Saturday, November 21, 2009
Halcon Generladis goes well fresh, will be favoured by the heavy ground and likes the course (Haydock). I think he has a better than 20/1 chance of winning this race (14/1?). I've had 2pts win at Betfair.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
5th in Series 3, Katie Price aka 'Jordan' has a serious chance of winning this event. There have rarely been such a high profile contestant. Critically, she will divide the audience in a love/hate way. As viewers are voting for participants (rather than to 'eveict'), this plays into her hands. I think she is reasonable value at 10/1 - a final three appearance is likely.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
I think Jimmie Johnson is a poorly priced favourite at 4/1 for this race. With 2 races to go in the Championship, he'll take no risks (especially after losing points in the last race). Hamlin has been in execllent form in recent races and has a good record at this track. He qualified in 5th, showing that his car has a decent setup. I've backed him at 8/1 (2pts Win)... 9/1 is availible at Paddy Power (where my bets are limited).
Jade Johnson suffered a serious injury yesterday forcing her to pullout from yesterday's SCD tournament. Under the rules of SCD, she is allowed to miss a single event. However, I think it is unlikely she will be back next weekend which leaves the BBC with 2 options:
1. Make the final consist of 2 couples (rather than 3)
2. Make next week's tournament a 'zero exit ' round
3. Allow the loser this week (Phil Tuffnell) to be return as a 'lucky loser'
I think 1. is the most likley option, but option 3 is a definate possibility (5/1?). If this happens, the the 250/1 is going to look pretty big - I'd then make him a 16/1 chance.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Those of you who follow my blog know I take a keen interest in betting for SPOTY. At present my portfolio has the following bets:
8pts Ennis 50-1 (now 4/1)
8pts Radcliffe 66-1 (now unquoted) - very unlikely
2pts Daley 200-1 (now 100/1)
I have now added what will probably be my final bet on this event. I've has 2pts E/W on Chrissie Wellington at 200/1. Your first response to this would probably be 'Chrissie Who?'. She is the three times Tri-athelete World Champion, winning the event again this year. I think there is a very real possibility that the Sports Editors who compile the the 'Top 10' list from which the public vote from will include her. Then it is up to the BBC how they present her achievements - she will then certainly have the publicity she needs.
What makes me especially keen on this bet is that Wellington has just won the prestigious 'Sunday Times Sportwoman of the Year', beating Ennis into 2nd place! (this competition has a similar voting methodology - list of 10, followed by public voting). Winners of this event have a good record in SPOTY. The past record is as follows:
2008 Nicole Cooke (unplaced)
2007 Victoria Pendleton (unplaced)
2006 (Doesn't seem to have been an award?)
2005 Zara Philips (1st SPOTY 2006)
2004 Kelly Holmes (1st SPOTY 2004)
2003 Pippa Funnell (unplaced)
2002 Paula Radcliffe (1st SPOTY 2002)
2001 Ellen MacArthur (2nd SPOTY 2001)
2000 Denise Lewis (2nd SPOTY 2000)
She is quoted at 100/1 at Coral at present - no other bookies quote her. I'd make her a 25/1 chance (at most).
Brazil hasve an excellent defensive record, but I still think England may well score a goal today. With Gerrard and Lampard out, Barry may play a more forward role (and will be likley to take penalties). The generally availible 25-1 on FGS/LGS is a reasonable price - I'd make him an approximtely 12/1-14/1 chance (the price his is at Betfred).
Paddy Power sponsor the Gold Cup at Cheletenham today and have a great offer. They are refunding losing stakes if the race is won by a Nicholls trained horse. Nicholls trains 3 fancied horses:
It therefore makes sense to pick a non-Nicholls horse. There are many of these with a chance, however I've gone for Tarotino (12-1). He has been impressive in his recent races and although he has been rasied 15lb since his last race at Bangor, he may stil have the potential to improve past this weight raise. The ground is a concern for the trainer, but I think the soft ground should not inconvenience (unlike many others) - her has previosuly win on the soft.
Sunday, November 01, 2009
James Wade is in the semi finals whre he plays Steve Beaton (Wade 1-3, Beaton 2-1). Paddy Power are very generously offering him with E/W betting (1/3) 1,2 at 9/2 for ouright betting. If you think the prices are correct (which I do), the E/W shape/nature of the market makes this a great bet. I've had a (max allowed) 5 pts E/W
Update: Perhaps it would have made more sense to back BOTH semi-finalists in the opposite half from Phil Taylor.
2nd Update: All bets (win/place) voided by Paddy Power.