Monday, December 31, 2007

Britney Spears to Marry in 2008 - 4pts - 8/1 - William Hill


It is distinctly possible Britney Spears will marry again in 2008. She has separated from her hisband Kevin Federline) and she is psychologiclaly prone to rash decisions Britney is reportedly 'involved' with her (male) PA Sam Lufti, with marriage a possibilty. (Other sourcs have Lufti as reportedly gay, which might be a bit of a barrier).

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22948098-5012974,00.html?from=mostpop

Britney has alreaduy been married twice (including one for 55h rs!, annulled), so a 2008 marriage is perfectly possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britney_spears

I've had 4 pts at 8/1 on this happening - I'd make it a 4/1 chance (although you can't use maths to work this one out!). It is as short as 3/1 at Ladbrokes (5/1 Skybet).

I'm still loooking at other novelty markets... no others curently strike me as great value, but still doing research.

Premiership/FA Cup Double - 12/1 - 6pts - William Hill


Prices are available for both the Premiership and FA Cup so it is relatively easy to work out what the chance of a double occuring, assuming they are unrelated events. I've done the maths and I make it an approx 6/1 chance (assuming unrelated events).

They are of course related, but if anything there is a positive correlation. A team that is strong is likley to win both events. Against this, they may also field weaker teams in the FA Cup as they are likely to also be playing in multiple competitions but I think that this is less of a factor.

Looking back in recent history, it has been achieved 3/10 years - this high rate is not suprising due to the increased dominance of the 'Big 4' clubs in both competitions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Double

Taking current odds and recent history into account, I would make thsi a 4-1/5-1 chance. I have therefore had 6pts (max. allowed) on the double occuring.

Premiership to be decided on Goal Difference - 1pt - 50/1 - William Hill


I've checked the history of the Premiership and since it's inception in 1992 no title has been decided on goal difference (15 runnings). However, three titles (94-95, 97-98, 98-99) have been decided by only 1pt, therefore I think that the 50/1 that William Hill are offering on the title to be decided on goal difference is a too big. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (this is an intuitive feel - I haven;t doen the stats anlysis to back this up- any volunteers?). No team is 'running away' with the title and conceivably any of the big four teams coudl still win. I've therfore had 1pt (max. allowed) at 50/1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Premier_League_seasons

British or Irish Trained Arc winner - 6/1 - 12 pts - William Hill


British and Irish Trianed horses have won 7 of the last 20 including 5 of the last 10Arcs. This increased domninance by British and Irish horses is primarily due to the increaed strength of the Coolmore and Godolphin breeding companies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prix_de_l'Arc_de_Triomphe

The French older horses in training in 2008 look nothing special. Therefore I think the price for a British/Irish winner should be approximatley even money - the 6/1 at William Hill looks a great bet. I've had 12 points, the max they will allow me.

(I have confirmed with William Hill that Saeed Bin Suroor's horses will be classfied as British trained.)

Congratulations to William Hill for actually being prepared to lay a proper bet (unlike many of your competitors - you know who you are!).

Saturday, December 29, 2007

US Presidential Election - John McCain - 8pts win - 20/1

John McCain is a standout 20/1 at William Hil for the US presidential election. National polls indicate a upturn in fotunes for McCain, in most part due to the success of the 'surge' in Iraq. (McCain had aligned himself with the Iraq campaign).

Guiliani 21.5
Huckabee 17.3
McCanin 15.5
Romney 14.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

A poor performance by Ronmey agauinst Huckabee in the first Primary in Iowa would weaken Romney. This would leave the path clear for McCain in New Hampshire. The race for the Republican nomination would then become a three horse race between McCain, Huckabee and Guiliani. That woudl be difficult to call, hence my wish to back McCain at 20/1.

(Of course if Romney does well in Iowa, I coudl be sitting on a handful of losing betting slips!)

Hopefully, whoever wins the Republican noimination will run against Obama, meaning I will be in a win-win situtaion. Otherwise I may have to re-adjust my position by backing Clinton.

Friday, December 28, 2007

2007 - Review of performance


Above are the financial figures for 2006, 2007 and combined 2006-2007.

As you can see, the annual % profitability has increased from 50.9% to 57.1%, whilst the annual profit has decreased from £9,625 to £7,200. This was as a result of making fewer, more profitable bets. It is a delicate balance, but in 2009 I expect to bet using a similar strategy to 2008. In addition, I am also being limited in stakes for the majority of my bets - it is getting increasinly difficult to get my bets on.

I can generally get reasonable bets on at the major bookies (e.g Corals, Hills Ladbrokes), but 'bookies' (if that is wht you call them) such as Bet365 have now restricted me to £5 max. bets - I've now stopped looking at their markets.

My most successful sports are Motor Racing (all types) and Speciality bets (even better, both combined!). Politics has been the least profitable but, ironically, this is where I have probably made some of the best bets!

In terms of an Antepost position, the most important for me are

- A1 GP - I have backed Jonny Reid at 40/1 E/W (currnetly 7/2 2nd Fav.)
- Politics (Presidentail Election) - I have good positions on all the front runners other than Clinton (most bets placed thsi time last year). (Obama 11-1 (2nd Fav. 4-1), Guiliani 16-1 (3rd Fav. 6-1), Huckabee 33-1 and Gore 33-1). The Primaries should be interesting! I'm considering adding a bet on McCain at 20-1....

As ever, if you want the full .xls file, drop me an email at chris.trinder@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Derby v Liverpool - 2pts Derby 8-1 (Draw No Bet)

Benitez (Liverpool Manager) can sometimes make strange selections/substitutions and today could be one of those days with a busy Christmas program ahead. Derby showed that they have the potential of springing a suprise - only a late equaliser ensured that they didn't take three points in their last match away to Newcastle.

Paddypower are offering a more than fair 8-1 on Derby to win with stakes returned if it is a draw. Bet365 offered 9-1 put they were only prepared to take £5 before cutting it to 8-1. Great work guys, £5 bets on Premiership games before cutting prices! Don;t give up the day job.... oops, it is your job.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Alesha to have solo UK No.1 in 2008 - 12/1 - BlueSq - 1.5 pts

I think BlueSq have quoted too bigger price on Alesha Dixon (ex-Misteeq) having a UK No.1 next year (2008). She is out of contract at present but looking to re-sign with a new label. Alesha has a new album of songs to promote and is likley to maximize sales of her album via releasing singles (whoch coudl very well go to No 1.) 2008 will be a key year - after that her SCD fame will start to taper off.

Bluesq have priced up a UK No.1 at 12-1 - Corals go a more realistic 2-1. I've had the max that BlueSq qill alow me (1.5 pts - tried to stake 4 pts.)

Monday, December 24, 2007

Osama Bin Laden to be Captured in 2008 - 1pt 33-1 - Skybet


Skybet have a number of 2008 specials. The only one I think at present is out of line is the 33/1 on Bin Laden to be captured in 2008. I would make it a 7/1 chance for the following reasons:

1. Bin Laden is likely to be in Pakistan or (less likley) Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan still remain under the control/influence of the Coalition forces.
2. He still has a large price tag on his head.
3. Several other senior Al-Qeeda operatives on the 'most wanted' list have been captured.
4. Bush would like to see Bin Laden captured before he leaves office in 2008.

Extercatte, Van der Voort and Suljovic all to win - Ladbrokes - 1pt - 200/1


Ladbrokes seem to be taking a chance on offering a 'special price' on these three darts players to win. I think the treble should be approx. 33-1. Extercatte has a real chance against Bates while Van der Voot and Suljovic are going to have to hope for off days from Lewis and Part respectively.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Will Leon be dropped by Sony BMG in 2008? - 1pt 16-1 Ladbrokes


Reality TV stars have a mixed record with future success. Winners such a Girls Aloud are still having success many years later. Most others are less sucessful. A classic 'failure' is X-Factor winner Steve Brookstein who was dropped by his record label 8 months after winning their competition.

I suspect that Leon will not have a particularly successful future with his record label. I would think that he most likley to be dropped in 2009, but if he doesn't have high sales in 2008, Simnon Cowell will not hesitate to drop him next year.

I'd make a 2008 separation a 4-1 chance (the price it is as Skybet). I'n therefore having 1pt (max. allowed) at Ladbrokes on Leon being dropped at in 2008 at 16-1.

Top Christmas Day Film - Love Actually - 6/1 - 3.5 pts (Totesport)


Regular readers of my blog will know I've backed 'To The Manor Born' as Top Christmas Day Program (at an average 20-1). By backing Love Actullay as Top Film, I've effectively got a quasi-hedge they both start at 9:30 p.m. It is of course possible that either both of neither bets could come in, but at 6/1 and 20/1 I'm prepared to take that chance.

Can Love Actually be top Chritsma Film? It is a definate possibility as it main competitors are on Chritmas afternoon. Audiences in the afternoon are signficnatly lower than in the evening. Although Love Actually will have a smaller % share of the watching audience than the afternoon films, in absolute terms (which is what is being measured) the number watching could be larger. Shrek 2 and Polar Express also clash, not heplful for films aimed at similar audiences.

I'd make Love actually a 2/1 chance and therefor I'm having 3.5 pst (max. allowed) at 6/1.

'Hat-tip' to J.O. Tobin who higlighted the chances of Love Atcually on the Betfair Specials Forum. Amongst the dross that is often posted (you know who you are!) there are interesting posts suich as this.

Update: Love Actually has moved into 4/1, still a good price.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Sports Personality Year 2008 Preview

In Olympic Years, it is best to side with those that will have success in Olympic Events. In the past three Olympiuc Years, the 1-2-3 were as follows (Olympians in bold) (2 from 4 winners, 8 from 12 places):

2004 : 1st Kelly Holmes : 2nd Matthew Pinsent : 3rd Andrew Flintoff
2000 : 1st : Steve Redgrave 2nd : Denise Lewis : 3rd Tanni Grey Thompson
1996 : 1st Damon Hill : 2nd Steve Redgrave : 3rd Frnkie Dettori
1992 : 1st Nigel Mansell : 2nd Linford Christie : 3rd Sally Gunnell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year

Past high performers in SPOTY have an execllent record futire record - being a previous winner is not a bar as Damon Hill showed in 1994/1996.

