Sunday, January 27, 2008

Federer to win no Grand Slams in 2008 - 8pts - 11/2 - Skybet

Federer has been eliminated from the Australian Open and has the following 3 remaining Grand Slams in 2008 (listed in chronological order together with current win probabilities)

0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.5 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.6 US Open (Hard)

If they were independent events, this would give a probability of not winning any events of 0.75*0.5*.0.4=0.15 (i.e. an approx 11/2 chance). Howeve, these evenst are very much connected. With the continued threat of Nadal and the rise of Djokovic, Federer has mnore competition thatn ever before. Depending on his peformance in Grand Slam/Non Grand Slam events, the more likley probabilities are:

0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.4 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.4 US Open (Hard)

This gives a more accurate probability of 0.25 (i.e a 3/1 chance). I'm therefore having 8pts at Skybet at 11/2. N.B. They have now cut this price, but 9/2 is still availible at William Hill (which is still a fair price).

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Mendes FGS - Portmouth v Plymouth - 25/1 (Corals) - 1pt

Portsmouth are a 1-2 chance for this match, hence are by far the most likely to score the fist goal. Several Portsmouth players are away on Africa Cup of Nations duty. This wll give Mendes more chence to take a more attacking role and the possibility of taking free kicks. Mendes has yet to score this season, but I think today could be the day that he gets onto the scoresheet (and hopefully scores the first goal!).

Result: Mendes did not score -1pt

Rocky Baptiste - Anytime Goalscorer - Liverpool v Havant - 33/1 - Paddy Power

I think Baptiste (Havant) is a more than fair price at 33-1 to score at anytime in the Liverpool v Havant match. I can see Havant getting a consolation goal towards the end of the match (the bookies make them 5-1 to score in the match). If Havant score, it is likely to come from Baptiste - he is Havant's main striker. I've had 1.33 points (max allowed) at 33-1.

Result : Rocky Baptiste did not score (but his striking partner did!) -1.33 pts

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

David Beckham to play in Premier League in 2008 - 14-1 - Bluesq -1.5 pts

David Beckham is on a long term contract with LA Galaxy. However, Newcastle may be able to persuade David Beckham to move to Newcastle (it would help his England prospects). Although it would require signficant compenstaion to LA Galaxy, the sales of (Addidas) Newcastle shirts would probably pay for the transfer and make Newcastle a global brand.

If it makes financial sense, it is likely to happen ... there are 'paper' rumours that this is at least being investigated as an option.

Lescott Anytime Goalscorer (Everton v Chelsea) - 2pts - Paddy Power

Lescott has an excellent goals/games ratio (5 from 23 games in the Premiership) including 2 in the past 2 games. With John Terry missing, Chelsea look weaker defending set pieces. This is where Lescott is a particular threat (he nearly scored in the Chelsea v Everton 1st Leg). The 12-1 Paddypower are offering on him to score againt Chelsea in the Carling Cup semi final 2nd leg is a great price. (He is as short as 5-1 at Corals.) I'm having 2pts.

Result: Lescott did not score -2pts

Saturday, January 19, 2008

FHM Sexist Women - 1.5 pts Gemma Atkinson - 14/1 -

The previous top 3 of the FHM Sexiset women are as follows:

2007 - 1. Jessica Alba 2. Keeley Hazell 3. Eva Longoria
2006 - 1. Keira Knightley 2. Keeley Hazell 3. Scarlett Johansson
2005 - 1. Kelly Brook 2. Cheryl Tweedy 3. Angelina Jolie
2004 - 1. Britney Spears 2. Rachael Stevens 3. Beyonce Knowles
2003 - 1. Halle Berry 2. Holly Valance 3. Britney Spears
2002 - 1. Anna Kournikova 2. Rachel Stevens 3. Britney Spears

What is interesting is there are no repeat winners. In fact, only three women (Keeley Hazell, Rachael Stevens and Britney Spears) have appeared more than once in the top three. Winners tend to come from a combination of attractiveness and, just as importantly, publicity the previous year (FHM photoshoots and non FHM events e.g. popular films). Paddy Power has a full book. Those that are 10-1 and below are:

