Sunday, May 31, 2009

RSS feed

I've had a couple of requests for an RSS feed ... so I've added one. Just click on the icon to the right to subscribe using your preferred RSS update method. Can someone let me know if it works OK!

This will mean that you'll know when I update my blog.

Monday, May 25, 2009

France Open - Women - Carla Suarez Navarro - 3pts win 100-1,1 pt Place (E/W 1,2)

I think there a major doubts about most of the leading contenders in the Womens French Open. I've therefore found an outsider who could be value. Spaniard Suaraez Navarro has excellent clay form and saves her best performances for Grand Slam events. She made the QF here last year, and has a reasonable chance of progressing further this year - the 25-1 at William Hill looks more correct.

I did want to have 2pts E/W at 100-1 but Ladbrokes restricted me to 1 pt E/W. I've had the other 2pt win at 120-1 at Centrebet.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Turin v Genoa - Genoa to win - 6-1 - 10 pts win

I normally steer clear of betting on individual footabll matches as the markets are usually very accurate. The only time I believe there is significant value is at the end of the season when bookies tend to underprice those teams who have to win (e.g. Sunderalnd V Chelsea where Sunderland are poor value).

Seria A is notorious dangerous to bet on at the end of season as results that would favour both teams are especially short (e.g. a draw in the Chievo v Bologna match today at 4-7!). I don't lay these 'short' prices as the results seem to occur just as often as the odds suggest.

Despite these reservations, Genoa must be fantastic value today at 6-1. The bookies has priced this match up assuming Genoa have nothing to play for. Genoa (currently 5th) have already secured a Europa League place but realistically need to win this game to have a chance of finishing fourth and getting a Champions League Place. The Genoa manager has given no hint that he will be taken this game easy - his pre-match commnent state quite the reverse. Turin are 17th, just above releagtion, and will be desperate for three points but wanting three points and getting them are two different matters.

P.S. I've also had 4 pts on Tottenham at 6-1 to beat Liverpool at Anfield today. This is primarily a cover bet as I have backed (earlier in the season) the following results:
- Liverpool to go undefeated at home
- Tottenham to finish 7th
both of whcih (as aa minimum) require a Tottenham win. I also don't think Tottenham are bad value at 6-1.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Irish Open - John Daly - 2pts E/W 1,2,3,4,5 - 66/1

Exiled for 6 months from the US Tour, (new slimline!) John Daly showed he was back to form with a 2nd last week in Italy. He has a good links record (he won the Open at St. Andrews) and is reasonable value at 66/1 for the Irish Open. He will be keen to prove his doubters wrong, having been reduced to selling T-Shirts outside the US Masters (and looks like could probably do with some golf winnings).

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

John Terry FGS - Chleseas v Barcleona - 25/1 - 2pts E/W

John Terry has a habit of scoring critical goals in European/International matches. With a weakened Barcelona defence, he has an excellent chance of scoring in the Champions League Semi Final. I'd make him a 16/1 chance at most for First Goal Scorer. The 25/1 at Ladbrokes/Corals is good value.

Monday, May 04, 2009

ATP Serbian Open - Troicki - 1.5 pts win 33/1

Troicki has a chance of doing well in the Serbian Open. It is a relatively weak tournament as many of the leading players have taken a week off between the two Masters tournaments (only 5 of the top 50 are there).

Like Djokovic, it is a 'home' tournament for Troicki - hence I think Troicki will raise his game for this (he won his last tournament on home soil). Djokovic is no certainty to beat Troiki if /when they meet (they are the the same half of the draw). Troicki won their only previous encounter in 2007 and like Djokivic has progressed well since then.

I make Troicki a 16/1 chance (at most) - I would have had 4pts win, but PaddyPower restricted me to 1.5pts.