Saturday, September 30, 2006

Miss World - Miss Slovenia - 100-1-1pts win

Miss Slovenia has the looks and personality to make a serious challenge for Miss World. She has the darker skin/dark hair that has been particulary successful recently. She is a member of Mensa, a successful business womain and President of a Peace foundation.

F1 - Toyota have podium possibilities in China Grand Prix.

I'm having 1pt on both Ralf Schumacher (50-1) and Janro Trulli (50-1) to grab a podium position. (2pts in total)

Everything depends on the weather tomorrow. If it rains, the Michelin runners will dominate the race (barring extraordinary circumstances, always a possibility in the rain). However, with dry conditions (or drying), things could be much closer. In this case, the Bridgestone clad Toyotas have podium possibilities. They were unlucky in (wet) qualifying. However, if the track is dry, China is a circuit you can pass on and the Toyotas could make their way through the field.

Of course, they will probably need some retirements during the race, but with potentially changing weather conditions this is more likely than usual.

Hungary shows what is possible in F1 when the rain comes down...

3.45 Newmarket - Fairmile - 2pts win 9-1

With stamina doubts for the fav. I belive he is there to be shot at. I'm backing Fairmile... the postives are as follows:

- Good draw (high, 32)
- 4 year old
- Lightly raced and good recent form (and improving)
- Will handle soft ground (has won on it)
- 1m 1f trip no problem as can stay 1m 2f

At a bigger prices, I like Illustrious Blue and Stagelight, but I'm sticking to just one bet.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Lay Gordon Brown at 1.5 for next Labour Leader

When Newsnight used pollster Chuck Luntz to show Cameron had the greatest appeal to votes, his price halved overnoight for the Conservative leadership (which he went onto win). With a poor Tory Conference speech, Davisd Davies nver recovered.

Tonight, Chuck Luntz will show on Newsnight what little appeal Gordon Bron have to voters and this coudl have a similar affect to the Cameron program.

Either way, this is a lay to back bet (this week) - I can't see anything improving the situation and, as a conseqence of this pogram, Brown could drift to 1.6/1.7.

(I'm already on John Reid at 18-1 for next Labour Leader who does well in the program... his price has havled to 9/1)

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Champ Cars - Road America - Preview

Sportingodds have made a serious 'rick' on this race. This have priced up AJ Allmendinger at 7-1 when other bookies have more accurately priced him at 5-2. I would have has a max. bet on this, but Sportingodds have limited my stake to 3pts win.

His low place on the grid (5th) is primariy dure to the Sat. qualfiying session being washed out.

Alex Tagliani is also good value at 20-1 at Stan James... I've had 1pts E/W. Sportingodds go a (baffling) 9-2... he is probably an approx 12-1 chance.

Position after 9 months.

Position after 9 months

Points staked on settled bets = 588.5
Points returned on settled bets= 822

Profit on settled bets = 28.4 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 50.5

Most of my Antpeost bets have fortunately come in... having locked in my profits on Ferrari, my only signficant Antepost bet left oustanding is on Sports Personality of the Year where I have 6 pts on @ 11/1 (now a 6/4 chance).

I'm hoping to add Man Utd at double figures at some point to add to my 15/1 on Arsenal and 18/l on Liverpool. I'm hoping to be neutral on Chelsea if they touch Evs at any point.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Ryder Cup Preview

I am absolutely convinced that Europe will win the Ryder Cup. For this reason, it is quite possible that the top US point scorer could could be won with a low figure.

I'm siding with JJ Henry at 33-1 at Ladbrokes. With top 10 finishes in his last 3 tournamnets, he is a man in form and has been selected to play on the first morning. A win then could mean that he gets to play in a good few Ryder Cup matches.

The tough weather will mean that is long driving is an asset. I'd make him a 12-1 chance.

I'm having 2pts E/W.

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Liverpool - Premiership - 18-1 (Betfair) - 4pts

I'm adding this bet to a portfolio I;m building up on the 'Big 4' in the Premiership. I now have the following:

Liverpool - 4pts 18-1
Arsenal - 4pts 15-1

I don't believe the gap between Man Utd/Chelsea vrs Arsenal/Liverpool is a large as the market suggests... this is a typical short term market over-reaction.

Update: Following Arsenal's win, they have shortened in price from 20-1 to 10-1 on Betfair. Nothing better illustrates the madness of markets.

Liverpool to beat Chelsea (5-1), Arsenal to beat Man Utd. (7-2) - Double (approx). 25-1 Betfair - 2pts

I've spent a little time looking at these matches and I think all results in each match are very possible. For that reason I'm having a speculative double on Liverpool/Arsenal.

I just can't see how Chelsea/Man Utd can be value at a shade of odds on/odds against.

