Lisbon Treaty not to be passed by Irish - 9/2 - 7pts

In approx. one months time, the Southern Irish will vote for a second time on the Lisbon Treaty. The original vote last year had the the following outcome

Yes - 46%
No - 53%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland_Bill,_2008

The latest polls look good for the 'Yes' campaign

Yes - 46%
No - 29%
Don't Know - 25%

However, at a similar point in the campaign last year to today (i.e. one month before the poll), the polling was

Yes - 35%
No - 18%
Don't Know - 47%

My assessment is that we are in a similar position this year re: voting intentions one month before the vote. With so many undecided voters, the outcome is realtively uncertain. If the 'Don't Know's' split accoring to the current Yes/No split, it is a clear win for the 'Yes' vote. However, if the 'Don't Know's' split like they did last time, the outcome would be Yes 52%/No 48% ie. a narrow 'Yes' win.

The previous polling earlier in the summer was

Yes - 54%
No - 28%
Don't Know - 18%

If you factor in this information i.e that the momentum is clearly with the 'No' campaign, I think the vote could be close. I certainly expect that neither side is likley to get more than 55% of the vote. I've therefore backed the 'No' outcome at 9/2 with Paddypower.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0904/1224253822439.html