I have looked at British Olympians and the prospects for 2008 are:

Marathon: Paul Radcliffe (6/1) has an oustanding chnce of winning SPOTY 2008 if she wins Olympic Marthon Gold. She is a 5/2 chnce for Olympic Gold, but I can't help thinking she may struggle in the Beijing heat/smog (who can forget Athens, her only other Marthon failure). However, if she wins the Marthon I would be prepared to take a short price on her winning SPOTY 2008.

Heptathlon: Jessica Ennis (66/1) / Kelly Sotherton (50/1). Preference is for Jessica Ennis (she is improving each year. Kelly Sotheton continues to struggle with the Javelin. BlueSq make a Gold Medal winner from one of these two a 7/4 chance. They would be greatly assisted if the domimant force in this event (Kruft) didn't compete. This is possible via injury to her or if she chooses to concentrate ona single event (which is current rumour - I don't buy it myslef).

400m : Ohuruogu (33/1) - this is a competitive event and she may struggle to win Olympic Gold. Ohuruogu is additional tainted by the three missed drug tests.

EquastrianZara Philips (50/1), where the fact she is a Royal gives her extra media coverage and votes. She has qualified for Bejing 2008 and, if Toytown stys fit coudl put in a strong individual peformance.

Other than athletics, gymnast Beth Tweddle (66/1) and sailor Ben Ainslie (40/1) both have medal chances. Preference would be for Beth Tewddle due to her past SPOTY record and the fact Ainslie is not certain to complete in the Olympics.

(See article below dicussing medal prospects.)

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/08082007/58/beijing-countdown-british-hopes.html

Other than Olympians, other possible winners are :

Lewis Hamilton (will need to win the F1 World Chamionship) - (7/2)
Justin Rose (will need to win a golf major - (25/1)
Andrew Murray (will need to win to reach a final of a Grand Slam event, probably win it (other then Wimbledon when a final appearance might be enough) - (10/1)
Amir Khan - probably too early in his career - (25/1)

A footballer, cricketer or rugby player is unlikely as there are no major championships.

Conclusion

2 pts win Zara Philips - 50/1 (Corals)
2 pts win Equatstrian winning Sport - 40/1 (Corals) - (Corals limited me to 2pts on Zara Philips - not sure who else I have running for me!)
2pts win Jessica Ennis - 66/1 (Stan James)
1pt win Beth Tweddle - 66/1 (Corals)


There is market on Betfair that will allow trading during the year. This is especialy importnt on the SPOTY night as both Darren Clarke (2006) and Lewis Hamilton (2007) both traded at short prices and both finished 2nd. On the night coverage by the BBC can have a signficant effect. The BBC my well focus on the Olympics as, being a listed event, this is one of the few events where they have the rights to.

Any comments very welcome.... hopefully I can follow up with my success on 2006/Zara Philips (11/1) and 2007/Lewis Hamilton (25/1, laid at 1/3).

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Gerrard to captain England in their next match - 9/2 Boylesports - 3pts

The three main candidates for next England Captain are Gerrard, Beckham and Terry. It is unlikely that Terry will be fit in time for Feb, 6th 2008 (the date of this game). Beckham could be selected, but Capello is not one to let his heart rule his read - if he wishes for Beckham to have 100 caps, I would expect him to bring bBeckhma on Beckham hsa substitute rather tham make him captain.

Boylesports are taking a chance with their 9/2 quote on Gerrard captining England in their next match (Vcbet go as short as 5/4).

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Vettel - 4pts Win - Race of Champions -14-1 - BetDirect

Vettel has shown he is well suited to this event with an impressive performance in the fisrt part of this competion (Natiosn Cup). BetDirect are taking a chance in making him 14-1 - he is as short as 4-1 elsewhere.

Friday, December 14, 2007

X Factor - Same Difference - 5-1 - 12 pts.


I can't understand why Same Difference are 5-1. I'd make them a 6-4 chance. In most current polls they are polling similar to the 1-3 favourite Rhydian. Of course these polls cannot be fully trusted, but they have some measure of authenticity as they all seem to have the same approximate figures.

There are rumours that Same Difference polled similar to Rhydian last week which would also correlate with the current online polls.

Finally, Same Difference are singing a 'High School Musical' song which will surely appeal to the younger voting audience.

Update: 7.30 pm. The market was impressed with the first performance by Same Difference. I am taking advantage of this by laying my 5.8 'back' bet at 4.4. This means I am +16pts if Same Difference win and level if Leon or Rhydian win.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

2007 UK Christmas No.1 w/o X Factor Winner - Katie Melua with Eva Cassidy - 1pt, 5-1

Katie Melua and Eva Cassidy both have strong, loyal followings. The fact their record is is a charity record (for the Red Cros) will do it no harm.

Midweek sales indicate that Katie Melua will be No.1 this week. X factor will (obviously) be No1 the following week (the week the betting relates to), but at 5-1 I am prepared to have 1pt at 5-1 (Paddy Power) on Katie Melua taking the No 2. spot behind X Factor. (Max. Allowed).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7140478.stm

The only worry is that the single is only availible at Tesco (or by download at Tesco.com) but that doesn't seem to have affected sales this week.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Xmas Day Most Watched TV Program - To the Manor Born - 16/1


Eastenders and Corrie are rightly favourites for this market, but Skybet may hve priced up the one off special of 'To the Manor Born' at too long a price at 16-1.

Last years 'race' was won by a 'one off' comedy special (Vicar of Dibly) (although a more modern comedy). An audience of approx. 12 million will probably win the event this year - this is an potentially an achievable target for 'To The Manor Born' which was highly succeful at it's peak. A 9.30 p.m. time is OK - it doesn't have a strong oppositon at this time.

The Telegraph certainly think it has chance.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/27/nxmastv127.xml

I tried to have 4 pts but was restricted to 2 pts by Skybet.

Update: It turns out that Skybet opened up at 33-1 - it had been backed into 16-1 before I took a look at the market. Ladbrokes are 25-1 on 'To the Manor Born' - I;ve had a further 2pts on this price (max allowed). I missed this price as Ladbrokes are not appearing in the odds comparison sites for this market.

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Snooker Premier League Final - O'Sullivan to win 7-0, 7-1

The results of the last three Premier League finals were:

Ronnie O'Sullivan 7-0 Jimmy White
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Stephen Hendry
Ronnie O'Sullivan 6-0 Mark Williams

http://www.premierleaguesnooker.com/staticPage.asp?txtPageName=history

I'm more than happy to have 1pt at 40-1 at www.betfred.com on O'Sullivan winning tonights final against John Higgins 7-0. The quickplay format of thsi event suits Ronnie O'Sullivan and if he wins the first few frames, he mway steamroller Higgins. I've laso had 1pt at 14-1 on a 7-1 win in case Hendy nicks a frame.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

What will the Pope say first during his Urbi et Orbi?

Pappy Power have opened up a market on what will the Pope say first during his Urbi et Orbi at Christams 2007. The current Pope has made 2 of these speeches (2005, 2006) and 'saviour' would have won both times. I'm therefore had a (maximum allowed) 0.5 pts at 12-1 on this happening again.

Those of you who wish to see the speaches can do so at:
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/urbi/index_en.htm

This of you who wish to hear the 2006 speach can do so at:
http://www.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?c=109856

How many text messages will be sent on New Years Eve? 2.5 pts @ 13/8 > 205 million (Paddy Power)

d wrld S txt crzy, so itz no suprise d C d no. of txt messgs sent on nu yrs Eve continually rising. d record 4t past 3 yrs S as follows (MDA figures)

20o7 - 214 million text messages
2006 - 165 million
2005 - 133 million

Paddy pwr av priced ^ hw mnE wl B sent dis nu yrs Eve. 205 million S md a 13-8 chnc - I tnk dis isa gr8 prices n shd B closer 2 a 1-5 chnc - I realy cnt C der bn less txt mesages dis yr (provide d SMS netwrk holds up). They've allowd me 2.5 pts wich S resonable on a mkt lk dis.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Oscar - Best Picture - American Gangster - 9-1 - Sportingodds

I've decided to get involved in this market before the award season commences (and before nominations). This is a risk as the awards leading up to the Oscars often give a very good indication of future success. However, I think tht 'American Gangtser' is highly likely to be nominated. If it is nominated, it will be an approx 3-1 chance (at most).

I've decided to back 'American Gangster' on the following grounds

- Outstanding director (Ridley Scott), who has never won an Oscar
- Strong commercial performance
- Favourable critical reception (I liked it!)
- Released at end of year....'Oscar time'

Most of all, the competion looks weak (the only other 'banker' is Atonement).

The only worry is that it is similar to 'The Departed', the winner last year - this may count against it.

I tried to have £100 ar Sportingodds- they restricted me to £5 at 9-1. However, better than the 37p Bet365 allowed me at 8-1. I tried to call them for a larger bet -they've now allowed me £10 at 7-1 and cut the price to 5-1 - guys, please try harder - a £5 bet shoudln't cause a (near) halve in price. New to bookmaking are we?

P.S. I hope to have a bet ready for IACGMOOH on Friday morning.....tune in then! Also, if you backed the iPhone to sell less than 150,00 by Christmas you can probably collect your money now - it sold only 26,500 in the first 2 weeks!

Hennessy Gold Cup - Snowy Morning- 4pts win


I've backed Snowy Morning at 10-1 for the Hennessy Gold Cup. He has since shortened today to 7-1. I think he will start at approx. 5-1 on the day.

He will be racing of what I belive is low handicap mark following his (hampered) run at Chletenham. He is weighted to reverse places with favourite Denman baaed on this run. I bigger danger is Abgregante and, as an outsider, Dream Alliance.

He is now a likely runner following the booking of Tony McCoy. The trainer had (controversial) success in the race with 'Be My Royal' and thus knows what it takes to win the race.

Update: I've had 1pt on Dream Alliance at 22-1 this morning (Saturday). I'm going to Newbury and will back exactas/trifectas with Snowy Morning, Abregante and Dream Alliance.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

IACGMOOH - Colour of Gemma Atkinson's first Bikini - White - 4-1 - 1pts

I have really hit the either the high point (or low point) by betting on this market at Paddy Power. Early publicity shots have Gemma Atkinson wearing a (predominately) white bikini.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/showbiz/showbiznews.html?in_article_id=492891&in_page_id=1773

The article states that she is only taking in two bikinis. In the last series, Mylene Klass made a great impact with a white bikini.

At most, I would make a white bikini an even money chance. Therefore I'm having 1pt at 4-1 on a white bikini (max. allowed).

