Thursday, October 30, 2008

BBC MoD Goal of the Season - David Bentley - 8/1 - Skybet - 3pts

I think David Bentley is a reasonable price at 8/1 for MoD Goal of the Season. I've looked at past winners and it is difficult to discern a pattern for the type of goals. The only common thread is the clubs the players have played for - the last 7 have played for one of the 'Big 4'. Also worringly, Beckham's goal from the half way line didn't win! Despite these two negatives, I'm fairly sure this goal will be one of the contenders at the end of the season.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Portsmouth to be Relegated - 8pts - 50/1 - William Hill

I've just had 8pts on at 50/1 at Hills. Should be much shorter... 16/1 maybe? Only 9 games into season and with Redknapp gone and (reportedly) financial problems, if they have to sell players in the January transfer window Portsmouth could implode.

P.S. I know the bet says 4pts - I had a further 4pts on while I was writing this up as the more I thought about it, the better value I thought it was.... maybe 10/1?

Totteham Hotspur to win Premiership without 'Big 4' - 50/1 5pts E/W (14/1,2,3) - Coral

Tottenham have made a sensible decision by removing their management (and structure) and bringing in Harry Redknapp. Comolli as a Director of Football was clearly not working, as can been seen by the fiasco over strikers in the Summer. With Harry Redknapp in sole charge of footballing matters, I can see a major improvement in Tottenham's fortunes. Fifth will be a big ask, but top seven may definitely be achievable. Other than Aston Villa, there do not seem many strong clubs challenging for positions 5-7.

Changing the manager does not by itself improve the fortunes of a club, however Ramos had clearly lost the dressing room. His tactical choices this season have been strange and is continual lack of English hasn't help. Redknapp's only requirement is to keep the club up, however if he can string a series of results together he may well be looking to a UEFA position. The players he has are not inherently bad - sure Tottenham have weaknesses on the left sided of midfield and up front, but these areas can be strengthen in the January transfer window - I think it is far from impossible that you will see Defoe returning (Portsmouth may need to have a 'fire sale').

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Henry the Navigator is > 20-1 in the US Pools...

The US public have gone mad for Curlin.... I've had 2pts on Henry the Navigator at an (insulting) approx 20-1. Is this Rail Link all over again?

Crowded House to win 2009 Epsom Derby - 16/1 - 2pts Labrokes

Crowded House produced an excellent display to win the Racing Post Trophy today. His acceleration in the the final furlong was 'Arazi like' and I think he will make an great Derby prospect (for which he is aimed). Horses that have won the Racing Post Trophy have an very good record in the Epson Derby. Therefore, the 16/1 at Ladbrokes for Crowded House to win the 2009 Epson Derby is a great price. I'm sure if his trainer Brian Meehen was a 'bigger' name, then he would be far shorter (5/1?).

O'Brien to train the first two home in Breeders Cup Classic - 0.5 pts - 40/1 Betfred

I have a feeling my flop in the Breeders Cup Classic (new trip, new surface). I'ev decided to take him on by backing O'Brien to have the fisrt two home in the Breeders Cup Classic at 40/1. I've tried to have 1pt, but 'fearless' Fred has only allowed me 0.5 pts!

Osasuna v Real Betis - Abella Damia - Anytime Goalscorer - 16/1 Extrabet 1pt

Midfielder Damia has scored two goals in the first four games of La Liga and his good value at 16/1 to score at anytime in the Osasuna v Real Betis game tonight. He is as short as 11/2 elsewhere....

Friday, October 24, 2008

Mandleson to leave Cabinet in 2008 - 7.1 - Paddy Power - 1pt

I’ve availed myself on some of the 7/1 at Paddy Power on Mandelson to leave the Cabinet in 2008. I tried to have 4pts, but was restricted (as ever) to 1pt. I’m convinced that this week has been simply a last ditch diversionary tactic by Mandelson to save his position and that there is more (serious) dirt in Mandelson to come out at the weekend …. I suspect Brown would not mind asking Mandelson to leave, given their previous rocky relationship. Brown can then continue with his 'I've saved the world' narrative.

