Federer has been eliminated from the Australian Open and has the following 3 remaining Grand Slams in 2008 (listed in chronological order together with current win probabilities)
0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.5 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.6 US Open (Hard)
If they were independent events, this would give a probability of not winning any events of 0.75*0.5*.0.4=0.15 (i.e. an approx 11/2 chance). Howeve, these evenst are very much connected. With the continued threat of Nadal and the rise of Djokovic, Federer has mnore competition thatn ever before. Depending on his peformance in Grand Slam/Non Grand Slam events, the more likley probabilities are:
0.25 French Open (Clay)
0.4 Wimbledon (Grass)
0.4 US Open (Hard)
This gives a more accurate probability of 0.25 (i.e a 3/1 chance). I'm therefore having 8pts at Skybet at 11/2. N.B. They have now cut this price, but 9/2 is still availible at William Hill (which is still a fair price).
3 comments:
i agree that federer has more competition than ever before but i think i'd still make him more than a 40% chance for wimbledon - any thoughts?
i would agree. I also think nadal is not playing as well as recent seasons. possible long term foot injury may be the cause
hi we are a group of betting tipsters who have got together and formed www.free-bets.co.uk.
Would you be up for a link exchange?
Cheers
matt
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