Next Lib. Dem Leader - Chris Huhne - 5-2 - 8 pts

The race for the next Lib Dem Leader is between Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg. They both are standing on similar policy mandates (Chris Huhne is slightly to the left).

Voting is by a ballot of the membership. There are no polls that I know of taken of the Liberal memberhsip. Nick Clegg has greater support of the Liberal MPs, but unlike the Labour ballot, the Liberal MPs votes do not have greater weight.

Chris Huhne stood last time against Menziues Campbell and got 42% of the vote.

I'm struggling to understand why there is a signficant difference in prices. (maybe someone can enlighten me?). I'm therefore backing Chris Huhne at 5-2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election,_2007

Update: I've had a further 4pts at 7-2. The polls say Clegg, but I'm convinced that due to Huhnes impressive performances, there will be a late surge for Huhne - I think this will be very close.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Haye v Mormeck - Haye to win by KO in Rnds 1-3

Haye v Mormeck are both great boxers, with impressive records - difficult to call the outright result. If Haye wins this, it is likey to happen again by an early KO.

- 1st Rnd (3 from his last 9 fight)
- 1st 3 Rnds (6 from his last 9 fights)

http://www.boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=155774&cat=boxer

I've had 2pts at 20-1 for a 1st round KO and 1 pts on each of Rnds 2 and 3 (both 20-1), total stake 4pts. N.B. My Skybet account is restricted otherwise I'd have take the 25-1 availible there on Rnd 1.

No. 1 Christmas Video Game - High School Musical: Sing It!

This is an interesting market compiled by Paddy Power. The 2nd/3rd/4th favourites are already released (PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2008 (12-1), FIFA 08 (2-1) THE SIMPSONS GAME (5-2) - I think this will count against them. They occupy the current first 3 positions in the chart.

http://www.charttrack.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110015

The hot favourite is 'Need for Speed - Prostreet' (5-4). This could be a false favourite - it is scheduled for release on 23 Nov and pre-orders via Amazon.co.uk do not look high. I'm therefore backing the No. 1 in the Amazon pre order chart (High School Musical - Sing it) at 33-1.

Positives:
- Anything connected with HSM has high sales
- Interactivity via a Microphone (multiple-players)
- 'Family title' (Christmas is a family time!)
- Release close to Christmas (13 Dec)

Negatives
- Only availible on one older format (PS2)- not sure how this will affect sales. Is there anyone connected ith the Video Games industry who can comment on this?
- The Amazon sales chart does not seem to match the Chart Track chart - can anyone comment on this? Not sure why they would be so different? Do they serve different markets?

I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Will the iPhone succeed in the UK?

Paddy Power hve opened some interesting markets on the iPhone. I think that the iPhone is overpriced (for the technology it offers), depite the innovative GUI. As an (expensive, 18 month) contract phone, it is not ideally suited as a Christms present. It is only being sold on a single network, O2 for £269 + £35 month - UK consumers are not used to spending this mount on a phone AND a significant monthly expenditure. The fact that is hard to make carrier free (as well as the technical weaknesses) will not endear it to tech. fans.

In the US, there waa a price cut after 2 months, despite the initial hype. I am thefore having 1pt (max allowed) on the folloing two bets:

How many iPhones will be sold before Christmas? < 150,000 (5-1) ... O2 are expecting approx 200,000 sales, so this is not significantly less than their estimates.

iphone price be reduced in the UK? Nov 07 - Jan 08 (5-1) ... I can see a price drop in January 08 when sles do not meet expectations.

Monday, November 05, 2007

Where will Alonso drive in 2008?

First of all, apologies for not updating my blog recently. You may know that I work in IT, and I've been very busy plnning/executing a Datacente move that happened last weekend. Hopefully I will actully have some evening/weekend time now!

The main bets I hve missed out on our Fabregas FGS/Anytime bets....

Regsrding the 'Where will Alonso drive in 2008?' market, there are several possibilities:

McClaren - no chance
Ferrari - unlikley, now that contracts with Raikkonen/Masa have been signed
BMW Sauber - unlikely - would require a BMW driver going to Mclaren
Williams - possible, in conjunction with a Rosberg -> McClaren move
Renault - possible, but could stumble on Briatore's demand for more than a one year contract
Toyota - unlikely, given he has already turned down an offer, but still possible
Red Bull - ubnlikely, given size/performnace of team

I think the other teams would be too small.

The value bets are I belive Alsonso taking a year in the US before returning to Ferrari in 2009. I've had 1pt each on Nascar (1000-1) and Champcar (1000-1) (Betfred). Mansell made the transition in the 80's and either of these moves could act as a year 'filler'. Champcar is proably the more likely of these - Bourdais seat is free, and Alonso could be a winner again.

For those of you who don't believe in 1000-1 winners, have a read of this.... and think why my blog is so named!

http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/April/Markethighlights/tabid/803/Default.aspx

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Brazil GP - Hamilton to finish Lap 1 in worse position than Grid


Hamilton is 2nd on the grid, but for a couple of reasons I think he could be in a worse position at the end of lap 1:

- he is starting from the dirty side of the grid (like all even grid positions) - this will hinder his start
- he has 2 rivals who can win, so he needs to keep any confrontatiosn mimimized. Therfore from a "game theory" perspective, he is likely to 'back out' from an early confrontaion with Raikonnen (in 3rd) at the first corner. I think Raikkonen (or even Alonso in 4th) will try to make a move on Hamilton, most likely going into the first corner.

The 11/4 at Skybet is a more than reasonable price - I'd be going 5/4.

The only possible issue is that Hmailton is such a racer, he won't back out - however, depsite his young age and racing mentality, he will not want to throw the championship away.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

RWC Final - No Tryscorer - 16-1 - 2pts


I think that the RWC final could be relativey tight. The last 4 finals have had 2,2,0,1,2 tries respectively.... I think 16-1 is reasonable value for 'No Tryscorer'. I'm having 2 pts on this.

Tote Cesarewitch - Dr. Sharp, 2pts Win 14-1

I've missed the 'fancy' prices on Dr. Sharp in the Cesarewitch Ante Post market, but I still think Dr. Sharp is a godd bet at the generally availible 14-1 - I'd make him a 7-1/8-1 chance. He has a lot going for him:

- Two recent promising runs shows he is back to form after a poor early season
- Soft (Good to Soft in places) Ground
- High Draw (31/36).
- Trainer in form
- Ran well in the race last year from an unfavourable draw
- 2lb lower in the weights than last year
- Front running tactics minimise the possibility of trouble in running

Others I think have a good chance are Fair Along, Marcoville and, at a bigegr price, Ned Ludd.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Dr. Who to star at National TV Awards


Unlike the National Movie Awards, the (publicly) voted National TV Awards have soem 'form' to follow:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_National_Television_Awards

There are clear patterns to follow. The most noticeable is the success in the Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Drama in 2005 and 2006 for Dr. Who (new series). They clearly have a committed fan base which ensure their success. For this reason I'm hgaving the following bets at Skybet:

2pts Dr. Who 4/9 - Best Drama
2pts Freema Agyeman (Dr. Who)- 5/4 - Best Actress (limited from 6 pts)
4pts David Tennant (Dr. Who) - 11/10 - Best Actor (limited from 10 pts)

I think that the best bets on the other markets (looking at historical trends) are as follows:

Best Reality - Big Brother - 4/9
Best Serial Drama - Eastenders - 11/8
Ant & Dec's Saturday Night Takeaway - 2/7
Best Entertainment Presenter - Ant & Dec - 1/4

I've not had any bets on these markets - still considering...

Saturday, October 13, 2007

A1GP - Is Reid (NZ) underrated? I'll make Stan James pay!


A1GP is relatively low profile and currently only one bookmaker has prices on the championship (Stan James). I have backed New Zealand at 33/1 for the season (4pts E/W). They make now New Zealand 25/1 chances for the season (www.stanjames.com) - a price that is availible at 11.15 a.m.

I've aslo backed New Zealadnd for this weekend for Sprint Qualifying/Soprint Rac and Main Race Qualifying/Main Race. The qualifying fro the Sprint and Main Races takes place today at 1 p.m. (UK time) with the Sprint and Main Races tomorrow. The format (and otehr detaisl on the event) can be seen at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A1gp

(Unfortunately Stan James has now taken down the markets for this weekend's qualifying sessions and race).

Newe Zealand have a great record in A1GP coimg 4th (2005-2006) and 2nd last year (2006-2007). Their improved performace is atributable to the increased use of Johhny Reid (identical cars are used by all partcipants). Johnny Reid will again be the main driver this year.

He is racing this weekend in the Czech republic - he had a great ride in qulaifying there last year, on pole. Unfortunaetly he went out on the first lap of the Sprint race. This compromised his main race (different qualifying system last year).

So why is Johnny Reid/New Zeland such a big price? I can only put this down to the 'recency' affect. He has a poor race last race (first race of the season). It looks like Stan James have based their current season prices on the this first race, rather than last season. Although there is a little merit in this (show the speed of the current drivers), I am sure they have read too much into this race.

The other resaon why these prices migfht be wrong is the low profile of this series - it would be virtually impossible to price up a Premisership match inccrrectly. Thsi shows the benefit of conecentrating you attention on 'specialist' events.

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Year of Next UK General Election



Quick reactions can lead to great bets... it happened last year for me for on bets on SPOTY (Zar Philips, 11-1) and SCD (Mark Ramprakash). Typically, Betfair has reacted and you have have 15 mins (max.) to put your bets on with bookies.

A situation like thsi occured yesterday. It was announced as the lead story on BBC News that Gordon Brown has ruled at this Year (2007) for a General Election. There as no way they would have lead with this without being 100% sure (it turns out that Andrew Marr/BBC was having a one-to-one interview).

The odds on a 2007 General Election had moved to 40-1 at Betfair. However Willima Hill were still offering 4-6 on there NOT being a General Election in 2007. Not bad prices for a two runner race! William Hill limited me to pts. I also placed 0.5 pts at 40-1 on Betfair on a 2007 Election, in the (unlikely) event of a change of mind by Gordon Brown.

On a related market, I as able to back a 2009 General Election at 4/1 at Coral. I was limited to 4pts. This is now an even money chance on Betfair, as Gordon Bron has said a 2008 election is also unlikely.