Update: Extrabet seem to be displaying very strange prices on 'Anytime Goalscorer'. They are top price (often by a signficant margin)

Horse Racing Update - Ayr/Newbury - 6pts Loss

Across the 2 days of each of these meetings, I managed to lose 6pts. While not much in the scheme of things, by reducing the no. (and increasing the size) of my bets I maneged to miss out on the following winners:

In these races I had 'no bet' when I thought these were the values bets! Oh well.

Fri 4.30 Ayr - Geojimali - Silver Cup EP 33-1 (William Hill), SP 20-1 .... drawn on highest (with a draw a likely signifcant factor)
Sat. 2.25 Newbury - Captain Marvelous - Opened 25-1, SP of only 2 horse with Grp 1. entries.

In additon, 2 weeks before the Prix Niel, I had a strong fancy that Rail Link woudl win. It was approx 25-1 at for the Arc at the time.. it is now an 8-1 shot!

Sunday, September 10, 2006

IRL - (Partial) Cover on Championship

Those who raed my column regularly will know I backed Sam Hornish at 9/2 (10pts) at the start of the seaosn (March 2006). He has been as short as 1-8 at one point in the season (followed by a DNF!).

The betting on the IRL championship now with one race to go is:

Hornish, Sam 8/13
Castroneves, Helio 5/4
Wheldon, Dan 16/1
Dixon, Scott 28/1

As a cover, I've now had 4 pts on Wheldon and 2pts on Dixon. What I'm *hoping* is to be able to back Castroneves at 16/1 at some point during the race (when I will then have full cover).... the worst case scenario will be a Castroneves win from start to finish... I'll then have lost a further 6pts by attempting to cover!

NFL Superbowl - 2pts E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4 Arizona Cardinals - 40-1

Arizona had a strong defence last season but were let down by their inabilty to convert their offensive possesion into touchdowns. Consequenty, they finished a disappointing 5-11. The addition of running back Edgerrin James should go part way to resolving this issue. With Field Goal specialist Neil Rackers, Arizona could spring a suprise.

Saturday, September 09, 2006

2pts - 1st Goal Scorer - Darren Bent - 16-1 - Chelsea v Charlton

Darren Bent (Charlton) has scored 3 golas already this season (2 of them penalties). If Charlton are to take the lead against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, it is likely that he will score the goal. The 16-1 at Betdirect is more than fair.

1pt E/W Sami Hyppia 1st Goal Scorer (Bet Direct) 40-1 - 1/3 1,2,3,4

Sam Hyppia scores approx 5% of Liverpool's goals, therefore the 40-1 at BetDitewct is good value. Bet Direct also offer good E/W value going 1/3 odds 4 places.

Everton v Liverpool is often a tight game, but there is a reasonable possibility of 4 goals.

Blair Switch Project - 1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1), 1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).

This week has shown how true it is that a 'week is a long time in politics'. Therefore, how long is a year? Blair has stated he will stand down by, at the latest, Sept 2006. However, there a variety of situations where Blair will claim 'it is the the national interest' for him to stay beyond this date. Therefore I am having the follwoing bets at Betfair:

Blair Switch Project

1pt Oct - Dec. 2007 (100-1)
1pts 2008 Onwards (66-1).

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Ask - 2pts E/W - 20/1 St. Leger

Ask is proven over course, distance and likley ground. On official ratings he has a signifianct amount to find, but he is progressive and has a great chance of at least getting placed.

I think Sixties Icon is a poor value favourite at 5/4.


I remain convinced that Sixties Icon is a poor favourite. However, as well as Ask, I also like the chance of outsiders Mont Toile and Galient - both are 28-1 at Betfair. However, I am refraining from having any further investment in this race.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Macedonia v England - 2pts win Macedonia @ 14-1 (Betfair)

Macedonai have been underated in this match. They are a resonable side with good recnet draw with Holland. In the previous qualifying tournament against England there was a draw at St. Marys and a narrow loss at home.

Macedonia have a new manager with a good track record who is perfectly capable of engineeriung an upset.

(I also considered Macedonia HT/England FT at 33-1).

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Rugby Union - Worcester v Bristol - No Tryscorer, Draw Scorecast - 200-1.

The Racingpost states today that last year there were 3/132 games that had 'No Tryscorer' with the game finishing a Draw.

The Worcester v Bristol game is likely to a close fought, low try scoring game. The weather is rainy/windy and both sides have strong defences. In addition, with this being the fisrt game of the season, both sides could be cautious.

I'm having a speculative 0.5 pts at Bet365 on this scorecast at 200-1.

Friday, September 01, 2006

Rugby Union - Premierhsip - Top Tryscorer Market

Sale and Leicester are two of the ourights favourites for the Premierhsip. so I have selected a player from each of these sides to be overall Premiership top tryscorer (at Ladbrokes):

- 2pst E/W 25-1 Steve Hanley (Sale)
- 2pts E/W 80-1 Geordan Murphy (Leicester)