Labrokes have a market as to who will be Chancellor on 31qst Dec 2009. If Brown calls a General Election (and loses), it is quite possible that the Chancellor will be a Conservative, most likley George Osborne (8/1). However, I suspect Brown is unlikely to call an election in 2009 if it will result in a Conservative victory, therefore the most likely Chancellor is a Labour Chancellor.
The most likely Labour Chancellor on 31st Dec. 2009 is the present incumbent, Alistair Darling (4/6). However, if things start to go wrong with the economy recovery plan from Labour, it is possible he will be replaced. In my opinion, the most likely person to replace him is Ed. Balls (25/1). As Brown's Economic advisor when Brown was Chancellor, Balls is idealy placed to take the role of Chancellor now Balls has some ministerial experience. I would expect thsi to happen during a reshuffle around the time of the Labour party conference in Sept. 09.
The other possible scenario is a government of 'National Unity' with Vince Cable (20/1) being appointed, however I think this is much less likely option.
I tried to have 5pts (£125) at Ladbrokes but was limited to 1 pts (see screen shot above). I therefore put the other 4pts on in a Ladbrokes shop!
Update : 8.00 p.m. 2 hrs later and betting is suspended. Looks like I have had some affect on the market!
1 comment:
Just got 16/1 (8:45pm)
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