Andrew Murray - SPOTY without Hamilton - 33/1 - 4pts

"I refer the honourable genteleman to the answer I gave some moments ago." Commonly heard in the House of Comnmons, I'm adapting this for the 2007 SPOTY Market without Hamilton. 4 Bookies have opened up on this, so it is time to take a look at this market.

Those of you who read my blog regularly will know that the SPOTY market has been very sucessful for me. Having locked in my Hamilton profits for 2007, I believe there is good money to be made in the "SPOTY 2007 (without Hamilton)" market. The current market leaders (with top prices from the 4 bookmakers who have priced this up) are:

Frankie Dettori - 15/8
Ricky Hatton - 11/2
David Beckham - 10/1
Monty Panesar - 12/1

After that, it is 20-1 Bar.

Fankie Dettori has a reasonable chance as who will probably be pushed by the BBC as they have the Derby as one of their few remaining high profile events to cover. With QoS, Dettori has both a celeberity appeal and another reason for BBC to 'push' him. However, Racing has a poor record in SPOTY and Dettori's achievements has not been outstanding this year so far. Yes, his first win the Derby was impressive but not quite a Frankie 7 when he cam only came 3rd in SPOTY. At these prices he makes no apppeal.

Ricky Hatton is short priced only due to the recency effect having won at the weekend. He is a geat boxer, but just too little knon by the voting public. The low profile of boxers and the fact votes are normally split across several boxers means that he has much less chance than his odds imply.

David Beckham as a chance as he has had a good football season, but footballlers only tend to do well during major championships as they are not helped by playing in a team game. Beckham will also not get full support form a single club (unless US fans start voting!). The celeb factor helops in his favour, but surely there will be bigger sporting achivements.

Monty Panaser has developed a 'cult' following, howveer with no major cricket championships and the fact crickets votes coudl be spread across several players (e.g Pietersen), he makes no appeal.

At a massive 33-1 at Skybet (20-1 at Stan James, as low as 10-1 at Ladbrokes), Murray is a graet bet. I'm having 4pts at 33-1 on Murray. He is a big price as he has just pulled out of Wimbledon (the recency affect again!). However, there is still the US Open to go where he is a 10/1 chance. His attitude could count against him, but if he makes US Open final appearance (5-1 chance?) he would be hard to see out of the top 2 (with Hamilton) - rememeber Greg Rusedski won SPOTY with a US Open Final appearance.

Most tennis votes will go him unless Tim Henman makes progress at Wimblendon.... he is now into teh 5th set with Moya....