Saturday, May 27, 2006

Sam Hornish - Indy 500 - 4/1 - 5ps win Sporting Odds.

The greatest motor race takes place tomorrow and it is a long way from Monaco! It is the Indy 500 and there is an outstanding bet. The polesitter and best driver (with the strongest team) should be a clear favourite.

The onbly potential danger are is tem mate Castroneves and Dan Wheldon. However, I expect this to be Hornish's year.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

BMW Chamionship - Trevor Immelman - 20/1 2pts win

Immelman is in great forman present (11-2-2) and was 2nd here 3 years ago. I think he has a great chance and is a more than fair price at the genrally availible 20/1.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Man of the Match - England v Sri Lanka - Lasith Malinga - 22-1 - 2pts win

Malinga will have a point to prove, having been left out from the 1st test. A good performace (5 wicket haul) against Sussex means he is bang in form. All eyes will be on Muralitharan, but I think Malinga may suprise if Enland put on a poor show.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Next Labour Leader - John Reid 1.5pts 14-1 Stan James.

Favourites don't have a great record in party leadership elections.

John Reid has the most to lose if Gordon Brown becomes the next labour leadewr and is hence the most likley to stand against him.

If/when he stands he would have an approx 3-1 chance, so the 14-1 at Stan James is a great price. Unfortunatley they will only allow me 1.5 pts. I'm trying to get more at Betfair...

Big Brother- Any Other Winner - 4pts -

This group of Brig Broither housemates are freaks and weirdos. The 'Golden Ticket' winner is likely to be a one of the favourites.... many people remember 'Charlie and the Chocoalte Factory'.

There is also the possibility of other entries....

At 10-1, I think 'Any Other Winner' is a great price.

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Eurovision Song Contest - Turkey, 2pts E/W 100-1

To win the Eurovision Song Contest, the factors I believe are the following:

1. Country - Baltic/East European country- many of these countries give each oither points. Now then no. of runers have been enalrged, I think it will be a long time before we see a West European winner.
2. Strong Semi-Final appearance - unfortunately this information is not availible!
3. Position - Late as possible appearance - means you are fresh in the mind of the voters.
4. Language - Difficult to win with a song not sung in English.

Using these factors, I'eve slected Turkey. I've also respect for Russia, Romania and Greece, howveer all are much shorter prices.

The factors in favour of Turkey are the following:

- Position - very late runner
- East European
- Qualified via Semi Final... so was in the top half!

There is a concern over language as there are both a Turkish and English versions.... not sure which verison she will sing.

The song is fair (although a little 'spoken'), and she is reasonably attractive. She is also an experienced performer who should not be overawed by the situation. As the event is in Greece, she will get good crowd support. She is a little 'static' in the video but I'm sure her stage show will be better - apparently she peroformed well in the semis.

2pts Win - 2.45 Newbury - Common World - 25-1

Common World's form is below that of Soviet Song but not that far of the other runners in this race. The Soft ground means that a surprise is more likely, and I'm plumping for Common World at 25-1.

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Spanish Grand Prix - 1pt E/W - Ralf Schumacher 100-1

Alonso and M. Schumacher are likley to dominate this race, but the 3rd place is up for grabs. With the Mclaren cars back on the grid, the race for 3rd is particularly open this week.

Ralf Schumacher is 12-1 for a Podium position (probably an accurate price... I'd make it a 10-1 chance), so by backing him E/W you are effectively getting a 'free' win bet.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

FA Cup Final - Man of the Match - Gerrard, Any Goal Keeper

Gerrard is a solid favourite for this at 4-1 (the 13-2 early this week was great value). However, as the value has now disappeared, I'm siding with 'Any Goal Keeper' at 16-1. (

Either goalkeeper could play great game and keep their side in the match... and then their is the possibility of penalties. (BBC MoM)

Update: I've found have put up 6-1 on Steve Gerrard! This can't last for long, I'm having 4pts on this (Sky MoM)

Saturday, May 06, 2006

Boxing - 0.5 pts on each Rd 6-9 inclusive - Mayorga - 66-1 William Hill.

De LaHoya is a superb fighter, but age may be catching up with him. Mayorga is a street fighter who will look to win inside the distance (as he is likely to be outmatched on points). If De La Hoya has not fully prepared, a shock outcome could be on the cards.

