Wednesday, July 30, 2008

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational - Stewart Cink - 2pts Win -20/1

With the absence of Woods, the WGC-Bridgestone held at Firestine has a much more open feel about it. My fancy Stewart Cink won this touranment in 2004 and lost in a playoff in 2006 to Woods. Cink has been in outstanding form this season, with 1 win (the Travelers Championship), 2 2nds and 2 3rds including the Masters). He is especially strong on Par 4's of which there are (unusally) 12 this weekend, rather than the usual 10. Now he has broken his duck, I'm having 2 pts win on Cink at 20/1

Sunday, July 27, 2008

USA to win most Medals in 2008 Olympics - 20pts @ 6/5

In Atlanta 2004 the Olympic Medals Total Tally for the top 3 countries was as follows:

Gold Silver Bronze Total

1. United States 36 39 27 102
2. Russia 27 27 38 92
3. China 32 17 14 63

I am very suprised to see that 11/10 at William Hill/Betfair is availible on USA. Home advantge will count somewhat, (as well as the desire of the China state apparatus to win), but for China to overturn a 39 medal deficit would be an incredible achievement. I believe that they would need to make signficant improvements in both swimming and athletics (where the most medals are), and there is no indication of this. I actually think that Russia may still retain 2nd place.

N.B. Don't make the mistake that a China medal win = a USA model loss (i.e. a net 20 medal swing is all that is required - in many cases the medals that China are targetting are not currently held by USA.

I've reviewed other people's total medal predictions and they vary from close between China/USA or a USA win. Interestingly, the China/USA 'close' predictions come from those looking at 'generic' factors (e.g. population size, per captia income etc.) Those predicting a USA win looked at most recent World Championships in the events. I believe the latter to be more accurate methodology.

I've therefor at 20pts on Betfair at 6/5 on USA and 1pt at 20/1 on Russia to win Most Medals. N.B. Don't confuse this matket with most Gold medals - in this latter market, I think China have a very good chance of winning.

SPOTY : Market Update

With the Olymnpics approaching, I have invested further on this market:

Additional 3pts on Sotherton at 20-1 (Will Hill) (adding to my 4pts at 33-1 earlier in the year).

Sotherton has sucessfully come through the last trials (with only a minor injury scare, due to mis-set hurdles!). She did enough to win the 4 event competiton, and goes into the Olympic Heptathlon as one of the favourites. William Hill have quoted her at (long) 10-1 for Gold in the event (hence why they are biggest at 20-1 for SPOTY of the year.) A Gold in this event would make her favourite for SPOTY (unless Tom Daley wins the diving).

2pts on Phillips Idowu (14-1) (Canbet)

He is now a slight odds-on chance to win the Triple Jump Gold. If neither Sotherton nor Daley win a gold, and Idowu wins a Gold I think SPOTY this year will be a head-to-head between Lewis Hamilton and Phillips Idowu. Hamilton is a very short price at 6-4 for SPOTY as he would almost certainly need to win the F1 championship to win SPOTY and even this may not be enough against a winning Olympian. The cyclists are also underpriced - the votes for them are likely to be split.

QPR to underperform against market expectations

There still seems to be a belief that the new(ish) owners of QPR plan to invest signficant amounts of money into QPR i.e do a 'Chelsea'. This can be the only reason why QPR are 1st/2nd favourites for the 2008-09 Championship. However, transfer activity this summer has made it clear the owners intend to take a longer term approach.

QPR improved their performnance in the 2nd half of last season to take them into mid-table position. A repeat of this performance would make them likely to finish approximately 7th-8th this season.

Skybet have launched a who will finsih bottom on the handicap market. The prices for this equate to the outright prices (inverted). I've therefore had 4pts at 14-1 on QPR to 'win' this market (missed the 18-1 whilst checking facts on QPR, damm.). A 7th/8th position *may* be enough to win this bet.

The full list of teams (and their handicaps) are listed below.

QPR Scr Watford +9 Coventry +19
Birmingham scr Bristol City +12 Sheff Wed +19
Reading +3 Charlton +12 Burnley +22
Wolves +3 Cardiff +15 Preston +22
Derby +4 Notts Forest +19 Doncaster +24
Sheff Utd +6 Swansea +19 Plymouth +24
Crystal Palace +7 Norwich +19 Barnsley +28
Ipswich +9 Southampton +19 Blackpool +28

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Webber to win qualifying - German Grand Pix - 2pts E/W 1/5 1.2.3

In the first half of the 2008 F1 season, Webber has shown excellent qualifying pace, including a 2nd last time at the British Grand Prix. With rain a strong possibility in Germany this weekend, the generally availiblw 80/1 looks too big on Webber for qualifying. I'm having 2 pts W/W

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Open Golf - Winner to be leader after every round - 50/1 Paddy Power - 1.5 pts

Paddy Power have a generous price of 50/1 on the winner of he Open Golf being the leader after every round. I'd make this much shorter, maybe a 16/1 chance. Trevor Immelman managed to complete this in the 2008 Masters. Paddy Power are a much shorter price (13/2) on the fisrt round leader to go on to win the tournamnet. I think that if a player leads the 1st round and also wins the tourmanet, he would be reasonably likley to lead after Rnd 2 and Rnd 3 as well.