Friday, January 29, 2010

UK General Election Turnout - 55-60% - 7-1 - 20pts

Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have a market on the % voter turnout in the next UK General Election. They have similar prices, but I think the conventional wisdom that the % will increase is wrong.

The problem is that those interested in politics have an understandably different opinion as to how likely people are to vote - they are not a good sample, and it is difficult for them to think what less interested people will do! They (rightly) see this is a critical election. They think that there will be an increased Conservative turnout which will increase the % voting. I think this will be (at least) balanced by the Labour voter 'no shows' with Labour voter dissatisfaction with Gordon Brown. In addition, the turnout will be deflated by the expenses scandal as a general negative for all politicians.

I think the most likely guide to whether a person will vote is if they have voted before (which show, over the past decades, a general decline). Looking at the % figures from the last five elections and taking all the above factors into account, I think we will have a turnout of 55-60%. I've had 20 pts (my max. stake) at 7-1 on this.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Masters - Jimmy White - 6pts 33-1 to win the 3rd Quarter, 1pt E/W 200-1 (1/2 1,2)

Jimmy White (via a wildcard entry) returns today to his spiritual home of Wembley. He has shown decent form last year in minor events (winning in Bangkok and Prague (beating Higgins and Dott)). He has a relatively easy draw in the third Quarter and at 33/1 is too big a price to win this quarter. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (at most). It is hard to see him winning the event, but I can't resist 1pt E/W at 200/1.

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Scottish FA Cup - Dundee - 4 pts E/W - 66/1-

Dundee have had signficant financial investment and are clear leaders of Division One. I think they are great value (E/W) at 1/3 1,2 for the Scottish FA Cup. Other than Rangers and Celtic, no Scotttsih Premiership team has lookked especially impressive this season so there is a real chance (certainly much greater 22/1) that Dundee could make the final (and the 66/1 on the win part is a fair price). The 66/1 (E/W) is availible at several bookies...

Saturday, January 02, 2010

FA Cup - Any Non Premiership team to make the Semi Final - 5/2- 8pts - Betfred

If you look at he last 20 years, in 11 years Non Premierhsip teams have made the FA Cup semi-finals. With the decreased importance of the FA Cup some teams (Premiership and Championship) may field weakend teams, increasing thr proabilities of larger margin Premiership wins but also Premiserjhip teams exits.

There is no reason the think that the likleihood of a non Premiership side raeching the SemiFinals is any less likely than over the past 20 years.. probably the reverse. I would therefore make this as 4/5 chance... I've had 8 pts at 5/2.