3.50 Newmarket - Something - 16-1 Ladbrokes (Guranteed Early Morning Price)

I've had 2pts win on Something at 16-1 . Highly reagrded by trainer Terry Milles, and will be well suited by dropping back to 6f (he clearly didn't stay over 1 mile at a Group race at Sandown last time).

Droppiong back to handicap companyl and with a favourable draw in stall 29, I think he has every chance off top weight.

1.55 Haydock - Ken's Dream - 16-1 Ladbrokes (Guranteed Early Morning Price)

I've had 2pts win on Ken's Dream at 16-1. He looked impressive at Plumtton last time (apart from a final flight blunder!) and off a low weight can win this handicap hurdle.

Ralf Schumacher - European Grand Prix, Outright & Qualifying

Ralf Schumacher has good recent qulaifying form and has a liking for this circuit. He is 3rd in final practice this morning. Consequently., I think he is over priced in both the qualifying and ourtight markets.

I've had 1pt E/W @ 40-1 (Qualifying) and 1pt E/W @ 80/1 (Outright). The latter bet will look big if he makes top 3 in qualifying.

2000 Guineas - 4pts win - Horatio Nelson - 7-1

Horation Nelson has the strogest form and shoudl be suited by the trip/ground. At 7-1 he is a great price, I;md make him close to halve that price.

Keiron Fallon has chosen Gerorge Washington but this wouldn't be the fisrt time a jockey has been on the'wrong' horse. Although O'Brien feels he will come on from the race, I am sure he will be fit enough to win this race is he is good enough.

Friday, May 05, 2006

2000 Guineas/Derby - Ladbrokes Special Doubles

I am keen to oppose Geroge Washington with the doubts regarding his stamina and temperament. I am planning to do this by backing the next 2 in the betting (Sir Percy, Horatio Nelson) in 2000 Guineas/Derby Doubles:

2pts Horatio Nelson to win 2000 Guineas/Derby (25-1)
2pts Sir Percy to win 2000 Guineas/Derby (20-1)

These horse were 1st and 2nd in Dewhirst last year which is rock solid form.

Both have great chances in the 2000 Guineas which, if they win, will mean they will start favourite for the Derby (both have breeding that indicates that they will run well at by both 1m and 1m 4f).

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Billy Mayfair 1pt E/W 66-1 - Wachovia

Billy Mayfair has decent recent & course form. I'm having 1pt E/W at the generally availible 66-1. I also have a liking for Mickelson @ Furyk, but these are much shorter prices.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Hibernian v Rangers - Hibs @ 9-1 (Coral Shops) - 2pt win

Corals over underestimated Hibs' chance of winning... 9-1 is an insult, I'd make it a 5-1 chance at most. I'm not keen on backing in individual matches, but this chance is too good to miss.

Monday, May 01, 2006

Top World Cup Goalscorer - Burgetti - 66-1 - 2pt E/W

Those of you are follow my gambling exploits will know I'm already on Luca Toni (Italy) at 33-1 (2pts E/W) for top World Cup goalscorer (now top priced 25/1)

To this I'm adding 2pts E/W on the Bolton striker Burgetti (aka the 'Desert Fox'). He is the leading striker for Mexico, who have a strightforward qualification group (Portugal, Iran and Angola). This means that they are likely to both score goals in the group stage and progress to the knockout stage.

The knockout stage is where it gets tricky with a tie against Holland/Argentina, however by this stage he may have already picked up 2-3 goals.

James Collins - 1st Goal Scorer - West Brom v West Ham - 1pt E/W - WIll Hill

James Collins has scored 2 goals in 13 appearances (both 1st goals). For this goals/games ratio, he is good value at 40-1 at William Hill.

I'm having 1pt E/W.

Update: Collins was rested, so it is stakes returned.

William Hill Greyhound Derby - Larkhill Jim - 200-1 - 1pt win - Betfair

Larkhill Jim (trained by Seamus Gaughan) ran a very respectable 28.85 over course (Wimbledon) and distance (480m) on April 22. This is a similar time to to previous runs over the 480m in Ireland.

I've looked at the previous 10 runnings of the Derby at the average winning time is 28.67. Therefore Larhill Jim would need a little improvement to feature in the final but, if he gets there, by trading on Betfair I will be able to lock in a profit.