Sunday, May 27, 2007

Monaco Grand Prix - is a shock going to happen?

If there ever is to be a shock in a Grand Prix, it is likely to be in Monaco. The tight curves and (potential) rain means that an upset is always possible. Who can forget Panis in 1996? For this reason, I've placed 0.5 pts (in total), spread across the following drivers, all at 1000-1 (!) (on Betfair)

Jarno Trulli 1000 £2.00
David Coulthard 1000 £2.00
Heikki Kovalainen 1000 £2.00
Rubens Barrichello 980 £2.00
Jenson Button 1000 £2.00
Ralf Schumacher 1000 £3.72
Alexander Wurz 1000 £2.00

This is in addition to the Hamilton (F1) /Wheldon (Indy 5000) double at 16-1 I placed midweek.

If the rain doesn't come, I think the winner will come from Alonso/Hamilton. I'd make the betting a lot closer - Hamiltion at 5/2 is a fair bet. Alonso will probably lead to the first corner, but 4/6 is no value on him for Monaco. Hamilton could easily be carrying more fuel which could give him a critical edge in this race.

In addition, those laying Massa at 12/1 on Betfair could look at little red faced in 3hrs time.

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Indy 500 - 5pst Win - 4-1 - Dan Wheldon - Pinnacle Sports

A weak qualifing performance from Wheldon 6th on the Grid) has persuaded Pinnacle Sports to make Wheldon 4-1 for the Indy 500. I'd make it a 2-1 chance at most. He has been consistently fast this week, and never qualifies particularly well. He has been clearly the fastest man this season in Indy Racing.

He is as short as 9-4 elsewhere for the Indy 500. I'm having 5 pts at 4-1 on a Wheldon victory.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Indy 500 & Indy Championship Season Bets

The Indy 500 is the only time that Indy Racing gets decent media coverage (and hence a reasonable number of bookmakers betting on it).

Most of the major bookmakers have opened books on the race. The one bet I considered having was Dan Wheldon at 11/4. However, instead of backing hime for the race (which you always need luck to win), I've backed him at 15/8 to win the Indy Racing Championship. He was unlucky not to win the Indy Racing Championship last year, and has looked clearly the best driver this year (he is leading the Championship). I'd have made him a even money chance (at most). WWinning this race will help in in his chmapionship battle.

I'm therefore having 15 points at 15/8 on Dan Wheldon for the Championship at Paddy Power - he is closer to even money elsewhere. Look, Bet365 you can take bets if you want to! (Bet365 are 5/4 and restricting me to £1.60 (ONE POUND SIXTY on this market).

I also can't resit a few specialiaty bets from Ladbrokes combining the Monaco Grand Prix the Indy 500 as follows:

4 pts on Danica Patrick to lead at some point in the race at 5/1. She is unlikely to win the race, but given the length of it, there are plenty of opportunities for crashes and hence offset fuel strategies.

3 pts Double on Lewis Hamilton to win Monaco and Dan Wheldon to win the Indy 500 at 16-1. Hamilton has an execllent record at Monaco and this Sunday is the time for this naturally talented driver to come of age. I've outlined Dan Wheldon's chances above.

1 pt Double on David Coulthard to make the podium at Monaco and Dario Franchitti to make the podium in the Indy 500 at 40/1. Coulthard has an excellent record at Monaco (finished on the podium last year in a weaker Red Bull) and his Red Bull has recently showed signs of improved performance (with a 5th in the Spanish Grand Prix). Franchitti has a reasonable podium chance.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

England to beat West Indies - 3-1 -10pts (@end of West Indoes 1st Innings)

I'm suprised to see England at 3-1 to win the 1st Test after West Indies have been bowled at on the 4th morning of the 1st Test. I can see England scoring approximtaely 235 and putting West Indies in with 1 hour go go tonight with a target of 350.

A lot will depend on the weather on Monday....not great forecast (hence the price)

My plan will be to lay off on England if they come down to at evens (i.e to be level on the Draw and West Indies and +20 pts on England).

Update: 18:15 Due to the uncertainty around the weather (and the lack of an aggressive declaration), I have closed back my position at 3/1 (i.e. no win/loss)

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Spinks v Taylor - Spinks to win on points - 10/1 - Betfair - 2pts

Both fighters have a record of fights going to points (especially Spinks). There is no reason to suspect that the outcome tonight will be any different. Therefore, the two potential bets are :

Taylor - Pts - 5/2
Spinks - Pts - 10/1

While Taylor is the more likely winner on pts., the difference between the prices is to large (I've seen strange judges scoring so many times). For this reason, I'm having 2pts on Spinks to win on points.

FA Cup Final - 2pts E/W Vidic - 1st Goal Scorer - 33-1 - William Hill

With an injury to Carvalho, Essien drops back to the centre of defence for Man Utd. This could leave Chelsea exposed to aerial threats from set pieces. Vidic is ideally placed to take advantage - he has scored four times this season.

I'm having 2pts E/W at 1/2 1,2,3 on Vidic for first goal scorer.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Eurovison Preview (Part 2!)

