The key trial for this race is the Brightwells Handicap Hurlde at Cheletehnam on 26.01.08. Five Dream ran an impressive trial and is rightly one of the leading horses for this race. However, at 4-1, I do not think he is value. Instead, I have bakced the second horse in the race Mohayer at 25-1 at William Hill (5 pts win). He is weighted to reverse form with Five Dream and has the additional benefit of a 7lb claimer. (He has just crept into the race off bottom weight). Mohayer is a very consistent horse and trainer McCain is in execellent form.
Update: He is now been backed into 20-1 but this is still value - I'd make hime a 8-1 chance.
I also can't resist a bet on Caracciola from the Nick Henderson stable. Henderson has a great record in this race. With the withdrawl of Jack the Giant and Amarretto Rose, Caracciola is Henderson's leading hope. He is claearly suited by the race, as illustrated by a fine 4th last year. A 2nd in the Cesarewitch in the autumn shows he still resains his form. From a 'trends' perspective (e.g. age) he is all wrong, but so was the Henderson trained Geos when he won at 20-1. I've had 2pts win on Caracciola at 25-1 (Coral).
Update: Caracciola has been backed into 14-1 - probably a fair price now.
Result : Mohayer 4th -5pts
Result : Caracciola Unplaced -2pts
2 comments:
Here's a similar opportunity to one I pointed out to you a couple of years back Chris. Paddy Power have not updated their Grand national specials during racing and so you can still get 20/1 on Donald McCain to train the winner. His Cloudy Lane is now down to 12s follwing today's win so might be worth getting in the book. Wont get much on tho.
Thanks for the alert, I will definately back this and make a full post.
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