Monday, May 07, 2007

Draws prevalent in 1st leg of playoffs....take advantage

The amount of draws (39%) in the fisrt leg of the 'playoffs' for promotion in England are much higher than in conventional league matches. This is to be expected as:

- The sides are closely matched
- Neither side wishes to risk losing the first match
- The slightly better side is away in the first match

The 39% rate equates to odds of 6-4. Most bookies are going 9-4. By combining these draws bets in combination bets, the odds advantage is compounded (ironically, exactly what most bookmakers do each week!)

I'm therfore having 0.25 pts on each of the 5 timers (6 bets) and 1 accumalator. Not a large outlay, and a chance of of serious return.
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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Chris

I don't really understand the logic of using the multiples when you don't have to. If you have an advantage on each bet, why lessen your chances of a return?

I could see the logic in a lucky 15 with double or treble odds one winner (as this offers an extra overlay), or a similar pattern, but this just seems like a multiple for the sake of it?

Nice blog btw, I enjoy reading the blurb especially on the more "exotic" bets. Good call in the 2000 as well it thought it was a very difficult race to predict.

12:12 pm
christrinder said...

The thinking is that by combining the bets, you multipy your odds advantage.

1:33 pm
Anonymous said...

Anonymous does have a very good point. If you think that the draws are value bets then there is no logic in only doing the 5 and 6 timer(s). Sure you should have done them - but you should certainly have backed the singles, doubles etc first. I would have thought that by doing the 5 and 6 timers you probably didn't get the very top price on each draw - hence you have actually lessened your expected return - rather than as you state multipling the advantage. You have fallen into the type of punter that betting shops love - the multiples - looking for the big one. BE interesting to see if you rethink and also back the draws on there own.

5:43 pm
christrinder said...

You are absolutley right.

I guess the situiation is silmilar to being offered 6-4 on the toss of the coin (but being restricted to 6 tosses). How would I bet? (if I could only have 11-8 when placed in accumaltors).

For maximum profitablity, I suspect you should only bet the singles. However, you lose very little margin by combining the bets.

With a restricted number of bets, the singles also make more sense.

11:00 am
Anonymous said...

I've done Singles and doubles. Cruel results so far! But never mind losing when doin the numbers!!!!

11:43 pm
Rob Barnes said...

Well it did seem like a good punt at the time!

9:10 am

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