After the betting disaster of 'Black Thursday' (Switzerland out from Eurovision, Blair deciding to resign end June 07, rather than July 07 (6pts @ 25-1 on July 07 bet 6 months ago!)), like a punch drunk boxer I'm getting back off the floor.

I think I've got two great bets for the Eurovision.

I'm backing Latvia for an outright win at 12-1 (Betfair) (8pts win). I've heard from a number of separate sources that Lativa won the Semi Final. If (and it is a big if) this is correct, this would make them favourites (maybe a 2-1 chance). While I'm not convinced that these rumours are correct, there is a reasonable chance they are.

As to whether Lativa can win, they have a mid to late draw, are part of a political power block (Baltic) and have a distinctive song/act (kind of G4). I underestimated the appeal of this type of act in previous TV reality votes (to my cost).

I'm also having a punt on one of the Semi Finalist to finish last. This is unlikely as they have obviously finished in the 10 top in the Semi Finals (via public vote). However, you are getting 10 runners of the 24 for your money and the 16-1 at Victor Chandelr seems too big. I mkae it closer to a 5-1 chance. I was planning to place 4 points on this, but Victor Chandler have restricted me to 2.5 points.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Draws prevalent in 1st leg of playoffs....take advantage

The amount of draws (39%) in the fisrt leg of the 'playoffs' for promotion in England are much higher than in conventional league matches. This is to be expected as:

- The sides are closely matched
- Neither side wishes to risk losing the first match
- The slightly better side is away in the first match

The 39% rate equates to odds of 6-4. Most bookies are going 9-4. By combining these draws bets in combination bets, the odds advantage is compounded (ironically, exactly what most bookmakers do each week!)

I'm therfore having 0.25 pts on each of the 5 timers (6 bets) and 1 accumalator. Not a large outlay, and a chance of of serious return.

Arsenal to win 2007/2008 Premiership - 16-1 Bet365

Bet365 are going a standout price of 16-1 on Arsenal to win the 2007/2008 Premiership. That is an insult. The correct price should probably be approx. 8-1. I tried to have 10 pts on this online, but the 'betmax' restriction was 30p. I suppoe it is quite an obscure market!

Anyhow, I rang them up and they have (generously) allowed be 1pt win on this at 16-1.

Update: After my attempt to put 10 pts @ 16-1, Bet365 have now cut the price to 12-1. Still a vaule bet, just not quite as good value. It is now clear that a £25 bet has this affect on one of the world's biggest betting markets. Bet365, you should be thorougly ashamed of yourself. Bet like men, not children!

Update 2: The price has now gone into 9-1 from the initial 16-1. What I really need is a bookie who is as incompetent as Bet365 AND will take a proper bet. How can a company like Bet365 get a basic market like this so wrong? And change their prices by nearly 100% in a morning? It is madness for them to have to restrict bets on this type of market - maybe they should give up.

Sunday, May 06, 2007

1000 Guines Preview - 2pts Win Simply Perfect (10-1) , 2pts Win Theann (25-1)

My bets are as follows:

2pts Win Simply Perfect - 10-1
2pts Win Theann - 25-1

Although Finsceal Beo has the strongest 2yo form, she is too short at 6/4.

Simply Perfect has been overshsdowed by her stablemate Sander Camillo. However, Simply Perfects's performance as a 2yo the merits respect. With the withdrawl of stablemate Sander Camillo (who overshadowed her), I believe she should be 2nd favourite at approx 5-1.

Theann is Aiden O'Brien's entry and that fact alone means that she she should be considered. Theann ran a respectable race in 5th in the Cheveley Park as a 2yo. In her reappearance at the Leopardstown trial, was only narrowly beaten in 3rd by Arch Swing and has a good chance of reversing places with this opponenet. The step up in trip should suit her as she was doing her best work in the latter stages. On raw ratings she has quite a bit to find, but at 25-1 merits an interest.

No, my name is not Tom Segal! These were selected last night, so it was worrying this morning (from price persspective) so see Pricewise select them.

However fortunately, once taking into account the withdrawl Sander Camillo, the prices I've taken are not signficnatly different from the prices Pricewise tipped at (phew!).

Saturday, May 05, 2007

2000 Guineas - Vital Equine - 1pt E/W Boylesports 1,2,3,4 places - 50-1

With the defection of Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor, this race has taken on a relatiovely open feel to it. My preference is for Vital Equine. He ran a fair trial in the Dewhurst last autumn, and must has a great chance of at least getting placed. He will be suited by the ground, course and trip and should surely be a much shorter price than 50-1.

I would have had 2pts E/W, but was limited to a 1 pt E/W by Boylesports who were top priced (50-1) with favourable E/W terms (4 places).

Update: Vital Equine has drifted to 50-1 at StanJames (who have the same E/W terms), so I've had a further 1pt E/W (taking the total stake to 2pts E/W). In addition, as a cover, I've also had 1pt win on Eagle Mountain (who is also too bigger price at 28-1).