Jessica Alba 7 - 4
Keeley Hazell 3 - 1
Gemma Atkinson 6 - 1
Rihanna 8 - 1
Scarlett Johansson 10 - 1
Hayden Panettiere 10 - 1

I think Keeley Hazell should be the clear favourite - FHM and other publications give her much publicty. Keeley is fair value at 3-1. However, Bluesq quote 14-1 about Gemma Atkinson. I think her appearance in IACGMOOH may give her the publicity she needs - cetainly 6-1 is a much more accurate price. I'm having 1.5 pts (max allowed) at 14-1 at Bluesq.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Kicking King - Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2pts Win -33-1 - Betfred

Betfred have a special offer today where they are Non Runner No Bet on Cheltenham 08. I have taken advantage of this special offer to back Kicking King. He has been off with a long term injury as in shortly scheduled to return in the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse on January 20. If this goes well, he will then take his chance in the either the Red Mills or the Hennessy.

The owner has said 'it doesn't work out we won't make a fool of him'. To me that means if either of these races don't work out (and that is quite likely from such a serious injury, hence the 33-1 general price), Kicking King won't be run in the Gold Cup. Hence you get your money back.

If he runs well in both races and makes the starting line up, I can't seem him starting at 33-1 - I would think a single digit starting price is more likely. With the field 'cutting up', there will possibly as few as approx. 10 runners. Kicking King would be among a handful who would have the quality to win.

Result : Kicking King did not run - stake returned

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Rory Mcilroy to win the British Open In 2008 - 200/1 VCBet 1pt

Rory McIroy made an impressive appearance in the British Open in 2007, finishing top Amateur - he finished in overall 42nd place (was in 3rd place after Rnd 1.) If Rory McIlroy make substantial progress this year, I can see him starting at approx 33-1 for the British Open. 200-1 looks more than fair. He is currently trading at 100-1 on Betfair.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Paris Hilton to be jailed for DUI in 2008 - 12-1- 1pt

Paris Hilton has already been jailed one for driving offecnces, I think there is a very real possibility she will get caught DUI in 2008. The 12-1 at is a more than fair price - I'm having one point.

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Carlos Moya - 25-1 - 1pt E.W. Medibank International

Moya has made a typically fast start to the season, going out in the Semi-Final to Nadal in the last tournament (four match points not converted!). On a new surface at the Medibank, he has a reasonable chance of a strong showing. The new slower surface may not suit Blake and Hewitt, hence past strong past form can be discounted. This makes them false 2nd/2rd favourites.

I'm having 1pt E./W on Moya at the generally availible 25-1.

Result : Moya did not make the final -2pts

Luton v Liverpool - Luton to win (9/1) , Draw no bet - 2-pts

Luton have a strong home record (W8-D2-L1). Carling Cup perfomances have been imnpressive as well with wins against Charlton and Sunderland and an extra-time loss to Everton. It is though likely that Benitez may rest some of his stronger players (Torres, Gerrard). I think that the 9/2 on Luton (Draw, stakes returned) is a more than fair price.

Here is hoping for another FA Cup shock like those of yeasterday (e.g. Everton :) )

Result: Draw - Stake Refunded

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Everrton to win FA Cup 4pts E.W 25-1 Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes are taking a stance by going top priced about all the shorter priced teams in the FA Cup.

I think the market has misjudged Everton's chances. They have a strong squad, an execellent manager in David Moyes and have demonstrated their form this season. (They are going well in the Premiership, UEFA Cup and Carling Cup). Moyes is likely to field a strong side in the FA Cup and Everton are surely overpriced at 25-1.

They have a relativelty straightforward home tie against Oldham. I appreciate that the top 4 have dominated this competition for the past 12 years, but I although I am keen on trends I just can't make Everton 4 to 5 times the price of the big 4. For a start, Man Utd have a tricky away tie against Aston Villa and are I far from convinced Liverpool have an easy tie away to Luton.

I've had 4 pts E/W on Everton at 25/1.

Result: Everton went out in the 3rd Round -4 pts

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Boris Johnson - Mayor of London - 12pts - 7/4

The latest poll for Mayor Of London has the 2 leading candidates within 1% of each other. I believe that I am therefore effectively getting 7/4 on the toss of a coin. 12pts at Ladbrokes therefore seems a reasonable bet....