Saturday, October 18, 2008

John Sergeant to be eliminated (SCD) - 5th Elimination - 2pts - 7/1

John Sergeant is this years 'joke' candidate in SCD. As always, these individuals survive at least a handful of weeks (when they are typically favourite to be eliminated). The public back them enough to ensure they stay clear of the bottom 2 positions (when the judges and public votes are combined), preventing the judges from eliminating them.

This week John Sergeant is dancing the Samba, a fast pace dance that will not suit him. This means he is likely to get low judges score. When this score is combined with the public vote, he has a reasonable chance of finishing in the bottom 2 (when he will surely be eliminated). (He is helped by there being more people in his 'heat' as the male/female fields are combined, but this is offset by the elimiation in the past 4 weeks of the weaker candidates). The generally availible 7/1 is a great price - I'd make it closer to a 2/1 chance.

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