Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Cheltenham - > 6 winners with SP > 16-1 - 8pts @ 5/2

Ladbrokes have formed a market as to how many winners will be priced with an SP > 16-1. With forecast good-soft ground, I would expect that there woudl be more than normal.

The current stats are as foillows:

2006 7/24 odds greater than 16/1
2005 5/24
2004 6/20
2003 3/20
2002 6/20

Given this analysis, I think Ladbrokes are more than fair in offering 5-2 on > 6 winners with SP > 16-1. 5-6 winners is also a lively runner at 2/1, the the others are poor value.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Scotland v Italy - No Tryscorer - 25-1 - 2pts

The last 3 matches between these sides have had 2-1-2 tries respectively. With bad weather forecast, there is no reason the think there won't be similarly few tries today. I think 25-1 on no tries being scored William Hill is more than fair.....

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Phil Mickleson to win 2007 Masters - 9-1 - 4pts win

Mickleson has come back to form and is likely to give Woods his most serious challenge in the 2007 Masters. Mikelson is currently top priced 9-1 at present to reain his title. If his current form continues in Feb/March, I expect that he will start clear 2nd fav. at closer to 5-1 (he is unlikley to start any bigger than 9-1).

Harrison v Sprott - Sprott to win in Points - 10-1 - 4pts

'Fraudley'/Audrey Harrison has a woeful record has a heavy weight. His one reasonably impressive performance came last time against Williams, in a fihgt Williams took at short notice. Sprott is no world beater, but if Harrison boxes as he has done previously there is a good chance Sprott can nick this on points.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Starting Price of Grand National Fav. to be 5-1 or less.

In the past 20 years there have been one void National and 4 National favourites 5-1 or less. It is therefore suprising to see William Hill offering 12-1 on a 5-1 fav (or shorter price). With the recent policy from the handicapper of 'compressed' wieights, you could argue that a short priced favourite is less likely. However, jt. favs 5-1 favs last year of Hegehunter/ClanRoyal shows that this may not make a signficant difference.

For this reason, I hoping for a big plunge on any horse... I'm having 4pts at 12-1 on a 5-1 or shorter price Grand National fav.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Murray to win a Masters event in 2007- 9-2 - 2pts.

Murray is making great progress in his tennis career and he has a realistic chance of winning one of the 7 masters events this year. Blue Square have this eventuality at 9-2 - my maths makes it an approximate 2-1 chance (assuming it you think he will play all events and will be an approx 16-1 chance for each).

I'd have had 8pts - howveer, Bluesq have limited me to 2pts.

Sunday, February 11, 2007

England to win Cricket World Cup - 16-1 - 1.25 pts win

England are a top priced 10-1, (12-1 to lay at Betfair) except for at Sportsinteraction.com.

These guys are out of line going 16-1... this was the price England was availible at most bookmakers before England's recent return to form. I don't expect this 16-1 to last long....

.... I wanted to place 5pts win, but I've been limited to 1.25 pts :(

Saturday, February 10, 2007

0 or 1 Pricewise Winners at the Cheltenham Festival - 3-1 - 8pts.

I've completed some analysis based on the (4 day) 2005 and 2006 Cheltenham festivals, and the bigest price I can make this is 6-4. Ladbrokes who run this market are taking a major chance at 3-1. (This market doesn't include Antepost bets).

Of course, this analysis only stands up if Pricewise (Tom Segal) adopts a similar strategy as the previous years. Actually, you could argue that thie price should be closer to 'Even Money' this year as he there are more short price horses in the Major races (where he already has ante post bets). This limits him to the (tricky) handicaps.

One possible reason for Ladbrokes to adopt this stregay is that if Pricewise has 0-1 winners,. they wil be more than happy to pay out on this market as they will have made a signficnat amount by not paying out to the many punters who follow 'Pricewise'.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Quarterbacks first score value in Superbowl.

Last year I tipped a Quarterback at 40-1 to score fisrt touchown... only for the other Quarterbacks to do so at 40-1! I'm not going to make the same mistake this year, I've backed both Quarterbacks - Manning 40-1 (2pts) and Grossman 80-1 (1pt) respectively.

Manning is by far the more talented, but both have reasonable scoring records.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Mirco Begamasco for starring role in Six Nations.

Mirco Bergamasco was joint leading trscorer (with 3 tries) in last years 'Six Nations'. His career record is 14 tries from 37 appearances, a excellent strike rate.

Italy play the (unpredictable) France today, and are expected to score approximately 1 try. I have therfore placed the following bets at Ladbrokes on Mirco Bergamasco:

4 pts to Score at Anytime - 10/1 (as short as 5/2 at Corals!)
1pt First/1pt Last Tryscorer - 50/1
2pts E/W Leading Tryscorer in Six Nations Championship - 80/1

(N.B. Mirco is not to be confused with his team mate Marco (same surname).)

Liverpool v Everton - 1pst First/1pt Last Goal Scorer - Arteta - 20/1

Mikel Arteta looks overpriced at 20/1 for first/last goal scorer in this match. He has scored 6 gols in 21 games this season. I'm having 1pt on each....