No European Winners (including Godolphin) at the Breeders Cup - 20/1 BlueSQ - 2pts Win

I've not had time to do the full analysis, but I think that 20/1 on no European winners at the Breeders Cup looks too big. (It is as short as 7/1 elsewhere). I'm having 2pts with Blue Square on this...

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Premier League - O'Sullivan to beat Davis 6-0 and Perry to beat Hendry 6-0 (Double) - 125/1 - 1pt Ladbrokes

Last week saw to 6-0 whitewashes by Perry and O'Sullivan. It is not impossible that we could see similar result tonight.

If O'Sullivan turns up in the right frame of mind, he has the ability to beat Davis 6-0. O'Sullivan is not in great form, but he showed last week he can be the master at Premier League snooker if he turns his mind turns to it. Davis has yet to get off the mark.

Perry has played well this year in the Premier League and can turn over Hendry who has yet to score (although he has only played one game).

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Bordeaux v Cluj - FGS Cuilo 1pt E/W 33/1 Blue Square

Unfashionable Cluj are being continually underrated by the bookies. The have shown with their performances in the Champions League so far that they are a perfectly capable team. They have a real chance of defeating a weak Bordeaux side tonight and, even more likley, scoring the first goal.

Attacking midfielder Cuilo had a poor scoring record last year in the Romanian League, but he seems to be transformed this year in the Chamions League. He has scored two goals v Roma. At 33/1, BlueSq are taking a real chance - he is approximately half the odds at other bookies.

Absolutely no 'Gangsta Paradise' jokes.

Wanted: Bookmakers who can take bets.

Are there any bookmakers left who will take my bets?

The latest problem I have is with Boylesports (who have previously taken reasonable bets from me). The latest MAXIMUM bet they would take from me was £0.03 (3p). Frankly, thsi is getting ludcicrous - are others having these same issues? Or is it just me?

I'm serious, if you are a bookmaker and would be prepared to take my bets, please contact me at - I'm waiting....

(Partial) Lock in of profits on NASCAR - Jimmie Johnson

Those of you who follow my blog will know I have 10 pts on Jimmie Johnson at 7/1 to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup. He is now an approximate 1/10 chance. I've persuaded Stan James to offer me 11/2 on him NOT to win. They allowed me 4 pts (max.) at this price which means I can (partially) lock in my profits. Jimme Johnson is approx 150 pts clear with 4 races to go. If he has a DNF (e.g. via engine failure) he would still be favourite but others such as Edwards/Biffle would be back in with excellent chances.

Update: I've had a further 2pts at 16/1 on Carl Edwards - I think he is the most likely title contender can could potentially come back into the reckoning tonight (where he is joint favourite with Jimmie Johnson).

Saturday, October 18, 2008

John Sergeant to be eliminated (SCD) - 5th Elimination - 2pts - 7/1

John Sergeant is this years 'joke' candidate in SCD. As always, these individuals survive at least a handful of weeks (when they are typically favourite to be eliminated). The public back them enough to ensure they stay clear of the bottom 2 positions (when the judges and public votes are combined), preventing the judges from eliminating them.

This week John Sergeant is dancing the Samba, a fast pace dance that will not suit him. This means he is likely to get low judges score. When this score is combined with the public vote, he has a reasonable chance of finishing in the bottom 2 (when he will surely be eliminated). (He is helped by there being more people in his 'heat' as the male/female fields are combined, but this is offset by the elimiation in the past 4 weeks of the weaker candidates). The generally availible 7/1 is a great price - I'd make it closer to a 2/1 chance.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Scott Bruton to win X Factor 2pts win @ 40/1

I've not spent nearly enough time watching X Factor. Perhaps someone can enlighten me as to why an entry in the 15-24 male category is 40-1? I've had 2 pts on him to win to try and spark some interest for me in this contest....

Labour to win the Glenrothes By-Election - 6pts - 10/3

The result in the 2005 General Election was.