These markets were pulled by the bookies approx. 15 mins later.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Hyypia to score anytime (Liverpool v Tottenham) - 16-1 - 2pts

With Agger currently injured, Hyypia is the target man for Liverpool for headers at corners. He has yet to score this season, but looked a potent threat in mid-week v Valencia. Liverpool were poor in that game, but could easily bounce back against a Spurs team especially weak at defending at set plays.

William Hill are taking a chance at offering Hyypia at 16-1 - he is signficantly shorter elsewhere. I'm having 2pts at this price on Hyppia scoring at anytime in the match.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

2pst Lescott (Everton) - 9/1 Anytime scorer v Metallist

I;ve steered clare of Football bets (First/Anytime scorer) this season, however it has become *blindingly* obvious that defender Lescott (Everton) is a master of scoring from set plays. For this reason. I've had 2pts on Lescott (Boylesports) to score anytime tonight v Metallist.

Everton are 4/5 chances away at Metallist (I think they probably shoudl be shorter), and there is no reason to suspect Lescott is any less likely to score this evening than previous games.

Sunday, September 30, 2007

2007 Q3 and Overall Results




I've had a good Q3 2007, whcih means that my overall profitability is back on course for a ROI of approx 40%.

If anyone wants a copy of the full .xls, send send me an email.

Lock in Hamilton F1 Championship Profits.


Having backed Hamilton at 25-1 for the F1 Championship, I'm not about to see my profits disappear with a freak result at China and/or Brazil. I'm hence laying Hamilton at 1.1 on Betfair.... he possibly should be a slightly shorter price (maybe 1.07/1.08) bit I am happy to pay a small premium to lock in these profits.

(My intial bet 9 months ago on Hamilton for the F1 Championship is linked below!)

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Next London Mayor - market mayhem

There are signficnat discrpancise in this market. Following Johnson's slection (which was a foregone conclusion!), the best prices availible at 8.15 p.m. today (Thursday) are:

Livingstone (Skybet) 4/5
Johnson (Bluesq) 2/1
Paddick (Coral) 25/1

I find this market very hard to call. With an over-round book of 93%, there has to be value, I'm just not sure where! (Comments welcome). Of course, I could arb but with the stakes I can get on, I woudn't win a great amount. However, anyone who has an unrestriced account (*unlike me :) ) could have substantial three figure amounts on the 2 front runners making a tidy profit.

Next Premiership Manager to leave.



I've taken a combined approach to this market:

1. I've backed Grant to be the next Prem. Manager to leave at 14-1 at Skybet. Any Manager who's nickname is BBC ('Bibs, Balls and Cones') can't have the highest reputation. If Chelses start poorly, he could be let go when Euro Qualfication finishes in Nov 08. If this happens, he could be the next Prem. Manager to leave. He doesn't even have a contract.

I've 1pt at 14-1 on Grant to go first.

2. I've laid Jol and Lee on Betfair, both at 2.02 (1.02-1). This market is a 'rumour based' market and hence has large volatility. I've had 4pts matched on both of these individuals at what I consider are short prices.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Chelsea Specials - Chelsea Premier League Position on Dec 31st 2007

Victor Chandler have opened a market on this:

First 3/1
Second 2/1
Third 2/1
Fourth 5/1
Any Other 10/1

I think "Any Other" might be a bt of value at 10/1. In the short term I think Avram Grant might get off to a poor start... just a hunch really, but sometimes you have go with them.

Avram Grant has not the strongest managerial record... mainly being a "Big Fish" in a "Small Pond" i.e. Israel. He is however well respected (e.g by Harry Redknapp), but that is different to actually achieveing something. With the transfer window closed, he'll have to work with Mourinho's squad which may not be the players he can work with effectively.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avram_Grant

I'm having 4pts on "Any Other".
___________________________________________

Update from Victor Chandler, midday Friday:

VC Bet report a mini gamble on Chelsea to be out of the top four in the Premier League at the end of this year, after taking cash at 10/1 overnight.

"It was a decent price and we weren’t surprised that the public have latched on to it," said football compiler Thomas Balbuena.

"When the dust settled, people began to look at Avram Grant and the reaction of the players, and they feel Chelsea could well struggle. We’ve had to cut the price to 5/1, but we still might get more cash at that price."

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Tour Championship - short priced Woods gives place value.

The Learderboard going into the final round of the Tour Championship is as follows:

Tiger Woods -19
Mark Calcavecchia -16
Sergio Garcia -14
Zach Johnson -13
Hunter Mahan -12

Woods is the clear favourite, howveer this gives the possibility of some E/W value due to a lopsided book. I'm suprised to see Coral offering 1/3 odds 1,2 (they are the only bookmaker offering E/W prices). Their prices for these runners are:

Tiger Woods 1/20
Mark Calcavecchia 14/1
Sergio Garcia 20/1
Zach Johnson 50/1
Hunter Mahan 80/1

If you do the maths, E/W bets on all of the runners (other than Woods!) should be profitable. I've had 2pts E/W on Calcavecchia at 14/1 - I think the other will struggle to come back from more than 3 shots in the unlikely event of a poor Woods round.

Sunday, September 09, 2007

IRL - Peak Antifreeze 300 - Hornish/Wheldon to star.


There are 3 drivers in with a chance of the championship, Franchitti, Dixon and (quite a way back) Kannan. I think there are two great bets on this market at Stan James:

Sam Hornish - 18/1 - 4pts E/W
Dan Whledon - 25/1 - 4pts E/W

Franchitti and Dixon will be concentrating on finishing in front of each other, with Kannan focussing on helping Franchitti(they drive for the same team).

Castroneves has a chance, but is too short a price compared to his team mate Hornish. Hornish starts one place in froint of him on the grid (2nd!) and cannot be missed at 18/1. He wil be trying his utmost to win this race as it is his last race before he leaves for Nascar. Unlike recent races, this is an oval rather than a road course and hence will be to his liking.

Staring form 5th on teh grid, Wheldon will be looking to support teammate Dixon. However, the best way will be to do this from the front. He is back on his favoured oval circuit and will be keen to make up for a disappointing seam. He is not to be missed at 25/1.

Update: Hornish is now 15/2 and Wheldon is now 6/1!

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Who is Macca Dating? Back his ex-wife at 250-1 to be the next.

Stranger things have happened.... I can see them getting back togther again (well, they have a child in common). You'd think all the hurt they'd gone throught would rule this out... but maybe absence will make the heart grow stronger.

I'm having 0.5 pts at Paddy Power's generous 250-1.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

National Movie Awards - Preview

The National Movie is a new event started up as a partner to the succesful National TV Awards. They are voted on by the public and Skybet (in the form of Helen Jacob) should be congratulated for opening a market on this event.

Prices below from Skybet and my thoughts on each event as follows:

National Movie Awards Action/Adventure - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Casino Royale 1/3
Transformers 7/2
300 7/1
Die Hard 4.0 12/1

Casino Royale is rightly a short price for this. It is has the biggest UK box office this year and is a British film. The other films have made little box office impact. I would make it a 1-10 shot - I'm very tempted to have a max. bet on this.... I'll steer clear this time, just becasue it is the fisrt awards. There is certainaly no value in the other runners.

National Movie Awards Animation - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
The Simpsons Movie 10/11
Shrek the Third 11/10
Happy Feet 8/1
Flushed Away 16/1

The two market leaders are by far the most likely winners. A tough category to call. I'm steering clear of this market, but if you forced by hand I'd side with Shrek the Third

National Movie Awards Comedy - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Borat: Cultural Learnings of American 1/25
Hot Fuzz 6/1
Mr Bean's Holiday 33/1
Night at the Museum 33/1

I think the market is wrong on this. Mr Bean and Night at the Museum are very unlikley winners, but I'd make it mush closer between Borat and Hot Fuzz. Both are aimed at similar demographics and did similar business at the Box Office. I'd make it 1/2 Borat, 2/1 Hot Fuzz. If ony I could lay Borat at 1/25! Instead, I'm having 1 pt on Hot Fuzz at 6/1

National Movie Awards Family - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 1/10
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 8/1
Spider-Man 3 8/1
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 33/1

I think that this market is wrongly priced up as well. Harry Potter took approx 10% more at the Box Office - they were the 2nd and 3rd biggest UK Box Office this year (after Casino Royale). Harry Potter may be affected by the fact it has a younger (non voting) audience. I'd make this 1/2 Harry Potter, 2/1 Pirates. I'd like to be able to lay Harry Potter at 1-10! Instead I'm having 1 pt on Pirates at 8/1

National Movie Awards Family Best Male - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Daniel Craig (Casino Royale) 2/1
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) 2/1
Daniel Radcliffe (Order of the Phoenix) 5/2
Tobey Maguire (Spider-Man 3) 6/1
Orlando Bloom (Pirates of the Caribbean) 14/1
Rupert Grint (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix) 20/1
Shia LaBeouf (Transformers) 20/1
Bruce Willis (Die Hard 4.0) 20/1

I tough category to call. You can rule out Willis (too old, low box office), LeBeouf (unknown, low box office), Grint (only role is to split the 'Harry' vote), Bloom (similar to Grint, but for the Pirates vote).

The other 4 all have chances, but my gut feel is that this will come down to Depp, Craig and Radcliffe. It's a tough call, but I'm coming down in favour of Craig, but not strong enough to have a bet.

National Movie Awards Family Best Female - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Keira Knightley (Pirates of the Caribbean) 11/8
Judi Dench (Casino Royale) 4/1
Kirsten Dunst (Spider-Man 3) 4/1
Eva Green (Casino Royale) 5/1
Emma Watson (Order of the Phoenix) 5/1
Megan Fox (Transformers) 8/1

I suspect that this will go to Keira Knightley - it is difficult to make a case for any of the others, other than perhaps Eva Green at 5/1 (Casino Royale could sweep the board). I just fear Eva Green is perhaps not quite well knwon enough. However at 11/8 I'm not quite tempted enough to have a bet on Ms Knightly.

P.S. I'd have had 4 pts on each of the 2 bets I had (Hot Fuzz, Pirates) but Skybet restricted me to 1 pts on each. (had to ring up for that, 0.01 pts availible online). Just checked other bets - on the Internet I'm know restricted to 1/100th of what other users are allowed as my max bets.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Tennis - US Open Preview

I have read two excellent reviews of Mens/Womens US Open events at:

www.bettingzone.co.uk
www.racingpost.co.uk

They agree substantially with each other and I am in strong agreement of the majority of the content of the articles. Rather than rewrite the content, please read the articles at the original source!

