Sunday, May 25, 2008
With showers likely at Monaco during the race, outsiders have a chance of getting placed (and even winning). I'm therefore siding with Jenson Button who is one of the more talented in the rain. From eleventh place on the rid, he has the possibility of heavy fuelling and hence stopping one once for fuel (unlike many of thise in the top ten who will likely stop twice).
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Greece in Euro 2004 showed that a well organised, well managed team can succeed at Euro Football competitions, even without the most talented players. Russia (together with Crotia) eliminated Englad at the qualfying stage, showing that with manager Gus Hiddink they could potentially progress beyond the Group Stage - their Group (Group D) is one of the weaker groups. If they get to the last eight, a Euro 2008 final appearance is more than possible.
I've decided to lock in my profits on the US presidential election by backing Hillary Clinton at 17/1 for the Presidency at Betfair. I now have backed all the leading runners at double figure prices - the only runners I don't have going for me are 200-1+ in price so I'm *hoping* I have the field just about covered!
The make up of the RBC committee will meen that Clinton gets a significant proportion of the Florida/Michigan Delegates at the RBC Committe Meeeting on May 31st. (The RBC Committe will want to at at least partially seat the Florida/Michigan delegates). This will enble her to keep a low key/cost campaign running until the Democratic convention in August - she will be hoping that either something comes out about Obama's past or he says something ill-advised between now and then.
In addition, the longer she stys in the race, the more leverage she has to try to get the VP poisition (if she wants it) for a Presidential run in 2016.
The current standings of the Flat Jockeys Chamionship are detailed above (taken from http://www.jagb.co.uk):
I'm suprised to see the betting so lopsided. The current betting is:
Ryan Moore 4-11
Seb Sanders 5-1
Jamie Spencer 6-1
Neil Callan 16-1
Ryan Moore is the rightful favourite, but I don't think he should be as short at 4/11. The are always possibilities of long term injuries/bans or he could simply have an extended 'dry patch'. If any of these happen, I'd make Callan as likley as anyone else to take the title. His strike rate is similar to other jockeys and he gets more rides. I've therefore had the following bets:
2pts @ 25-1 Ladbrokes (Max allowed)
1pts @ 16-1 Stan James (Max allowed)
4pts @ 16-1 Victor Chandler
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Joe Cole has scored 7 goals from 29 appearances this season. He is likley to play wide right for Chelsea in the Champions League Final and is a more than fair price at 22/1 at Betfair for First Goalscorer (approx 14/1 to price at conventional bookies). I'm having 2pts.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
NASCAR moves to the Lowe's Motor Speedway in Charlotte for this and next weekend. This weekend is the non points scoring All Star's race with just 21 lining up and a winner takes all prize of $1million. Kyle Busch has been the class of NASCAR this year and his good form continues. He is second in practice and has put his car on pole for the race. Many bookmakers have cut him to 5-2, which is a fair price, but Boylesports still go 9-2. I'm having 4 points win on this.
After 5 races (from 18), the current standings in the Constructors Cha=mpionship are as follows:
01 Ferrari 63
02 BMW Sauber 44
03 McLaren-Mercedes 42
Ferrari are still clear favourites, but with 14 races to go it is still all to play for. Typically, the probability of teams increase/decrease by signficant amounts during the season. This is due to:
- teams making improvements to their cars at different rates
- there are DNFs during races
- tracks and temperature suit teams differently
I think Sportingbet are taking a chance at making McLaren 7/1. In the last race, McLaren were clearly making progress towards to Ferrari. The next two tracks (Monaco, Canada) should suit the McClaren. I've therefore had 4pts on McLaren at 7/1 at Sportingbet and 4pts on McLaren at 6/1 at Betfair (after commission). The Betfair bet will give me the opportunity to trade if, as I expect, McLaren make progress.
Kovalainen has beeen unlucky in the Drivers Championship so far. He is almost certainly too far behind to win the championship, but I can't resist 2pts on Kovalainen at 100/1. Just I shame I can't find anyone doing E/W betting on the Drivers Chmapionship!
01 Kimi Räikkönen 35
02 Felipe Massa 28
03 Lewis Hamilton 28
04 Robert Kubica 24
05 Nick Heidfeld 20
06 Heikki Kovalainen 14
Update: Post Monaco qualifying. I've had a further 2pts at 6/1 with Stan James on Mclaren
I think Majestic Roi is a very fair price at 16-1 for the Lockinge at Newbury today. She is one of only three runners who have Group One form (all of the last five winners has already won at Group One level). Three of the last five winners have been fillies (who have made the most of their 3lb allowance) - Majestic Roi is only one of two fillies in the race today. She won on her reapparance here last year, so clearly handles the track and has previously won over this trip in the Group 1 Sun Chariot.
