National Movie Awards - Preview

The National Movie is a new event started up as a partner to the succesful National TV Awards. They are voted on by the public and Skybet (in the form of Helen Jacob) should be congratulated for opening a market on this event.

Prices below from Skybet and my thoughts on each event as follows:

National Movie Awards Action/Adventure - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Casino Royale 1/3
Transformers 7/2
300 7/1
Die Hard 4.0 12/1

Casino Royale is rightly a short price for this. It is has the biggest UK box office this year and is a British film. The other films have made little box office impact. I would make it a 1-10 shot - I'm very tempted to have a max. bet on this.... I'll steer clear this time, just becasue it is the fisrt awards. There is certainaly no value in the other runners.

National Movie Awards Animation - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
The Simpsons Movie 10/11
Shrek the Third 11/10
Happy Feet 8/1
Flushed Away 16/1

The two market leaders are by far the most likely winners. A tough category to call. I'm steering clear of this market, but if you forced by hand I'd side with Shrek the Third

National Movie Awards Comedy - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Borat: Cultural Learnings of American 1/25
Hot Fuzz 6/1
Mr Bean's Holiday 33/1
Night at the Museum 33/1

I think the market is wrong on this. Mr Bean and Night at the Museum are very unlikley winners, but I'd make it mush closer between Borat and Hot Fuzz. Both are aimed at similar demographics and did similar business at the Box Office. I'd make it 1/2 Borat, 2/1 Hot Fuzz. If ony I could lay Borat at 1/25! Instead, I'm having 1 pt on Hot Fuzz at 6/1

National Movie Awards Family - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 1/10
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 8/1
Spider-Man 3 8/1
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 33/1

I think that this market is wrongly priced up as well. Harry Potter took approx 10% more at the Box Office - they were the 2nd and 3rd biggest UK Box Office this year (after Casino Royale). Harry Potter may be affected by the fact it has a younger (non voting) audience. I'd make this 1/2 Harry Potter, 2/1 Pirates. I'd like to be able to lay Harry Potter at 1-10! Instead I'm having 1 pt on Pirates at 8/1

National Movie Awards Family Best Male - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Daniel Craig (Casino Royale) 2/1
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) 2/1
Daniel Radcliffe (Order of the Phoenix) 5/2
Tobey Maguire (Spider-Man 3) 6/1
Orlando Bloom (Pirates of the Caribbean) 14/1
Rupert Grint (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix) 20/1
Shia LaBeouf (Transformers) 20/1
Bruce Willis (Die Hard 4.0) 20/1

I tough category to call. You can rule out Willis (too old, low box office), LeBeouf (unknown, low box office), Grint (only role is to split the 'Harry' vote), Bloom (similar to Grint, but for the Pirates vote).

The other 4 all have chances, but my gut feel is that this will come down to Depp, Craig and Radcliffe. It's a tough call, but I'm coming down in favour of Craig, but not strong enough to have a bet.

National Movie Awards Family Best Female - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Keira Knightley (Pirates of the Caribbean) 11/8
Judi Dench (Casino Royale) 4/1
Kirsten Dunst (Spider-Man 3) 4/1
Eva Green (Casino Royale) 5/1
Emma Watson (Order of the Phoenix) 5/1
Megan Fox (Transformers) 8/1

I suspect that this will go to Keira Knightley - it is difficult to make a case for any of the others, other than perhaps Eva Green at 5/1 (Casino Royale could sweep the board). I just fear Eva Green is perhaps not quite well knwon enough. However at 11/8 I'm not quite tempted enough to have a bet on Ms Knightly.

P.S. I'd have had 4 pts on each of the 2 bets I had (Hot Fuzz, Pirates) but Skybet restricted me to 1 pts on each. (had to ring up for that, 0.01 pts availible online). Just checked other bets - on the Internet I'm know restricted to 1/100th of what other users are allowed as my max bets.