I've therfore had the following bets.

2.5 pts E/W Hewitt (33/1) (Mens US Open)
2 pts E/W Chakvetadze (33/1) (Womens US Open)
2.5 pts E/W Kuznetsova (25/1) (Womens US Open)

I've also had a 0.5 pts E/W double on each of Hewitt/Chakvetadze and Hewitt/Kuznetsova

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Prix de L'Arc - Sageburg - 4pts win - 25-1

I'm still looking looking for the next Rail Link i.e. the Andre Fabre trained winner of the Prix Niel. At the weekend, Sagburg ran an execlllent trail and as is apparanetly being aimed at the Prix Niel. He is owned by The Aga Khan and trained by Andre Fabre .

I've invested 4pts at 25-1 at Victor Chandler - generally 20-1 elsewehere. Just wish I was on at the 350-1 he has been backed at on Betfair! If he wins the Prox Niel, he will probably start 5-1 for the Arc, gievn the strong record of Fabre trained horses (unless some barmy Japanase turn up again!).

Monday, August 13, 2007

Cincinnati Masters - 2pts E/W - Roddick - 14/1

Roddick looks a more than fair price for the Cincinnati Masters at 14/1. He had two wins and a second in the past 4 years. Back-to-Back Masters events mean that Canadian finalists Federer and Djokovic have to be opposed - they could well be tired from last night's final and could go out early in this tournament. In addition, Federer has a poor record in this event. Nadal didn't look convincing in Canada and has a poor record in this event. Roddick has been in good form recenetly, winning in Washington and only losing to an impressive Djokovic in the Canadian 1/4 finals. He is in the weaker part of half of the draw, away from Djokovic and Federer and will have strong US support. Therefore I've had 2pts E/W on Roddick at 14/1.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Premiership Top Goalscorer - Mikael Forsell - 250/1 - 1pt E/W

I've read a large number of betting previews for the forthcoming season and, as is to be expected in football, there are very few 'value' bets - the bookies have this sport well covered.

From past seasons, it is highly likley that a 100/1+ chance will get placed. This is often the lead stroker in a smaller club. Highlighted on www.bettingzone.co.uk are the chances are Mikael Forsell. 3 years ago he had an oustanding season on loan from Chelsea. He has suffered from injuries since but is back to form in pre-season friendlies (5 from 5).

You are taking a lot on trust re: injuries but this is more than factored in the price. If he scores 15+ goals he is highly likley to reach a place.

Big Brother - Liam to win - 20/1 - 2pts


With the creataion of 'Samanda', Brian is starting to look an uneasy favourite. The only other partcipant who looks like they are in a with a chance is Liam. 20/1 in a three horse race looks good value... they always say back the outsider of three! I think his price is likely to contract.

Any winnings from this will more than make up for my losses on the pitiful new entrants who have look like losing my bets on 'Any Other' being the winner (I guess Jonty may have an outside chance).

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Premiership Manager of the Month - August 07 - Allardyce

Premiership Managers of the Month have fall into the following two categories (analysis from last four years):

'Top 4' Winner - 16/36
'Non Top 4' Winner - 20/36

(Stats. from http://www.premiershiplatest.com/manager-of-the-month.html)

There is an obvious bias towards the top 4 teams, but not so serious that it cannot be overcome. Ferguson (9-2) and Mourinho (5-1) are unsurprsingly the first and seeond favourites. However, Sam Allardyce has won a signicant no. of 'Manager of the Month' awards with Bolton (4/36) which puts him amongst the leaders in terms of strike rate.

Newcastle play one game less than the majority of other Premiership sides (3 rather than 4 games.) This means they are unlikely to lead the Premiership (where the one fewer games is a major handicap). However, 3 wins from 3 would put Allardyce in with an excellent chance of the Premiership Manager of the Month for August.

Can they achieve this? A relatively quiet summer in terms of new player purchase could count against Newcastle long term. However, with new tactic/training methods deployed over the summer, I suspect that Allarydce will make a improvements just with the current squad. He can certainly improve on the performances produced by previous Newcastle managers, a fact that will count in his favour.

I'm therfore suprised to find Allarydce is 25-1 for August Premiership Manager of the Month. I've therfore had 4pts on this at Paddypower.

Update : This has been backed into 18/1 but is still value at this price - I'd make it a 10/1-12/1 chance.

UK Box Office - "The Simpsons", Transformers to take less than £12m

This weekend, both 'The Simpsons' and 'Transformers' are launched. The top grossing UK film will typically take approx £16m during an opeining weeekend (e.g. Shrek III, Harry Potter). Paddypower have a market as to how much each of these films will take. I think that they could both take lower than expected as they are both fighting against each other and the recently launched Harry Potter film (similar audiences). An quick analsysis of the no. of screens showing each of these films shows 'The Simpsons' is showing on the most screens. 'Transformers' doesn't seem to be showing on signficantly more screens than Harry Potter. The bets I've placed are therefore as follows:

'Transformers' to take less than £12m - 6-4 - thsi is one of the great bets of all time - I'd make it a 1-5 chance. I've had 4 pst on this - the max online they would allow me.

'The Simpsons' to take less than £12m - 5-1 - this should proabably be an even money chance. I've had 1pts on this , again the max online they would allow.

The benefit of this approach is that I would think it was virtually impossible for both films to take more than £12m (i.e. either the 6-4 bet or the 5-1 bet (or both) will win).

Update: This market is now closed. The results can be seen at

http://www.ukfilmcouncil.org.uk/cinemagoing/boxoffice/ ... I also used this for the historic statistics.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

3.45 Ascot - Trafalgar Bay - 2pts Win -33-1

Tafalgar Bay has performed well at this course in the past. He was unlucky in his last run and had unsuitable ground the time before. I think he his great price at 33-1 - I'd make his a 14/1-16-1 chance.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Cadel Evans - Tour De France - 4pts win - 20/1 - Skybet


With the sensational news that Rasmussen has been sacked by his team, the Tour De France is likely to go to either Contdaor (Discovery) or Evans (Predictor-Lotto). In this two horse race, 20/1 at Skybet is great value on Evans - he is as short at 3/1 on Betfair. To be honest, nothing would now surprise me... abandoned TdF, further drug withdrawals....

Sunday, July 22, 2007

David Beckham to miss a penalty in his first season - 10/1 - 2pts

LA Galaxy have 20 of 32 matches left this season. Give his pivotal role at the club, I think it is likely that Beckham will take the penalties at LA Galaxy (he has been a penalty taker for some of his previous clubs/country). If this is the case, then the 10/1 at Stan James that he misses a penalty at some point during the season is great value.

(See analsysis below)

The conversion rate for penatlties is approx 80% (0.8)
The % of matches with a penalty = 25% (0.25). No. of penalties that LA Galaxy expect to receive in remainder of season = 0.25 x 0.5 (they receive half penalties in matches) x 20 (no. of matches) = 2.5
Probablity that a penalty is missed (2 penalties, conservative) = 1-0.64 = 0.36 i.e. approx 2-1 chance.)

Open Golf (Final Round) - 1pt Cabrera - 500-1

Garcia with his new putting technique is clearly the favourite this afternoon, but never fear one golfer. I think anyone Evens or shorter has a chance (albeit probably small).... therfore I'm having 1 pt at 500-1 on Carbrera. A Major winner this year, his game is suited to links golf and had a strong finish appearance last time at Carnoustie (although it was a much different course then).

Lewis Hamilton - European Grand Prix - 33-1 - 0.5pts E/W

The Mclaren cars are of a similar pace to the Ferraris at this track. If Hamilton starts from 10th on the grid, he should finish, at worst, 4th. He has show in GP2 and in an earlier F1 race that he has the ability (and now F1 car) to pass all bar the Mclarens and Ferraris. Massa has also demonstated in a previous race this season the ease in whcih the two leading teams can carve their way through the pack.

33-1 is probably a fair price for the win element, there will need to be something 'strange' to happen for him to win ie. rain, (possible), a signficant crash at the front (possible) or mechanical problems (again possible).

What attracts me to this bet is the fact Bet365 are going 1/4 1,2,3 which gives me 8/1 on a podium finish. This should be at most a 4/1 chance. Bet365 initially offered me 0.05 pts E/W on this bet (£1.25) but I've mangage to persuade them to let me have 0.5 pts E/W (not the 2pts E/W I wanted).

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Open Golf - 1st Round Leader Graeme Storm - 125/1 - 1pt E.W

Graeme Storm has a lot going for him to be first round leader

- Good recent record in recent first rounds.
- Early tee off time (secong group out).. could miss any change in weather i.e. if the wind gets up.
- Aptitude for links golf

I'm having 1pt E./w at Boylesports at 125/1

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Big Brother - 'Any Other' winner - 20-1 2.5pts win

Big Brother is currently sferring from poor ratings. In order to improve these ratings, it looks like that new male housemates will be introduced (who will be eligible to win the first prize). The 20/1 could look very generous if this happens....male competitors have an excellent record with the core voting audience of teenage giirls.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news_detail.html?sku=2010

Update: Ladbrokes seem to be out of line with their competitors...I have had these additional bets:

1pt - Male winner to be 'Any Other' 33-1
1pt - Female winner to be 'Any Other' 33-1
1pt - Outright winner to be 'Any Other' 25-1

Update 2: I've had a further 1.5 pts at 20-1 at Stan James on 'Any Other Winner'... I'm convinced new HMs will shortly be entering... Ms McCall hinted as much on Friday.

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/bb/2207_housmates.shtml

Scottish Open - Webster - 2 pts win - 20/1

Post Rnd. 3, Mickleson leads by one shot from Havret. Mickleson (-12) is rightly favourite, however at heavily odds on he has to be opposed. I believe Havret (-11)will struggle under the prerssure of playting with Mickleson so I think the bet has to be Webster in 3rd place (-9) at 20/1. The others playeres at -8 or worse I believe are too far back, 4 shots behind Mickleson.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe - Airmail Special - 20-1 - 4pts win



After backing Rail Link last year, I've been looking for a horse with a similar profile and prospective campaign. I've think I've found one in Airmail Express. This horse is trained by Andre Fabre and has been recently purcahsed by Sheilk Mohammed with the ARc as a likley target.

The horse is aimed for the Grand Prix de Paris on Sturday and will then be most likely sent to the Prix Niel. Prix Niel winners have an excellent record in the Arc - a win in this race would most likley make the horse one of the favourites.