The reason why she is this price is a disapointing re-appearance in the Dubai Duty Free Classic (her running in that race was not her real form - the trainer thinks the race came to early for her). The other concern is the ground - I'd have preferred it to be slighly firmer for her - all her previous wins have been on good to firm ground and it is only good ground today. I'm having 2pts win at 16-1 at Sportingbet.com
Darlington striker Tommy Wright was injured in their first leg 2-1 win v Rochdale. It is uncler who will replace him upfront (Pawel Abbot is atill injured), but there is a reasonable chance that it will be midfielder Micky Cummins. (He replaced Tommy Wright in the last match of the season when Tommy Wight was rested). Is this happens, the 7-1 on Micky Cummins is a great bet. If this doesn't happen and Micky Cummins plays in midfield, his 6/32 (9) strike rate makes this a fair bet. I've had 4pts on Mickey Cummmins at 7-1 for 'Anytime Goalscorer' at Paddy Power.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Having backed at 50-1 in January for the Premiership to be won on Goal Difference, I stand to win 50 pts. I've therefore laid off a proportion of this bet (I've laid 20pts on the Chelsea/Man Utd Win Double at 1.55 on Betfair, risking 11 pts of my profit). The best outcome is if both teams draw (40-1 chance) or lose (150-1 chance) in which case I win both bets!
NASCAR moves to the legendary Darlington race track this weekend. The "Lady in Black" as the track is known has been repaved and this weekend should see a fast and action packed race. Greg Biffle has an exceptional recent record at the track, winning twice in the last 3 years, and looks a good value bet at 20-1 each way with Stan James (who should be applauded for going EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). I tried to put on 2 points each way, but was restricted to 1 point EW.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
It is not often that you see 400/1 tips, but that is what the Racing Post have today in the shape of Tom Ford. An accomplished snooker player, he has a reasonable chance of qualifying for next year's World Chamionsip. If that happens, the 400/1 will be long since gone.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Anthony Kim won his fisrt tour event yesterday (the Wachovia Championship). This oustanding talented young golf player is now up to 16 in the World Golf Rankings. He has a very realistic chance of making the top 10 - I am sure Victor Chandler should be quoting a lot less than 10/1. I've tried to have 10pts at 10/1 but I've been restricted to 1pt. Boo. Hiss.
Sunday, May 04, 2008
The Democrats are odds on favourites to win the next US Presidential Election. I'm convinced that Obama will be the next Democratic candidate - Clinton is simnply too far beind on normal delegates for the superdelgates (who are currently breaking evenly) to make a difference. The big question is who will Obama pick as Vice Presdienial candidate? The consensus is that the hatred that has grown between Clinton and Obama during the contest makes a Obama/Clinton 'dream ticket' impossible. I strongly disagree. This with long memories (or students of history) will remember Kennedy/Johnson.
Clinton's attacks on Obama has ensured that the nomination race will, at a minimum, go to the end of the Primaries. The doubts that have been raised (by Clinton/McCain) re: Obama's experience would be assuaged by having Clinton as VP candidate. As the campagn has progressed, the voter 'bases' has become increasingly polarised (Clinton has made sure of that). What better way to ensure both groups of Democratic voters vote for you than by having both candiates on the ticket.
I'm convinced that Obama will offer the VP ticket to Clinton - always better to have you 'enemies' close to you. Will Clinton accept? If she is offered the VP ticket, I think there will be enormous prerssure from the Democratic Party on her to take it. If she declines the nomination, I don't think she will be forgiven by the Democratic hierachy (irrespective of the result in 2008). If she accepts the VP nomination, she will either become VP in 2008 (if Obama wins) or have a chance of running in 2012 (if he loses).
I'm having 4pts win on Clinton for VP in 2008 at William Hill - single figure prices at other bookies.
This is in addition to the 4pts I placed previosuly at 25/1
With comfortable victories on the way to the final, O'Sullivan has shown he is both in top form and, most importantly, has the correct state of mind for the World Championship. The bookmakers 'line' is an 18-10 win for O'Sullivan which I wouldn't disagree with.
However, he has a chance of destroying Carter and avoiding a final session. To avoid going to a final session O'Sullivan will need to restrict Carter to 6 frames or less before he reaches a winning 18 frames. I'd make this a 4-1 chance (not from stats., just a 'gut' feel.) The reason for thsi is a don't think that the score schanes are a 'norma' distribution - if O'Sullivan goes a large number of frames up, Carter could lose heart.
Friday, May 02, 2008
Those of you who follow my blog will know I backed Boris Johnson at 7/4 earlier this year. From the rumours (and other results last night) it appears highly likely that Boris Johnson will be the next Mayor of London. However, with a market like this, I prefer to lock in profits for an approx. 5-10% charge. Those of you who follow political betting with remember New Hampshire earlier this year when Obama lost at 1.01. Although Boris Johnson is liukley to win the 1st prefernces, I'm unsure how the 2nd preferences (from Padwick) will split, hence may caution. The time taken for the coiunt is also a concern (although this is probably just due to a high turnount).
Thursday, May 01, 2008
NASCAR moves to Richmond this weekend and the bet looks to be the in form Kyle Busch. He won last week at Talledega and has an excellent record at Richmond - 5 top 5's in his 6 runs. Pinnacle go a top priced 7.8-1 - this looks very big and I'm having 4 points on this.
I'm backing Westmead Lord to match the exploits of his half-brother Westmead Hawk and win back-to-back Greyhound Derbys. He is a remarkebly consisten greyhound and is said by his trainer Nick Savva to be physically stronger this year. A repeat of last years winning time of 28.47 would typically be enough to win this race.