Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Is Todd Carty the new John Sargeant?

After being 'cruelly' robbed with my bets on John Saregent, I'm backing Toddy Carty to win Dancing on Ice (DoI). I've paid little attention to DoI and hence have missed the 'fancy prices' (66/1) but after last weekend's performance (see below), he surely is in with a great chance.

I believe Toddy Carty could have momementum to win this competition. The conventional widom is that 'joke' candidates lose (at best) in the final but I think Todd Carty can defy this. Possible downsides are a withdrawl (c.f. John Sargeant), injury or the public giving up on the joke.

I make him (at most) a 5/1 chance. I've had 5 pts (£125) at 20/1 (across several bookies due to limits on my accounts).


Sunday, January 18, 2009

Tour Down Under - Lance Armstrong - 16-1 - 4 pts win

Lance Armstrong is quoted at a dismissive 16-1 by Stan James for the Tour Down Under. I think they are taking a big chance with quoting him at this price (as short as 9/2 elsewhere, 8-1 to lay at Betfair). Armstrong has stated he is in peak fitness (well, more fit than his last Tour De France ride). He has also stated that he is not here to win. In my opinion, this is 'Alex Furguison' style mind games. Frankly, Armstrong does not know the meaning of not giving 100% to try to win.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Ali Carter to beat O'Sullivan 6-0 (66/1) or 6/1 (28/1) - 1.5 pst on each

Although O'Sullivan is supremely naturally talented anooker player, breaking your cue does not strike me as someone who is fully mentally focussed on this tournament. Ali Carter has played well this year and won 6-0 against Peter Ebdon in the last round (I should have backed that!). I am taking a chance that O'Sullivan loses the first couple of frames and effectively 'throws in the towel'. I've therefore had 1.5 pts at 66/.1 on Carter to win 6-0 and 1.5 pts at 28/1 on Carter to win 6-1 (both at PaddyPower).

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Scottish Cup - Dunfermline - 2.5 pts E/W 150/1, Aidrie 1pt E/W 500-1, Ross County 1pt E/W 500/1

Surprisingly, in the past ten years only once have Rangers and Celtic contested the Scottish Cup Final. When you think about it, that makes sense as for both to be present they need to both avoid each other until the final and not lose any games. However, as Rangers and Celtic take so much % out of the book, there is E/W value on the other teams to make the final.

Last year, Queen of the South showed that, with luck with in the draw, a Divsion One team can make the final. In fact, on a significant amount of occasions in the last ten years, at least one Divsion One team have made the semi-finals.

I have backed three Division One teams in the last 32:

- Dunfermiline (2.5 pts E/W) 150-1
- Airdrie (1pt E/W) 500-1
- Ross County (1pt E/W) 500-1

(Some bookies are 1/2 1,2 but they had lower prices and also would only take low bets from me!)

By spreding my bets, I have a stromger chance of getting one team into the final an winning the 'place' part of the bet. If any of the teams play each other, it is not a major diadvantage as at least you guarantee a team through to the following round.

This week, in the last 32, most of the Div. One teams are playing Premiership Teams, making (amking them unlikey to qualify to the next round). The exceptions are Dunfermline and Aidrie. Dunfermline (second placed in Division One) are playing fellow Divsion One team Clyde. Dunfermline are likely to get through this match, putting them into the last 16 (4/5 to win the game). Airdrie are a weaker Divsion One Team, but are more likely to progress in this round (1/3 for their game today) as they have a relatively easy drwaw in this round.

Finally, although Ross County are playing Premiership Hamilton, they have a reasonable chance of progrsssing as Hamiltom are not a strong Premieship side and Ross County are at home (although Ross County are still outsiders in this tie at (12/5).

Update : My intial post at 10 a.m. was jsut Dunfermiline - at 12 midday I added Ross County and Aidrie! The logic still remains the same.

Monday, January 05, 2009

Update: Taylor to win all 8 TV events 2009 - 4pts - 50/1 - Skybet

Having backed Taylor at 33/1 to win all 8 TV events at 33/1 at Stan James, I'm suprised to see Skybet open up this same market at 50/1. I appreciate 8 events is a 'Big Ask' - Taylor will be especially vulnerable in the early rounds of the some of the events where fewer sets are required to win. However, 50/1 is an insult against one of the greatest sporstmen of our era - a 7-1 drubbing of van Barneveld yesterday in the PDC World Chmapionship shows Taylor is right at the top of his game.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Chancellor on 31st Dec 2009 - Ed Balls - 5pts Win 25/1 - Ladbrokes

Labrokes have a market as to who will be Chancellor on 31qst Dec 2009. If Brown calls a General Election (and loses), it is quite possible that the Chancellor will be a Conservative, most likley George Osborne (8/1). However, I suspect Brown is unlikely to call an election in 2009 if it will result in a Conservative victory, therefore the most likely Chancellor is a Labour Chancellor.

The most likely Labour Chancellor on 31st Dec. 2009 is the present incumbent, Alistair Darling (4/6). However, if things start to go wrong with the economy recovery plan from Labour, it is possible he will be replaced. In my opinion, the most likely person to replace him is Ed. Balls (25/1). As Brown's Economic advisor when Brown was Chancellor, Balls is idealy placed to take the role of Chancellor now Balls has some ministerial experience. I would expect thsi to happen during a reshuffle around the time of the Labour party conference in Sept. 09.

The other possible scenario is a government of 'National Unity' with Vince Cable (20/1) being appointed, however I think this is much less likely option.

I tried to have 5pts (£125) at Ladbrokes but was limited to 1 pts (see screen shot above). I therefore put the other 4pts on in a Ladbrokes shop!

Update : 8.00 p.m. 2 hrs later and betting is suspended. Looks like I have had some affect on the market!

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Fulham to win FA Cup - 4pts E/W 66/1 - Corals

The 'Big Four' have an excellent record in the FA Cup in the past decade. However, I think the tide might be changing with Porstmouth's win last year. The 'Big Four' no longer take the FA Cup as seriously as they did in the past - it is now a long way behing the Chmaions League/Premier League in their priority.

I have chose to oppose the 'Big Four' with Fulham. At 66/1, they are a more than fair price. Roy Hodgson has made Fulham into a solid mid table outfit with a good defensive away record against stronger Premier League teams. Their third round tie away against Sheff Wed. is not too bad - hopefully they will get favourable draws from now on.

By backing with Coral, I have I had a 'free' 2pt E/W bet on a Championship tem- I have jhad 2pts E/W on Birmingham (it was a choice between them and Wolves as I know Reading will likely field an understrength side in teh FA Cup.)

N.B. I backed Everton last year and they went out in the 3rd round at home to Oldhamk so I hope I haven't jinxed Fulham!