Update: This horse has been backed in today from 20-1 to 12-1. The 12-1 is probably a fair price - I'm happy with my 20-1 voucher (see above). Good to see others are sharing my opinion!

Sunday, July 08, 2007

Montgomerie next European winner of a major - 33-1 - 4pts

Montgomerie has recently hit form with a third last week and a win this week on the Europen Tour (first win 1 1/2 years). I give him a good chance at Carnoustie for the British Open, where he was 14th the last time the Open was played here in 1999.

The best part of this bet is if Monty doesn't win and no other European wins, this bet rides to the next golf major.

I think that Cabrera also has a great chance at Carnoustie.... I'm thinking of an E/W bet on him later in the week...

Saturday, July 07, 2007

Leeds Utd to be relegated from Division One - 25-1 - 4pts

Leeds Utd are currently imploding. It is difficult to call how the latest financial mess will work out, but there is a reasonable possibility that the Football League may deduct points. Alternativley, Leeds Utd may miss games at the start of the 2007-2008 season - either way, with a pts. handicap, 25-1 to be relegated could look at massive price in 9 months time. I;d certainly prefer that price than the 6-4 to be promoted.

Update: The previous bet was at Ladbrokes. I've had a futher 4 point at William Hill at 20/1 at 2pts at Totepsort at 22/1

Sunday, July 01, 2007

French Grand Prix - Sutil to finish in the points - 50/1 - 1pt

With forecast rain at Magny Cours, there is the possibility of abnormal finishing positions. An argumanet could be made for backing outsiders E/W at three figure prices, however the it is difficult to pick a single driver (maybe Honda?).

Instead of betting on the ouright market, I've had a bet on Sutil to finish in the points. In practice at Monaco (the only other time it rained) he topped the time sheets. Clearly this combined driver/car combination can handle the rain and a car which would normally be off the pace comes right into the mix.

With rain, there could be as few a 10 cars finishing, meaning that is more than possible for Sutil to get a top 8 finish (certainly no 50-1 chance).

Saturday, June 30, 2007

Northumberland Plate - Dr Sharp - 2pts win - 22-1

Dr Sharp has been in poor form this year, but has missed his favoured soft ground. The Northumberladn Plate today will give him his preferred trip/ground and he can spring a suprise.

From his draw, I can see him taking the lead from the off and outstaying the other runners in this easy ground. I'm going win rather than E/W in case his form has really dropped off this year (as opposed to just not having the right conditions).

Not happy that I missed the easily availible 33/1 thsi morning, but the 22/1 (with money back for 2nd place at Paddy Poweris is still good value).

Monday, June 25, 2007

Andrew Murray - SPOTY without Hamilton - 33/1 - 4pts

"I refer the honourable genteleman to the answer I gave some moments ago." Commonly heard in the House of Comnmons, I'm adapting this for the 2007 SPOTY Market without Hamilton. 4 Bookies have opened up on this, so it is time to take a look at this market.

Those of you who read my blog regularly will know that the SPOTY market has been very sucessful for me. Having locked in my Hamilton profits for 2007, I believe there is good money to be made in the "SPOTY 2007 (without Hamilton)" market. The current market leaders (with top prices from the 4 bookmakers who have priced this up) are:

Frankie Dettori - 15/8
Ricky Hatton - 11/2
David Beckham - 10/1
Monty Panesar - 12/1

After that, it is 20-1 Bar.

Fankie Dettori has a reasonable chance as who will probably be pushed by the BBC as they have the Derby as one of their few remaining high profile events to cover. With QoS, Dettori has both a celeberity appeal and another reason for BBC to 'push' him. However, Racing has a poor record in SPOTY and Dettori's achievements has not been outstanding this year so far. Yes, his first win the Derby was impressive but not quite a Frankie 7 when he cam only came 3rd in SPOTY. At these prices he makes no apppeal.

Ricky Hatton is short priced only due to the recency effect having won at the weekend. He is a geat boxer, but just too little knon by the voting public. The low profile of boxers and the fact votes are normally split across several boxers means that he has much less chance than his odds imply.

David Beckham as a chance as he has had a good football season, but footballlers only tend to do well during major championships as they are not helped by playing in a team game. Beckham will also not get full support form a single club (unless US fans start voting!). The celeb factor helops in his favour, but surely there will be bigger sporting achivements.

Monty Panaser has developed a 'cult' following, howveer with no major cricket championships and the fact crickets votes coudl be spread across several players (e.g Pietersen), he makes no appeal.

At a massive 33-1 at Skybet (20-1 at Stan James, as low as 10-1 at Ladbrokes), Murray is a graet bet. I'm having 4pts at 33-1 on Murray. He is a big price as he has just pulled out of Wimbledon (the recency affect again!). However, there is still the US Open to go where he is a 10/1 chance. His attitude could count against him, but if he makes US Open final appearance (5-1 chance?) he would be hard to see out of the top 2 (with Hamilton) - rememeber Greg Rusedski won SPOTY with a US Open Final appearance.

Most tennis votes will go him unless Tim Henman makes progress at Wimblendon.... he is now into teh 5th set with Moya....

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Wimbledon Men's Championship - Roddick Back (to Lay) at 20.0 on Betfair.

Fededer is by far the most likely winner of the Men's Championship at Wimbledon. However, he has missed Halle (his normal prep. tournanment for Wimbledon) and, since the Australian Open, has not looked quite as formidable as he normally does. Against this, he will undoutebly raise his game for Wimbledon, as it is a Major on his favourite surface grass.

There is a chance, due the lack of preparation, that he could suffer an early defeat. If not, he is likely to meet Roddick in the Semi-Final. Roddick has a easy quarter and it would be a big surprise to see him not reach the Semi-Final. He won his prep. tournament and seems to be thriving underr new coach Jimmy Connors.

If/when Rodicck reaches the semi-final, a decision can be taken whether to layoff part or all of the stake. Roddick has a terrible record against Federer, so if both do reach the Semi-FGinal it would seem prudent to at least lay back the stake.

The other half of the draw is much more competive - there are 4-5 playesr who could reach the Final. There is an argumanet to be made for backing one of these players E/W (due to the lopsided nature of the draw), but it is tricky to pick the correct player.

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Six monthly update on performance.

The statistics speak for themselves:

Performance in past 6 months: Level
Performance since start of blog (Jan 06): +37%


Since the new year, I've placed fewer of the smaller bets I used to place and concentrated on longer term, larger bets. The idea is that this will reduce the 'random factor' of sports. Overall turnover is also reduced.

This looks like it has hit my profitability i.e reduced it to zero! However, my outstanding antepost bets are looking profitable - in fact if you factored in their 'current value' (i.e. if it was possible to lock in profits on Betfair), the profitability looks very good.

Overall, I'm still satisfied with my performance - I've had a number of near misses at big prices and therefore being 'even' over a 6 month period is acceptable.

Monday, June 18, 2007

America's Cup - Correct Score Betting - 5-0

These are the previosu results from the America's Cup.

2003 Switzerland Alinghi won 5-0 New Zealand
2000 New Zealand won 5-0 Prada Challenge Italy
1995 New Zealand Black Magic won 5-0 Young America United States
1992 United States America won 4-1 Il Moro di Venezia Italy
1988 United States America won 2-0 New Zealand Challenge
1987 United States Stars and Stripes won 4-0 Kookaburra Australia

Notice a pattern? It is clear that a win to zero is highly likely. I suspect the reason for this is the 'compressed' nature of the racing final. If 2 F1 cars raced head to head over a 2 week period in a best of 9 tournanment, it is highly likely that one would win 5-0 as one drive/car combination would be relatively superior and would only lose a race by mistake/accident etc. The short time period would mean that there woudl be no time to make substantial changes to the equipment (car/yacht.... almost said boat :) ).

I'm not sure what the outright prices were before the previous finals... the prices this time are approx 4-6 Switzerland, 6-4 New Zealand. Although this may indicate unpredicatability in the outcome, this does not necssarily mean that a 5-0 result is unlikely - just that it is uncertain WHO will win 5-0.

Liquidity in light on Betfair, however I have managed to get on the following bets:

5 pts Win 8-1 Switzerland
0.5 Win 10-1 New Zealand (cover bet)

P.S. Bet365 also bet on this market... I don't dare to to put a bet on with then. 5p?

Sunday, June 17, 2007

US Open - Top European (Market Post Rnd 3.) - Petterson - 33/1 - 1.25pts

The market (and current scores) for the Top European at Stan James are as follows:

10/11 Rose (+5)
Evens Casey (+5)
10/1 Fasth (+7)
33/1 Petterson (+9)
40/1 Dougherty (+9)
50/1 McDonnell (+10)

I think any of the 3 longer priced players are value at this venue - it is so easy to drop 4 shots in a couple of holes.

P.S. I'm hoping to post a bet at approx 9 p.m. on a player who posts an early score of approx +6/+7 - I believe this score could win today.

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Rugby Union Tri Nations - Australia - 16-1 - 2pts SportingOdds

I'm not a Rugby specialist, but 16-1 on Australia seem to be too big a price for the Tri Nations. I've looked back over past recors and also looked at the current team strengths and I am I'm sure this should be a shorter price. Perhaps I'm missing something?

I wonder if sometimes less knowledge can be better ... you could proabbly spend hours studying Tennis Mens Grand Slams, but I'm sure that you probably need to look no further than Federer and Nadal... all the form analysis and knowledge of the other players is probably wasted.

Jamieson Gold - 9-1 - 2pts -2.25 Sandown

Jamieson Gold will be ideally suited by todays race. He is on a fair handicap mark, the same as when who previously won at Newbury (at 20-1). He has had a prep run to get him fresh and, most importantly, he will be able to handle the soft ground well. Many consider this horse inconsistent. I think this is wrong, as, with soft ground, his form figures are 2-3-1-0. The trip is ideal at 7f and he has previously shown form at this track. At 9-1, I think he is a great bet (hope my judgement isn't being clouded by the fact I backed him at Newbury!)

AS this was a Pricewise tip as well, the price has now gone into 13/2, but it is still reasonable value at that price. Being a Pricewise slection in fact gives me additional confidence in this bet as, during the 2007 Flat season, Tom Segal has hit good form.

