Saturday, September 19, 2009

7th ODi - James Anderson - Man of the Match - 16/1 - 2pts

James Anderson has a reasonable chance of being Man of the Match in the 7th ODI. The weather conditiosn will suit his seam bowling (dry and overcast). He has a good record at this ground and Australia's batsman do not play seam bowling well - I'd make him a 12-1 chance.

N.B. I've had to spread this bet across several bookmakers due to limits on my accounts, hence the £12.50 on the betting slip (rather than the £50 total I have bet).

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Austrian Open - Martin Erlandsson - 4pts win - 25/1

Malmo based Eralndsson's appointment of a sports psychologist has boosted his recent form the European tour (although he is still to win an event). His recent form figures read:


His last two results at this location were 9th (2007) and 3rd (2008) (his best finish of the season last year). He goes well at this course as, unlike many other courses, it does not punish his somewhat erratic driving.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Lock in (further) £5K profits on F1 2009 Championship

I've backed Vettel at 40-1 on Betfair for 2009 F1 Champion. This is a fair price - (positive = some of upcoming tracks play to Red Bull strengths, negative = possible 10 place grid penalty for engine change). This bet gives me 'full cover' on all runners. I've now backed the 4 possible winners (varying stakes) at the following odds:

Jenson Button 66-1
Rubens Barrichello 125-1
Sebastian Vettel 40-1
Mark Webber 33-1

The ironic thing is that I suspect that it will be a Button/Brawn win for the F1 Championship and all my laying off to gaurantee the profits will have been both costly an unnecessary. However, I've been able to do this at sensible prices thereby reducing my return by 'only' 20% (I'll do the exact maths later). I can also sleep at night rather than worrying about Button having a season ending accident.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Lisbon Treaty not to be passed by Irish - 9/2 - 7pts

In approx. one months time, the Southern Irish will vote for a second time on the Lisbon Treaty. The original vote last year had the the following outcome

Yes - 46%
No - 53%,_2008

The latest polls look good for the 'Yes' campaign

Yes - 46%
No - 29%
Don't Know - 25%

However, at a similar point in the campaign last year to today (i.e. one month before the poll), the polling was

Yes - 35%
No - 18%
Don't Know - 47%

My assessment is that we are in a similar position this year re: voting intentions one month before the vote. With so many undecided voters, the outcome is realtively uncertain. If the 'Don't Know's' split accoring to the current Yes/No split, it is a clear win for the 'Yes' vote. However, if the 'Don't Know's' split like they did last time, the outcome would be Yes 52%/No 48% ie. a narrow 'Yes' win.

The previous polling earlier in the summer was

Yes - 54%
No - 28%
Don't Know - 18%

If you factor in this information i.e that the momentum is clearly with the 'No' campaign, I think the vote could be close. I certainly expect that neither side is likley to get more than 55% of the vote. I've therefore backed the 'No' outcome at 9/2 with Paddypower.