General Election, 5 May 2005
Party Candidate Votes %
Labour John MacDougall 19,395 51.9
Scottish National Party John Beare 8,731 23.4
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Riches 4,728 12.7
Conservative Belinda Don 2,651

The latest opinion polls in this constituency put Labour/SNP neck and neck (they were taken some time ago, before the recent financial crisis). Be warned though - most polls overstate Labour support (e.g in the Glasgow East By Election where they wwere +15% ahead in the polls and narrowly lost.) If the swing from Labour to SNP at the By Election is as large as the the Glasgow East By Election, SNP will win this seat.

The Labour candidate is not very strong, but I don't think this has a significant impact.

However, the current financial meltdown *may* well be a ‘game changer’ (like Gordon’s cancelled election, Inheritance Tax etc.) This time the 'game changer' could be in Labour's favour, rather than the previous ones which were aginst it. Votes could 'cling' Brown similar to Major in 1992 (during the last recession).

I therefore think the Glenrothes by-election in early Novemeber will be close and have taken the 10/3 at Coral on Labour (6 pts).

Update: Unfortunately, the top price you cna now get on Labour is now 9/4 (Stan James) - this is still a reasonable bet.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

First Cliche said by ITV Commentators during England v Kazakhstan Match

Paddy Power have opened a market on this, any the options are as follows

Very Nice
Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
High Five
Is Nice
It's Sexy Time

(If none of these said during the match, bets are losers).

I think 'Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan' has a live chance at 25-1 (I missed the 50-1 earlier today) - I'm having 1.5 pts (max allowed). I think the ITV commentators will avoid the simpler phrases - Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan still alludes to the Borat film, but is less derogatory. My biggest concern is not that it won't be said, but that it will be said before the game.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

A1GP - Zandvoort - France to win Feature Race - 0.5pts E/W - BlueSQ

A1GP kicks off today at Zandvoort. The new series (now in Ferrari powered cars) has started in somewhat of a shambles. The change of supplier means that the first race was canceled and in addition not all teams have made the second (now first!) race. As teams have had limited testing time, the qualifying for this weekend has changed compared to the rest of this season (and compared with last season!). This weekend (only), the Feature race grid will be formed from the result of the Sprint race.

France (with Luc Duval) would normally be one of the favourites for an A1GP race. However, France went off in qualifying for the Sprint race (when on a 'hot lap' and race fromn near the back of the Sprint race grid. This will mean that they will struggle to get placed in the Sprint race. However, this should give them a good starting position for the Feature race. I think the 80/1 at Blue Sq is excellent value. I've had 0.5pts E/.W (max allowed, but all punters are limited to this - I tried to have 2pts E/W).

Update: It looks like there may well be rain in the racing today - there was certainly a wet track in the 'pre-race'. A wet race makes the outcome more uncertain (hence better to be with outsiders) and accentuates the skill of better dirvers (such as Duval). I've have therefore had the following additional bets at Boylesports:

- 0.5pst E/W France for Sprint Race (50/1) (a podium for this race is now a possibility, but still unlikely)
- 0.5pts E/W France for the Feature Race
(Both the above at Boylesports).

Saturday, October 04, 2008

SCD - Don Warrington - Highest Judges Score - 66/1 - 1pt - Coral

Austin Healy is rightly the favourite to score the highest judges score this week, but 1/2 is plenty short enough. I think Don Warrington may have an outside chance of scoring the highest with the judges. He put on a reasonable peformance midweek in training when dancing the Tango. The acting nature of this dance may well suit (actor) Don Warrington. I make him a 25/1 chance (at most) to top score with the judges this week - the 66/1 at Coral is more than fair.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Arc - Red Rock Canyon - 1pt E/W 500-1 - Ladbrokes

Those who follow my blog know I have 12 pts at 6/1 on a British or Irish trained horse winning the Arc this weekend ... this is looking a good bet.

However, I can't resist having 1pt E/W @ 500/1 (!) on Red Rock Canyon for the Arc. French races can have pace 'issues' and with potentially soft ground the probable pacemaker Red Rock Canyon could be given a healthy lead. A win is unlikley, but 100/1 on this horse making the first three is an insult - I'd make it a 20/1 chance on this eventuality (at most).