US Grand Prix F1 - 2pts Heidfield - 9-2 Betdirect

At present the Mclarens seem to have the measure of the Ferraris, both in qualifying and race pace. In addition, Hamilton/Alonso appear to be a better drive combination than Massa/Raikkonen.

This is largely factored into outright prices. However, I think there is still profit to be had in backing Haidfield in the BMW for a Podium position at 9/2 (at Betdirect). The BMW has been clearly the next best car (after the top 4) and with Kubica injured, I make Heidfield the clear 5th favourite for a Top 3/podium position.

The price difference between Heidfield and Massa/Raikonnen for the podium position is just too big.....I'd have had had 4pts at 9/2 on Heidfield, but Betdirect restricted me to 2 pts. :(

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Lock in SPOTY profits (62 pts) - Lay Hamilton at 1.37

After backing the winner of SPOTY 2006 at 11/1 last year, last Christmas, rather than gibving you my heart, I previewed the SPOTY 2007. My sole bet was Hamiltion at 25/1 (4 pts).

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html (look approx. half way down)

I've now decided it is time to lock in 62 pts profit by laying Hamilton at 1.37 for SPOTY 2007 on Betfair. He is clearly favourite at present, but there is still 6 months (and many Sporting events) to go e.g Golf Majors, Tennis Majors and the World Atchletics Championships. There is also the 'celebrity factor' which could give Dettori/Beckham a chance.

This lay off takes away 6 months of uncertainty... still rooting for Hamilton to win the F1 Chamionship though, with 3 pts E/W at 25-1 and 10 pts at 5-1 on a top 3 finish!

(Perhaps I should stick to just SPOTY betting?!).

BTW, at the request of a reader, I will post an update on results at the end of June 2007. This will be a % profit since the start of my blog (Jan 2006-June 2007), for this year (Jan 2007-Jun 2007) and a record of outstanding bets.

Saturday, June 09, 2007

Take advantage of Musselburgh draw....

Low numbers have a very strong record in the 3.45 at Mussleburgh. I've therefore had 0.2 pts on each of the forecasts on the following horses (Drwaw 1,2,3).

Selection: River Falcon
Selection: Fullandby
Selection: Handsome Cross

All have reasonable form in what is a tight handicap (i.e. horses weighted to finish close to each other) - the low draw could make the difference.

I'm hoping a winning foresast will pay at least 50/1+.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Next Man City Manager - Graeme Souness - 2pts 25-1

I've a sneaking feeling that Man City may be stupid enough to appoint Graeme Souness. This (once) great club have made poor managerial appointments in the past and I think they have sufficiently poor judgement to make this (absurd) decision.

The imminent takeover puts this appointment difficult to call, hence the folly of taking short prices (e.g. those of you who backed Ranieri at odds on need to hang your heads in shame).

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Epsom Derby - take on Authorised with the O'Brien horses.

Authorised is a short price favourite for this race. This based on it's victories in two key trials (Racing Post Tropy, Dante) - however, there were not strong fields for both races. He should like the trip/ground, but Epsom is a unique course so I am happy to take him on.

I seriously considered laying Authorised for a place at 3/1 with William Hill or backing O'bRien to have the winner at 2/1, but instead I've decided to back the O'Brien runners with the following 2 bets

- 12/1 to have the first 2 home (2pts)
- 40/1 to have the first 3 home (0.5pts)

I will have the follwoing horse running for me:

Archipenko
Eagle Mountain
Soldier Of Fortune
Admiralofthefleet
Mahler
Yellowstone
Anton Chekov
Acapulco

If O'Brien can't decide which will do well, I'm not going to try and second guess him! (However, I think Achipenko and Eagle Mountain have the strongest chances, as indicated by their prices).

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Monaco Grand Prix - is a shock going to happen?

If there ever is to be a shock in a Grand Prix, it is likely to be in Monaco. The tight curves and (potential) rain means that an upset is always possible. Who can forget Panis in 1996? For this reason, I've placed 0.5 pts (in total), spread across the following drivers, all at 1000-1 (!) (on Betfair)

Jarno Trulli 1000 £2.00
David Coulthard 1000 £2.00
Heikki Kovalainen 1000 £2.00
Rubens Barrichello 980 £2.00
Jenson Button 1000 £2.00
Ralf Schumacher 1000 £3.72
Alexander Wurz 1000 £2.00

This is in addition to the Hamilton (F1) /Wheldon (Indy 5000) double at 16-1 I placed midweek.

If the rain doesn't come, I think the winner will come from Alonso/Hamilton. I'd make the betting a lot closer - Hamiltion at 5/2 is a fair bet. Alonso will probably lead to the first corner, but 4/6 is no value on him for Monaco. Hamilton could easily be carrying more fuel which could give him a critical edge in this race.

In addition, those laying Massa at 12/1 on Betfair could look at little red faced in 3hrs time.

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Indy 500 - 5pst Win - 4-1 - Dan Wheldon - Pinnacle Sports

A weak qualifing performance from Wheldon 6th on the Grid) has persuaded Pinnacle Sports to make Wheldon 4-1 for the Indy 500. I'd make it a 2-1 chance at most. He has been consistently fast this week, and never qualifies particularly well. He has been clearly the fastest man this season in Indy Racing.

He is as short as 9-4 elsewhere for the Indy 500. I'm having 5 pts at 4-1 on a Wheldon victory.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Indy 500 & Indy Championship Season Bets

The Indy 500 is the only time that Indy Racing gets decent media coverage (and hence a reasonable number of bookmakers betting on it).

Most of the major bookmakers have opened books on the race. The one bet I considered having was Dan Wheldon at 11/4. However, instead of backing hime for the race (which you always need luck to win), I've backed him at 15/8 to win the Indy Racing Championship. He was unlucky not to win the Indy Racing Championship last year, and has looked clearly the best driver this year (he is leading the Championship). I'd have made him a even money chance (at most). WWinning this race will help in in his chmapionship battle.

http://www.indycar.com

I'm therefore having 15 points at 15/8 on Dan Wheldon for the Championship at Paddy Power - he is closer to even money elsewhere. Look, Bet365 you can take bets if you want to! (Bet365 are 5/4 and restricting me to £1.60 (ONE POUND SIXTY on this market).

I also can't resit a few specialiaty bets from Ladbrokes combining the Monaco Grand Prix the Indy 500 as follows:

4 pts on Danica Patrick to lead at some point in the race at 5/1. She is unlikely to win the race, but given the length of it, there are plenty of opportunities for crashes and hence offset fuel strategies.

3 pts Double on Lewis Hamilton to win Monaco and Dan Wheldon to win the Indy 500 at 16-1. Hamilton has an execllent record at Monaco and this Sunday is the time for this naturally talented driver to come of age. I've outlined Dan Wheldon's chances above.

1 pt Double on David Coulthard to make the podium at Monaco and Dario Franchitti to make the podium in the Indy 500 at 40/1. Coulthard has an excellent record at Monaco (finished on the podium last year in a weaker Red Bull) and his Red Bull has recently showed signs of improved performance (with a 5th in the Spanish Grand Prix). Franchitti has a reasonable podium chance.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

England to beat West Indies - 3-1 -10pts (@end of West Indoes 1st Innings)

I'm suprised to see England at 3-1 to win the 1st Test after West Indies have been bowled at on the 4th morning of the 1st Test. I can see England scoring approximtaely 235 and putting West Indies in with 1 hour go go tonight with a target of 350.

A lot will depend on the weather on Monday....not great forecast (hence the price)

My plan will be to lay off on England if they come down to at evens (i.e to be level on the Draw and West Indies and +20 pts on England).

Update: 18:15 Due to the uncertainty around the weather (and the lack of an aggressive declaration), I have closed back my position at 3/1 (i.e. no win/loss)

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Spinks v Taylor - Spinks to win on points - 10/1 - Betfair - 2pts

Both fighters have a record of fights going to points (especially Spinks). There is no reason to suspect that the outcome tonight will be any different. Therefore, the two potential bets are :

Taylor - Pts - 5/2
Spinks - Pts - 10/1

While Taylor is the more likely winner on pts., the difference between the prices is to large (I've seen strange judges scoring so many times). For this reason, I'm having 2pts on Spinks to win on points.

FA Cup Final - 2pts E/W Vidic - 1st Goal Scorer - 33-1 - William Hill

With an injury to Carvalho, Essien drops back to the centre of defence for Man Utd. This could leave Chelsea exposed to aerial threats from set pieces. Vidic is ideally placed to take advantage - he has scored four times this season.

I'm having 2pts E/W at 1/2 1,2,3 on Vidic for first goal scorer.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Eurovison Preview (Part 2!)

After the betting disaster of 'Black Thursday' (Switzerland out from Eurovision, Blair deciding to resign end June 07, rather than July 07 (6pts @ 25-1 on July 07 bet 6 months ago!)), like a punch drunk boxer I'm getting back off the floor.

I think I've got two great bets for the Eurovision.

I'm backing Latvia for an outright win at 12-1 (Betfair) (8pts win). I've heard from a number of separate sources that Lativa won the Semi Final. If (and it is a big if) this is correct, this would make them favourites (maybe a 2-1 chance). While I'm not convinced that these rumours are correct, there is a reasonable chance they are.

As to whether Lativa can win, they have a mid to late draw, are part of a political power block (Baltic) and have a distinctive song/act (kind of G4). I underestimated the appeal of this type of act in previous TV reality votes (to my cost).

I'm also having a punt on one of the Semi Finalist to finish last. This is unlikely as they have obviously finished in the 10 top in the Semi Finals (via public vote). However, you are getting 10 runners of the 24 for your money and the 16-1 at Victor Chandelr seems too big. I mkae it closer to a 5-1 chance. I was planning to place 4 points on this, but Victor Chandler have restricted me to 2.5 points.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Draws prevalent in 1st leg of playoffs....take advantage

The amount of draws (39%) in the fisrt leg of the 'playoffs' for promotion in England are much higher than in conventional league matches. This is to be expected as:

- The sides are closely matched
- Neither side wishes to risk losing the first match
- The slightly better side is away in the first match

The 39% rate equates to odds of 6-4. Most bookies are going 9-4. By combining these draws bets in combination bets, the odds advantage is compounded (ironically, exactly what most bookmakers do each week!)

I'm therfore having 0.25 pts on each of the 5 timers (6 bets) and 1 accumalator. Not a large outlay, and a chance of of serious return.

