William Hill or backing O'bRien to have the winner at 2/1, but instead I've decided to back the O'Brien runners with the following 2 bets

- 12/1 to have the first 2 home (2pts)
- 40/1 to have the first 3 home (0.5pts)

I will have the follwoing horse running for me:

Eagle Mountain
Soldier Of Fortune
Anton Chekov

If O'Brien can't decide which will do well, I'm not going to try and second guess him! (However, I think Achipenko and Eagle Mountain have the strongest chances, as indicated by their prices).