Arsenal to win 2007/2008 Premiership - 16-1 Bet365

Bet365 are going a standout price of 16-1 on Arsenal to win the 2007/2008 Premiership. That is an insult. The correct price should probably be approx. 8-1. I tried to have 10 pts on this online, but the 'betmax' restriction was 30p. I suppoe it is quite an obscure market!

Anyhow, I rang them up and they have (generously) allowed be 1pt win on this at 16-1.

Update: After my attempt to put 10 pts @ 16-1, Bet365 have now cut the price to 12-1. Still a vaule bet, just not quite as good value. It is now clear that a £25 bet has this affect on one of the world's biggest betting markets. Bet365, you should be thorougly ashamed of yourself. Bet like men, not children!

Update 2: The price has now gone into 9-1 from the initial 16-1. What I really need is a bookie who is as incompetent as Bet365 AND will take a proper bet. How can a company like Bet365 get a basic market like this so wrong? And change their prices by nearly 100% in a morning? It is madness for them to have to restrict bets on this type of market - maybe they should give up.

Sunday, May 06, 2007

1000 Guines Preview - 2pts Win Simply Perfect (10-1) , 2pts Win Theann (25-1)

My bets are as follows:

2pts Win Simply Perfect - 10-1
2pts Win Theann - 25-1

Although Finsceal Beo has the strongest 2yo form, she is too short at 6/4.

Simply Perfect has been overshsdowed by her stablemate Sander Camillo. However, Simply Perfects's performance as a 2yo the merits respect. With the withdrawl of stablemate Sander Camillo (who overshadowed her), I believe she should be 2nd favourite at approx 5-1.

Theann is Aiden O'Brien's entry and that fact alone means that she she should be considered. Theann ran a respectable race in 5th in the Cheveley Park as a 2yo. In her reappearance at the Leopardstown trial, was only narrowly beaten in 3rd by Arch Swing and has a good chance of reversing places with this opponenet. The step up in trip should suit her as she was doing her best work in the latter stages. On raw ratings she has quite a bit to find, but at 25-1 merits an interest.

No, my name is not Tom Segal! These were selected last night, so it was worrying this morning (from price persspective) so see Pricewise select them.

However fortunately, once taking into account the withdrawl Sander Camillo, the prices I've taken are not signficnatly different from the prices Pricewise tipped at (phew!).

Saturday, May 05, 2007

2000 Guineas - Vital Equine - 1pt E/W Boylesports 1,2,3,4 places - 50-1

With the defection of Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor, this race has taken on a relatiovely open feel to it. My preference is for Vital Equine. He ran a fair trial in the Dewhurst last autumn, and must has a great chance of at least getting placed. He will be suited by the ground, course and trip and should surely be a much shorter price than 50-1.

I would have had 2pts E/W, but was limited to a 1 pt E/W by Boylesports who were top priced (50-1) with favourable E/W terms (4 places).

Update: Vital Equine has drifted to 50-1 at StanJames (who have the same E/W terms), so I've had a further 1pt E/W (taking the total stake to 2pts E/W). In addition, as a cover, I've also had 1pt win on Eagle Mountain (who is also too bigger price at 28-1).

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Man Booker International Prize - Preview

Several bookmakers have not opened up on the Man Booker International Prize. The contenders are listed at the official site:

http://www.manbookerinternational.com/about/contenders

I believe that these type of contests are relatively open. The decison in this case is made by small number of judges who may easily have a strong preference for any one of the shortlised authors.

This prize is given for 'lifetime achievement' in literature. It is the 2nd time this award has been made - the first time it went to a (realtively) unkonw Albanian author.

The contenders this time are fairly mainstream. I've slected two against the field, both who have a strong literary career.

Michael Ondaatje - 25/1 - 2pts Win (as short as 8/1 at Paddy Power)
Chinua Achebe - 20/1 - 2pts Win (As short as 5/1 at Paddy Power)

(With a cover of stakes on Margaret Atwood at 14/1)
(All bets at William Hill)

As you can see, bookmakers prices are relatively different. This means that although this is a speciality market with high overounds, by choosing best bookmakers prices you get a 105% book.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Are Bet365 bookmakers?

I tried to place a £25 E/W on a First Goal SCorer bet on the Chelsea V Liverpool match at Bet365 and was restricted to £2 E/W. Last night I tried to place a £100 bet on the Indy Racing and was restricted to £0 (and they then moved the price in of the selection). So my question is

Are Bet365 bookmakers?
Yes
No
  
pollcode.com free polls

Friday, April 20, 2007

Snooker World Championship - 4pts E/W Ryan Day - 66/1

With 2 long-priced winners in the past 2 years, there is no need to be afraid of backing an outsider in the World Chamionship. My initial thought on this event was to back a player E/W in the (weaker) bottom half of the event. However, I've struggled to find a decent priced player who cna make progress.

Instead, I've turned by attention to the top half. I think I've spotted some value in the 'Quarter of Death'. In this quarter, Day plays Robertson, with the winner of this match playing the winner of the O'Sullivan - Ding Junghui contest.

Day has not previously progressed beyond the 2nd round in his 2 previous visits to the Crucible, however he lost in tight matches as follows:

2004 10-9 Higgins
2006 13-10 O'Sullivan

He has played reasonably well this season (his best season yet) reaching the quarter-finals of the Northern Ireland Trophy 2006 and runner up in the Malta Cup 2007, losing 9-4 to Shaun Murphy.

If Day gets beyond the 2nd round (a big if!), he has a great chance of winning the tournament.

Indy Racing League - 4pts E/W Sam Hornish - 5/1 - Japan 300

This weekend is the 3rd round of the Indy Racing League. I'm pleased to see that a 'proper' bookmaker (Ladbrokes) have started betting on this league.

This weekend we are back to an Oval course (as opposed to a street course) which should benefit Hornish and Wheldon. Hornish has qualified in 5th and is consequently a great price for the race. Whedlon should be favourite, but I'd make Hornish the clear 2nd favourite at approx 3-1. Barring accidents, I am confident that Hornish will make the top 3 hence I;m placing amn E/w bet to nothing.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Grand National Preview

The Grand National appears especially competitive this year. This is not good new as I backed the SP of the favourite to be 5-1 or less on 14.02.07 (4pts)

(http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html)!

As the ground has softened, I've watched my AntePost fancy Mckelvey be backed into 16-1 (without taking the 50-1, 2 weeks ago). Damm. At the prices now, of the leading contenders you can make strong case for the following:

Point Barrow
Hedgehunter
Mckelvey
Billyvoddan
Dun Doire
Bewleys Berry
Monkerhostin

For this reason, rarher than an outright or E/W bet, I've looked for a bigger price horse to make a place. (Typiclly, bigger priced horses don't actually win the race.)

William Hill have some generous 'place only' prices and I've had 2pts on Thisthatandtother to make the first 4. He has a touch of class about him and the 28/1 is more than fair to make a place. The conventional thinking is that he won't stay (which is possiblly true) but I'd say he was simply unproven over the National trip. Nicholls thinks the 100-1 outright is an insult.

My bet of the race is not in the outright market, but a Skybet special. They make Idle Talk 10-1 to Pull Up. This is a great price - I'd make it substantially shorter. I'd have had 4pst on this but Skybet have restricted me to 1pt. Many horses pull up in the National and Idle Talk did on his last visit to Aintree.

Good Luck All!

Monday, April 09, 2007

Englan to win Cricket World Cup - 25-1 - 4pts Win

England have performed reasonably well so far in the World Cup, narrowly losing to Sri Lanka and Australia. However, the other results have meant that if they win their remaining 3 games against South Africa, Bangladesh and West Indies they will qualify for the last 4. South Africa is the key game - if they win this they are likely to go through to the last 4, irrespective of the other 2 results, via NRR.

The Betfair market on this has South Africa at 6-1 and England at 25-1. England seem a great price at 25-1 - I'm having 4pts win.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Neel Jani to star in Champ. Car.

Although Sebastian Bourdais merits the maximum respect, Neel Jani has a chance of posting some impressive performances this season in his Red Bull powered car. He has been impressive in pre-season testing, typically making top 3 times. Pre-season testing times should not be overly relied upon, but it is probably worth chancing a small investment.

I've therefore had 1 pt E/W on Neel Jani at Stan James at 25-1 on the Championship.

In qualifying for the firat race of the season at Las Vegas, Neel Jani has not qualified particluarly well. However, with Bourdais inear the back of the grid, I believe that Jani is worth an investment.

I've therefore had 0.5 pts E/W on Neel Jani at Stan James at 33-1 for this race.

Update: Though you might be interetsed in this 'Live Chat' with Bet365!

James D: Hello, welcome to bet365 Live Chat. How may I help you?
Chris: Good Afternoon. I've tried to place £25 on Neel Jani for the Las Vegas GP and there seems to be a problem.
James D: What seems to be the problem?
Chris: I have only been offered 30p E/W. That is £0.30. Surely some mistake?
James D: The amount offered to a customer depends on the nature of the event and our Traders’ estimate of the likely profitability of that customer’s business. We are sorry that the amount offered in this case is less than you would like to have staked.
Chris: As in £0.30 vs £25? Do you think 30p is a reasonable maximum size for a bet from one of the UK largest bookmakers?
James D: As I said, I am sorry that the amount offered in this case is less than you would like to have staked.
Chris: Do you think 30p is a reasonable maximum size for a bet from one of the UK largest bookmakers?
James D: I am afraid I am unable to comment on that.Is there anything else I can help you with today?
Chris: Yes, are there any markets where I might place higher value bets? Woudl you take, say, £1 on Premiership matches or would that be too large bet for Bet365?Chris: (that is 100 pennies).
James D: We take each individual bet on it's merit's, so I could not comment on what would be offered on Premiership matches
Chris: My thinking is that your motor traders aren't prepared to stand by their judgement (despite the fact they have the % margin in their favour). Why is this?
James D: As I said I cannot comment on this, it is a trading decision.You were informed of the restriction on your account on the 20th March, and I am afraid these will stand
James D: Is there anything else I can help you with today?
Chris: Lack of confidence in your motor traders is not a trading decision, it refects you confidence in your traders? Why don't you just change them?
James D: As I said, I am not prepared to comment on this further. I will terminate this chat unless there is anything else I can help you with?
Chris: Is there anyway that I can have my limits raised, say to 50p? I know that is a big bet.
James D: As I said, I am now terminating this chat.

From the server records, I know Bet365 read this blog... hi guys!